NCAA Bowl Pool - Fat lady walking off the stage edition

Today was the decisive day for the Bowl Pool.  With one game to go, 1st and 2nd place have been decided.  The Championship game essentially means nothing in terms of the payouts.  It might mean something to Ash D., Kevin F. #2 & Ray R, who all took Clemson to win it all, but for the vast majority that took Alabama, there will be little deviation between what the rankings look like now and what they will look like a week from today.

Somewhat surprisingly, 1st place was decided before 2nd place this year.  As I mentioned in the last post, if Wisconsin and Florida both win, Mark ESPN will win the pool.  Both of those things happened, so Mark ESPN won the pool.  It was a little bittersweet for me as I really wanted Western Michigan to win.  That game knocked the formidable Brent E. #1 & #2 out of the money, leaving a potential Iowa miracle the only thing keeping Pete J. #1's 1st place hopes alive.  After Florida sealed the win, Mark ESPN was the winner with 3 games to go.  There was no way for anyone to catch him for 1st.

That still left 2nd place up for grabs, coming down to 2 people, Pete J. #1 & Nick B.  Nick B. needed a USC win to stay alive in the Rose Bowl.  After a back and forth game there, USC finally won the game, setting up a winner take all showdown in the Sugar Bowl.

In the Sugar Bowl, the difference maker was the points picked by each player.  Both people chose Oklahoma, but Pete J. #1 had then for 22 points, and Nick B. had them for 10.  If Oklahoma win, Pete J. #1 would get 2nd place.  If Auburn won, Nick B. would take it.

Now that the Oklahoma victory is sealed, that means that Pete J. #1 took 2nd, although he had to sweat it out a little.  He could have win with a Penn State victory, but he get 2nd place all the same.  Congratulations Pete J. #1.  I know he's been entering my pools for a long time, and it's nice to send some money to (I think) the only person that enters from Hawaii every year.

Anyway, here are the points standings as of tonight......

1. Mark ESPN: 647 (-214)

2. Pete J. #1: 620 (-241)

3. Brent E. #1: 617 (-244)

4. Marc S.: 613 (-248)

5. Nick B.: 612 (-249)

6. Dave M.: 602 (-259)

7. Brent E. #2: 596 (-265)

8. Scott Her. #2: 592 (-269)

9. Stephanie P.: 591 (-270)

10. Roth W.: 582 (-279)

11. Josiah T. #2: 580 (-281)

12. Mike W.: 579 (-282)

13. Mason A.: 571 (-290)

14. Mike S.: 568 (-293)

14. Hal R. #1: 568 (-293)

16. Adam E.: 567 (-294)

17. Michelle L. #2: 563 (-298)

18. Tim N.: 560 (-301)

19. Brent S.: 557 (-304)

20. Hal R. #2: 556 (-305)

21. Hutch H.: 551 (-310)

22. Matt N.: 547 (-314)

23. Michelle L. #1: 541 (-320)

24. Freitag B.: 539 (-322)

25. Ray R.: 533 (-328)

26. Damien R.: 532 (-329)

27. Kevin F. #1: 529 (-332)

28. Marc R.: 527 (-334)

29. Pete J. #2: 524 (-337)

29. Scott Her. #1: 524 (-337)

29. Jay H. #3: 524 (-337)

32. Jim P.: 519 (-342)

33. Deborah G.: 512 (-349)

34. Ben S.: 507 (-354)

34. Dylan B.: 507 (-354)

36. Kevin F. #2: 502 (-359)

37. Josiah T. #1: 499 (-362)

38. Klei R.: 498 (-363)

39. Dan S.: 490 (-371)

40. Scott H.: 486 (-375)

40. Ryan W.: 486 (-375)

42. Jay H. #1: 484 (-377)

43. Chad L.: 476 (-385)

44. Julie S.: 472 (-389)

45. Becky H.: 467 (-394)

46. Brad R.: 448 (-413)

47. Dustin B.: 440 (-421)

48. Dorthea R.: 436 (-425)

49. Jay H. #2: 425 (-436)

50. Dan Dz.: 416 (-445)

51. Brett W.: 411 (-450)

52. Dan Du.: 404 (-457)

53. Jim W.: 382 (-479)

54. Ally H.: 367 (-494)

55. Nichole W.: 322 (-539)

56. Ash D.: 293 (-568)

So, this year's Bowl Pool was a little anti-climactic for me.  As I've said a few times now, I usually only enter the "experts" picks so that I can laugh at them and use them as a selling point to get more people to play.  It's no fun when the "expert" wins because it makes it seem like there's not a lot of randomness to the games.  I want people that don't know much about college football to enter and feel they have a decent chance.  An outcome like this one makes that a little bit of a harder sell.

For some pool-ending stats, it looks like favorites went 28-13, which is actually something I would think was good.  I love upsets.  They make the pool more interesting when someone takes them and wins.  IT encourages people to take chances.  By my count, there were 5 upsets where Vegas had the line at a TD or more (Idaho / Colorado State, Wake Forest / Temple, Minnesota / Washington State, Baylor / Boise State & Hawaii / Middle Tennessee).  In those games, the big winner was Dorthea R., who nailed 4/5 for 81 total points.  I think that kept her sheet alive quite a while.  Good picking there.

As for the total number of wins, Mark ESPN finished with 30.  There was a 3-way tie for 2nd with Dave M. , Brent E. #1 & Brent E. #2 with 29.  I also keep track of the games that people have listed a "Top 10" pick based on points.  The average sheet this year got 6.18 of those games right for 226.93 points.  No one managed to get through all of those games unscathed, but one person managed to go 9/10.  That person was Stephanie P., who only missed Temple / Wake Forest.  Good picking there by Stephanie P.

Stephanie P. was also the highest placing woman this year, finishing 9th.  Unfortunately, she also has the distinction of being the best finisher for someone that was mathematically eliminated from the very first time I ran the numbers.

So, another year is done for the Bowl Pool.  I don't think I like the schedule where they cram 9 games in 2 days at the end.  I don't typically send out mid-day updates, so it makes it hard to know where you stand during the day.  Next year, I'll try to see if I can get Google Docs to work, so I can share the scoresheet I use with everyone.  That way, anyone can score at home if they are so inclined.  I can also share the sheets that I use when I'm calculating the probabilities for 1st and 2nd.  That way, you can determine for yourself what teams you need to win the various places.  I'm guessing most of you won't, but for those that are heavily invested, it can be fun.

Enjoy the Championship Game net Monday.  I'm going to spend the next few months prepping for the NCAA March Madness pool....

See you then!!!!