Monday, April 6, 2015

The Post tourney wrap-up edition



I'm going to start off by saying that I despise Duke.  There are many, many things about running an NCAA pool that I love.  I love selection Sunday.  I love Rex Manning day.  I love it when I can calculate initial odds of winning the pool after the Sweet 16.  I love it when the gutless bracket inevitably gets eliminated from all contention.  I could also add to that list whenever Duke loses a game.  I love watching Duke lose.  There are some programs I kind of don't like, but depending on the roster of the year, I can stomach them.  I think Kansas is 2nd least favorite program, and there are some Kansas teams I could get behind with the right matchup.  Duke just never is a team like that.  No matter what the roster, I can't, and never will, stand them.

Despite my seething hatred for Duke, they did win tonight.  Any of a number of questionable referee calls went Duke's way (as they usually seem to), but I don't know that any of them determined the outcome of the game.

What that means for the pool is that it is all over but the payoffs.  I put off announcing the actual payoffs, since I wanted to see how much I was going to get stiffed this season and down-count accordingly.  As of today, only 2 people haven't responded to my call for payment, so I think I can go ahead and go with my original 50-25-15-10 payout structure.

So, we had 206 entries this season, for a total prize pool of $1,030.

That means Daisy N. wins $515.00
Second place goes to Brent S. for $275.50
Third goes to Szecho L. after winning the tie breaker for $154.50
Fourth goes to Mark N. after losing the tiebreaker for $103

Despite picking Duke, I actually do like this group of winners.  As I mentioned on the last post, Daisy N overpaid when she entered this year, so karma must have smiled on that giving her the win.  She has also said that she looks forward to this pool every year, so now she pretty much is ahead for a lifetime, unless she wants to enter something like 100 brackets next year.

If memory serves, Brent S. has won this pool once a few years ago.  I think finishing 2nd puts him in the pantheon on NCAA picking.  IT's like making 2 final tables in the World Series of Poker.  This pool is really hard to finish in the money, so doing it twice is an incredible feat.

As I mentioned in the last post, Szecho bought me a beer during the Sweet 16.  He also invited me out tonight to watch the finals, but honestly, I don't know how good of company I would have been.  On the flip side, it might have helped my frustration to be in public.  I tend to be a little more of a spirited watcher in the privacy of home.  Anyway, if you want to make a beer at the Sweet 16 a tradition, I'm totally down with it for next year.  I'm not sure if it will secure a place at the top, but it can't hurt.

Mark N. miraculously finished 4th despite having Wisconsin winning the game tonight.  So, 17 people had Duke winning it all (+32 points tonight).  Mark N. got 0 points tonight and still managed to beat all but 2 of them.  That's some really good picking (except for tonight).  I also just looked at last year's standings, and Mark N. finished 4th last year as well.   Last year, he also picked Wisconsin to win it all.  So, 2 straight years picking Wisconsin to win, 2 years they came up short, but still managed to finish 4th.  Amazing.

Here are the final stats:

1. Daisy N. #4: 141 (-51)
2. Brent S. #1: 136 (-56)
3. Szecho L.: 134 (-58)
3. Mark N. #2: 134 (-58)
5. Veronica A.: 132 (-60)
6. Brandon H.: 127 (-65)
7. Kye G. #2: 126 (-66)
8. Michelle L. #3: 125 (-67)
9. Chad L. #3: 124 (-68)
9. April K.: 124 (-68)
9. Ben J. #3: 124 (-68)
12. Todd K. #3: 122 (-70)
13. Damien R. #1: 121 (-71)
13. Chad L. #2: 121 (-71)
13. Todd K. #2: 121 (-71)
16. Chun W. #1: 120 (-72)
16. Jay K.: 120 (-72)
18. Irene H. #1: 119 (-73)
18. Dustin B.: 119 (-73)
20. Ray R.: 118 (-74)
21. Chris La. #4: 117 (-75)
22. Bobby H.: 116 (-76)
23. Luis B. #3: 114 (-78)
23. Dennis R. #1: 114 (-78)
25. Jim W.: 113 (-79)
26. Todd K. #1: 111 (-81)
27. Brent S. #2: 108 (-84)
28. Mike W.: 107 (-85)
28. Marissa W. #1: 107 (-85)
30. Rich F. #2: 106 (-86)
31. Kye G. #1: 105 (-87)
32. Chris La. #2: 104 (-88)
32. Chun W. #3: 104 (-88)
32. Ryan W.: 104 (-88)
32. Gigi Q.: 104 (-88)
32. Larry G. #4: 104 (-88)
32. James G. #2: 104 (-88)
32. Chris La. #3: 104 (-88)
39. Dan D. #1: 103 (-89)
40. Daisy N. #1: 102 (-90)
40. Harrell R. #2: 102 (-90)
42. Mark N. #1: 101 (-91)
43. Eric V. #1: 100 (-92)
43. Missy W. #1: 100 (-92)
43. Taima B #2: 100 (-92)
43. Dennis R. #2: 100 (-92)
43. Steve D.: 100 (-92)
43. Christy K. #1: 100 (-92)
43. Hutch H. #2: 100 (-92)
50. James G. #3: 99 (-93)
51. James G. #1: 98 (-94)
51. Scottt #2: 98 (-94)
51. Rich F. #1: 98 (-94)
51. Jim D. #2: 98 (-94)
51. Peter J. #4: 98 (-94)
51. Brent S. #3: 98 (-94)
51. Larry G. #2: 98 (-94)
51. Chris L. #1: 98 (-94)
59. Ron B.: 97 (-95)
59. Dan S.: 97 (-95)
61. Matt N.: 96 (-96)
61. Ben S. #1: 96 (-96)
61. Mike S. #1: 96 (-96)
64. Dave M.: 95 (-97)
64. Alyssa B.: 95 (-97)
64. Peter J. #5: 95 (-97)
64. Jonathan M. #3: 95 (-97)
68. Adam E.: 94 (-98)
68. Daryl J.: 94 (-98)
68. Bret K. #1: 94 (-98)
68. Brent E. #1: 94 (-98)
72. Virginia L. #1: 93 (-99)
72. Damien R. #2: 93 (-99)
74. Jenny E.: 92 (-100)
74. Chris Lu. #2: 92 (-100)
76. Virginia L. #2: 91 (-101)
76. Joe K. #1: 91 (-101)
78. Luis B. #2: 90 (-102)
79. Brett W.: 89 (-103)
79. Seth D.: 89 (-103)
79. Jessica B.: 89 (-103)
82. Brent E. #4: 88 (-104)
82. Scottt #1: 88 (-104)
82. Justin L.: 88 (-104)
82. Becky H.: 88 (-104)
86. Jonathan M. #1: 87 (-105)
86. Andrew D. #2: 87 (-105)
86. Amber W.: 87 (-105)
86. Steve K. #1: 87 (-105)
86. Brad E.: 87 (-105)
86. Brad R.: 87 (-105)
92. Roth W.: 86 (-106)
92. Joe K. #2: 86 (-106)
94. Brent E. #2: 85 (-107)
94. Steve H. #1: 85 (-107)
96. Larry G. #3: 84 (-108)
97. Carl B.: 83 (-109)
97. Brandon B.: 83 (-109)
97. Peter J. #3: 83 (-109)
100. Steve K. #2: 82 (-110)
100. Joe R.: 82 (-110)
100. Bhav R. #1: 82 (-110)
100. Jax Q.: 82 (-110)
104. Joe K. #3: 81 (-111)
104. Kirt R. #1: 81 (-111)
106. Paul W.: 80 (-112)
106. Kolton D.: 80 (-112)
106. Larry G. #1: 80 (-112)
106. Andrew D. #1: 80 (-112)
106. Jonathan M. #2: 80 (-112)
111. Irene H. #2: 79 (-113)
111. Scott H. #1: 79 (-113)
111. Klei R. #1: 79 (-113)
111. Jay H. #3: 79 (-113)
111. Michelle L. #2: 79 (-113)
111. Kai Q.: 79 (-113)
117. Bhav R. #2: 78 (-114)
117. Ken P.: 78 (-114)
117. Jack Q. #3: 78 (-114)
117. Damian M. #2: 78 (-114)
121. Ben J. #2: 77 (-115)
121. Chris Lu. #1: 77 (-115)
121. Marissa W. #2: 77 (-115)
124. Peter J. #6: 76 (-116)
124. Ben S. #2: 76 (-116)
124. Steve H. #2: 76 (-116)
124. Ally H.: 76 (-116)
128. Eric V. #3: 75 (-117)
128. Jim K.: 75 (-117)
128. Chun W. #4: 75 (-117)
128. Jim D. #1: 75 (-117)
128. Ben J. #1: 75 (-117)
128. Jason G.: 75 (-117)
128. Todd K. #4: 75 (-117)
128. Scott K. #2: 75 (-117)
136. Daisy N. #2: 74 (-118)
136. Damian M. #3: 74 (-118)
136. Hutch H. #1: 74 (-118)
136. Brent E. #3: 74 (-118)
140. Mindi W.: 73 (-119)
140. Mike S. #2: 73 (-119)
140. Chad L. #1: 73 (-119)
140. Michelle L. #1: 73 (-119)
140. Chun W. #2: 73 (-119)
140. Howard S. #1: 73 (-119)
146. Peter J. #2: 72 (-120)
146. John B.: 72 (-120)
146. Kansas C.: 72 (-120)
149. Mason A. #1: 71 (-121)
149. Tomas L. #1: 71 (-121)
149. John E.: 71 (-121)
149. Luis B. #1: 71 (-121)
149. John M. #1: 71 (-121)
149. John M. #2: 71 (-121)
155. William G. #3: 70 (-122)
155. Harrell R. #1: 70 (-122)
155. Shane B.: 70 (-122)
155. Mike G.: 70 (-122)
159. Joseph H.: 69 (-123)
159. Scott H. #2: 69 (-123)
159. Howard S. #2: 69 (-123)
162. Damian M. #1: 68 (-124)
162. Dan D. #2: 68 (-124)
162. William G. #1: 68 (-124)
165. Irene H. #3: 67 (-125)
165. Bret K. #3: 67 (-125)
165. Bret K. #2: 67 (-125)
165. Kirt R. #2: 67 (-125)
165. Alex Q.: 67 (-125)
165. Christy K. #2: 67 (-125)
171. Eric V. #2: 66 (-126)
171. Gary W.: 66 (-126)
171. Ben J. #4: 66 (-126)
171. Julie S.: 66 (-126)
175. Angie B.: 65 (-127)
175. Peter J. #1: 65 (-127)
177. Mason A. #2: 64 (-128)
177. Taima B. #1: 64 (-128)
177. Daisy N. #5: 64 (-128)
180. Michelle L. #4: 63 (-129)
180. Tomas L. #2: 63 (-129)
180. William G. #4: 63 (-129)
180. Dylan B.: 63 (-129)
184. Jay H. #1: 62 (-130)
184. Brian G. #1: 62 (-130)
186. Hutch H. #3: 61 (-131)
186. Tim N.: 61 (-131)
186. James R.: 61 (-131)
189. Jack Q. #4: 60 (-132)
190. Michelle R. #2: 59 (-133)
190. Marc R.: 59 (-133)
192. John M. #3: 58 (-134)
192. Michelle R. #1: 58 (-134)
194. Scott K. #1: 57 (-135)
194. William G. #2: 57 (-135)
194. Marissa W. #3: 57 (-135)
197. Jeff W.: 56 (-136)
197. Sue L.: 56 (-136)
197. Missy W. #2: 56 (-136)
200. Jack Q. #2: 55 (-137)
201. Jay H. #2: 54 (-138)
202. Daisy N. #3: 52 (-140)
202. Brian G. #2: 52 (-140)
204. Jack Q. #1: 40 (-152)
205. Sally R.: 36 (-156)
206. Jonathan O.: 24 (-168)


Daisy N. #4 was never lower than 39th place after any one day of the tournament (After Day 4).  Looking back at the early rounds, it highlights how somewhat irrelevant they are.  The leader after Day 1 was Peter J. #6 with 14 points.  He finished in 124th place.  As a matter of fact, no one that was in the top 20 after the first day won any money, and only one bracket that was in the top 20 after the first day (Todd K. #2) actually finished in the Top 20 at the end of the tournament.

The leader after the first round was Brent E. #4 with 28/32.  He wound up finishing in 82nd place.  Jonathan M. #1 has a real good run at the top of the standings, finishing at the top of the standings after the 2nd round (Sweet 16).  He finished 86th.  I probably make this case every year, but there isn't much reason to get too excited about being at the top of the standings earlier on in the tournament.

On the flip side, there is always hope as long as you are still alive for places.  For example, Brent S. #1 was mathematically eliminated from getting 1st place after the sweet 16, but still managed to finish in 2nd place.  That's some pretty good resilience.

Here are some more fun stats to read through:

Best finish for someone I've actually met:  Daisy N. #4 (1st)
Best finish for someone I've never met : Brent S. #1 (2nd)
Best finish for someone in my family: Michelle L. #3 (8th)
Best finish for someone that only entered one bracket: Szecho L. (3rd)
Best finish for someone totally eliminated at the Sweet 16: Irene H. #1 (18th)
Best finish for someone that didn't pick the champion: Mark N. #2 (4th)
Worst finish for someone that did pick the winner: Luis B. #3 (23rd)
Best finish for someone that picked Kentucky: Todd K. #3 (12th)
Best finish for someone with nobody correctly in the Championship game: Alyssa B. (64th)
Of the 4 people that had both teams picked correctly in tonight's game, only Mark N. #2 managed to finish in the money.  All of them had Wisconsin winning.
Average points per bracket: 85.01
Average points per bracket last year: 62.81

It was a fun year for me.  A lot worked out administratively for me.  It may have been a pain to send me PDF's or Excel versions of your picks, but it made my workload a whole lot easier to enter.  It also made it much, much easier for me to keep track of who has paid (something I've struggled with in the past).  A lot of the stats that I was able to provide, I also was able to program in Excel over the last few years, making it much, much less of a manual exercise for me.  That has allowed me to provide more stats.  I especially liked to provide the stats for every team that was alive at the Sweet 16.  I hope everyone enjoyed that.  I think that will be a recurring idea for next year.  I was happy with the turnout.  I can handle as much data as Excel can handle (which is a lot).  I got exactly zero entries from people at my new job, so 206 was a pretty decent number.  I hope you all enjoyed it and invite others to play again next year.  I'll be doing the Bowl pool again in the winter, so look for that.  Until then....  Enjoy the summer and thanks for playing!!!!!!