Wednesday, April 6, 2016

NCAA Final wrap-up. Best Finals Ever? Top 5 at minimum



Before I get my life back after 3 weeks of basketball and 5 extra pounds compliments of eating too much food and getting too little exercise, I have to write up a finale to the tournament.

This was the second time I witnessed the Final 4 in person, both times in Houston.  I'm not sure if anyone remembers the last time the Final 4 was in Houston, but it was the Kemba Walker year when they Beat Butler in the Finals.  That year (I think) was the worst shooting finals of all time.  I think there was about an 8 minute stretch in the second half of that game when neither team scored.

That was not a problem in this year's Finals.  Both teams did what they needed to do to win the game.  North Carolina lead Villanova in offensive rebounds 16-2  and shot 65% from 3-point range.  Villanova shot almost 60% from the floor overall making it close.  I was thinking that when North Carolina was down 10 with 5+ minutes to go that they were toast.  I give them a lot of credit for coming back.  The three North Carolina hit to tie it up with 5 seconds to go was crazy.  The fans in the stadium went nuts.  I think I had a shocked look on my face for a long while processing what I was watching.  I then thought about how you can conceivably get a pretty good shot off in 5 seconds, which is exactly what happened.  I walked back to the car shaking my head and saying "Wow" over and over again.

What that means in practical terms is that we have a new champion of my annual pool, and it is none other than Jonathan Ochoa of Spain.  I think he might be the only person that entered the pool who was born, raised and currently lives in another country.  He only got in because I used to work with his wife, and she's been a die-hard pool entrant for years.  He only got to enter once because they only had time to fill out one bracket apiece since they were on their way back to Spain when the brackets were due.  I think it goes to show that slightly following the seeds and having a few games go your way is really the secret to winning this pool.

If I look at where Jonathan O. really won this pool, I think it's on Day 6 (the last Day of the Sweet 16).  Jonathan nailed all 4 games that day (North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, Syracuse) .  He was only person that day to get the full 16 points, and it catapulted him from 148th in points to 31st.  It also put him ahead of other people that also had Villanova winning it all.  One of my truisms to winning these things is that you have to take some chances, and those chances have to actually hit.  It looks like that's exactly what happened to Jonathan.  Great picking.

As a result, he will win $530, as all but one person has paid or contacted me about payments.  That's pretty good from an accounts receivable point of view.  Thanks to everyone for that.  Some you took a little longer than I would have liked, but in the end, most people were honest.  I like to see that.

Second place went to Dan Dz., who won in the tiebreaker.  He will win $265.  Missy W. #1 will take third and $159 (although she did enter a gutless bracket - proving that it's almost always better to go with your first instincts).  Howard Szeto will get 4th place of $106, which will tempered by the $50 bet he and I placed with each other as a hedge on our potential winnings (since one of us was going to win something - at least this way we don't both leave empty-handed).

I was looking at the final scores from last year, when Duke beat Wisconsin in the Finals and the winning point total last year was 141, just 2 less than the winning total for this year.  The average of the top 4 last year was 136.4.  This year it was 135.9.  That's amazingly consistent.

Here are the final standings:

1. Jonathan O.: 143 (-49)
2. Dan Dz: 134.5 (-58)
3. Missy W. #1: 134 (-58)
4. Howard S. #2: 132 (-60)
5. Daisy N. #4: 131 (-61)
6. Brian K.: 126 (-66)
7. Stefan K.: 121 (-71)
8. Adam S.: 120 (-72)
9. Jeff D.: 114 (-78)
10. Ben J. #4: 113 (-79)
11. Steve H.: 112 (-80)
12. Klei R. #1: 102 (-90)
13. Kazelli2: 101 (-91)
13. Mike C. #1: 101 (-91)
15. Michelle R.: 100 (-92)
16. James R.: 99 (-93)
16. Jim D. #2: 99 (-93)
18. Irene H. #4: 98 (-94)
19. Hutch H. #3: 97 (-95)
20. Craig G.: 96 (-96)
21. Mike C. #2: 95 (-97)
22. Carl B.: 94 (-98)
23. Jackson I.: 93 (-99)
23. Hutch H. #1: 93 (-99)
23. Ray W. #8: 93 (-99)
26. Mike S. #1: 92 (-100)
26. Wayne D. #1: 92 (-100)
28. Karen C.: 90 (-102)
28. Alyssa B.: 90 (-102)
28. Dustin B.: 90 (-102)
31. Elizabeth N.: 89 (-103)
31. Chun W. #1: 89 (-103)
31. Angie B.: 89 (-103)
34. Gutless Kye: 87 (-105)
34. Gutless Missy: 87 (-105)
34. Gutless Ray: 87 (-105)
34. Jim D. #1: 87 (-105)
34. Rob I. #2: 87 (-105)
34. Dennis R.: 87 (-105)
34. Scott K. #1: 87 (-105)
41. Matt N.: 86 (-106)
41. Brett W.: 86 (-106)
43. Scott H. #2: 84 (-108)
43. Michelle L. #2: 84 (-108)
45. Ray W. #5: 83 (-109)
45. Larry G. #1: 83 (-109)
45. Chad L. #3: 83 (-109)
45. Kristina H.: 83 (-109)
49. Jeff S.: 82 (-110)
49. Missy W. #2: 82 (-110)
49. Jason G. #1: 82 (-110)
52. Harrell R. #3: 81 (-111)
52. Chris M. #1: 81 (-111)
52. Alex I.: 81 (-111)
52. Jay K.: 81 (-111)
52. Pete J. #3: 81 (-111)
52. Julie S.: 81 (-111)
58. Ken P.: 80 (-112)
58. Joe K. #1: 80 (-112)
58. Joel B. #2: 80 (-112)
61. John E. #1: 79 (-113)
61. Chad L. #4: 79 (-113)
63. Carin C.: 78 (-114)
63. Irene H. #3: 78 (-114)
63. Harrell R. #1: 78 (-114)
63. Ava S.: 78 (-114)
63. Bella S.: 78 (-114)
68. Luis B. #1: 77 (-115)
68. Pete J. #2: 77 (-115)
68. Mason A. #2: 77 (-115)
68. Ray W. #2: 77 (-115)
68. Larry G. #3: 77 (-115)
73. Scott H. #1: 76 (-116)
73. Becky H.: 76 (-116)
73. Howard S. #1: 76 (-116)
76. Luis B. #2: 75 (-117)
77. Chris T.: 74 (-118)
77. Pete J. #1: 74 (-118)
77. Roth W.: 74 (-118)
77. Daisy N. #5: 74 (-118)
81. Gary W.: 73 (-119)
81. Angie Bow.: 73 (-119)
81. Kye G. #2: 73 (-119)
81. Taima B. #1: 73 (-119)
81. Damien R. #1: 73 (-119)
81. Larry G. #2: 73 (-119)
81. Daisy N. #1: 73 (-119)
81. Pete J. #4: 73 (-119)
89. Jay H. #2: 72 (-120)
89. Wayne D. #3: 72 (-120)
89. Szecho L. #1: 72 (-120)
89. William G. #1: 72 (-120)
89. Ben J. #3: 72 (-120)
89. John M. #1: 72 (-120)
89. Ben J. #2: 72 (-120)
89. Jim D. #4: 72 (-120)
97. Joel B. #4: 71 (-121)
97. Irene H. #2: 71 (-121)
97. Damien R. #3: 71 (-121)
97. Chris M. #3: 71 (-121)
97. Michelle L. #4: 71 (-121)
102. Kirt R.: 70 (-122)
102. Josh C.: 70 (-122)
102. Joel B. #1: 70 (-122)
105. Todd K. #2: 69 (-123)
106. John B.: 68 (-124)
106. Kansas C. #1: 68 (-124)
106. Ally H.: 68 (-124)
106. Daisy N. #6: 68 (-124)
110. Jim D. #3: 67 (-125)
110. Joel B. #5: 67 (-125)
110. Jenny E.: 67 (-125)
113. Chris L. #1: 66 (-126)
113. Dylan B.: 66 (-126)
113. Chris L. #2: 66 (-126)
113. Irene H. #1: 66 (-126)
113. Tomas L. #2: 66 (-126)
118. Tomas L. #1: 65 (-127)
118. Arianna S.: 65 (-127)
118. Brent E. #2: 65 (-127)
118. Adam E.: 65 (-127)
118. Chris M. #4: 65 (-127)
118. Rob I. #1: 65 (-127)
124. Hutch H. #2: 64 (-128)
124. April K.: 64 (-128)
126. Jay H. #1: 63 (-129)
126. Chad L. #2: 63 (-129)
126. Dan S.: 63 (-129)
126. Ryan W.: 63 (-129)
126. Mike W.: 63 (-129)
126. Dan Du. #1: 63 (-129)
126. Ben J. #1: 63 (-129)
126. Joe D. #2: 63 (-129)
134. Stephanie P. #2: 62 (-130)
134. Brent S. #2: 62 (-130)
134. Taima B. #2: 62 (-130)
134. Mason A. #1: 62 (-130)
138. Jeremy C.: 61 (-131)
138. Jason G. #2: 61 (-131)
138. Presley J.: 61 (-131)
138. Plsczor Team: 61 (-131)
138. Brian S.: 61 (-131)
138. Marissa O.: 61 (-131)
138. William G. #2: 61 (-131)
138. Virginia L. #1: 61 (-131)
146. Taran B.: 60 (-132)
146. Leslie S.: 60 (-132)
146. Joe K. #2: 60 (-132)
146. Mike S. #2: 60 (-132)
146. Michelle L. #1: 60 (-132)
146. Brandon H.: 60 (-132)
146. Joel B. #3: 60 (-132)
146. Stephanie P. #1: 60 (-132)
146. Ray W. #9: 60 (-132)
155. Kazelli3: 59 (-133)
156. Gigi I.: 58 (-134)
156. Brent E. #3: 58 (-134)
158. Chun W. #4: 57 (-135)
158. Brent S. #1: 57 (-135)
158. Ray W. #3: 57 (-135)
161. Danny H.: 56 (-136)
161. Brett K. #2: 56 (-136)
161. Brad R. #1: 56 (-136)
161. Chrissy I.: 56 (-136)
161. Mindi W.: 56 (-136)
166. Wayne D. #2: 55 (-137)
166. Brad R. #2: 55 (-137)
166. Michelle D.: 55 (-137)
166. Tim N.: 55 (-137)
166. Joe K. #3: 55 (-137)
166. Damien R. #2: 55 (-137)
172. Daisy N. #2: 54 (-138)
172. Stan C.: 54 (-138)
172. Ray W. #6: 54 (-138)
172. Eric R. #1: 54 (-138)
172. Lisa M.: 54 (-138)
172. Marc R.: 54 (-138)
172. Chun W. #2: 54 (-138)
179. Michelle L. #3: 53 (-139)
179. Harrell R. #4: 53 (-139)
179. Brent E. #1: 53 (-139)
179. Dave M.: 53 (-139)
183. Harrell R. #2: 52 (-140)
183. Joe D. #1: 52 (-140)
183. Todd K. #1: 52 (-140)
183. Ray W. #7: 52 (-140)
187. Jim K.: 51 (-141)
187. Kansas C. #2: 51 (-141)
189. John M. #2: 50 (-142)
189. Daisy N. #3: 50 (-142)
189. Ron B.: 50 (-142)
189. Jim W.: 50 (-142)
189. Brett K. #1: 50 (-142)
194. Bosun S.: 49 (-143)
194. Scott K. #2: 49 (-143)
194. Paul W.: 49 (-143)
194. Ray W. #1: 49 (-143)
198. Kazelli1: 48 (-144)
198. Irene H. #5: 48 (-144)
200. Chris M. #2: 47 (-145)
200. Todd K. #3: 47 (-145)
202. Szecho L. #2: 45 (-147)
203. Chun W. #3: 44 (-148)
203. John E. #2: 44 (-148)
203. Chris M. #5: 44 (-148)
206. Chad L. #1: 43 (-149)
206. Virginia L. #2: 43 (-149)
206. Eric R. #2: 43 (-149)
209. Jay H. #3: 42 (-150)
210. Brent E. #4: 41 (-151)
210. Jonathan V.: 41 (-151)
210. Klei R. #2: 41 (-151)
213. Dan Du. #2: 38 (-154)


Here are some other stats that I just pulled together:

Final rankings for people that were in 1st place after a given day:

8. Adam S.: 120 (-72)
16. Jim D. #2: 99 (-93)
41. Matt N.: 86 (-106)
52. Harrell R. #3: 81 (-111)
77. Chris T.: 74 (-118)
126. Dan Du. #1: 63 (-129)
138. Brian S.: 61 (-131)

Biggest difference between worst ranking and finish:  193 places (Jeff D. - 202nd after Day 1, 9th overall)
If you were one of the 47 people that entered multiple brackets, here are the best finishes for you:

Missy W.
3
Howard S.
4
Daisy N.
5
Ben J.
10
Klei R.
12
Mike C.
13
Jim D.
16
Irene H.
18
Hutch H.
19
Ray W.
23
Mike S.
26
Wayne D.
26
Chun W.
31
Rob I.
34
Scott K.
34
Michelle L.
43
Scott H.
43
Chad L.
45
Larry G.
45
Jason G.
49
Chris M.
52
Harrell R.
52
Pete J.
52
Joe K.
58
Joel B.
58
John E.
61
Luis B.
68
Mason A.
68
Damien R.
81
Taima B.
81
Jay H.
89
John M.
89
Szecho L.
89
William G.
89
Todd K.
105
Kansas C.
106
Chris L.
113
Tomas L.
113
Brent E.
118
Dan Du.
126
Joe D.
126
Brent S.
134
Stephanie P.
134
Virginia L.
138
Brad R.
161
Brett K.
161
Eric R.
172


Best finish for someone mathematically eliminated from 1st by the Sweet 16: 7th (Stefan K.)
Best finish for someone mathematically eliminated from all contention by the Sweet 16:  61st (Chad L. #4)

Worst finish for someone that was mathematically alive for all positions by the Sweet 16: 213th (Dan Du. #2)

There's probably a ton more I could do with this, but I'm a little basketball-ed out at the moment.  I'm going to take some time off and enjoy the baseball season.  I'll be back in December with the annual college bowl pool.

Again, if you had fun with the pool this year, I welcome anyone to join. I don't openly lobby for more people to get in, so if you want the pool to get bigger, feel free to evangelize.  I said I'd pay 5 spots if we got 250 people.  We may not be that far from that goal.

Congratulations again to the winners and I will hopefully see you all again next year!!!!!!

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