March Madness Wrap Up

Well, the championship is decided and much like the semi-final game, the Finals was also pretty anti-climatic.  Villanova slowly stretched out their lead in the first half and then poured in on in the second half.  Michigan looked to be in if doe about 15 minutes, but then never really came close to making it interesting.  That means we have a winner in the 2018 Annual College Basket ball pool.  Here were the final standings:

1. Malcolm X #1: 135 (-57)

2. Chad L. #3: 134 (-58)

3. Adam E.: 133 (-59)

4. Grant F.: 131 (-61)

5. Tim N.: 130 (-62)

6. Brent E. #3: 129 (-63)

7. Pete J. #4: 125 (-67)

8. Larry G. #5: 123 (-69)

9. Miguel D.: 121 (-71)

10. Scott K. #1: 119 (-73)

10. Daisy N. #13: 119 (-73)

10. Jeff M.: 119 (-73)

13. Andrzej R.: 118 (-74)

13. Seth D.: 118 (-74)

15. Rob S. #1: 117 (-75)

16. Eric V. #2: 116 (-76)

17. Taima #2: 114 (-78)

17. Hutch H. #2: 114 (-78)

17. Josh C.: 114 (-78)

20. Alex N. #2: 113 (-79)

20. Brent E. #2: 113 (-79)

22. Brett G. #2: 111 (-81)

22. Kansas C.: 111 (-81)

22. Nikolajs B.: 111 (-81)

25. Larry G. #2: 110 (-82)

25. Valerie D.: 110 (-82)

27. Missy W. #1: 109 (-83)

27. Michelle L. #2: 109 (-83)

27. Jeff Sag. #1: 109 (-83)

27. Elizabeth N. #1: 109 (-83)

27. Josh D. #3: 109 (-83)

32. Daisy N. #1: 108 (-84)

33. Hal R. #2: 107 (-85)

33. Klei R.: 107 (-85)

33. Jim D. #1: 107 (-85)

36. Wayne D. #1: 104 (-88)

36. Max A. #1: 104 (-88)

36. Jim D. #2: 104 (-88)

36. Taima #1: 104 (-88)

40. Mike McQ.: 103 (-89)

40. Scott Her. #1: 103 (-89)

42. William G.: 101 (-91)

43. Daisy N. #2: 100 (-92)

43. Dustin B.: 100 (-92)

45. Irene H. #7: 98 (-94)

45. Daisy N. #6: 98 (-94)

45. Adam S. #2: 98 (-94)

48. Mike W.: 97 (-95)

49. Ben S. #3: 95 (-97)

49. Dennis R.: 95 (-97)

51. Kirt R. #2: 93 (-99)

52. April K.: 90 (-102)

52. Becca T.: 90 (-102)

54. Pete J. #3: 89 (-103)

55. Jay H. #3: 88 (-104)

56. Brad R.: 87 (-105)

56. Irene H. #2: 87 (-105)

58. Damien R. #3: 86 (-106)

58. Scott Has.: 86 (-106)

60. Andrew D. #2: 85 (-107)

60. Brett K. #1: 85 (-107)

62. Michelle L. #3: 84 (-108)

62. Gigi I.: 84 (-108)

64. Larry G. #3: 83 (-109)

64. Paul W.: 83 (-109)

64. Virginia L.: 83 (-109)

67. Roth W.: 82 (-110)

68. Brent E. #1: 81 (-111)

69. Larry G. #1: 80 (-112)

69. Bosun S.: 80 (-112)

71. Mindi W.: 79 (-113)

72. Bhav D. #1: 78 (-114)

72. Ken Pom: 78 (-114)

74. CSU #2: 75 (-117)

74. Dan S. #1: 75 (-117)

74. Ben S. #4: 75 (-117)

74. E Rucker #2: 75 (-117)

78. Howard S. #2: 74 (-118)

78. Karen C.: 74 (-118)

78. Brad E.: 74 (-118)

81. Irene H. #6: 73 (-119)

81. Dan S. #2: 73 (-119)

81. Ben J. #1: 73 (-119)

81. Joe D. #1: 73 (-119)

85. Pete J. #1: 72 (-120)

85. Alex N. #3: 72 (-120)

85. Andrew D. #1: 72 (-120)

88. Max A. #3: 71 (-121)

88. Jeff Sag. #2: 71 (-121)

88. Luis B. #3: 71 (-121)

91. Michelle L. #5: 70 (-122)

91. Pete J. #5: 70 (-122)

93. CSU #1: 69 (-123)

93. Amaris S.: 69 (-123)

95. Damien R. #2: 67 (-125)

95. Jay C.: 67 (-125)

95. David S.: 67 (-125)

98. Ben P.: 66 (-126)

99. Daisy N. #7: 65 (-127)

99. Stefan K. #2: 65 (-127)

99. Scott K.: 65 (-127)

99. Tomas L. #1: 65 (-127)

103. Kiah H.: 64 (-128)

103. Irene H. #3: 64 (-128)

103. Kirt R. #1: 64 (-128)

103. Hal R. #3: 64 (-128)

103. Brent S. #1: 64 (-128)

103. Mike N.: 64 (-128)

109. Ben J. #3: 63 (-129)

109. Ben S. #1: 63 (-129)

109. Josh D. #1: 63 (-129)

109. Tomas L. #2: 63 (-129)

113. Bhav D. #2: 62 (-130)

113. Allison C.: 62 (-130)

113. Wayne D. #3: 62 (-130)

116. Mike S. #1: 61 (-131)

116. Luis B. #1: 61 (-131)

116. Daisy N. #5: 61 (-131)

116. Irene H. #1: 61 (-131)

116. Michelle L. #4: 61 (-131)

116. E Rucker #1: 61 (-131)

122. Brent S. #2: 60 (-132)

122. Hutch H. #1: 60 (-132)

122. Matt N.: 60 (-132)

125. Mike S. #2: 59 (-133)

125. Mason A. #2: 59 (-133)

127. Brett G. #1: 58 (-134)

127. Brett G. #4: 58 (-134)

127. Marc R.: 58 (-134)

127. Scott Her. #2: 58 (-134)

127. Ben S. #2: 58 (-134)

127. David W. #1: 58 (-134)

127. Trent L.: 58 (-134)

127. Jay H. #1: 58 (-134)

127. Max A. #2: 58 (-134)

136. Uproxx: 57 (-135)

136. Chris M.: 57 (-135)

136. Veronica A.: 57 (-135)

136. Ben J. #4: 57 (-135)

136. Howard S. #1: 57 (-135)

136. John M. #2: 57 (-135)

142. Jaxon S.: 56 (-136)

142. Barack O.: 56 (-136)

142. Kate G.: 56 (-136)

142. Alex N. #1: 56 (-136)

142. Chad L. #2: 56 (-136)

147. Nick I.: 55 (-137)

147. Matt M.: 55 (-137)

147. Eric V. #1: 55 (-137)

150. Joe D. #2: 54 (-138)

150. Mason A. #1: 54 (-138)

150. Luis B. #2: 54 (-138)

150. Sulbum H.: 54 (-138)

150. David W. #2: 54 (-138)

150. Craig G.: 54 (-138)

150. Brett G. #3: 54 (-138)

157. Michelle R.: 53 (-139)

157. Daisy N. #8: 53 (-139)

157. Elizabeth N. #2: 53 (-139)

157. Damien R. #1: 53 (-139)

157. Scott K. #2: 53 (-139)

157. Jace D.: 53 (-139)

163. Daisy N. #3: 52 (-140)

163. Jared B.: 52 (-140)

163. Jay H. #2: 52 (-140)

163. Joel S.: 52 (-140)

163. Dylan B.: 52 (-140)

168. Wayne D. #2: 51 (-141)

168. Pete J. #2: 51 (-141)

170. Todd K. #1: 50 (-142)

170. Arianna S.: 50 (-142)

170. Chris T. #2: 50 (-142)

173. Jim W.: 49 (-143)

173. Ally H.: 49 (-143)

173. Daisy N. #11: 49 (-143)

173. Missy W. #2: 49 (-143)

173. Joe D. #4: 49 (-143)

178. Suki I.: 48 (-144)

178. Ray W. #2: 48 (-144)

180. Julie S.: 47 (-145)

180. Hal R. #1: 47 (-145)

180. Ava S.: 47 (-145)

180. Stefan K. #1: 47 (-145)

180. Irene H. #4: 47 (-145)

180. Adam S. #1: 47 (-145)

180. Larry G. #4: 47 (-145)

180. Michelle L. #1: 47 (-145)

180. Jim D. #3: 47 (-145)

189. Malcolm X #2: 46 (-146)

189. Szecho L. #2: 46 (-146)

189. Alyssa B.: 46 (-146)

189. Becky H.: 46 (-146)

189. Rob S. #2: 46 (-146)

194. Dane R.: 45 (-147)

194. Todd K. #2: 45 (-147)

194. Daniel C.: 45 (-147)

194. Ben J. #2: 45 (-147)

194. Chrissy I.: 45 (-147)

194. Daisy N. #4: 45 (-147)

194. Josh D. #2: 45 (-147)

201. Alex N. #4: 44 (-148)

201. Jackson I.: 44 (-148)

203. Ryan W.: 43 (-149)

204. Ray W. #3: 41 (-151)

205. Rob I.: 40 (-152)

205. Dan D. #2: 40 (-152)

205. Brett K. #2: 40 (-152)

205. Daisy N. #10: 40 (-152)

205. Joe D. #3: 40 (-152)

210. Brett W.: 39 (-153)

211. Chris T. #1: 38 (-154)

211. Chad L. #4: 38 (-154)

211. Chad L. #1: 38 (-154)

211. John M. #3: 38 (-154)

211. Chad L. #5: 38 (-154)

216. Szecho L. #1: 37 (-155)

216. Ray W. #1: 37 (-155)

218. Irene H. #5: 36 (-156)

218. Dan D. #1: 36 (-156)

220. Daisy N. #9: 35 (-157)

221. John M. #1: 34 (-158)

222. Stephen N.: 33 (-159)

223. Daisy N. #12: 30 (-162)

224. Brett K. #3: 29 (-163)

Here comes the real problem for me, and it's a problem I really don't like.  I have no idea who "Malcolm X" actually is.  That makes paying him really, really difficult.  My argument is that administering this pool is hard enough as it is, I don't need cute nicknames from people I don't know to make it even harder.  I would encourage everyone in the future to avoid doing this, unless I know who you are.

Regardless, Malcolm X was one of 7 people that managed to call the Final game correctly (Villanova over Michigan).  That accounted for 64 points.  The entire top 7 got those games right.  The top 4 were clumped pretty close together, so let's look at what separated 1st from 4th.

After the first round, it looks like things were already stacked up as they would finish.  Malcolm X started out with 23/32 games correct, which was good enough for 45th place.  Chad L. was one point behind in 97th place.  Adam E and Grant F. finished the first round with 21/32, which were somewhere in the middle of the pack at 130th and 126th place.

The second round brought a little jumble to the standings.  Malcolm X only got 8/16, which put him in 39th place, but with Grant F. hitting 10/16, they were tied after the first weekend.  Adam E. hit 8/16 to keep pace 2 points back (81st place), but Chad L. struggled with only 6/16 games correct to fall back to 144th place.  This just proved how little the first two rounds actually matter.

In the Elite 8, Malcolm started to pull away, hitting 4/8 to move up into 8th place.  Adam E. stayed steady with 4/8 to move up to 30th place, but Grant F. fell back a little, only going 3/8 to finish the round at 50th place.  Chad L. actually underperformed again in this round, only getting 3/8 to finish the round in 131st place.

The big moves came when the Final 4 was decided.  Obviously, everyone got at least 2 teams right, because they needed those teams to make the Championship game.  It was here that Chad L. made the big move.  He also nailed Kansas in the Final 4, and those 8 points were crucial to moving him into contention again.  Getting 3/4 moved him ahead of Grant and Adam, just behind Malcolm.  From there, all the brackets were the same and we have our winner.  It's hard to pin down games that made a difference, but if one of the first round games would've flipped (Texas over Nevada, say), the results would've been different.  This is why I always say the first two rounds are essentially tie-breakers.

For all of the hand-wringing about how crazy the South bracket was, the final results wound up being pretty darn close to the overall average points over the years.  Here's a breakdown of the winning scores since 2012:

Year	1	2	3	4
2018	135	134	133	131
2017	141	137.5	137	130
2016	143	134.5	134	132
2015	141	136	134.5	134
2014	127	101	91	83
2013	137	125	121	120
2012	153	151	149	145

The amount of points you needed to win was slightly below average, but the points needed for 2nd, 3rd and 4th were way above average.  Also, notice that there was only 4 points that separated 1st and 4th.  That makes this the closest pool we've had in the last 7 years.  It kinda makes you wonder what happened in 2014.  That was the Shabazz Napier UConn Final where they beat Kentucky with Julius Randle.  That final was a 7 vs an 8, so that makes sense that no one would get any points there.  A 1 vs. 3 is much more reasonable, and thus a pretty typical tournament.

As typical as this tournament was, it was also fantastic.  I got pretty much everything I wanted out of it.  There were some huge upsets early with UMBC and Buffalo.  There were some Cinderella teams with Loyola-Chicago, Kansas State and Florida State, and there were some really good teams that played some really fun games to watch.  I don't have any love for Kansas or Duke, but the Duke / Kansas game was maybe the best game of the tournament from a perspective of enjoying basketball played at a high level.  The UMBC / Virginia game is probably going to be the game I'll remember most out of this tournament though.  I feel like I was in shock for an entire hour watching the second half of that game.  It was maybe the most fun I've had watching a basketball game in years, if not ever.  I loved that particular game, and I enjoyed this years tournament.

I always try to add a little something new each year, and this year, I figured out how to give people access to some of the spreadsheets that I use to keep score and calculate odds.  I hope that helped people.  You could see if I got your picks right and also see who everyone else chose.  Next year, I may add more, but I've already built a program that scours everyone's entries to see if there are any missing or inconsistent picks (like someone picking a team to go to the Final 4 that they don't have winning in the Elite 8).  That should cut down on any bad brackets.  We always have a half-dozen of those every year, so it will be nice to get rid of them.

All right, The monies.  We had  224 people in the pool, which means the total prize pool was $1120.  The breakdown of the monies goes: 50/25/15/10 so:

Malcolm X: $560

Chad L: $280

Adam E.: $168

Grant F: $112

Grant managed to finish 3rd in the Bowl pool this year, so great job Grant.  Finishing in the money in any of my pools is hard, but to make the money in both is really exceptional.  Good picking this year.

I'll try to contact everyone that won to see how they want to get paid.  With that, we are all done for the year.  I hope everyone had fun and I look forward to seeing everyone in the fall for the Bowl pool and if not then, next year for March Madness 2019.

Thanks!!!

Klei