Upsets!!! We have upsets!!!!

 We have some results, and we have some upsets.  I’m liking the way this tournament is shaking out.  We are only a few games in and a recurring theme has showed up.  The theme is that the NCAA is an oligopoly.  The Power 5 conference teams are keeping very talented mid-major and smaller conference teams down by not scheduling them ever and then pointing to the fact that they didn’t play anybody good as a reason that they shouldn’t be in the tournament.  We saw it with Miami (Ohio) in the First 34 games and we just saw it again in High Point beating Wisconsin.

In the post game interview on court that was the first point the High Point brought up, and he brought it up over and over again.  I totally agree with him and I think it makes the game worse.  It makes me so much happier that High Point beat Wisconsin.  There would be about 0% chance Wisconsin would schedule High Point during the regular season.  Once again, a very good mid or small conference team beats a mediocre power 5 team, and all of America (save for people in Wisconsin) are on board with High Point.

As an aside, I was watching the end of the game, and I feel like Wisconsin ran exactly one play in the last 5 minutes, but they ran it over and over again.  The problem was that the last 2 times they ran it, it didn’t work – which makes sense when the other team knows exactly what you are going to do.  As soon as Nick Boyd had the ball for Wisconsin, I said to my brother – “There’s no way he’s passing this”.  Not because he shouldn’t have passed it, but because that was the only play they were running.  Crazy.

So, there are 4 games over, and we are down to 11 people that went 4/4.  I’m gonna guess that no one goes 16/16 today.  I’m hoping not at least.  Good times.

For those that don’t remember, I rank based on points won, and the tie breaker is points lost.  Later, I’ll put out the net point rankings, which are more indicative of a bracket’s health.  Right now, it doesn’t mean a ton.

1. Ally Her. #2: 4 (0) - Florida

1. Becky Her. #1: 4 (0) - Michigan

1. Chrissy S.: 4 (0) - Arizona

1. DAZE 5: 4 (0) - Duke

1. Don’t Coog It: 4 (0) - Houston

1. Finn D.: 4 (0) - Michigan

1. Gary: 4 (0) - Arizona

1. Josiah Tru: 4 (0) - Duke

1. Kylee Tru: 4 (0) - Duke

1. Matt Hoag.: 4 (0) - Michigan

1. Paul Kr.: 4 (0) - Michigan

12. Andrew D. #1: 3 (-1) - Arizona

12. Andrew D. #2: 3 (-1) - Duke

12. Brent E. #5: 3 (-1) - Florida

12. Brent E. #6: 3 (-1) - Michigan State

12. Chris Min.: 3 (-1) - Michigan

12. Dani A. #1: 3 (-1) - Arizona

12. DAZE 3: 3 (-1) - Florida

12. DAZE 6: 3 (-1) - Michigan State

12. DAZE 8: 3 (-1) - Arizona

12. Eric D.: 3 (-1) - Utah State

12. Got Cluffed: 3 (-1) - Purdue

12. Irene 2: 3 (-1) - Houston

12. Irene 4: 3 (-1) - Duke

12. Jaxon S.: 3 (-1) - Florida

12. Jim W: 3 (-1) - Houston

12. Marc R. #1: 3 (-1) - Arizona

12. Marc R. #2: 3 (-1) - Michigan

12. Mason A. #2: 3 (-1) - Michigan

12. Matt H.: 3 (-1) - Connecticut

12. Matt Meis.: 3 (-1) - Michigan

12. Muccmars-2: 3 (-1) - Iowa State

12. Patrick McC. #1: 3 (-1) - Arizona

12. Pete J. #1: 3 (-1) - Michigan

12. Pete J. #4: 3 (-1) - Duke

12. Rob I. #1: 3 (-1) - Gonzaga

12. Scott Her. #1: 3 (-1) - Arizona

12. Steve Mucc #6: 3 (-1) - Michigan

39. Andy Mil.: 3 (-3) - Illinois

39. Brent E. #2: 3 (-3) - Michigan State

39. Brent E. #3: 3 (-3) - Arizona

39. DAZE 2: 3 (-3) - Purdue

39. Elizabeth N. #2: 3 (-3) - Arizona

39. Elizabeth N. #3: 3 (-3) - Arizona

39. Ely A. #1: 3 (-3) - Arizona

39. Irene 6: 3 (-3) - Florida

39. Jackson I. Freak: 3 (-3) - Gonzaga

39. Kirt R. #2: 3 (-3) - Michigan

39. Paul W.: 3 (-3) - Arizona

39. Rich Fron.: 3 (-3) - Duke

39. Scott Her. #2: 3 (-3) - Michigan

52. Beau H: 3 (-7) - Iowa State

52. Faye Niem.: 3 (-7) - Duke

52. Mike Lu #1: 3 (-7) - Purdue

55. Brent E. #4: 3 (-15) - Michigan

55. Steve Mucc #5: 3 (-15) - Alabama

55. Tina H: 3 (-15) - Alabama

58. Andrew D. #3: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Andrew D. #4: 2 (-2) - Iowa State

58. Andrew Simm.: 2 (-2) - Arkansas

58. April Kohn.: 2 (-2) - Michigan

58. Barack O.: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Ben Sil. #1: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Bill Pr. #1: 2 (-2) - Duke

58. Brandon H: 2 (-2) - Michigan

58. Bret Torvik: 2 (-2) - Duke

58. Brian Kerb.: 2 (-2) - Iowa State

58. CAAT #1: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. CAAT #2: 2 (-2) - Duke

58. CAAT #3: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. CAAT #4: 2 (-2) - Florida

58. CAAT #5: 2 (-2) - Michigan

58. Charlotte Niem.: 2 (-2) - Florida

58. Chris T.: 2 (-2) - Michigan

58. Cicely Kohn.: 2 (-2) - Duke

58. COOL GUY: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Damien R. #1: 2 (-2) - Texas Tech

58. DAZE 4: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. DAZE 7: 2 (-2) - Houston

58. DAZE 9: 2 (-2) - Michigan

58. Dianna Alv.: 2 (-2) - Tennessee

58. Dylan Bow.: 2 (-2) - Michigan

58. Gutless Bracket: 2 (-2) - Duke

58. Harrell Rob. #1: 2 (-2) - Iowa State

58. Harrell Rob. #4: 2 (-2) - Florida

58. Howard S. #1: 2 (-2) - Illinois

58. Hutch H. #1: 2 (-2) - Kansas

58. Irene 3: 2 (-2) - Duke

58. Jackson I.: 2 (-2) - Duke

58. Jacob Able Chalk: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Jared Bock: 2 (-2) - Iowa State

58. Jason St. #2: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Jay Bilas: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Jay Hum. #1: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Jay Hum. #2: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Jordan Hu.: 2 (-2) - Houston

58. Ken Pom: 2 (-2) - Duke

58. Kirt R. #1: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Klei R. #1: 2 (-2) - Duke

58. Klei R. #2: 2 (-2) - Houston

58. Leuder 2: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. LinVinSanity #2: 2 (-2) - Michigan State

58. Luis B. #2: 2 (-2) - Duke

58. Luis B. #4: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Marlee Talb.: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Mary Lou H: 2 (-2) - Duke

58. Mason A. #1: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Matt Niem.: 2 (-2) - Michigan

58. Max70 #2: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Mike Barata: 2 (-2) - Florida

58. Mike Lu #2: 2 (-2) - Florida

58. Mike Lu #3: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Mike Lu #4: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Noah N.: 2 (-2) - Houston

58. Patrick McC. #2: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Patrick McC. #4: 2 (-2) - Michigan

58. Pete J. #5: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Ray Min.: 2 (-2) - Houston

58. Rob I. #2: 2 (-2) - Iowa State

58. Rock Chalk Not Jayhawk: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Scarlett H: 2 (-2) - Iowa State

58. Stan Ch.: 2 (-2) - Arizona

58. Steve Mucc #3: 2 (-2) - Connecticut

58. Szecho L. #3: 2 (-2) - Iowa State

58. Tucker D.: 2 (-2) - Gonzaga

126. Addie H: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Aloysius #2: 2 (-4) - Arizona

126. Becky Her. #2: 2 (-4) - Purdue

126. Brandon Br. #1: 2 (-4) - Florida

126. Brandon Br. #3: 2 (-4) - Kansas

126. Brent Sw. #1: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Dani A. #2: 2 (-4) - Iowa State

126. Dave Sr.: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. egavala2: 2 (-4) - Arizona

126. Elizabeth N. #1: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Ella D.: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Fly Eagles Fly: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Harrell Rob. #2: 2 (-4) - Arizona

126. Howard S. #2: 2 (-4) - Michigan

126. Hutch H. #2: 2 (-4) - Arizona

126. Irene 5: 2 (-4) - Michigan

126. Irene 8: 2 (-4) - Illinois

126. Jacob Able: 2 (-4) - Iowa State

126. Jeff Wr.: 2 (-4) - Florida

126. Jim Del.: 2 (-4) - Michigan

126. Karen Chao #1: 2 (-4) - Arizona

126. Klei R - Baysian: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Leuder 3: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Leuder 4: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Missy Wyt. 1: 2 (-4) - Florida

126. Missy Wyt. 2: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Pete J. #3: 2 (-4) - Michigan

126. Pete J. #6: 2 (-4) - Florida

126. Roth W.: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Scott Kohn. #1: 2 (-4) - Arizona

126. Seth Davis: 2 (-4) - Arizona

126. Shanky G.: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Shaun Turn.: 2 (-4) - Connecticut

126. Shawn D.: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Steve Dziub. #1: 2 (-4) - Florida

126. Steve Dziub. #2: 2 (-4) - Iowa State

126. Szecho L. #1: 2 (-4) - Duke

126. Szecho L. #2: 2 (-4) - Louisville

126. Tim Dziub. #2: 2 (-4) - Arizona

126. Tim Talb.: 2 (-4) - Michigan

126. Valerie D.: 2 (-4) - Arizona

167. Aloysius #1: 2 (-6) - Arizona

167. Brent E. #1: 2 (-6) - Michigan

167. Brent E. #7: 2 (-6) - St. John's

170. Adam Yankee: 2 (-8) - Houston

170. Craig Gerul.: 2 (-8) - Michigan

170. Dan Dziub.: 2 (-8) - Duke

170. DAZE 1: 2 (-8) - Michigan

170. Jace D.: 2 (-8) - Furman

170. Jo D.: 2 (-8) - Hawaii

170. Karen Chao #2: 2 (-8) - Michigan

177. Brandon Br. #2: 2 (-10) - Iowa State

178. Brent E. #8: 2 (-14) - Michigan

179. Steve Mucc #7: 2 (-64) - Ohio State

180. Ben Sil. #2: 1 (-3) - Arizona

180. Bryce Sel.: 1 (-3) - Illinois

180. Chris Elm.: 1 (-3) - Houston

180. Church On Time: 1 (-3) - Arizona

180. Derek H: 1 (-3) - Florida

180. Elliot N.: 1 (-3) - Arizona

180. Gigi I.: 1 (-3) - Duke

180. Harrell Rob. #3: 1 (-3) - Houston

180. Irene 1: 1 (-3) - Arizona

180. Irene 7: 1 (-3) - Iowa State

180. Jason St. #1: 1 (-3) - Kansas

180. Leuder 1: 1 (-3) - Michigan

180. LinVinSanity #1: 1 (-3) - Duke

180. Luis B. #1: 1 (-3) - Arizona

180. Luis B. #3: 1 (-3) - Arizona

180. Luis B. #6: 1 (-3) - Arizona

180. Mark Sp. #1: 1 (-3) - Arizona

180. Max70 #1: 1 (-3) - Michigan State

180. Michelle L. #1: 1 (-3) - Duke

180. Michelle L. #2: 1 (-3) - Florida

180. Michelle L. #3: 1 (-3) - Michigan

180. Michelle L. #4: 1 (-3) - Arizona

180. Michelle L. #5: 1 (-3) - Houston

180. Mike Lu #5: 1 (-3) - Houston

180. Mike Wiech.: 1 (-3) - Florida

180. Sarah Chao: 1 (-3) - Purdue

180. Scott Kohn. #2: 1 (-3) - Connecticut

180. Stefon K.: 1 (-3) - Duke

180. Tyler Chr.: 1 (-3) - Arizona

180. Zach V.: 1 (-3) - Arizona

210. Ally Her. #1: 1 (-5) - Duke

210. Amber Dolly: 1 (-5) - St. John's

210. Bill Pr. #2: 1 (-5) - Arizona

210. Brad Rich.: 1 (-5) - Florida

210. Brent Sw. #2: 1 (-5) - Arizona

210. Colston: 1 (-5) - Duke

210. Damien R. #3: 1 (-5) - Duke

210. Eric V.: 1 (-5) - Iowa State

210. Erin Mucc.: 1 (-5) - Florida

210. Josh Ch. #2: 1 (-5) - Duke

210. Lizard: 1 (-5) - Arizona

210. Luis B. #5: 1 (-5) - Arizona

210. Mike Niem.: 1 (-5) - Duke

210. Muccmars 1: 1 (-5) - Connecticut

210. Patrick McC. #3: 1 (-5) - Arizona

210. Pete J. #2: 1 (-5) - Duke

210. Wayne Der. #1: 1 (-5) - Arizona

210. Wayne Der. #2: 1 (-5) - Arizona

210. Wayne Der. #3: 1 (-5) - Duke

210. Wayne Der. #4: 1 (-5) - Michigan

230. Brent E. #9: 1 (-9) - Purdue

230. Leighton Niem.: 1 (-9) - Michigan

230. Mitchell Slu.: 1 (-9) - Connecticut

230. Steve Mucc #4: 1 (-9) - Purdue

234. Josh Ch. #1: 1 (-17) - Michigan

235. Daniel Ell.: 1 (-19) - Michigan

235. Reid D.: 1 (-19) - Texas A&M

237. Mark Sp. #2: 1 (-25) - Purdue

264. Billy Egn.: 0 (-4) - Duke

264. Dawn Tru: 0 (-4) - Michigan

266. Damien R. #2: 0 (-6) - Duke

266. Tim Dziub. #1: 0 (-6) - Florida

268. Jacob Able Upsets: 0 (-8) - Arizona

268. Tim N.: 0 (-8) - Arizona

270. Ryan Wiech.: 0 (-10) - Duke

271. egavala1: 0 (-24) - Duke

But wait, there are 4 more games!!!!

Game 5: Duke vs Siena

Vegas Line: Duke -27.5

Picks for Duke: 243

Picks for Siena: 2

This game was supposed to be such a blow out that Vegas wouldn’t let you bet on Siena to win straight up.  It was probably more than 100/1.  It didn’t make any financial sense fore Vegas to post a line that high.

That, my fiends, is why they play the games.  It is currently 17:30 to go in the game, and Siena is up by 13.  They have been up almost the entire game.  I always say that when Duke loses and when the gutless brackets get knocked out (a bracket picked only by the seeds).  I could get both at the same time if this carries on.  It’s crazy.  Go Saints!!!!!!

Game 6: Vanderbilt vs McNeese

Vegas Line: Vanderbilt -12

Picks for Vanderbilt: 208

Picks for McNeese: 37

Remember last year, when almost no chalk lost in the first round?  Well, one team did, and that was Clemson who lost to McNeese.  Well, they are back.  12 seems like a lot of points given how good McNeese is.  This looks like another one of those games where McNeese has a chip on their shoulder.  I’m sure no power 5 conference team wanted anything to do with them during the regular season.  They were up most of the first half, but it’s considerably tighter now.

Game 7: Michigan State vs North Dakota State

Vegas Line: Michigan State -16

Picks for Michigan State: 240

Picks for North Dakota State: 5

Yikes.  There is a lot of Spartan love in this pool.  I guess that doesn’t surprise me too much.  I know a lot of people from Michigan, plus Tom Izzo has a pretty good track record in the tournament, despite the fact that he hasn’t won a championship in the last 20 years.  Actually, I think the Mateen Cleeves team was the last Big 10 team to win a Championship overall.  Given that Ohio State and Wisconsin have already lost, that doesn’t bode well for the Big 10.  Then again, I think there was a marked difference between the top of the Big 10 and the middle.   Nebraska is also in the Big 10, and they crushed in the first round.

I’ve got nothing on the Bison.  They have a cool logo.  I would’ve rather seen St. Thomas make it out of the Summit league, but whatever.  The Bison are all right – but seem like they are going to get killed here.

Game 8: Arkansas vs Hawaii

Vegas Line: Arkansas -15.5

Picks for Arkansas: 223

Picks for Hawaii: 22

This will be a high pressure game.  I have a 400+ t-shirt collection, and I have almost all D1 schools represented.  I don’t have HBCU schools and about 7-8 schools that are new to D1, but I have a short for everyone else.  On Tuesday, I wore my Texas shirt.  On Wednesday, I wore my Miami (Ohio) shirt.  Today, I am wearing my Hawaii shirt.  I’m hoping they pull an amazing upset.

Ironically, I wind up watching a lot of Hawaii games.  I mentioned that every night, I log all the results from the days games and prepare for the next day’s games.  Well, a lot of the time, Hawaii is playing the last game of the day, so I wind up watching the end of them so I can update everything when it finishes.  They are decent.  Not sure if they have enough to beat Arkansas, who I had as a #2 seed.  Keep hope alive!!!!

245 Entries in MM 2026 - and 1st 4 game preview.

 Whew….  I finally got everyone’s picks entered.  It looks like last year’s boring chalky tournament kept some people from getting in this year, since we have slightly fewer entries.  Maybe I need to do a better job evangelizing.  I’ve largely stopped doing much of that since the tournament was growing every year.  It looks like we need to get some different blood in this thing to keep it growing.

So, to that end, we have a total of 245 entries, which is still a good number by most measures.  Honestly, right now is about the only time the number of people entering makes a difference to me, since I need to create a master scoring spreadsheet – and that takes longer the more people enter.

Speaking of that, I am going to install a new rule from this year on until infinity.  Anyone that enters has to have team names on bracket lines.  Most of you use the template, which does that for you using the drop down menus.  Some people enter handwritten pictures of brackets.  Some people enter PDFs that they got from one web site or another.  Most of those are perfectly fine.  The Excel file auto-formats the data for me, and I got CHATGPT to scan all the rest and format them in a way I can use.  There are 2 exceptions to this that I am no longer going to accept after this year.

1.      I’d never seen this before, but there was a website someone used that kicked out a bracket that didn’t have team names, but had the team mascot picture.  AI, as it exists now, has a really hard time reading that.  It took quite a while to get that to work.  I’m not going take those anymore.

2.      I tell people explicitly NOT to do this in the instructions, but I have accept them up until now, but there need to be team names on bracket lines.  If you just enter the seed number and not the team name, I essentially have to go back and fill out the entire bracket again to load it.  AI absolutely does not know what do with this, no matter howe many instructions I give it.  I am never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever going to accept brackets like that again.

OK.  Enough ranting.  Everything looks like it’s entered that I have.  There were some brackets that had missing picks or picks that were invalid (Team A v Team B with Team C winning).  I have reached out to everyone where UI found this for corrections.  As of right now, I only am waiting on 1 person to correct their brackets and everything will be perfect.

But wait, there are games on.  That’s what we’re all here for – not the ravings of one pool administrator.

Game 1: Ohio State  vs TCU

Vegas Line: Ohio State -2.5

Picks for Ohio State: 152

Picks for TCU: 93

Hey, it’s a classic 8/9 game.  I had this game on as I was entering picks, and it looked like TCU was going to win pretty handily.  I think they were up double digits in the second half., but now there’s only 2 minutes left and it’s a 1 point game.  I guess that’s why It’s an 8/9 game.  As some of you may have noticed, during the season, I have a regular ritual.  Every night, I log all the days games in a spreadsheet and prepare the games for the following day.  Throughout the season, I update a ranking for every team.  Based on that, I had Ohio State as an 8 and TCU as a 10, so this feels about right to me.   For most of the season, I didn’t think either of these teams deserved to be in the dance, but they came on a little at the end of the season.

This is a good differentiator game.  Remember that I pay out $25 to whoever wins each region.  I guarantee this game will cost a whole lotta people this region.  There’s just too many people in and too much commonality for it to not.

Game 2: Nebraska vs Troy

Vegas Line: Nebraska -13

Picks for Nebraska: 216

Picks for Troy: 29

I thought Nebraska should be a 3 and Troy a 13, so you’d think this game might be decent.  If anyone knows anything about Nebraska basketball, it’s the fact that they are the only power 5 conference team that has never won an NCAA game.  Given that they are currently up 30 in the second half, I’m thinking that is going to change.

For those that remember that Troy beat San Diego State in San Diego this season, maybe that was either fool’s gold or maybe San Diego State was not that good at the start of the season (I would have had them in the first 4).  I almost wore my Troy t-shirt today.  Glad I avoided that (I’m wearing my Hawaii shirt instead).

Game 3: Louisville vs South Florida

Vegas Line: Louisville -4.5

Picks for Louisville: 125

Picks for South Florida: 120

I had Louisville as an 8, and South Florida right next to it, so I think South Florida is a little hard done by this seeding.  A more cynical person would say that the committee was giving preferential treatment to teams from a power conference over a mid-major.  I would be one of those people.  I heard that non power-5 conference at large bids were at an all time low this season.  I think there are only 5 (Santa Clara, St. Mary’s, St. Louis and Miami (Ohio)).  That’s kind of ridiculous.  As a neutral spectator, I would rather see teams like Belmont Tulsa or Dayton over middling power 5 teams.  They make things much more fu, and honestly, they are easily just as good.

Anyway, I would like to see the Bulls pull this one off.  Apparently, I am not alone in this wish.  That pick distribution is remarkably even for an 11/6 game.

Game 4: Wisconsin vs High Point

Vegas Line: Wisconsin -10

Picks for Wisconsin: 195

Picks for High Point: 50

I hope this is a fun one.  High Point is one of those teams I really want to see.  They score a ton and have an amazing record.  I thought they should be about one seed line higher than they are.  I think they are considered a “small” college, so not even mid-major.  Still 27-4 is pretty good.   Wisconsin was pretty hot and miss all season.  The Big 10 was pretty top heavy this season, and they were kind of a second tier Big 10 team.  They did have the biggest road win of the season, winning at Michigan, so they can play.  Still, I’d love to see an upset here.

More stats to come.  Enjoy the games for now.  I’ll be back with scores and anything else interesting I can find.

Good luck everyone!!!!!