Monday, April 8, 2019

Virginia Wins!!!!!


We’re finally done!!  I know the first weekend of the tournament was terrible, but the last two weekends have just produced some spectacular basketball games.  Almost all of them were exciting and tonight’s game was no exception.  Virginia wound up winning in overtime thanks in large part to being able to make free throws.  I always like teams that make free throws, and I think Virginia went something like 14/14 in overtime from the line.

For those curious about the final points standings, here they are:

1. Jay H. #1: 158 (-34) - Virginia
2. Klei R. #1: 151 (-41) - Virginia
3. Stefon K.: 149 (-43) - Virginia
4. Michelle L. #2: 141 (-51) - Virginia
5. Joel B. #7: 137 (-55) - Virginia
5. Matt M.: 137 (-55) - Virginia
7. Scott K. #1: 132 (-60) - Virginia
8. Howard S.: 128 (-64) - Virginia
9. Chris M.: 127 (-65) - Virginia
9. Ken Pom: 127 (-65) - Virginia
11. Daisy N. #5: 126 (-66) - Virginia
12. Daisy N. #8: 125 (-67) - Virginia
13. Alexander N. #4: 124 (-68) - Virginia
13. Mike W.: 124 (-68) - Virginia
15. Irene H. #2: 123 (-69) - Virginia
16. Adam E. #2: 122 (-70) - Virginia
17. Chrissy I: 121 (-71) - Virginia
17. Daisy N. #7: 121 (-71) - Virginia
17. Gigi I: 121 (-71) - Virginia
20. Ray W. #2: 120 (-72) - Virginia
21. Ben J. #1: 119 (-73) - Virginia
21. Todd K. #4: 119 (-73) - Virginia
23. Adam E. #1: 118 (-74) - Virginia
23. Chris T. #3: 118 (-74) - Virginia
25. Josh D. #3: 116 (-76) - Kentucky
25. Jim W.: 116 (-76) - Michigan State
25. Daisy N. #4: 116 (-76) - Virginia
28. Elizabeth N. #3: 115 (-77) - Virginia
29. David W.: 114 (-78) - North Carolina
30. Alexander N. #1: 112 (-80) - Virginia
30. Alexander N. #3: 112 (-80) - Virginia
30. Bhav R. #2: 112 (-80) - Virginia
33. Pete J. #5: 111 (-81) - Virginia
34. Alex I: 110 (-82) - Virginia
35. Joel B. #5: 104 (-88) - North Carolina
36. Todd K. #1: 101 (-91) - Michigan State
37. Daisy N. #15: 100 (-92) - Virginia
38. Niren D.: 99 (-93) - Duke
39. Nick V.: 98 (-94) - Duke
39. Chris T. #4: 98 (-94) - Gonzaga
39. Stephen H.: 98 (-94) - Michigan State
42. Ben S. #2: 97 (-95) - Texas Tech
43. Brent S. #4: 96 (-96) - Duke
43. Todd K. #3: 96 (-96) - Michigan State
43. Ben S. #4: 96 (-96) - North Carolina
46. Nate S. - 538: 95 (-97) - Duke
46. Ben J. #4: 95 (-97) - Texas Tech
46. J. Mack #3: 95 (-97) - Virginia
49. Jeff Sagarin: 94 (-98) - Duke
50. Alex P.: 93 (-99) - Auburn
50. Wayne D. #2: 93 (-99) - Duke
50. Brent E. #1: 93 (-99) - Michigan State
50. Michelle L. #4: 93 (-99) - North Carolina
54. Dennis R. #1: 92 (-100) - Duke
54. Irene H. #4: 92 (-100) - Michigan State
56. Daisy N. #1: 90 (-102) - Duke
56. Damien R. #2: 90 (-102) - Duke
56. Joel B. #2: 90 (-102) - Duke
56. Karim D.: 90 (-102) - Duke
56. Valerie D.: 90 (-102) - Duke
56. Daisy N. #9: 90 (-102) - Gonzaga
62. Pete J. #2: 89 (-103) - Duke
62. Brent E. #4: 89 (-103) - Michigan State
62. Klei R. #2: 89 (-103) - Texas Tech
65. Chris T. #1: 88 (-104) - Duke
65. Scott Her. #2: 88 (-104) - Duke
65. Daisy N. #6: 88 (-104) - Houston
65. Jay K.: 88 (-104) - Michigan State
65. Joel B. #1: 88 (-104) - Michigan State
65. Todd K. #2: 88 (-104) - Michigan State
65. Washington Post: 88 (-104) - Michigan State
72. Elizabeth N. #1: 87 (-105) - Gonzaga
72. Sagarin Plus: 87 (-105) - North Carolina
74. Max A. #2: 85 (-107) - Gonzaga
75. Elizabeth N. #2: 84 (-108) - Duke
75. Dennis R. #2: 84 (-108) - Michigan State
77. Josh S. #1: 83 (-109) - Duke
77. Josiah T. #4: 83 (-109) - Duke
77. Ben S. #3: 83 (-109) - Gonzaga
77. Max A. #1: 83 (-109) - Gonzaga
77. Hutch H. #2 : 83 (-109) - North Carolina
82. Szecho L. #2: 82 (-110) - Gonzaga
82. Brent S. #2: 82 (-110) - Kentucky
82. Becky H.: 82 (-110) - Michigan State
82. Joel B. #6: 82 (-110) - Michigan State
86. James G. #1: 81 (-111) - Duke
86. Brad R.: 81 (-111) - Gonzaga
86. Rob I #1: 81 (-111) - Gonzaga
86. Hutch H. #1: 81 (-111) - Kansas
86. Alexander N. #5: 81 (-111) - Michigan
86. Ben S. #1: 81 (-111) - North Carolina
92. Alexander N. #2: 80 (-112) - Duke
92. Daisy N. #17: 80 (-112) - Michigan
92. Taima B. #2: 80 (-112) - North Carolina
95. Carlos B. #2: 79 (-113) - Duke
95. Scott Her. #1: 79 (-113) - Duke
95. Brent E. #2: 79 (-113) - Michigan State
95. Brent S. #3: 79 (-113) - North Carolina
95. Dylan B.: 79 (-113) - North Carolina
100. Kirt R. #1: 78 (-114) - Gonzaga
100. Josiah T. #2: 78 (-114) - North Carolina
100. Scott K. #2: 78 (-114) - North Carolina
103. Michelle L. #3: 77 (-115) - Gonzaga
103. Kevin F. #3: 77 (-115) - Kentucky
103. Chris T. #2: 77 (-115) - North Carolina
103. Damien R. #3: 77 (-115) - North Carolina
103. Michelle R.: 77 (-115) - North Carolina
108. Andy P.: 76 (-116) - Duke
108. Irene H. #6: 76 (-116) - Kentucky
108. Ally H.: 76 (-116) - North Carolina
108. David S.: 76 (-116) - North Carolina
112. Dan C.: 75 (-117) - Duke
112. Irene H. #1: 75 (-117) - Duke
112. Mason A. #1: 75 (-117) - Duke
112. Ben J. #3: 75 (-117) - Gonzaga
112. Brent E. #3: 75 (-117) - North Carolina
112. Irene H. #7: 75 (-117) - Tennessee
118. Daisy N. #2: 74 (-118) - Duke
118. Pete J. #1: 74 (-118) - Duke
120. Jason S.: 73 (-119) - Duke
120. Irene H. #3: 73 (-119) - Kentucky
120. Jay Bilas: 73 (-119) - North Carolina
120. Matt N.: 73 (-119) - North Carolina
120. Harrell R. #2: 73 (-119) - Tennessee
125. Alyssa B.: 72 (-120) - Duke
125. Ray W. #5: 72 (-120) - Duke
125. Taima B. #1: 72 (-120) - Duke
125. Carlos B. #1: 72 (-120) - Michigan
125. Stephanie P.: 72 (-120) - Michigan
130. Brent S. #1: 71 (-121) - Duke
130. Craig G.: 71 (-121) - Duke
130. Kirt R. #2: 71 (-121) - Duke
130. Veronica A.: 71 (-121) - Duke
130. Mark D.: 71 (-121) - North Carolina
130. Pete J. #3: 71 (-121) - North Carolina
130. Brian K.: 71 (-121) - Tennessee
137. Ben W. #2: 70 (-122) - Duke
137. Joe D. #1: 70 (-122) - Duke
137. Ray W. #3: 70 (-122) - Duke
140. Harrell R. #3: 69 (-123) - Duke
140. Tomas L.: 69 (-123) - Houston
140. Rich W.: 69 (-123) - Kentucky
140. Daisy N. #13: 69 (-123) - North Carolina
140. Mike S. #1: 69 (-123) - North Carolina
145. Adam S.: 68 (-124) - Duke
145. Ben J. #2: 68 (-124) - Duke
145. Daisy N. #11: 68 (-124) - Duke
145. Joe D. #2: 68 (-124) - Duke
145. Josh D. #2: 68 (-124) - North Carolina
145. Daisy N. #10: 68 (-124) - Tennessee
151. Ben P.: 67 (-125) - Duke
151. Luis B. #2: 67 (-125) - Duke
151. Josiah T. #3: 67 (-125) - Gonzaga
151. Bret K. #2: 67 (-125) - Michigan State
151. Chad L.: 67 (-125) - North Carolina
156. Jim D. #1: 66 (-126) - Duke
156. Kate G.: 66 (-126) - Duke
156. Kevin F. #1: 66 (-126) - Duke
156. Mike S. #2: 66 (-126) - Gonzaga
156. Josh S. #2: 66 (-126) - Kentucky
156. Dustin B.: 66 (-126) - Tennessee
162. Joel B. #4: 65 (-127) - Duke
162. Josiah T. #1: 65 (-127) - Duke
162. Daisy N. #14: 65 (-127) - Kentucky
162. Daisy N. #16: 65 (-127) - Michigan State
162. Tim N.: 65 (-127) - North Carolina
167. Jason L.: 64 (-128) - Duke
167. Luis B. #1: 64 (-128) - Duke
167. Pete J. #4: 64 (-128) - Gonzaga
167. Daisy N. #3: 64 (-128) - North Carolina
167. Jim D. #2: 64 (-128) - North Carolina
167. Tristan E.: 64 (-128) - North Carolina
167. Wayne D. #3: 64 (-128) - North Carolina
167. Rob I #2: 64 (-128) - Tennessee
175. Jacob A.: 63 (-129) - Duke
175. Wayne D. #1: 63 (-129) - Gonzaga
175. Irene H. #5: 63 (-129) - North Carolina
178. Craig McG.: 62 (-130) - Duke
178. Dan D. #2: 62 (-130) - Duke
178. Jay H. #2: 62 (-130) - Duke
178. Marc R.: 62 (-130) - Duke
178. Mike N.: 62 (-130) - Duke
183. Steve Dz.: 61 (-131) - Florida State
183. Bret K. #3: 61 (-131) - Gonzaga
183. Daisy N. #12: 61 (-131) - Houston
183. J. Mack #2: 61 (-131) - Kentucky
187. Bhav R. #1: 60 (-132) - Duke
187. Damien R. #1: 60 (-132) - Duke
187. E. Rucker #1: 60 (-132) - Duke
187. Janahan A.: 60 (-132) - Duke
187. Ryan W.: 60 (-132) - Duke
187. Szecho L. #1: 60 (-132) - Duke
187. Bret K. #1: 60 (-132) - Kansas
187. E. Rucker #2: 60 (-132) - LSU
195. Damien R. #4: 59 (-133) - Duke
195. Michelle L. #1: 59 (-133) - Duke
195. Noah N.: 59 (-133) - Duke
195. Molly R.: 59 (-133) - Gonzaga
195. Michelle L. #5: 59 (-133) - Kentucky
195. Nikolajs B.: 59 (-133) - LSU
195. Ryan P.: 59 (-133) - Michigan
195. Bryce S.: 59 (-133) - North Carolina
195. James G. #2: 59 (-133) - North Carolina
195. Jim P.: 59 (-133) - North Carolina
195. Regina L.: 59 (-133) - Tennessee
206. Jackson I: 58 (-134) - Duke
206. Jared B.: 58 (-134) - Duke
206. Jaxon S.: 58 (-134) - Duke
206. Jessica McG.: 58 (-134) - Gonzaga
206. William G. #1: 58 (-134) - Michigan
211. Dan D.: 57 (-135) - Duke
211. J. Mack #1: 57 (-135) - Duke
213. Josh D. #1: 56 (-136) - Duke
213. Ben W. #1: 56 (-136) - North Carolina
215. Tim D.: 55 (-137) - Duke
215. Mason A. #2: 55 (-137) - North Carolina
217. Kiah H.: 54 (-138) - Duke
217. Brett W.: 54 (-138) - North Carolina
219. Joel B. #3: 53 (-139) - Tennessee
220. Nick I: 51 (-141) - Washington
221. Ray W. #4: 50 (-142) - Tennessee
222. Ray W. #1: 49 (-143) - Duke
222. Harrell R. #1: 49 (-143) - North Carolina
222. William G. #2: 49 (-143) - North Carolina
225. Zach T.: 47 (-145) - Duke
226. Kevin F. #2: 46 (-146) - Kentucky
227. Dan D. #1: 45 (-147) - Oregon

The 158 points that Jay H. #1 won with would have won every year that I’ve been keeping track of.  The next closest was 2012 when Kentucky beat Kansas.  The 4th place score of 141 would have won or tied for 1st in 5 of the last 7 years as well, so this was a pool that you couldn’t just luck into a top 4 finish.  You really had to pick well.

And nobody picked better than Jay H. #1 this year.  I was looking at his probabilities of winning from the Sweet 16 on, and he needed to survive no less than 6 “must win” games to win this pool.  If he had lost any of these games, he wouldn’t have gotten 1st place:

Texas Tech over Michigan
Texas Tech over Gonzaga
Virginia over Purdue
Virginia over Auburn
Texas Tech over Michigan State
Virginia over Texas Tech

Looking at the probabilities, there was really only one game that did not go his way (Purdue over Tennessee).  All other games either improved his chances or didn’t affect them either way.

I always say no to sweat the early games, and Jay H. #1 is a good reason why.  He only got 11/16 on Day 1, putting him in 163rd place.  He was only in 117th place after the first round was finished.  He was only slightly better (106th) after the 2nd round was finished.  He only got 5 of the Elite 8, but managed to get 3 of the Final 4 and was the only person to get both Texas Tech and Virginia in the finals – with Virginia winning.  So, he came on late after a sketchy start.  I always say that’s the way to win.  Pick a semi-dark horse to do something, and hope that they actually do it.  I think that Texas Tech to the finals, but no further was the difference maker.  Congratulations Jay!

I’ll be in touch with everyone to determine how they want to be paid out.  I had a great time this year running the pool.  I think things went really smoothly, and I hope everyone had fun.  Picking Virginia proved to be a good idea, although I was really hoping that they wouldn’t make their games so stressful to watch.  That’s all part of the fun though.

So, the blog will go into hibernation until the college football bowl season comes around again in December.  Everyone have a great summer, stay safe, and I hope to see everyone again next year.

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