National Semifinal edition

Good evening.  I was looking at last year's data in preparation for this year's Final 4.  If you recall, last year the Final 4 featured Wisconsin, Florida, Kentucky and Connecticut.  Two of them are back in this year's Final 4, and the other two failed to make the tournament at all.

Last year the Final 4 featured a 1 seed, a 2 seed, a 7 seed and an 8 seed.  Obviously, that was harder to predict than this year's 3 #1 seeds and a #7 seed.  How much harder you ask?  Well, I looked at the numbers and it was pretty much night and day.

For example, Mark N. #1 was in the lead going into the Final 4.  He had a whopping 83 points.  This year that would be good enough for a tie for 49th place.  Mark also managed to get exactly zero games right from then on and finished in 4th place.  There's no chance of that happening this year.  You pretty much have to get all 3 games right to place this season.

Speaking of getting no games right, the current leader in points, Todd K #3 has 106.  That already would have been good enough for 2nd last season if he doesn't get another point.  I think that makes my point about the predictability of this tournament compared to last.

On a side note, I actually agree with Geno Aurriemma about the state of men's college basketball.  It's pretty ugly to watch a lot of the time.  I don't know how many times I've watched teams miss wide open layups or play just ugly offense.  Teams like Cincinnati or West Virginia or even (I'm sad to say) San Diego State play as if an offensive rebound is their best offensive play.  I'm still a huge fan, but the product could use some fixing.

Anyway, there are 2 big games tomorrow, and that means more eliminations.  Since there are 2 games, the number of possible outcomes is the same, so here are the 2-dimensional outcomes:

If Kentucky & Duke win:

Alyssa B. is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.

Bobby H. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.

Chad L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Dan S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Dennis R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Jay K. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Joe K. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Marissa W. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Mark N. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Rich F. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Szecho L. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Todd K. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 4th place contention.

Todd K. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Todd K. #4 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

If Kentucky & Michigan State win:

Bobby H. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brandon H. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Chad L. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Daisy N. #4 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Dan S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Dennis R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Jay K. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Kye G. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Marissa W. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Mark N. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 3rd & 4th place contention.

Rich F. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Szecho L. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Todd K. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.

Todd K. #3 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Todd K. #4 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Veronica A. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

If Wisconsin & Duke win:

Alyssa B. is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.

Brandon H. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.

Brent S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Chad L. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Dan S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Joe K. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Kye G. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Marissa W. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Rich F. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Todd K. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 4th place contention.

Todd K. #3 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Todd K. #4 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Veronica A. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

If Wisconsin & Michigan State win:

Alyssa B. is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.

Bobby H. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brandon H. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Brent S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Chad L. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Daisy N. #4 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Dennis R. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Jay K. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Joe K. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Kye G. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Marissa W. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Mark N. #2 is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Szecho L. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.

Todd K. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Todd K. #3 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Veronica A. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

So, a lot will be decided tomorrow.  By tomorrow night, at most 8 people will still be alive in the pool.  I'm hoping that the top seeds mean that the games will be well played.  Since I'm pretty much out of it, that's the best I can hope for.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!