Sunday, April 3, 2016

NCAA pool - Largest blowout in Final 4 history edition



Good morning everyone.  I attended the Final 4 in Houston last night, and I went in with a real chance to win my own pool.  Sadly, that chance was dashed pretty quickly as Oklahoma suffered the biggest single loss in Final 4 history.  I had some hope with the score 17-16 Oklahoma, but in short order, it was 26-17 Villanova, and it was never closer than that.  My wife and I decided to go get an early dinner with about 6 minutes left to go in the game, since it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that Villanova was going to win.

The second game was a little closer, but only because the first game was such a blowout.  North Carolina slowly built a 10 point lead and more or less maintained it for the entire second half.  That makes the Finals, Villanova vs. North Carolina.

A grand total of 6 people managed to get the final 2 write.  Of those 6 people, only 1 (Irene H. #4) is not alive for one of the four payout positions, as she was knocked out way back with the Oregon loss to Oklahoma in the Elite 8.

Here are the eliminations for the two games:

For Oklahoma:

Adam E.  (3rd)
Alex I.  (4th)
Craig G.  (3rd)
Irene H. #1  (2nd, 4th)
James R.  (2nd, 3rd)
Julie S.  (1st, 4th)
Klei R. #1  (1st, 2nd)
Mike C. #2  (4th)
Mike W.  (4th)


For Syracuse:

Adam S.  (2nd)
Brian K.  (4th)
Daisy N. #4  (2nd, 4th)
Daisy N. #5  (1st)
Jim D. #2  (4th)
Jonathan O.  (3rd)
Missy W. #1  (1st)


That leaves us with only two possible outcomes, it also guarantees that after a great run, Daisy is not going to repeat as Champion.

Here are the only outcomes possible:

If North Carolina wins:

1st:  Adam S.
2nd:  Jeff D.
3rd:  Klei R. #1
4th:  Michelle R.

If Villanova wins:

1st:  Jonathan O.
2nd:  Winner of tie-breaker between Dan Dz. and Missy W. #1
3rd:  Loser of tie-breaker between Dan Dz. and Missy W. #1
4th:  Howard S. #2

Some interesting notes:

I don't think that Adam was on my original e-mail distribution about the pool, since we used to work together at my old job and all I had was his old e-mail address.  Luckily, he got a hold of the introductory e-mail and was able to enter.  I think a lost a lot of people because of my old company shuttering, so thanks to Adam for making a little extra effort to make sure to get in this year.

Jonathan O. was one of my favorite entrants last year, as he had some whacky brackets that somehow managed to stay alive for much longer than I would have thought possible.  This year, I think that he must have figured something out, since he's one of the last 2 alive for first.  I just want to point out to anyone that uses "I don't know anything about college basketball" as an excuse, that Jonathan O. is someone you need to talk to.  Jonathan O. is from Spain, and only got in because he is married to a friend of mine.  My understanding is that he may know about the NBA, but not so much about NCAA basketball.  Yet, here he is, on the verge of winning this pool.  I think this proves that with the seeding that the NCAA has, you can make a somewhat intelligent guess and maybe win.  Plus, it takes a lot of luck to win this pool.  Everyone who wins has to have about 7-8 games break your way.  That's why it's so hard to do, and also why "experts" have such a hard time doing well.

One more thing that is interesting, but not really a trend that I love is that the two potential winners both submitted only one bracket.  That's going to be a maximum amount of return on a small investment.

I heard from a number of people that I had listed as not having paid.  Here's the list of those I have NOT heard from yet:

Alex I.
Chrissy I.
Dave M.
Gary W.
Gigi I.
Jackson I.
Kansas C. #1
Kansas C. #2
Presley J.
Rob I. #1
Rob I. #2
Roth W.
Taran B.

Please remedy that ASAP.

How much the payouts will be will depend on how many people stiff me, so I'm not 100% on the payouts, but it will be 50/25/15/10 depending on how much the final count is.

Good luck to everyone still alive - and go Tar Heels!!!!!

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