Bowl Pool 2015 - 2 games done.

We have results!!!!  2 of the first 3 games are finished and there's some good news and some not so good news.  The good news first.  All but 3 people are on the board.  41/44 people have gotten at least 1 game right.  14 people have managed to go 2/2, although at least 3 of those people only have 3 points to show for their efforts.  In other good news, we've had our first "upset" of the bowl pool season.  North Carolina A&T was picked by <50% of the pool, so that counts as an upset.  If you've followed along with this pool in the past, you know how much I love a good upset.  I wouldn't say this one was particularly good, but it counts and I'll take it.

It looks like the Utah / BYU game is turning into a slugfest, only BYU is the only one getting slugged.  I won't tally that game until the clock runs out, but if you picked the Utes, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that you are probably going to be able to count those points for you.

Without any further ado, here are the first standings of the season.  If you remember from years past, the tiebreaker at this point is how many points you've lost, so someone with 25 (-10) is going to be ranked ahead of someone 25 (-30).  The first number is the number of points won, and the second number is the number of points in games you have lost:

1. Becky H.: 47 (0)

2. Jim W.: 45 (0)

3. Roth W. #1: 42 (0)

3. James R.: 42 (0)

5. Jay H. #3: 41 (-1)

6. Scott H. #2: 40 (0)

6. Dan D.: 40 (0)

8. Ray R.: 40 (-1)

8. Brent E. #1: 40 (-1)

8. Brent E. #2: 40 (-1)

8. Adam E.: 40 (-1)

12. Scott H. #1: 39 (-1)

13. Brad R.: 38 (-39)

14. Mike S. #2: 36 (0)

15. Marc R. #2: 35 (-1)

16. Dave M.: 35 (-2)

17. Brent S. #1: 35 (-12)

18. Craig G.: 34 (-1)

19. Klei R.: 34 (-15)

20. Mike S. #1: 33 (-1)

21. Michelle L. #1: 31 (0)

22. Marc R. #1: 29 (-1)

23. Chris L.: 29 (-14)

24. Ally H.: 26 (0)

25. Matt N.: 26 (-3)

26. Brent S. #2: 24 (-13)

27. Dustin B.: 22 (-11)

27. Brett W.: 22 (-11)

29. Ryan W.: 17 (-15)

30. Nichole W.: 16 (0)

31. Dylan B.: 15 (-5)

32. Damien R. #1: 15 (-10)

33. Pete J. #2: 10 (0)

34. Jay H. #1: 9 (-2)

35. Mike W.: 9 (-8)

36. Ashley D.: 6 (-5)

37. Roth W. #2: 3 (0)

37. Mindi W.: 3 (0)

37. Jay H. #2: 3 (0)

40. Pete J. #1: 1 (-9)

41. Michelle L. #2: 1 (-12)

42. Damien R. #2: 0 (-8)

43. Tim N.: 0 (-21)

44. Sally R.: 0 (-39)

This second ranking is based on net points (points won - points lost).  This is a good relative measure of how well your sheet is doing.

1. Becky H.: 47

2. Jim W.: 45

3. Roth W. #1: 42

3. James R.: 42

5. Jay H. #3: 40

5. Scott H. #2: 40

5. Dan D.: 40

8. Ray R.: 39

8. Brent E. #1: 39

8. Brent E. #2: 39

8. Adam E.: 39

12. Scott H. #1: 38

13. Mike S. #2: 36

14. Marc R. #2: 34

15. Dave M.: 33

15. Craig G.: 33

17. Mike S. #1: 32

18. Michelle L. #1: 31

19. Marc R. #1: 28

20. Ally H.: 26

21. Brent S. #1: 23

21. Matt N.: 23

23. Klei R.: 19

24. Nichole W.: 16

25. Chris L.: 15

26. Brent S. #2: 11

26. Dustin B.: 11

26. Brett W.: 11

29. Dylan B.: 10

29. Pete J. #2: 10

31. Jay H. #1: 7

32. Damien R. #1: 5

33. Roth W. #2: 3

33. Mindi W.: 3

33. Jay H. #2: 3

36. Ryan W.: 2

37. Mike W.: 1

37. Ashley D.: 1

39. Brad R.: -1

40. Pete J. #1: -8

40. Damien R. #2: -8

42. Michelle L. #2: -11

43. Tim N.: -21

44. Sally R.: -39

It's a real family affair for me as both my Mom and Dad have lost a top 10 team in the first 2 games.  That's a rough way to start.  No guts, no glory!!!  Bet big, win big!!!  At least that's what they tell you at the casino.

There are 3 more games left to go today, so let's have an overview of those:

The Camellia Bowl, which I think is a flower, but maybe a lizard of some kind.  I really don't know.  It pits proverbial powerhouses Ohio U. and Appalachian State.  It turns out that I have t-shirts from both of those schools.  Actually, I have T-shirts from 10/12 teams that play today, which my wife repeatedly tells me is a sign of my growing college t-shirt addiction.  I bet you can guess which 2 teams I don't have.

Here's the breakdown of the picks:

Appalachian State: 35 (Mean = 19.69)

Ohio U:  9 (Mean = 16.22)

The median pick is Appalachian State for 13 points.  The mean pick was Appalachian State for 12.34 points.  This game was the game with the highest standard deviation of the picks, meaning that it hopefully is a good game for spreading the field out a little bit.  I hope the game is good, although I doubt I'll watch much of it.

The 5th game of the day is the Cure Bowl, which I'm probably not going watch for a different reason, and that is that it's on an obscure network that I may or may not have on my TV.  It's on the CBSSN, which I can't remember watching and am almost positive I have never looked for.  I initially thought this game was sponsored by the 80s alt-emo band The Cure.  My second thought was that this game was sponsored by Susan G. Komen, but it appears that even that was wrong, as it the technical name for this bowl is the Autonation Cure Bowl.  I think that Susan G. Komen is still involved somehow, since the promo I saw was decked out all in pink, making it the strange intersection of breast cancer, football and car parts.  That's a combination you don't often see.

Speaking of something you don't often see, San Jose State is 5-7 and was invited to this bowl.  I thought the NCAA had some pretty strict rules about being bowl eligible.  Actually, I thought the rule was pretty well established that you needed 6 D1 wins.  I remember a few years ago when Georgia Tech made it to a bowl with a losing record, and people were openly wondering if that was fair.  At least then, they were 6-7.  I' really don't understand how 5-7 gets you to a bowl game.

Apparently it didn't stop people from taking them.  Here are the picks:

San Jose State: 23 (Mean = 13.48)

Georgia State: 21 (Mean = 13.14)

The median pick was San Jose State for 2 points.  The mean pick was San Jose State for 0.77 points.  At least 3 people on each side took this game as a top 10 game, which ought to make for an interesting watch for them.  For the rest of us, not so much.  This game is the 2nd lowest wagered game we have (after the first game of the season).

But the non-stop zombie walk of bowl games continues with the last game of the day. This promises to be better than the Cure Bowl, but not much better.  It is the game with the 3rd lowest wagered points on it.  It's the New Orleans Bowl and it features Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech and probably large sections of the Superdome closed off from ticket purchase.  Actually, these two schools are probably not bad choices, geographically.  I shouldn't be so hard on the New Orleans Bowl.  Here are the specifics:

Louisiana Tech:  27 (Mean = 13.11)

Arkansas State:  17 (Mean = 13.94)

The median pick was Louisiana Tech for 4.5 points.  The mean pick was Louisiana Tech for 2.66 points.  At least 4 people have Louisiana Tech in their top 10, while 2 have Arkansas State.

So, not a lot of points at stake today, but it's only the first day.  We will only be 1/7 way done with the games and only 10.40% of the total available points doled out.  I doubt anyone will be eliminate based on this day only.  It may make the pathway to the to a little harder, but not impossible.

Good luck to everyone!!!!

Bowl Pool 2015 - Games #2 & #3.

I was looking through the games overall and I have some good news.  First off, everyone filled out their sheets correctly.  A few people didn't include a tiebreaker, but there is so much time between the last Bowl game and the Championship game, that I can get the information in that time if I need it.  Given my loathing for tiebreakers, I'm hoping that I don't need it.  There are 891 total points per sheet, so the idea that 2 of them would finish with exactly the same score seems like low odds.

In other good news, there are no games where everyone took the same side.  At least 2 people took every team.  That's good to see.  It means that there's usually something at stake in every game.

For those that wonder why I use the median pick when I look at each game, I think it's more useful than the mean pick, since the picks aren't uniformly distributed across all points.  The way I like to think of it is that if say the median pick of a game is Team X for 20 points.  If took Team Y of Team X for less than 20 points, you probably want Team Y to win, since that means you will be gaining ground on more than half of the field.  That's not always the case, but it's a good rule of thumb.

So, the second game of the day today overlaps with the first game.  The second game is the New Mexico Bowl, and despite the fact that this is essentially a home game for New Mexico, only 5 people took them to win.  Maybe that's because the point spread was Arizona -8.5.  The median pick for this game was Arizona for 27.5 points.  As I mentioned in the first post, this is the game with the most points wagered on it today, even though it only ranks #16 in overall points.  22 people have Arizona in their top 10 teams, while only one brave soul took New Mexico to be in their top 10 (Sally R.).  That's a brave pick, and if it comes through, it will be a huge boon to her chances to win this thing.  I like that kind of brave picking.

The third game of the day is the Las Vegas Bowl featuring Utah vs. BYU.  This seems like a blood rivalry to me, and it makes me wonder why they don't actually play during the regular season.  I think this game also featured the best odds of a bench clearing brawl as Utah has publicly accused BYU of playing dirty.  That could make this game either interesting or sad to watch depending on your opinion of bench clearing brawls.  Unfortunately, the points distribution doesn't make this seem like it's going to get many people to the TV to watch it, as there are only 707 points wagered on this game.

The median pick is Utah for 6.5 point (the mean is Utah for 9.02 points).  28 people took Utah (average points = 19.71) and 16 took BYU (average points = 9.69).  No one took BYU as a top 10 team.   There are only 2 people that even have BYU for even as much as 17 points (James R for 27, Ally H for 25).  So, even the BYU fans, aren't really that rabid of BYU fans.  There are 7 people that have Utah in their top 10 including 2 people that have them as their top pick (Ray R., Scott H. #1).  The funny thing is that Scott H. is Ally H.'s Dad, so I hope that doesn't make things uncomfortable in that house.  Just remember, it's all for fun everyone.  :)

I'll be back later with the first score update and some more analysis of the later games.  Good luck to everyone!!!!

Bowl Pool 2015 - First game preview

Welcome to the Bowl Pool 2015.  The games begin today, and there are six games going on, so we are going to be off to a fast start.  Turnout was a little lower this year than last year, as we had a total of 44 entries versus the 56 we had last year.  That makes the total prize money of $220.  Since we didn't make it to 50 entries this year, I'll only be paying out 2 places.  The winner will get $165, and 2nd place will get $55.  That's still pretty good.  I'll be pretty happy if I actually win that.

For me, the fun of the pool is the fact that I have a reason to watch some of these games.   A lot of the time, I would probably totally ignore some of these games, actually, most of these games.  There are a total of 42 games this year versus 39 from last year.  Honestly, there may have been even more bowl games, but the site I used only listed 42.  These games grow like weeds.

From the looks of things, people weren't too enthusiastic to wager a lot on the games today.  The game with the most points wagered on it today is the New Mexico Bowl, and that is only 16th in points.  The others are way down the list:  The Camelia Bowl is next at 26th, followed by the Las Vegas Bowl at 36th, and then the three lowest points totals in the whole pool as the other three games (New Orleans, 40th, Cure, 41st, Celebration, 42nd).

The first of the game of the day could not be any more irrelevant to most people.  The Celebration Bowl kicks off the Bowl season, and if the picks are any indication, most people don't know what to make of this game, nor do they care.  The distribution of the picks is:  Alcorn State (28 picks, 6.89 points average), North Carolina A&T (16 picks, 7.44 points average).  This is one of the new bowls this season, and if you watch any of it, you are a better person than I am.  The median pick for this game is Alcorn State for 1 point.  The website I use didn't even bother posting a point spread for this game, and they usually have a point spread for everything.  That's how off the radar this game is.  Honestly, I'm not even sure what state Alcorn State is in, and for all I know North Carolina A&T is a corporate team consisting of AT&T road crews.  As if you needed more proof that this game means nothing, it has the lowest points wagered on it, and it's not even close.  There is only 312 points wagered on this game.  The next lowest is 586 points.  I guess it's a good way to ease our way into the Bowl season.

For those that are worried about whether I got your picks, here is a list of the picks that I have in the pool.  I won't be accepting any more since games already started:

Adam E.

Ally H.

Ashley D.

Becky H.

Brad R.

Brent E. #1

Brent E. #2

Brent S. #1

Brent S. #2

Brett W.

Chris L.

Craig G.

Damien R. #1

Damien R. #2

Dan D.

Dave M.

Dustin B.

Dylan B.

James R.

Jay H. #1

Jay H. #2

Jay H. #3

Jim W.

Klei R.

Mandi W.

Marc R. #1

Marc R. #2

Matt N.

Michelle L. #1

Michelle L. #2

Mike S. #1

Mike S. #2

Mike W.

Nichole W.

Pete J. #1

Pete J. #2

Ray R.

Roth W. #1

Roth W. #2

Ryan W.

Sally R.

Scott H. #1

Scott H. #2

Tim N.

I'll have some more info on the later games and updated scores throughout the day.  I'll probably take a few breaks.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!