Championship game set

 That North Carolina / Duke game really lived up to the hype.  I thought it was fantastic.  One big shot after another.  A few free throws one way or the other could have pushed the game in either direction.  I was really glad I didn’t have hundreds of potential dollars riding on the outcome of that game because I would have been a wreck.

But some people had hundreds of dollars riding on it.  We are down to one game left, and there are two things I know for sure: Mike W. and Ryan W. are going to win something.

Here’s how it breaks down, for those that care.  I always say that this pool looks like you are competing against 200+ people, but because of how it’s scored you are only really competing against people that picked the same team to win as you.  Given the final game is worth as much as all 32 games in the first round, there really isn’t much chance of winning without getting the winning team right (more on this later).  This year, if you have Kansas winning it all, as 20 people do, if they win the top 4 of those 20 are in line to get the 4 payouts.  Makes sense.

Most years, both teams in the final game have enough people picking them that you can count the top 4 entries with the right team and that’s the winner.  That may not be the case this year.  North Carolina was an 8 seed coming into the tournament, and wasn’t supposed to make it past Baylor in the second round.  That means only one person picked North Carolina to win it all.  As you would expect, if North Carolina actually wins it all, then that one person (John M. #3) will win.

If you ever needed more proof that you absolutely have to pick the winner to win this pool, look no further than John M. #3.  He has about a 50/50 shot at winning because he’s the only person to take North Carolina.  The rest of his Final 4 was Tennessee (lost in 2^nd round), Providence (lost in 2^nd round) and Connecticut (lost in 1^st round).  Think about all the points he lost to the field because of those games, and yet, here he is.

Since only one person took North Carolina to win, if they actually win, it doesn’t much matter anymore if you picked to win the pool anymore, since no one else is getting those points.  As a result, 2^nd, 3^rd & 4^th essentially go to the top 3 entries in points right now.  Since Mike W. is currently in 1^st place, he’ll fall to 2^nd getting passed by John M. #3.  Ryan W. is currently in 3^rd.  He would fall to 4^th.  So, regardless of the outcome those 2 guys will get something.  They both picked Kansas to win, so they will win more money if they actually do win, but they are going to get something.

The last payout spot is interesting because it could belong to Kristin G.  She had Kansas in the Championship game, but she had them losing to Gonzaga.  Therefore, if Kansas wins, she’ll get passed by all the people that picked Kansas and win nothing.  However, if North Carolina wins, all those Kansas people will get nothing and she’ll only fall from 2^nd in points to 3^rd.

It may seem strange that someone who didn’t pick the champion could still get 3^rd, but if Kansas loses, those people didn’t pick the champion either.  It’s a tiebreaker.  You look at who picked the champion.  If there aren’t 4 people that picked the champion, you go down one level and look at who picked the winner of the semi-final games.  That’s where we would be.

So, here are the outcomes depending on who wins on Monday night:

If North Carolina wins:

John M. #3 wins 1^st place.

Mike W. wins 2^nd place.

Kristin G. wins 3^rd place.

Ryan W. wins 4^th place.

 

If Kansas wins:

Mike W. wins 1^st place.

Ryan W. wins 2^nd place.

Craig G. wins 3^rd place.

Dustin B. wins 4^th place.

 

If you want to see the matrix, here it is:

Name	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place
Mike W. - Kansas	50.0000%	50.0000%	St. Peter's	St. Peter's
Ryan W. - Kansas	St. Peter's	50.0000%	Miami-Florida	50.0000%
Kristin G. - Gonzaga	Arkansas	Arkansas	50.0000%	Miami-Florida
Craig G. - Kansas	St. Peter's	Duke	50.0000%	St. Peter's
Dustin B. - Kansas	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas	50.0000%
John M. #3 - North Carolina	50.0000%	Miami-Florida	Houston	Houston

Enjoy the Finals!!!!  It promises to be really, really good!!!!