NCAA March Madness - All entries are in!!!!

All right!!!  I finally got everyone's brackets entered into my master scoring spreadsheet.  I think this is a first for me - I actually get to watch at least half of the first game.  I want to thank the people that used the spreadsheet that I sent out with the pool announcement.  It may not have been necessarily easier to use than some other brackets on line, but it cuts down the time I need to transcribe the picks into my master scoring spreadsheet by about 90% - and eliminates any possible errors by me.  It really helps out.  Outside of tracking down payments, entering the picks into a spreadsheet for scoring is the thing that takes the most time.

But who cares about that?  Games are on - right now!!!  It looks like the powers that be decided to be kind to us and offer up some potential upsets right away, as both opening games are 12/5 matchups.   If you went on line for any kind of advice, you would see that at least one of these games results in an upset almost every year.  The 12 seed of choice this year was Middle Tennessee State, who had 120 people pick them to win vs. only 104 taking Minnesota.

Those that can do the math will no doubt see that we have 224 entries into the field this year.  This is slightly more than last year, which comes as a bit of a surprise to me, since my old company, Pratt & Whitney, shuttered the plant site I used to work at.  Luckily, a lot of my old co-workers were still able to enter, but there's nothing like a giant office building to gather brackets quickly.

All right, here are the pick distributions for the first 2 games:

Notre Dame: 197

Princeton: 27

This actually turned to be the most lopsided of the 12/5 games.  No love for the Ivy League this year, I guess.  That may be a mistake.  The Ivy League has a good track record in the opening rounds.  I think a big reason for that is because up until this year, they didn't have a tournament to decide the automatic bid.  I'm not a big fan of that.  I'd rather the regular season champ makes it.  I like to reward consistency over the course of a season as opposed to just getting hot over the course of a few games.

The second game looks like we may be primes to see our first upset -- NC Wilmington currently is only down 1 point at halftime to Virginia.  The picks were:

Virginia:  178

NC Wilmington: 46

I'm going to see if I can find Tru TV to watch the second half.  I'll be back shortly with some more stats and the pick distributions for the second set of games.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!

Original e-mail introduction.

Hello again everyone....  I sent out a message at the start of March to get everyone to start paying attention to College Basketball, and the big day is finally here.  They've announced the 68 teams and everyone is now free to start picking games until they tip off on Thursday morning.

I've attached an Excel spreadsheet that has the brackets as drop down menus.  It's an improvement on last years model, and it also has the added benefit of making scorekeeping much, much easier for me.  You can use it if you want, or you can send me a PDF of a sheet you've entered elsewhere - actually you can enter anyway you want just so long as I know who you have winning in what rounds, I can work with it.

The rest of this message is the same as the earlier one, so if you've already read it, you don't have to again.  Good luck to everyone!!!!

Klei

Hello again everyone.  If you look at your calendar, you will probably notice that it is currently March.  That means that March Madness is just around the corner.  I’ve had another year to relax in preparation for this tournament, but I’ve been watching a lot of basketball so far this season and I’m really curious about how this tournament will be played out.  Much like last year, it looks like the field is wide open, which makes for a more fun pool, as it keeps people alive for longer.

 

For those that are getting into the pool for the first time, let me give you a little introduction.  I’ve been running this pool since 2006, and it has grown almost every year.  In 2005, I put together a spreadsheet so that I could tell if my entry in a pool had any chance of winning (or what had to happen to keep me from being eliminated).   After that, I figured I could provide that type of information to anyone in a pool, as well as provide some rough probabilities of winning at various stages of the tournament.  Every year, I spend the first Thursday and Friday at my brother’s place in front of 4 screens watching a ton of basketball, eating bad food and scoring all of the entries.  After the opening weekend, I am able to generate preliminary probabilities of getting all of the payouts.  I can also tell if and when entries are eliminated from contention for the various payouts.  It makes it much more interesting than just figuring out who has the most points at any particular time.

 

Changes

 

There are some changes to the pool this year.  The first involves entering on-line.  In years past, I've set up a Yahoo account and then an ESPN account for entering on line.  Two years ago, I asked people to forward PDFs of their on-line entries so I could get a jump on entering them into my spreadsheets.  This year, I am making that my sole method of entry.  You MUST send me an e-mail with your entries and how you intend to pay for them.  The single worst part of running this pool is the bookkeeping around entries.  This way makes me job on that front much easier.

 

Tracking Entries

 

As with last year, I am keeping a blog where I am writing all of the information that I would have been emailing in years past.  This is easier and more convenient for me.  There is an icon on the site if you want email updates whenever I post anything if you still like the email notification.  The site is located at: http://kleisports.blogspot.com/.  There is no password required.

 

Who can Enter

 

Basketball fans…  Fans of pools….  Anyone with five bucks…..  Anyone can enter.  Feel free to forward this on to anyone that wants to enter.  All are welcome as long as they follow the instructions laid out here.  You can enter as many times as you want.  There is no limit to the number of entries.

 

How to Enter

 

There are a few ways to enter.  The easiest way is to print out a bracket, fill it out and hand it to me.  I recently (like last week) got a new job, so I haven't moved into my new office yet in the new building, so I'm not as available as I usually am.  If you happen to be where I am for some reason, feel free to flag me down and hand me your entries.

 

You can fill out a sheet and send me a scanned version.  You can do this via Yahoo or ESPN, or any other place that allows you to print out brackets.  Just make sure that you let me know how you are going to pay for it when you send me the sheet.

 

I also will send out a spreadsheet with drop-down menus that you can use to fill out the brackets.  That is a pretty straightforward way to enter as well (especially if I modify them the way I want to).

 

 

Play-in Games

 

I think this is a hidden value and as these pools get bigger they may make a bigger difference to who wins.  There are 4 play-in games that go off on Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

The NCAA calls them “1^st round games”, but my cold, lifeless body will be 6 feet underground before I call them that.  They are play-in games.  Whatever you call them, if you want to pick one of those teams to advance, you essentially get whoever wins that game.  For instance, a few years ago, if you liked Iowa to advance to the Sweet 16, you still got points for Tennessee advancing because Tennessee beat Iowa in the play-in game.  I think that at least one team from the play-in game makes the Sweet 16 most years and VCU made it to the Final 4 as a play-in winner.  That’s a lot of points to leave on the table.

 

Tiebreaker

 

I never like deciding places via a tiebreaker, but sometimes 63 games aren’t enough to determine who gets what, so I need one.  The tiebreaker is the total points scored in the championship game.  The winner of the tiebreaker is the entry that is closest to the actual number of points, regardless of whether or not it is higher or lower.

 

How to pay

 

The cost is $5 per entry.  There are no volume discounts or anything like that.

 

There are a few ways to pay, but I’ll accept most types of payment except for PayPal.  I had everyone use that a few years back and it got flagged for “suspicious activity”.  That seems so strange since I never use my Paypal account except for about a week where I would receive a ton of activity in $5 increments.  Anyway, I don’t use PayPal since I don’t want my account frozen.

 

You can pay in cash. Cash always works.

 

If you want to mail me payments or set up a payment from your bank, here’s my address:

 

Klei Richards

1882 Black Mustard Lane

Carlsbad, CA 92011

 

I personally prefer if you set me up as a payee if you use on-line banking.  The bank consolidates all the checks that I get that way.  It makes it slightly easier for me.

 

As I mentioned above, you MUST send me an email with your entry and how you intend to pay for it.

 

Venmo also seems to work (bj_nittmo@yahoo.com).

 

Deadlines

 

The deadline for entry is tip off of the first game on Thursday, March 16th.  Brackets will be released on Sunday, March 12^th. 

 

Scoring

 

The scoring is the same as it’s been in years past.  There will be 32 points available in each round for a total of 192 points in all.  That means that every game you get right on the opening Thursday and Friday will be worth 1 point, every game on the opening Saturday and Sunday will be worth 2 pts.  It also means that picking the Champion gets you 32 points.  With a pool as big as mine has turned into, you almost certainly need to get the winner right to have any chance at the money.

 

Payouts

 

Last year, I paid out 4 places.  I said that if I managed to get 250 entries, I would pay out 5 places.  I pay out everything that I take in, so this whole escapade is charity work on my behalf.  If I pay out 4 places, the breakdown will be: 1^st – 50%, 2^nd – 25%, 3^rd – 15%, 4^th – 10%.  If it turns out to be 5 places, the breakdown will be: 1^st – 45%, 2^nd – 25%, 3^rd – 15%, 4^th – 10%, 5^th – 5%.  I won’t know what the actual dollar amounts will be until I know how many entries I have.

 

I think that more or less covers everything.  If you’ve read all the way through this, congratulations!!!  It’s a bit of a long-winded message, but there’s a lot of information in there that people have asked about in the past as well as things that have caused me grief in the past.  I hope everyone can join.  It promises to be a fun tournament.  I’ll be hoping for a ton of upsets.  That always makes for a fun tournament.  I don’t like it as much when all the higher seeds win.  I actively discourage people from entering a bracket only by the seeds.  My favorite day of the tournament is selection Sunday, and my second favorite day is the day all gutless brackets are mathematically eliminated from any money.  I really can’t stand those types of picks.

 

Good luck to everyone!!!!

 Klei

NCAA Bowl Pool - Fat lady walking off the stage edition

Today was the decisive day for the Bowl Pool.  With one game to go, 1st and 2nd place have been decided.  The Championship game essentially means nothing in terms of the payouts.  It might mean something to Ash D., Kevin F. #2 & Ray R, who all took Clemson to win it all, but for the vast majority that took Alabama, there will be little deviation between what the rankings look like now and what they will look like a week from today.

Somewhat surprisingly, 1st place was decided before 2nd place this year.  As I mentioned in the last post, if Wisconsin and Florida both win, Mark ESPN will win the pool.  Both of those things happened, so Mark ESPN won the pool.  It was a little bittersweet for me as I really wanted Western Michigan to win.  That game knocked the formidable Brent E. #1 & #2 out of the money, leaving a potential Iowa miracle the only thing keeping Pete J. #1's 1st place hopes alive.  After Florida sealed the win, Mark ESPN was the winner with 3 games to go.  There was no way for anyone to catch him for 1st.

That still left 2nd place up for grabs, coming down to 2 people, Pete J. #1 & Nick B.  Nick B. needed a USC win to stay alive in the Rose Bowl.  After a back and forth game there, USC finally won the game, setting up a winner take all showdown in the Sugar Bowl.

In the Sugar Bowl, the difference maker was the points picked by each player.  Both people chose Oklahoma, but Pete J. #1 had then for 22 points, and Nick B. had them for 10.  If Oklahoma win, Pete J. #1 would get 2nd place.  If Auburn won, Nick B. would take it.

Now that the Oklahoma victory is sealed, that means that Pete J. #1 took 2nd, although he had to sweat it out a little.  He could have win with a Penn State victory, but he get 2nd place all the same.  Congratulations Pete J. #1.  I know he's been entering my pools for a long time, and it's nice to send some money to (I think) the only person that enters from Hawaii every year.

Anyway, here are the points standings as of tonight......

1. Mark ESPN: 647 (-214)

2. Pete J. #1: 620 (-241)

3. Brent E. #1: 617 (-244)

4. Marc S.: 613 (-248)

5. Nick B.: 612 (-249)

6. Dave M.: 602 (-259)

7. Brent E. #2: 596 (-265)

8. Scott Her. #2: 592 (-269)

9. Stephanie P.: 591 (-270)

10. Roth W.: 582 (-279)

11. Josiah T. #2: 580 (-281)

12. Mike W.: 579 (-282)

13. Mason A.: 571 (-290)

14. Mike S.: 568 (-293)

14. Hal R. #1: 568 (-293)

16. Adam E.: 567 (-294)

17. Michelle L. #2: 563 (-298)

18. Tim N.: 560 (-301)

19. Brent S.: 557 (-304)

20. Hal R. #2: 556 (-305)

21. Hutch H.: 551 (-310)

22. Matt N.: 547 (-314)

23. Michelle L. #1: 541 (-320)

24. Freitag B.: 539 (-322)

25. Ray R.: 533 (-328)

26. Damien R.: 532 (-329)

27. Kevin F. #1: 529 (-332)

28. Marc R.: 527 (-334)

29. Pete J. #2: 524 (-337)

29. Scott Her. #1: 524 (-337)

29. Jay H. #3: 524 (-337)

32. Jim P.: 519 (-342)

33. Deborah G.: 512 (-349)

34. Ben S.: 507 (-354)

34. Dylan B.: 507 (-354)

36. Kevin F. #2: 502 (-359)

37. Josiah T. #1: 499 (-362)

38. Klei R.: 498 (-363)

39. Dan S.: 490 (-371)

40. Scott H.: 486 (-375)

40. Ryan W.: 486 (-375)

42. Jay H. #1: 484 (-377)

43. Chad L.: 476 (-385)

44. Julie S.: 472 (-389)

45. Becky H.: 467 (-394)

46. Brad R.: 448 (-413)

47. Dustin B.: 440 (-421)

48. Dorthea R.: 436 (-425)

49. Jay H. #2: 425 (-436)

50. Dan Dz.: 416 (-445)

51. Brett W.: 411 (-450)

52. Dan Du.: 404 (-457)

53. Jim W.: 382 (-479)

54. Ally H.: 367 (-494)

55. Nichole W.: 322 (-539)

56. Ash D.: 293 (-568)

So, this year's Bowl Pool was a little anti-climactic for me.  As I've said a few times now, I usually only enter the "experts" picks so that I can laugh at them and use them as a selling point to get more people to play.  It's no fun when the "expert" wins because it makes it seem like there's not a lot of randomness to the games.  I want people that don't know much about college football to enter and feel they have a decent chance.  An outcome like this one makes that a little bit of a harder sell.

For some pool-ending stats, it looks like favorites went 28-13, which is actually something I would think was good.  I love upsets.  They make the pool more interesting when someone takes them and wins.  IT encourages people to take chances.  By my count, there were 5 upsets where Vegas had the line at a TD or more (Idaho / Colorado State, Wake Forest / Temple, Minnesota / Washington State, Baylor / Boise State & Hawaii / Middle Tennessee).  In those games, the big winner was Dorthea R., who nailed 4/5 for 81 total points.  I think that kept her sheet alive quite a while.  Good picking there.

As for the total number of wins, Mark ESPN finished with 30.  There was a 3-way tie for 2nd with Dave M. , Brent E. #1 & Brent E. #2 with 29.  I also keep track of the games that people have listed a "Top 10" pick based on points.  The average sheet this year got 6.18 of those games right for 226.93 points.  No one managed to get through all of those games unscathed, but one person managed to go 9/10.  That person was Stephanie P., who only missed Temple / Wake Forest.  Good picking there by Stephanie P.

Stephanie P. was also the highest placing woman this year, finishing 9th.  Unfortunately, she also has the distinction of being the best finisher for someone that was mathematically eliminated from the very first time I ran the numbers.

So, another year is done for the Bowl Pool.  I don't think I like the schedule where they cram 9 games in 2 days at the end.  I don't typically send out mid-day updates, so it makes it hard to know where you stand during the day.  Next year, I'll try to see if I can get Google Docs to work, so I can share the scoresheet I use with everyone.  That way, anyone can score at home if they are so inclined.  I can also share the sheets that I use when I'm calculating the probabilities for 1st and 2nd.  That way, you can determine for yourself what teams you need to win the various places.  I'm guessing most of you won't, but for those that are heavily invested, it can be fun.

Enjoy the Championship Game net Monday.  I'm going to spend the next few months prepping for the NCAA March Madness pool....

See you then!!!!