March Madness - Post Mortem

It's been a few days since the final game, and I've manged to pay everyone off.  It was another successful tournament and pool.  I think I had more fun this year than I did last year, when I was seriously considering quitting this forever because of some particularly ghastly participants made my life miserable.  A lot of that was due to the fact that I was able to streamline a lot of the processes that I use.  I think having people send me their brackets was a really time saver for me.  I think next year I'll make the on-line pool sites available, but require that people send me brackets.  That also makes it easier for me to make an accounting of who has paid and who hasn't.

Other than the run for Kentucky, this was the kind of year I really like.  A lot of pretty big upsets (Mercer, Stephen F. Austin, Dayton, Baylor, Stanford, etc.).  I also like that the Final 4 was totally unpredictable.  I've run my bracket randomizer 10,000 times and not once did it come up with that Final 4.

I especially like it because it rewarded the people that took UConn and to a lesser extent Kentucky.  Picking those teams to the Championship game took some real stones, even if it the downside is throwing away $5.  A lot of people didn't take that chance.

I also like that the 4 people that won money had never won anything in any of my pools.  I'm not sure if this is a coincidence or not, but 3 of the 4 people that won money weren't from California.  I'm sending money to Wisconsin, Connecticut and North Carolina this year.  What that means is that all my California friends need to step up their game.  They are getting their lunch eaten by the rest of the country.

I went over who won what last time, but here's a refresher for anyone that didn't read it:

1. Ray W. #3
2. John M. #1
3. Miguel D.
4. Mark N. #1

For those that were curious, John M. #2 clinched last place by one point.  I think I used to give out money for that in the past, but I forgot about it.  If I do it next year, I won't announce it until after the start of the tournament.  I announced it one year before the tournament, and 6 people gunned for the last spot.  That's no fun.

Now a trip down memory lane:

Leader after day 1: Robert H. #2 (16/16) finished T96
Leader after first round: Chad L. #2 (28/32) finished T5
Leader after 2nd round: Ray W. #1 (51/64) finished T160
Leader after Elite 8: Ryan H. (69/96) finished T13 & Brent E.#6 (69/96) finished T66.
Leader after Final 4 decided: Mark N. #1 (83/128) finished 4th.

What I think this can tell you is not to get too overexcited if you are in the lead, or get too down if you are not in the lead.  There's always more games to come.

Here are some other fun stats:

Highest finish for a woman: T17 (Ally H., Marissa W. #2)
Highest finish for someone I've actually met: Chris M. #3 (T8)
Highest finish for someone in my family: Michelle L. #2 (T21)
Highest finish for someone that was eliminated from 1st at the Sweet 16: Ryan G., Terry F. #1, William G. #1 (T32)
Highest finish for someone that was eliminated from all places at the sweet 16: James K. (50)

Number of people that won more points than they lost: 2
Average  number of points won: 62.81
Median number of points won: 64
Mode number of points won: 68 (14 people)

I had the exact same number of entrants this year as I did last year, so here was last years stats:

Number of people that won more points than they lost: 61
Average  number of points won: 72.25
Median number of points won: 65
Mode number of points won: 110 (8 people)

The numbers last year were helped greatly by the overall #1 (Louisville) winning it all.

Anyway, I had a fun time this year.  There were no major issues and there were plenty of fun games to keep things interesting.  I'm already looking forward to next year.

Until then.......

Klei


BTW: I really enjoy getting emails and notes from people.  It's nice to know that people appreciate the work I put into it.

Final Ranks

Since there's only 1 game left, and only 3 people that can points, I can post the Final rankings.

If Connecticut wins:

1.: Ray W. #3

2.: John M. #1

3.: Miguel D.

4.: Mark N. #1

5.: Josiah T. #4

5.: Zachary V.

5.: Chad L. #2

8.: Scott K. #1

8.: Chris M. #3

10.: Jack K. #1

10.: Larry G. #1

10.: Andrzej R.

13.: Ben J. #3

13.: Joe K. #2

13.: Brent S. #1

13.: Ryan H.

17.: Scott Hass.

17.: Ally H.

17.: Jay K.

17.: Marissa W. #2

21.: Michelle L. #2

21.: Gene B. #1

21.: Mike L. #1

21.: David S. #3

21.: Damien R. #1

21.: Ron B.

21.: Greg F.

28.: Dan S.

28.: Brent E. #3

28.: Dominic M.

28.: Daisy N. #5

32.: Terry F. #1

32.: Brent E. #1

32.: William G. #1

32.: Brent E. #4

32.: Ryan G.

32.: Peter J. #3

32.: Scott Her. #1

32.: Josiah T. #2

32.: Rich F.

32.: Klei R. #1

42.: Gary M. #2

42.: Mike San #2

42.: Carrie P. #3

42.: Mike L. #2

42.: Andrea A.

42.: Taima B. #1

42.: Larry G. #2

42.: Howard S. #3

50.: Jay H. #2

50.: James K.

50.: Chris M. #1

50.: Larry G. #4

50.: Jay H. #3

50.: Peter J. #2

50.: Erica A.

50.: Brett K. #1

50.: James G. #1

50.: Mason A. #1

60.: Justin G.

60.: Daisy N. #4

60.: Steve D.

60.: Peter J. #1

60.: Mike L. #3

60.: Gary W.

66.: Brent S. #2

66.: Dimitris M. #5

66.: Roth W.

66.: Matt J. #1

66.: Brent E. #6

71.: Brad R.

71.: Brent E. #5

71.: Esteban D.

71.: Becky H.

71.: Kirt R.

71.: Stephanie P. #2

71.: Gutless Dimitris

71.: Josh S. #2

71.: Stan C. #2

71.: Daryl J.

71.: Daisy N. #1

71.: Stephanie P. #4

71.: Marc R. #2

71.: Scott K. #2

85.: Howard S. #4

85.: Chun W. #1

85.: Ben W.

85.: Chun W. #4

85.: Sarah G.

85.: April K.

85.: John E.

85.: Joseph H.

85.: Damien R. #3

85.: Todd K. #2

85.: Scott Her. #2

96.: Amelia H.

96.: Marc R. #1

96.: Luis B. #1

96.: Ben J. #1

96.: Robert H. #2

96.: Matt N.

96.: Hal R. #2

96.: Luis B. #2

104.: Carl B.

104.: Christina S. #3

104.: Peter J. #5

104.: Brent E. #2

104.: James G. #2

104.: Eric V.

104.: Damien R. #2

104.: Chun W. #3

104.: Luis B. #3

104.: Chun W. #2

104.: Tomas L. #1

104.: Ray W. #4

104.: Hal R. #1

117.: Stephanie P. #5

117.: Chris L. #1

117.: Jack K. #2

117.: Mike San #1

117.: Taima B. #2

117.: Tomas L. #4

117.: Jim W.

117.: Christina S. #5

125.: Joe K. #1

125.: Todd K. #1

125.: Josiah T. #5

125.: Chris M. #2

125.: David S. #1

125.: Julie S.

125.: Brett W.

125.: Carrie P. #1

125.: Michelle L. #1

125.: Brett K. #2

125.: Paul W.

136.: Mason A. #2

136.: William G. #4

136.: Hutch H. #2

136.: Steve M. #2

136.: Tomas L. #3

136.: Christina S. #1

142.: Irene L. #2

142.: Adam E. #2

142.: Terry F. #2

142.: Tim N.

142.: Bosun S.

142.: Gary M. #1

142.: William G. #3

142.: Jeff D.

142.: Karen C. #2

151.: Jim D. #2

151.: Ray W. #2

151.: Karl K.

151.: Matt J. #4

151.: Carrie P. #4

151.: Josiah T. #1

151.: Virginia L. #1

151.: KenPom

151.: Stephanie P. #3

160.: Meredith R.

160.: Robert H. #1

160.: Dan D. #2

160.: Klei - Alex O.

160.: Dennis R. #3

160.: Virginia L. #2

160.: Ray W. #1

167.: David S. #2

167.: Steve H.

167.: Abel R.

167.: Daisy N. #2

167.: Christina S. #6

167.: Mike Sm.

167.: Amos W.

167.: Josh S. #1

175.: Josiah T. #3

175.: Tomas L. #2

175.: Christina S. #4

175.: Missy W. #2

175.: Alex T.

175.: Howard S. #2

181.: Eric C.

181.: Sue L.

181.: Howard S. #1

181.: Jim D. #1

181.: William G. #2

181.: Jay H. #1

187.: Daisy N. #3

187.: Sally R.

187.: Dan D. #1

187.: Jack K. #4

187.: Mason A. #3

187.: Josh C.

193.: Marissa W. #1

193.: Jeff W.

193.: Steve M. #3

193.: Chad C.

193.: Stan C. #1

193.: Tracy V.

193.: Matt J. #3

200.: Missy W. #1

200.: Steve M. #1

200.: Matt J. #2

200.: Shawn S.B.

200.: Kansas C.

200.: Mark N. #2

200.: Dimitris M. #2

200.: Michelle L. #4

200.: Todd K. #3

200.: Mason A. #4

210.: Klei R. #2

210.: Stephanie P. #1

210.: Christina S. #2

213.: Carrie P. #2

213.: Kyle V.

213.: Adam E. #1

213.: Hutch H. #1

217.: Dimitris M. #3

217.: Todd K. #4

217.: Michelle L. #3

217.: Karen C. #3

221.: Chris L. #2

221.: Dennis R. #1

221.: Karen C. #1

221.: Ben J. #2

225.: Larry G. #3

226.: Ava S.

226.: Marissa W. #3

226.: Dimitris M. #4

226.: Brian G.

230.: Bhav R.

230.: Peter J. #4

232.: Jack K. #3

233.: Steve M. #4

233.: Chris L. #3

233.: Chris M. #4

233.: Chad L. #1

233.: Amy D.

233.: Irene L. #1

239.: Dennis R. #2

239.: David S. #4

241.: Gene B. #2

242.: Marissa W. #4

243.: Klei R. - RND

244.: Kevin W.

244.: Elena S.

246.: John M. #2

If Kentucky wins:

1.: Josiah T. #4

2.: Ray W. #3

3.: Miguel D.

4.: Mark N. #1

5.: Zachary V.

5.: Chad L. #2

7.: Scott K. #1

7.: Chris M. #3

9.: Jack K. #1

9.: Larry G. #1

9.: Andrzej R.

12.: Ben J. #3

12.: Joe K. #2

12.: Brent S. #1

12.: Ryan H.

16.: Scott Hass.

16.: Ally H.

16.: Jay K.

16.: Marissa W. #2

20.: Michelle L. #2

20.: Gene B. #1

20.: Mike L. #1

20.: David S. #3

20.: Damien R. #1

20.: Ron B.

20.: Greg F.

27.: Dan S.

27.: Brent E. #3

27.: Dominic M.

27.: Daisy N. #5

31.: Terry F. #1

31.: Brent E. #1

31.: William G. #1

31.: Brent E. #4

31.: Ryan G.

31.: Peter J. #3

31.: Scott Her. #1

31.: Josiah T. #2

31.: Rich F.

31.: Klei R. #1

41.: Gary M. #2

41.: Mike San #2

41.: Carrie P. #3

41.: Mike L. #2

41.: Andrea A.

41.: Taima B. #1

41.: Larry G. #2

41.: Howard S. #3

49.: Jay H. #2

49.: James K.

49.: Chris M. #1

49.: Larry G. #4

49.: Jay H. #3

49.: Peter J. #2

49.: Erica A.

49.: Brett K. #1

49.: James G. #1

49.: Mason A. #1

59.: Justin G.

59.: Daisy N. #4

59.: Steve D.

59.: Peter J. #1

59.: Mike L. #3

59.: Gary W.

65.: John M. #1

65.: Brent S. #2

65.: Dimitris M. #5

65.: Roth W.

65.: Matt J. #1

65.: Brent E. #6

71.: Brad R.

71.: Brent E. #5

71.: Esteban D.

71.: Becky H.

71.: Kirt R.

71.: Stephanie P. #2

71.: Gutless Dimitris

71.: Josh S. #2

71.: Stan C. #2

71.: Daryl J.

71.: Daisy N. #1

71.: Stephanie P. #4

71.: Marc R. #2

71.: Scott K. #2

85.: Howard S. #4

85.: Chun W. #1

85.: Ben W.

85.: Chun W. #4

85.: Sarah G.

85.: April K.

85.: John E.

85.: Joseph H.

85.: Damien R. #3

85.: Todd K. #2

85.: Scott Her. #2

96.: Amelia H.

96.: Marc R. #1

96.: Luis B. #1

96.: Ben J. #1

96.: Robert H. #2

96.: Matt N.

96.: Hal R. #2

96.: Luis B. #2

104.: Carl B.

104.: Christina S. #3

104.: Peter J. #5

104.: Brent E. #2

104.: James G. #2

104.: Eric V.

104.: Damien R. #2

104.: Chun W. #3

104.: Luis B. #3

104.: Chun W. #2

104.: Tomas L. #1

104.: Ray W. #4

104.: Hal R. #1

117.: Stephanie P. #5

117.: Chris L. #1

117.: Jack K. #2

117.: Mike San #1

117.: Taima B. #2

117.: Tomas L. #4

117.: Jim W.

117.: Christina S. #5

125.: Joe K. #1

125.: Todd K. #1

125.: Josiah T. #5

125.: Chris M. #2

125.: David S. #1

125.: Julie S.

125.: Brett W.

125.: Carrie P. #1

125.: Michelle L. #1

125.: Brett K. #2

125.: Paul W.

136.: Mason A. #2

136.: William G. #4

136.: Hutch H. #2

136.: Steve M. #2

136.: Tomas L. #3

136.: Christina S. #1

142.: Irene L. #2

142.: Adam E. #2

142.: Terry F. #2

142.: Tim N.

142.: Bosun S.

142.: Gary M. #1

142.: William G. #3

142.: Jeff D.

142.: Karen C. #2

151.: Jim D. #2

151.: Ray W. #2

151.: Karl K.

151.: Matt J. #4

151.: Carrie P. #4

151.: Josiah T. #1

151.: Virginia L. #1

151.: KenPom

151.: Stephanie P. #3

160.: Meredith R.

160.: Robert H. #1

160.: Dan D. #2

160.: Klei - Alex O.

160.: Dennis R. #3

160.: Virginia L. #2

160.: Ray W. #1

167.: David S. #2

167.: Steve H.

167.: Abel R.

167.: Daisy N. #2

167.: Christina S. #6

167.: Mike Sm.

167.: Amos W.

167.: Josh S. #1

175.: Josiah T. #3

175.: Tomas L. #2

175.: Christina S. #4

175.: Missy W. #2

175.: Alex T.

175.: Howard S. #2

181.: Eric C.

181.: Sue L.

181.: Howard S. #1

181.: Jim D. #1

181.: William G. #2

181.: Jay H. #1

187.: Daisy N. #3

187.: Sally R.

187.: Dan D. #1

187.: Jack K. #4

187.: Mason A. #3

187.: Josh C.

193.: Marissa W. #1

193.: Jeff W.

193.: Steve M. #3

193.: Chad C.

193.: Stan C. #1

193.: Tracy V.

193.: Matt J. #3

200.: Missy W. #1

200.: Steve M. #1

200.: Matt J. #2

200.: Shawn S.B.

200.: Kansas C.

200.: Mark N. #2

200.: Dimitris M. #2

200.: Michelle L. #4

200.: Todd K. #3

200.: Mason A. #4

210.: Klei R. #2

210.: Stephanie P. #1

210.: Christina S. #2

213.: Carrie P. #2

213.: Kyle V.

213.: Adam E. #1

213.: Hutch H. #1

217.: Dimitris M. #3

217.: Todd K. #4

217.: Michelle L. #3

217.: Karen C. #3

221.: Chris L. #2

221.: Dennis R. #1

221.: Karen C. #1

221.: Ben J. #2

225.: Larry G. #3

226.: Ava S.

226.: Marissa W. #3

226.: Dimitris M. #4

226.: Brian G.

230.: Bhav R.

230.: Peter J. #4

232.: Jack K. #3

233.: Steve M. #4

233.: Chris L. #3

233.: Chris M. #4

233.: Chad L. #1

233.: Amy D.

233.: Irene L. #1

239.: Dennis R. #2

239.: David S. #4

241.: Gene B. #2

242.: Marissa W. #4

243.: Klei R. - RND

244.: Kevin W.

244.: Elena S.

246.: John M. #2

I just noticed that if UConn wins, John M. #1 will get 2nd place, and John M. #2 will be dead last.  That's quite a spread.  Amazing.....

NCAA pool - Championship edition

If you had told me at the start of the tournament that a #7 seed would be playing a #8 seed for the championship, I might have chuckled a little and then said, "Feel free to enter that bracket" thinking that it would really just mean more money for whoever winds up winning (hopefully me).  As it turns out, that is exactly the game we are getting Monday night.

To my credit, I remember a conversation with Karl K. before the tournament where I said that I thought Connecticut was an underrated team.  Unfortunately for me, I didn't have the conviction to take them to do anything as others did.

This has been a pretty strange year in the tournament.  I probably have told people over and over again that there are really 2 ways to win this thing.  Take a favorite (like Florida) and hope you can do enough in the early rounds to separate yourself from all the other people that take the same favorite, or take a team hardly anyone else is taking and pray like hell that they win it all, because if they do, you are guaranteed to win something.  It looks like the latter is going to take the day this year.

How unpredictable has the tournament been this year?  Out of 264 entrees, 3 of them have the chance to earn any more points.  2 people took Connecticut and 1 person took Kentucky.  That also means that less than 1% of all our entries are going to get the Champion right.

Also, if you had told me at the beginning of the tournament that someone could finish in the money without getting the champion right, I think I would have conceded that it was possible, but pretty unlikely.  That also is going to happen this time around.

Unfortunately for me, I don't really care at all about either team in the game.  I think I am more going to root for Connecticut by default because of my long-standing hatred for Kentucky, but not with any particular conviction.

Because there are only 3 people that can still get points, that also means that there are only 3 people that really care about what happens in the finals.  More on that in a second.  Most of you don't care about this, but I do - there are no need for tiebreakers for any of the top 4 spots.  That's always nice when things work out like that.

Here's how things work out:

Our current leader in the points is Ray W. #3 with 95.  He also happens to have Connecticut as the champion, so obviously, if Connecticut wins, he will win the pool.  As it turns out, since he is the current leader in points and only 1 person took Kentucky to win it all, if Kentucky wins it all, Ray W. #3 will be passed in the standings and receive 2nd place.  It's a lot of money between the two, but I don't think anyone is going to cry too hard for Ray W. #3 at this point.  I personally would be happy to get my entree fees back at this point.  Good job for you, Ray.  I'm guessing that you are a UConn alum or something like that.  Either that, or you are amazingly prescient.  Either way, you picked UConn to win it all, and you are going to be richly rewarded for that.

There are two other people for whom the game on Monday means a great deal.  If the team they picked wins, they are in the money.  If they lose, they get nothing (like the rest of us).

Josiah T. #4 was the sole person to take Kentucky to win the whole thing.  He has been lingering way in the back of the pack for quite a while, being as low as 229th place after the first round (20/32).  He didn't even crack the top 100 until the Final 4 was decided, and even then he only snuck in at 92nd in the standings.  With the 16 points today for Kentucky. however, he moves all the way up to 4th in the standings.  That's pretty good, but unless Kentucky can win one more game, all that moving up will be for naught, and Josiah will be shut out.  If Kentucky wins, he will overtake Ray for 1st and win the pool.  It's an all-or-nothing proposition for Josiah.  I have nothing against you Josiah, but I really, really don't like Kentucky.  I hope they lose - but not because you don't deserve anything.  You were the only person to have the guts to take them as far as you did, and you should be proud of that.

The other person that is in an all-or-nothing situation is John M. #1.  He is the other person to pick Connecticut to win it all.  Sadly, he had Connecticut over Creighton in the Final game, so he is currently way back (relatively) in the standings despite all the points he got from UConn.  The 16 points tonight were enough to move him into 65th place.  John has had a pretty remarkable run in the tournament so far.  He had a brief run of good luck on Day 2, going 14/16 to move from 209th to 61st in the rankings.  Sadly, his tournament has taken a nose dive from there as he went 3/8 the next day and 3/8 the day after that to sink back to 206th place after the Sweet 16.  Things only got worse,  as the first day of the Elite 8's, he managed an 0/4 performance to sink all the way to 236th in the standings. From then on it's been all UConn.  But that's going to be enough to get him into 2nd if they actually wind up winning.  He is totally living the option 2 that I mentioned earlier.  If you pick a champion that not many are, you have life as long as they do.  Picking the Champion makes up for a LOT of bad picking in earlier rounds.  So, if UConn manages to win, John M. #1 will get 2nd place (Ray W. would win - obviously).

That brings us to 3rd and 4th.  They are already locked up.  As I mentioned earlier, only 3 people can actually win points, so 3rd and 4th places are already locked in.  The two winners there can put there feet up on Monday night and enjoy their winnings.

3rd place this year will go to Miguel D.  Miguel made his big move on one day during the Elite 8 where he nailed MSU, UConn, Kentucky and Michigan to move from 115th to 11th.  From there, he rode Kentucky (his only correct Final 4 team) into the Championship game where he had them losing to Michigan State.  He can't get any more points, but that last 16 by Kentucky moves him into 2nd overall in points with 91.  He will get passed in the standings by at least one team on Monday, so that locks him into 3rd place.  Congratulations to Miguel D.  Members of his family have won pools run by me in the past, so I continue to be impressed by how well they pick.  It must be something in the genes.

As for 4th place, that place is locked into Mark N. #1, despite the fact that he doesn't have either Kentucky or Connecticut in the Championship game.  He has Wisconsin over Florida.  He has been in the top 10 in points since the Elite 8, and nailing both Florida and Wisconsin into the Final 4 was enough to put him just a little bit ahead of the pack.  In fact, he edged Zachary V. and Chad L. #2 by just one point.  For comparison here's the points for Mark N. #1 after each round: (25, 47, 67, 83).  For Zachary V. (22, 46, 66, 82) and Chad L. #2 (28, 50, 66, 82).

It's total heartbreak for Chad L. #2 as he was in the top 15 in points throughout the tournament, and while it was Florida that technically knocked him out of the money, the main difference between Chad L. #2 and Mark N. #1 was the San Diego State / Arizona game.  Those 4 points put Mark N. #1 1 point ahead of Chad L. #2.  Ouch...  I hope Chad can find it in his heart to forgive San Diego State for that one.

So, here's a recap:

If Connecticut wins:

1. Ray W. #3
2. John M. #1
3. Miguel D.
4. Mark N. #1

If Kentucky wins:

1. Josiah T. #4
2. Ray W. #3
3. Miguel D.
4. Mark N. #1

For those that are curious about how much money is at stake here, I said in the initial post that the payouts would be 50/25/15/10.  Given that we had 264 entries, that means 264*5 = $1320.00.

So:

1st: $660
2nd: $330
3rd: $198
4th: $132

I also wanted to send a special shout out to Kansas C..  I got your payment in the mail tonight, and I really appreciate the note and the tip.  I pay out everything I take in, so I am essentially doing this for free.  It means a lot to me when people recognize the effort.

That's it for me.  For those interested, I am planning on watching the game Monday night at Champion's Field in Tierrasanta if anyone wants to stop in for a drink.  I think I'll wear my Kentucky t-shirt in a desperate attempt to jinx them.

Good luck to those still alive!!!