March Madness Wrap-up

All right, it’s the last of the posts until football bowl season rolls around, so I hope everyone has nice spring, summer and fall.

As for me, I will spending my time working on my Baysian ranking system for college basketball with the hopes it will give me an inside track for next season.

This season, however, is now over, and our champion is the same as last year in real basketball terms, but totally different in March Madness pool terms.

This year was a lot more chalky than last year, and that was reflected in the number of points it took to win.  Last year, Charlotte N. buried the field with a score of 125.  This year, that score would have been good enough to tie for 28^th.  This is what happens when you get to #1 seeds in the final game.

I’ve always thought there are essentially 2 ways to win this pool.  One is to take a favorite that everyone likes, and then hope you do well enough in the early rounds to win any potential tiebreakers.  The other option is take a team not many people like and then if they win, you are probably going to finish in the money.  Both come with their own risks, and it’s really hard to tell how the tournament is going to play out.  This year, the trick seemed to be get both Purdue and UConn in the championship game, but then get one of the other 2 Final 4 teams.  That was pretty hard to do.

Only 17 people had Alabama in the Final 4.  Of those 17, 4 people also had Purdue / UConn in the Championship game.  Only 4 people had NC State in the Final 4, and amazingly, only 1 of those people also had Connecticut even in the Final 4, much less winning it all.

So, the trick seemed to be hitting the Championship game exactly right, plus having Alabama in the Final 4.  The top 3 people all had that.

The winner overall was a bracket named “Off Efficiency”.  For those that don’t know, I enter a bunch of brackets based on picks I find on the Internet.  Most of the time, I do this to see how good talking heads do or how well computer rankings do.  I also enter one only by the seeds so I can mark when it gets knocked out.  This year I did a couple.  I did Jay Bilas from ESPN (T11), Seth Davis (T48), the Guless Bracket, only by the seeds (T37), Ken Pom, who has a website with basketball statistics (T35), and then I entered 2 brackets that were a subsection of Ken Pom’s rankings.  One is ranking of how well each team does based solely on how well they play defense and the other based solely on well they play offense.  The Def Efficiency ranking bracket did horribly (250^th).  The Offensive Efficiency one did amazingly well, and it was the winner.

That puts me in a strange position, because I entered those picks, but I essentially just looked over the right kids shoulder to cheat on the math test.  It’s hard to feel too proud to do that.  I normally just enter those brackets as a curiosity.  I don’t ever really expect them to win, but here we are.  So, I’m going to do a little bit with the money, but I’m mostly going to give it away.  It seems only fair, although I haven’t picked who to give it to yet.  I honestly didn’t think any of these entries would ever win, so I never thought really hard about it.

I was looking at the just how hard it is to win this pool.  When the Sweet 16 was finalized, Off Efficiency was sitting in 180^th place.  It’s odds of winning were around 0.04%, so 1/25^th of 1% chance.  This is why I say that you should always pay attention until you are actually mathematically eliminated.  That is a miniscule percent chance, and yet it won.  For further context, Guillermo V. only got 2^nd because I won the tiebreaker, and his chances to win when the Sweet 16 finalized was even worse: .0085% or 1/117^th of 1%.

So, how did a bracket that far back wind up winning?  Well, there were no less than 9 games out of the last 15 that it HAD to win in order to stay alive.  If any of those games had turned out the other way, it would have been eliminated.  Those games were UConn v SDSU, Alabama v N. Carolina, Purdue v Gonzaga, UConn v Illinois, Alabama v Clemson, Purdue v Tennessee, Purdue v NC State, UConn v Alabama and UConn v Purdue.  This all seems kind of obvious in retrospect since all those games worked out, but there was certainly no guarantee that would happen.  As it turned out, there was only 1 game out of the last 15 which didn’t improve the chances that Off Efficiency would win, and that was the Tennessee v Creighton game.  Crazy.

Every year, something like this happens.  Someone will go on a really long run where all the games go their way, they avoid the elimination games and eventually win.  The fun is hoping that it’s you and then looking back to see how you got there.

So, here are the final standings:

1. Off Efficiency: 149 (-43) - Connecticut

1.1. Guillermo V.: 149 (-43) - Connecticut

3. Brad R.: 145 (-47) - Connecticut

4. Mike N.: 144 (-48) - Connecticut

5. Luis B. #2: 142 (-50) - Connecticut

5. John Mack #1: 142 (-50) - Connecticut

7. Niren D.: 141 (-51) - Connecticut

7. Brent E. #3: 141 (-51) - Connecticut

7. Brent E. #4: 141 (-51) - Connecticut

7. Derek H.: 141 (-51) - Connecticut

11. Chris L. #1: 140 (-52) - Connecticut

11. Jay B. - ESPN: 140 (-52) - Connecticut

11. Jay H. #2: 140 (-52) - Connecticut

14. D. Mag #3: 139 (-53) - Connecticut

14. CAAT #1: 139 (-53) - Connecticut

16. Jared V.: 136 (-56) - Connecticut

16. Shanky G.: 136 (-56) - Connecticut

18. CAAT #2: 134 (-58) - Connecticut

19. Larry G. #2: 132 (-60) - Connecticut

19. Melody K.: 132 (-60) - Connecticut

19. Luis B. #3: 132 (-60) - Connecticut

19. Patrick McC. #1: 132 (-60) - Connecticut

23. Scott H. #1: 130 (-62) - Connecticut

24. Daisy N. #1: 129 (-63) - Connecticut

25. Pete J. #1: 128 (-64) - Connecticut

26. Dan Dug. #1: 127 (-65) - Connecticut

26. Howard S. #2: 127 (-65) - Purdue

28. Daisy N. #4: 125 (-67) - Connecticut

28. Damien R. #2: 125 (-67) - Connecticut

28. Michael S. #1: 125 (-67) - Connecticut

31. Pat K.: 124 (-68) - Connecticut

31. Mason A. #1: 124 (-68) - Connecticut

31. Melissa M.: 124 (-68) - Connecticut

31. Brandon B. #1: 124 (-68) - Connecticut

35. Danielle A.: 123 (-69) - Connecticut

35. Ken Pom: 123 (-69) - Connecticut

37. Gutless Bracket: 121 (-71) - Connecticut

38. Irene H. #7: 120 (-72) - Connecticut

38. Luis B. #1: 120 (-72) - Connecticut

40. Brent S. #2: 118 (-74) - Connecticut

40. Ben S.: 118 (-74) - Connecticut

42. Elizabeth N. #1: 117 (-75) - Connecticut

43. CAAT #3: 116 (-76) - Connecticut

43. CAAT #4: 116 (-76) - Connecticut

43. Luis B. #5: 116 (-76) - Connecticut

46. Carlo G.: 115 (-77) - Connecticut

46. Brent S. #1: 115 (-77) - Connecticut

48. Seth D.: 114 (-78) - Connecticut

48. Michelle L. #1: 114 (-78) - Connecticut

48. Dan L. #2: 114 (-78) - Purdue

51. Elliot N.: 113 (-79) - Connecticut

52. David F. #2: 112 (-80) - Connecticut

52. Josh V.: 112 (-80) - Connecticut

52. Kevin F. #1: 112 (-80) - Connecticut

55. Amber D.: 111 (-81) - Connecticut

56. CAAT #5: 110 (-82) - Connecticut

56. Patrick McC. #2: 110 (-82) - Connecticut

56. Luis B. #4: 110 (-82) - Connecticut

56. Zach V.: 110 (-82) - Connecticut

60. Dan P.: 109 (-83) - Connecticut

60. Dennis R.: 109 (-83) - Connecticut

60. Irene H. #1: 109 (-83) - Connecticut

60. Michael S. #2: 109 (-83) - Purdue

64. Colston W.: 108 (-84) - Connecticut

64. Jim D. #1: 108 (-84) - Connecticut

64. James G.: 108 (-84) - Connecticut

64. Matt H.: 108 (-84) - Connecticut

64. Chris L. #2: 108 (-84) - Purdue

69. Daisy N. #11: 107 (-85) - Connecticut

69. Ryan G.: 107 (-85) - Purdue

71. Tim Dz. #1: 106 (-86) - Connecticut

71. Henry A.: 106 (-86) - Connecticut

71. Brad E.: 106 (-86) - Purdue

71. Andy L.: 106 (-86) - Purdue

75. Pete J. #6: 105 (-87) - Connecticut

76. Mike V.: 104 (-88) - Connecticut

76. John E. #2: 104 (-88) - Purdue

76. Matt N.: 104 (-88) - Purdue

79. Moochie #4: 103 (-89) - Connecticut

79. Mark B.: 103 (-89) - Connecticut

81. Brett G. (Upset): 102 (-90) - Connecticut

81. Rob C.: 102 (-90) - Connecticut

83. Moochie #5: 101 (-91) - Connecticut

83. Wayne D. #3: 101 (-91) - Purdue

85. Greg R.: 100 (-92) - Purdue

86. Valerie D.: 99 (-93) - Connecticut

87. Michelle L. #4: 98 (-94) - Purdue

88. Daisy N. #2: 97 (-95) - Purdue

88. Irene H. #3: 97 (-95) - Purdue

88. Craig G.: 97 (-95) - Purdue

91. Shawn D.: 95 (-97) - Purdue

92. Michelle L. #3: 94 (-98) - Houston

92. Becky H.: 94 (-98) - Purdue

92. Larry G. #1: 94 (-98) - Purdue

95. Stefon K.: 93 (-99) - Purdue

96. Chris L. #3: 92 (-100) - North Carolina

97. Dave A.: 91 (-101) - Purdue

97. Ally H.: 91 (-101) - Purdue

97. David F. #1: 91 (-101) - Purdue

100. Eric S. #2: 90 (-102) - Purdue

101. Beau H.: 89 (-103) - Alabama

101. Emily T.: 89 (-103) - Arizona

101. Kristin G.: 89 (-103) - Houston

101. Brooklynn B.: 89 (-103) - Purdue

105. John A. #2: 88 (-104) - Houston

105. April K.: 88 (-104) - Purdue

107. Dan Mck.: 87 (-105) - Purdue

108. John Mack #2: 86 (-106) - Purdue

109. Brooke M. #2: 85 (-107) - Arizona

109. Kirt R. #2: 85 (-107) - Purdue

109. Wayne D. #4: 85 (-107) - Purdue

112. Marc R.: 84 (-108) - Arizona

112. Roth W.: 84 (-108) - Houston

114. Deanna T.: 83 (-109) - Purdue

114. Jaxon S.: 83 (-109) - Purdue

116. Veronica G.: 82 (-110) - Houston

116. Chun W. #1: 82 (-110) - Tennessee

116. Mario M.: 82 (-110) - Tennessee

119. Kyle V.: 81 (-111) - Houston

119. Dirk F.: 81 (-111) - Purdue

121. Dustin B.: 80 (-112) - Creighton

121. Klei R. #1: 80 (-112) - Houston

121. Pete J. #3: 80 (-112) - Houston

121. Kevin F. #2: 80 (-112) - Purdue

125. Scarlett H.: 79 (-113) - Houston

125. Pete J. #2: 79 (-113) - Kentucky

125. Adam S.: 79 (-113) - North Carolina

128. Baily T.: 78 (-114) - South Carolina

128. Pete J. #4: 78 (-114) - Tennessee

130. Jim D. #2: 77 (-115) - Houston

130. Hutch H. #1: 77 (-115) - Kansas

130. Elizabeth P. #3: 77 (-115) - Kentucky

130. Brent E. #2: 77 (-115) - North Carolina

130. Klei R. #2: 77 (-115) - Purdue

135. Wayne D. #2: 76 (-116) - Auburn

136. Michelle L. #5: 75 (-117) - Alabama

136. Kirt R. #1: 75 (-117) - Houston

136. Brandon B. #2: 75 (-117) - North Carolina

136. Harrell R. #3: 75 (-117) - Tennessee

140. Pete J. #5: 74 (-118) - Auburn

140. Tyler C.: 74 (-118) - Houston

140. Scott H. #2: 74 (-118) - Houston

140. Adalyn H.: 74 (-118) - Purdue

144. Mark A.: 73 (-119) - Arizona

144. Mary Lou H.: 73 (-119) - Houston

144. Brandon H. #1: 73 (-119) - Houston

144. Mike W.: 73 (-119) - Iowa State

144. Larry G. #3: 73 (-119) - Purdue

144. John N.: 73 (-119) - San Diego State

150. Andrew D. #1: 72 (-120) - Houston

150. Kiah H. #1: 72 (-120) - Houston

150. Paul W.: 72 (-120) - North Carolina

150. Irene H. #6: 72 (-120) - North Carolina

150. Klei R. #3: 72 (-120) - Purdue

155. Brandon H. #2: 71 (-121) - Arizona

155. Eric S. #1: 71 (-121) - Houston

157. Kristina H.: 70 (-122) - Kentucky

157. Michelle L. #2: 70 (-122) - North Carolina

157. Nick I.: 70 (-122) - Purdue

157. Irene H. #5: 70 (-122) - Tennessee

161. John A. #1: 69 (-123) - Houston

161. Missy W. #1: 69 (-123) - Marquette

161. Adam E.: 69 (-123) - North Carolina

161. Cicely K.: 69 (-123) - North Carolina

161. Daisy N. #8: 69 (-123) - Tennessee

166. Daisy N. #3: 68 (-124) - Houston

166. Wayne D. #1: 68 (-124) - North Carolina

166. Chris L. #4: 68 (-124) - North Carolina

169. John E. #1: 67 (-125) - Houston

169. Chun W. #2: 67 (-125) - North Carolina

169. Dawn T.: 67 (-125) - North Carolina

172. Irene H. #4: 66 (-126) - Arizona

172. Irene H. #2: 66 (-126) - Houston

172. Tim N.: 66 (-126) - Marquette

172. Paul K. #1: 66 (-126) - North Carolina

176. Nate R.: 65 (-127) - Houston

176. Derek B.: 65 (-127) - North Carolina

178. Chrissy I.: 64 (-128) - Arizona

178. Szecho L.: 64 (-128) - Houston

180. Noah G.: 63 (-129) - Kentucky

180. Ryan W.: 63 (-129) - Kentucky

180. Stephen C.: 63 (-129) - Nebraska

180. Dan L. #1: 63 (-129) - Tennessee

184. Faye N.: 62 (-130) - Texas A&M

185. Eric V.: 61 (-131) - Auburn

185. Scott K. #2: 61 (-131) - Houston

185. Hutch H. #2: 61 (-131) - Houston

185. Vang L.: 61 (-131) - Iowa State

185. Harrell R. #2: 61 (-131) - NC State

190. Eric G.: 60 (-132) - Houston

190. Joe C.: 60 (-132) - Houston

190. Mitchell S.: 60 (-132) - North Carolina

190. Kealoha G.: 60 (-132) - North Carolina

190. Mason A. #2: 60 (-132) - North Carolina

190. Moochie #2: 60 (-132) - Tennessee

196. Gary W.: 59 (-133) - Arizona

196. Ryan Green: 59 (-133) - Houston

196. Brent E. #1: 59 (-133) - Houston

196. Connor W.: 59 (-133) - Houston

196. Noah N.: 59 (-133) - Kentucky

201. Legend of Zelli: 58 (-134) - Duke

201. Tomas L.: 58 (-134) - Houston

203. Brett W.: 57 (-135) - Arizona

203. Matt W.: 57 (-135) - Arizona

203. Bryce S.: 57 (-135) - Creighton

203. Damien R. #3: 57 (-135) - Houston

203. Paul K. #2: 57 (-135) - Illinois

208. Damien R. #1: 56 (-136) - Houston

208. Daisy N. #6: 56 (-136) - Iowa State

208. Jared B.: 56 (-136) - Iowa State

208. Daisy N. #7: 56 (-136) - Kentucky

208. D. Mag #2: 56 (-136) - North Carolina

213. Rich F.: 55 (-137) - Marquette

213. Jim W.: 55 (-137) - North Carolina

213. Jackson I.: 55 (-137) - Tennessee

213. Larry G. #4: 55 (-137) - Tennessee

217. Gigi I.: 54 (-138) - Arizona

217. Daisy N. #10: 54 (-138) - Arizona

217. Daniel E.: 54 (-138) - Arizona

217. Howard S. #1: 54 (-138) - Auburn

217. Brooke M. #1: 54 (-138) - Houston

217. Chris E.: 54 (-138) - Marquette

217. Dan Dug. #2: 54 (-138) - North Carolina

224. Kim F.: 53 (-139) - Creighton

224. Chris M.: 53 (-139) - Houston

224. Daisy N. #12: 53 (-139) - Tennessee

227. Miles D.: 52 (-140) - Arizona

227. D. Mag #1: 52 (-140) - Auburn

227. Grant F.: 52 (-140) - Houston

227. Daisy N. #9: 52 (-140) - Houston

231. Josh C.: 51 (-141) - Auburn

231. DESGRU8 (Dan Dz.): 51 (-141) - North Carolina

231. Scott K. #1: 51 (-141) - Tennessee

234. Brett G. (Quinnie): 50 (-142) - Arizona

234. Alyssa B.: 50 (-142) - Arizona

234. Rob I.: 50 (-142) - Arizona

234. Brett G. (Devils): 50 (-142) - Houston

234. Andrew D. #2: 50 (-142) - Houston

234. Christopher K.: 50 (-142) - Illinois

234. Brian K.: 50 (-142) - Illinois

234. Chris T.: 50 (-142) - North Carolina

234. Moochie #1: 50 (-142) - North Carolina

234. Missy W. #2: 50 (-142) - Tennessee

244. Dylan B.: 49 (-143) - Houston

244. Brett G. (Sleeper): 49 (-143) - Iowa State

244. Harrell R. #1: 49 (-143) - North Carolina

247. Bryce O.: 47 (-145) - Houston

247. Elizabeth N. #2: 47 (-145) - North Carolina

249. Tim Dz. #2: 46 (-146) - Arizona

250. Def Efficiency: 45 (-147) - Iowa State

251. Jacob A.: 44 (-148) - Iowa State

251. Karen C.: 44 (-148) - Kentucky

251. Daisy N. #5: 44 (-148) - North Carolina

254. Steve Dz. #2: 43 (-149) - Illinois

254. Harrell R. #4: 43 (-149) - Iowa State

254. Josiah T.: 43 (-149) - North Carolina

257. Steve Dz. #1: 42 (-150) - Iowa State

257. Damien R. #4: 42 (-150) - Long Beach State

259. Kiah H. #2: 41 (-151) - Texas Tech

260. Jay H. #1: 40 (-152) - Houston

261. Marshmellow (Nik B.): 38 (-154) - Howard / Wagner

261. Amanda R.: 38 (-154) - Wisconsin

263. Finn D.: 37 (-155) - Kansas

264. Matt M.: 36 (-156) - Auburn

265. Wayne D. #5: 35 (-157) - Houston

265. D. Mag #4: 35 (-157) - Illinois

265. Dianna A.: 35 (-157) - Kansas

268. Brandie H.: 34 (-158) - Nebraska

268. Charlotte N.: 34 (-158) - San Diego State

270. Mustard (Nikolajs B.): 32 (-160) - Oregon

271. Moochie #3: 29 (-163) - James Madison

272. Constance McA.: 28 (-164) - Gonzaga

273. Ali A. #2: 21 (-171) - Arizona

273. Ali A. #1: 21 (-171) - Washington State

Now for the monies---

We started with 274 entries at $5 for a total prize pool of: $1,370.  We take $100 off the top for the 4 winners of the 4 regions, leaving us with $1,270.

The breakdown of the 5 payouts goes like this:

1^st: 45% = $1,270 * 0.45 = $571.50

2^nd: 25% = $1,270 * 0.25 = $317.50

3^rd: 15% = $1,270 * 0.15 = $190.50

4^th: 10% = $1,270 * 0.10 = $127.00

5^th: 5% = $1,270 * 0.05 = $63.50

So, there was a tiebreaker for 5^th place.  Unfortunately, that means the winner of the tie-breaker gets 5^th and the loser gets nothing.  However, since I won the pool and I hate tie-breakers, I am going to take some money out of the 1^st place winnings and pay out both 5^th place entries this year.  I really don’t like the idea of someone getting nothing because of a tie breaker, so congratulations to both 5^th place finishers.

For those that forgot, we also gave out $25 prizes to the regional winners earlier, so here’s who I owe money to.  I will be reaching out to everyone to figure out how best to get them their money:

Guillermo V: $317.50

Brad R .: $190.50

Mike N.: $127.00 + $8.33 = 135.33

Luis B.: $63.50

John Mack: $63.50 + $25 = $88.50

Brooklynn B: $8.33

Brandon B.: $8.33

Howard S.: $25

Michelle L.: $25

So, only a few changes I would propose for next year.  I really liked the regional stuff.  It made it more interesting for me, since otherwise all I’d be doing in the first 2 rounds is totaling up points.  It makes it like 4 individual tournaments, but they are especially tight.  In a lot of cases, one loss in the first round was enough to take you out of contention.  I think next year, I’ll up the prize money in those to $50, assuming I get about the same volume of entries.

Another thing is that I won’t ask for tie-breakers up front, but once the Final 4 is set, if there is any possibility of it ending in a tie, I will track down guesses prior to the Final 4 being played.  This year I waited until the Championship game was established to ask for tie-breakers, and that’s a little unfair, since at that point there is already an established O/U line people can reference.

So, that’s it.  Thanks to everyone for playing.  I hope everyone had fun.  I know I did – as I almost always do.  Please tell everyone you know about the pool.  I like to keep it growing every year.  I’ve built it up pretty well that I can pretty easily handle more people getting in.

See you all again in the fall!!!!

Klei