Final 4 Edition

We are finally headed into the home stretch of this year's March Madness pool.  Conventional wisdom says that it's probably a good strategy to take 2 #1 seeds in the final 4, one mid-top seeded team (a 2 or a 3), and one dark horse.  This year largely went close to that form.  The trick if you are picking so many #1 seeds to make the Final 4 in 3 of the regions, it's tough to turn around and take a dark horse in that 4th region.  Since that was the case this year, only 3 brackets managed to nail all 4 final 4 teams (Todd K. #3, Chad L. #2 and Alyssa B.).  Amazingly, Chad L. #2 can't win the pool because he is in 2nd place in overall points, but has the exact same Championship game as Todd K. #3, who is the only person who has more points.  That kind of sucks.

Unlike yesterday, there weren't too many people that got both games correct on the day.  Only  11 people had Michigan State and Duke both winning today.  Of those 11, 5 of them were already eliminated from all contention, so today was only for bragging right.  That especially sucks for Jim W., who was our leader yesterday in the person with the most points, but eliminated from all contention.  He went 2/2 today to move into 5th place overall in points, but can't possibly finish in the top 4.  Sorry again, Jim.

On the flip side, if you went 0/2 today, you are done.  of the 97 brackets that did this, none are alive for any spots.

In other interesting news, there's no chance that there will be a tie for 1st or 2nd, and there's only one scenario where there can be a tie for 3rd and 4th.  That's good.  I don't like ties.

In other interesting news, there are 2 people who are still alive where I haven't received payment.  One is Szecho L., but he bought me a beer on Friday and told me his payment is in the mail, so I'll probably get it tomorrow or early next week.  The other person is Brandon H.  I'm starting to hope he wins, so I can just pocket the money for myself.  There's no chance on God's green Earth that I am going to pay someone that was trying to stiff me on entree fees if he manages to get 4th place.

Seriously, if you haven't paid your entry fee, you will not be invited to ever play in one of my pools again.  That's pretty much BS.

So, here's the eliminations that happened today:

With Louisville's loss:

April K. (3rd, 4th)

Bhav R. #1 (4th)

Brent S. #1 (3rd)

Brent S. #2 (4th)

Brent S. #3 (2nd)

Carl B. (2nd, 3rd)

Chad L. #2 (4th)

Chris La. #3 (3rd, 4th)

Daisy N. #2 (2nd)

Daisy N. #4 (2nd)

Daryl J. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Irene H. #2 (4th)

Jay K. (3rd, 4th)

Joe R. (2nd, 4th)

Jonathan M. #1 (1st, 3rd)

Kirt R. #1 (3rd)

Larry G. #2 (2nd)

Michelle L. #2 (1st)

Mike S. #1 (4th)

Rich F. #2 (2nd)

Ryan W. (3rd)

Steve K. #2 (4th)

Szecho L. (1st)

Todd K. #2 (3rd)

3rdTodd K. #3 (4th)

Veronica A. (4th)

With Gonzaga's Loss:

Brent E. #1 (2nd)

Brent S. #3 (3rd, 4th)

Chris Lu. #2 (1st)

Christy K. #1 (1st, 2nd, 4th)

Daisy N. #2 (3rd, 4th)

Dan S. (1st)

Irene H. #2 (2nd, 3rd)

Joe R. (3rd)

Jonathan M. #1 (2nd)

Kirt R. #1 (4th)

Larry G. #2 (3rd, 4th)

Marissa W. #1 (4th)

Scottt #1 (1st, 4th)

Steve D. (1st, 2nd, 4th)

Steve K. #2 (1st, 2nd)

Todd K. #4 (3rd)

Tomas L. #1 (4th)

So, virtually every one of the possible combinations of the last 3 games were picked by someone, so most of the probabilities were 12.5%.  There were a few deviations from that.  I mentioned a tie earlier for 3rd and 4th.  That makes the probabilities 12.5 / 2 = 6.75% for that one scenario.  Also, there are 2 people that can win if the team they picked wins it all regardless what happens on the other side of the bracket.  Those 2 are Daisy N. #4 (Duke) and Mark N. #2 (Wisconsin).   All other places are specific to one specific scenario.   Also, Brent S. #1 is Duke-specific for 2nd place (same as Daisy N. #4 for 1st).

Here are the probabilities for 1st place:

1. Mark N. #2 (25%)

1. Daisy N. #4 (25%)

3. Todd K. #2 (12.5%)

3. Brent E. #1 (12.5%)

3. Alyssa B. (12.5%)

3. Todd K. #3 (12.5%)

...and 2nd place:

1. Brent S. #1 (25%)

2. Todd K. #2 (12.5%)

2. Todd K. #3 (12.5%)

2. Jay K. (12.5%)

2. Chad L. #2 (12.5%)

2. Marissa W. #1 (12.5%)

2. Dan S. (12.5%)

...and 3rd place:

1. Marissa W. #1 (12.5%)

1. Chad L. #2 (12.5%)

1. Bobby H. (12.5%)

1. Veronica A. (12.5%)

1. Brent E. #1 (12.5%)

1. Rich F. #2 (12.5%)

1. Brent S. #2 (12.5%)

8. Mark N. #2 (6.25%)

8. Szecho L. (6.25%)

....and 4th place:

1. Todd K. #4 (12.5%)

1. Dennis R. #1 (12.5%)

1. Todd K. #2 (12.5%)

1. Brandon H. (12.5%)

1. Alyssa B. (12.5%)

1. Joe K. #2 (12.5%)

1. Kye G. #1 (12.5%)

8. Mark N. #2 (6.25%)

8. Szecho L. (6.25%)

I guess that's it for now.  Games don't start up again until next Saturday.  Enjoy the time off.  I am going to get some normalcy back in my life.  IT has disappeared down a black hole the last 2.5 weeks.....

Good Luck!!!!!!