Final Rundown

I'm finally back from Phoenix, and that means that the pool is over and the Champion has been crowned.  More on that in a moment.  First, my experience of the game...  We figured out parking a little better the second time to the stadium and for some reason security and gate admissions were dramatically easier to get through.  Maybe they figured some things about between Saturday and Monday, or at least that's how it seemed to me.  We got to our seats about 90 minutes before the game, and never really left them during the entire game.

As for the game, I have to admit that it was not all that great, especially the second half.  It was close throughout, but the refs kept calling fouls what seemed like every time down the court.  It made it so that the crowd could never really get into it.  I don't recall a 90 second stretch of the 2nd half that didn't involve some stoppage of play.  That was frustrating because it became a bit of a free throw shooting contest for much of the second half.

Anyway, I was rooting for Gonzaga, mostly because my brother would have won if that was the outcome, so I was particularly disappointed in Karnowski's game.  I think he finished 1-8, and 9 points.  It seemed like every one of his shots was from 5 feet or closer.  It was a truly terrible game for him, and he picked the worst time to play it.  It wasn't like North Carolina was much better.  I think they shot something like 20% from 3-point range.  Like I said, it was not a good game, aesthetically.

But it did get us to a winner, and you can see the matrix below:

Name	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place
1. Larry G. #3: 141 (-51)	1st place	Florida	S. Carolina	S. Carolina
2. John M. #1: 137.5 (-55)	Sweet 16	2nd place	Tie-Break	Kansas
3. Dan Dz.: 137 (-55)	S. Carolina	Tie-Break	3rd place	Kansas
4. Eric V.: 130 (-62)	Kansas	S. Carolina	Xavier	4th place
5. Daisy N. #3: 125 (-67)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	S. Carolina	S. Carolina
6. Joe D. #1: 124 (-68)	Xavier	Xavier	Kansas	Kansas
7. Taylor F.: 123 (-69)	Purdue	UCLA	Xavier	UCLA
8. Michelle L. #3: 121 (-71)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Arizona	UCLA
9. Becky H.: 120 (-72)	Sweet 16	W. Va.	UCLA	UCLA
9. Luis B. #2: 120 (-72)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
11. Szecho L. #2: 119 (-73)	Sweet 16	Purdue	Arizona	Purdue
12. Wayne D. #1: 117 (-75)	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	Xavier
12. Missy W. #3: 117 (-75)	W. Va.	Purdue	Purdue	UCLA
12. James G. #2: 117 (-75)	Sweet 16	Purdue	Purdue	UCLA
15. Bella S.: 114 (-78)	Sweet 16	Michigan	Michigan	Arizona
15. Taima B.: 114 (-78)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
15. Larry G. #2: 114 (-78)	Michigan	Michigan	Arizona	UCLA
18. Jeff S.: 113 (-79)	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	S. Carolina	Kansas
18. Kirt R. #1: 113 (-79)	Gonzaga	Gonzaga	S. Carolina	Kansas
18. Joe D. #2: 113 (-79)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Purdue
18. Kansas C. #3: 113 (-79)	Oregon	S. Carolina	S. Carolina	UCLA
22. Alyssa N.: 112 (-80)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Michigan	Arizona
23. Barack O.: 111 (-81)	Sweet 16	Michigan	Michigan	W. Va.
24. Ken P.: 108 (-84)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Gonzaga	Arizona
24. Luis B. #4: 108 (-84)	Sweet 16	Michigan	Arizona	Arizona
26. Brent S. #1: 107 (-85)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
27. Dustin B. #2: 106 (-86)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Kansas	Gonzaga
27. James R.: 106 (-86)	Michigan	Michigan	W. Va.	Purdue
29. Daisy N. #2: 105 (-87)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Arizona	Kansas
30. Kyle V.: 104 (-88)	Purdue	S. Carolina	Florida	Wisconsin
31. Missy W. #1: 102 (-90)	Wisconsin	Wisconsin	S. Carolina	Florida
31. Mike S. #2: 102 (-90)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	UCLA	Arizona
31. Jim D. #4: 102 (-90)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
34. Klei R.: 101 (-91)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
35. Ben J. #2: 98 (-94)	Sweet 16	Michigan	Michigan	W. Va.
36. Cool Guy: 96 (-96)	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
37. Dennis R. #1: 95 (-97)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Kansas
38. John E. #2: 94 (-98)	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas	Oregon
38. Paul R. #1: 94 (-98)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Florida	Oregon
38. Chris T. #3: 94 (-98)	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas
38. Dan S.: 94 (-98)	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
42. Elizabeth N.: 93 (-99)	Arizona	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
43. Josh C.: 91 (-101)	UCLA	Kansas	UCLA	Kansas
43. Jack K. #2: 91 (-101)	Sweet 16	Kentucky	Kentucky	Florida
43. Kansas C. #2: 91 (-101)	Baylor	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas
46. Jana T.: 90 (-102)	Arizona	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier
46. Scott H. #2: 90 (-102)	Baylor	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier
46. Alex N. #3: 90 (-102)	Michigan	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier
49. Presley J.: 89 (-103)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
49. Ava S.: 89 (-103)	Sweet 16	Purdue	Kentucky	Kentucky
49. Ron KY: 89 (-103)	Kentucky	Kansas	Kansas	Kentucky
49. Julie S.: 89 (-103)	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan	Purdue
53. Matt M.: 88 (-104)	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.
53. Brett K. #1: 88 (-104)	Sweet 16	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
55. April K.: 87 (-105)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
55. Hal R. #1: 87 (-105)	Wisconsin	Kentucky	Xavier	Kansas
57. Matt N.: 86 (-106)	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
57. Brent E. #4: 86 (-106)	Baylor	Baylor	Baylor	Baylor
57. Hal R. #3: 86 (-106)	Kentucky	Florida	Kentucky	Florida
57. Joel B. #1: 86 (-106)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Baylor	Kentucky
57. Jack K. #1: 86 (-106)	Sweet 16	Kansas	Kansas	Kentucky
57. Ron V. #1: 86 (-106)	UCLA	UCLA	Kansas	Kansas
63. Josh D.: 85 (-107)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	W. Va.
63. Kansas C. #1: 85 (-107)	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas
65. Richard Z.: 84 (-108)	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas
65. Brayden R.: 84 (-108)	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
65. Chris T. #1: 84 (-108)	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
65. Rob I.: 84 (-108)	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
65. Jim K.: 84 (-108)	Sweet 16	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas
65. Irene H. #3: 84 (-108)	Arizona	S. Carolina	Kentucky	Kentucky
71. Brent S. #2: 83 (-109)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
71. Tim's Stepson: 83 (-109)	Purdue	Arizona	S. Carolina	Florida
71. Kirt R. #2: 83 (-109)	Baylor	Baylor	Baylor	Kansas
71. Ray W. #1: 83 (-109)	Sweet 16	Kansas	Kentucky	Xavier
75. Gutless Jack: 82 (-110)	Kansas	Baylor	Kansas	UCLA
75. Brent E. #3: 82 (-110)	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
75. Irene H. #4: 82 (-110)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
78. Ron V. #2: 81 (-111)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Michigan
78. Daisy N. #8: 81 (-111)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
78. Joel B. #2: 81 (-111)	Sweet 16	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
78. Jay H. #3: 81 (-111)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Butler	Butler
78. Brad R.: 81 (-111)	Michigan	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
78. Dennis R. #2: 81 (-111)	Butler	Butler	Kansas	Kentucky
78. Mike S. #1: 81 (-111)	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
85. Scott K. #1: 80 (-112)	Sweet 16	Arizona	UCLA	Baylor
85. Dan D. #2: 80 (-112)	Wisconsin	Kentucky	S. Carolina	S. Carolina
87. John E. #1: 79 (-113)	Sweet 16	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
87. Howard S. #1: 79 (-113)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Kansas
87. Mike W.: 79 (-113)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	UCLA
90. Michelle D.: 77 (-115)	Michigan	Arizona	Butler	Butler
90. Pete J. #6: 77 (-115)	Baylor	Baylor	Butler	Baylor
90. Daisy N. #1: 77 (-115)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Michigan	Kansas
93. Brett K. #2: 76 (-116)	Sweet 16	UCLA	UCLA	Xavier
93. Michelle L. #4: 76 (-116)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	UCLA
93. Daisy N. #12: 76 (-116)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
93. Howard S. #3: 76 (-116)	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.
97. Michelle L. #5: 75 (-117)	Sweet 16	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
97. Ray W. #3: 75 (-117)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
97. Pete J. #2: 75 (-117)	Sweet 16	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas
97. Craig G.: 75 (-117)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
101. Larry G. #1: 74 (-118)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
102. Chad L. #3: 73 (-119)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
103. Brian K.: 72 (-120)	Butler	Butler	Butler	Wisconsin
103. Jax I.: 72 (-120)	Butler	Butler	Butler	Wisconsin
103. Wayne D. #2: 72 (-120)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
103. Jim D. #3: 72 (-120)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
107. Josh S. #1: 71 (-121)	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Butler
107. Damien R. #3: 71 (-121)	UCLA	Wisconsin	Kansas	Kansas
107. Daisy N. #10: 71 (-121)	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier	Kansas
110. Scott K. #2: 70 (-122)	Arizona	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier
111. Pete J. #3: 69 (-123)	Baylor	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
111. Riley Y.: 69 (-123)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
111. Dylan B.: 69 (-123)	Arizona	Arizona	Xavier	Xavier
111. Irene H. #2: 69 (-123)	Kansas	Kansas	Xavier	Xavier
115. Daisy N. #6: 68 (-124)	W. Va.	Michigan	Purdue	W. Va.
115. Ben J. #5: 68 (-124)	Michigan	W. Va.	Purdue	Purdue
115. Chris L. #2: 68 (-124)	Arizona	Arizona	UCLA	UCLA
115. Chris L. #1: 68 (-124)	Arizona	UCLA	UCLA	Xavier
115. Chris L. #3: 68 (-124)	Arizona	Arizona	UCLA	UCLA
115. Arianna S.: 68 (-124)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Michigan
121. Sanjay T.: 67 (-125)	Baylor	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
121. Adam S. #1: 67 (-125)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
123. Josh S. #2: 66 (-126)	Arizona	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier
123. Damien R. #1: 66 (-126)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Purdue	Arizona
123. Allie I.: 66 (-126)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
123. Dustin B. #1: 66 (-126)	W. Va.	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
123. Ben S. #1: 66 (-126)	Arizona	Arizona	UCLA	UCLA
123. Michelle R.: 66 (-126)	Arizona	Arizona	UCLA	UCLA
123. Paul R. #2: 66 (-126)	Xavier	Xavier	Kansas	Kentucky
123. Gigi I.: 66 (-126)	Butler	Butler	Butler	Butler
123. Eric R. #1: 66 (-126)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
132. Alex N. #2: 65 (-127)	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
132. Tim N.: 65 (-127)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
132. Ben S. #2: 65 (-127)	Sweet 16	Michigan	Arizona	Arizona
132. Carrie F.: 65 (-127)	Butler	Baylor	Baylor	Baylor
132. Dan D. #1: 65 (-127)	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	Oregon
132. Jim W.: 65 (-127)	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
132. Pete J. #4: 65 (-127)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
139. Marc R.: 64 (-128)	Arizona	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
139. Mike C. #2: 64 (-128)	Butler	Butler	Wisconsin	Wisconsin
139. Stefan K.: 64 (-128)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
139. Larry G. #4: 64 (-128)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
139. Scott Has.: 64 (-128)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Arizona	Arizona
139. Joe D. #3: 64 (-128)	Xavier	Baylor	Xavier	Baylor
139. Brett W.: 64 (-128)	Sweet 16	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
146. Mike McQ. #2: 63 (-129)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
146. Ray W. #2: 63 (-129)	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier
148. David S.: 62 (-130)	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
148. Daisy N. #4: 62 (-130)	Butler	Butler	Butler	Butler
148. Luis B. #5: 62 (-130)	Sweet 16	Michigan	Michigan	W. Va.
148. Howard S. #2: 62 (-130)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
148. Brent E. #2: 62 (-130)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
148. Zach V.: 62 (-130)	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
154. Roth W. #1: 61 (-131)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
154. Eric R. #2: 61 (-131)	Sweet 16	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier
154. Szecho L. #1: 61 (-131)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
154. Bosun S.: 61 (-131)	Florida	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
154. Hutch H. #1: 61 (-131)	Sweet 16	W. Va.	W. Va.	Arizona
154. Roth W. #2: 61 (-131)	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier
154. Mike C. #1: 61 (-131)	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier	Xavier
154. Alex N. #1: 61 (-131)	Michigan	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA
162. Daisy N. #9: 60 (-132)	Butler	Butler	Butler	Butler
162. Molly R.: 60 (-132)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Xavier	Xavier
162. Adam S. #2: 60 (-132)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
162. Ashley D.: 60 (-132)	Baylor	Baylor	UCLA	UCLA
162. Kansas C. #4: 60 (-132)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
162. Mindi W.: 60 (-132)	Baylor	Baylor	UCLA	UCLA
168. Ben J. #3: 59 (-133)	Michigan	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
168. Chad L. #1: 59 (-133)	Sweet 16	Michigan	Purdue	Purdue
168. Missy W. #2: 59 (-133)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
168. Ben J. #1: 59 (-133)	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
168. Todd K. #2: 59 (-133)	Sweet 16	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
173. Luis B. #3: 58 (-134)	Sweet 16	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
173. Hutch H. #2: 58 (-134)	Arizona	Arizona	Baylor	UCLA
175. Jon F.: 57 (-135)	Michigan	Michigan	Arizona	Purdue
175. James G. #1: 57 (-135)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Michigan	Arizona
175. Jill M. #1: 57 (-135)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
178. Mike McQ. #1: 56 (-136)	Michigan	W. Va.	Arizona	Arizona
178. Seth D.: 56 (-136)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
178. Daisy N. #11: 56 (-136)	Purdue	Butler	Butler	Butler
178. Pete J. #5: 56 (-136)	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
178. Ben J. #4: 56 (-136)	Michigan	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.
178. Brad E.: 56 (-136)	W. Va.	W. Va.	Purdue	Purdue
184. Kevin F. #2: 55 (-137)	Sweet 16	Purdue	Purdue	Arizona
184. Chris T. #2: 55 (-137)	Arizona	Arizona	Butler	Butler
184. Jay H. #2: 55 (-137)	Butler	Butler	Butler	Baylor
184. Irene H. #1: 55 (-137)	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Arizona
184. Jaxon S.: 55 (-137)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Arizona
184. Kevin F. #1: 55 (-137)	W. Va.	Purdue	Butler	Butler
184. Todd K. #1: 55 (-137)	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
184. Nathan R.: 55 (-137)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
192. Chrissy I.: 54 (-138)	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
192. Brent E. #1: 54 (-138)	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
192. Roth W. #4: 54 (-138)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
195. Karen C.: 53 (-139)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
196. Ryan S.: 52 (-140)	Butler	Butler	Baylor	Butler
196. Damien R. #2: 52 (-140)	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan	Arizona
196. Hal R. #2: 52 (-140)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
199. Luis B. #1: 51 (-141)	W. Va.	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
199. Daisy N. #5: 51 (-141)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
199. Adam E.: 51 (-141)	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
202. Ally H.: 50 (-142)	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
203. Brandon H.: 49 (-143)	W. Va.	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
203. Cory W.: 49 (-143)	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.	W. Va.
203. Chris M.: 49 (-143)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
203. Daisy N. #7: 49 (-143)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Michigan
203. Kiah H.: 49 (-143)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
203. Pete J. #1: 49 (-143)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Arizona
203. Jill M. #2: 49 (-143)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
210. Michelle L. #2: 48 (-144)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
210. Scott H. #1: 48 (-144)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
210. Jim D. #2: 48 (-144)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
213. Alyssa B.: 47 (-145)	Baylor	Baylor	Baylor	Baylor
213. Jim D. #1: 47 (-145)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
213. Jay H. #1: 47 (-145)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
216. John M. #2: 46 (-146)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
216. Joshua R.: 46 (-146)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Purdue	Purdue
218. Chad L. #2: 45 (-147)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
219. Jack K. #4: 44 (-148)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Michigan
219. Irene H. #5: 44 (-148)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
219. Michelle L. #1: 44 (-148)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
222. Roth W. #3: 42 (-150)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
223. Eleanor: 37 (-155)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
224. Emily W.: 36 (-156)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16
225. Kevin F. #3: 31 (-161)	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16	Sweet 16

Normally, I try to do a post-mortem on the winner to see just where they made their big move, and what separated them from the field.  This year, it's pretty easy, mostly because Larry G. #3 didn't really separate himself much until the very end.  I always say that in order to win this pool, you certainly have to nail the champion.  In this case, you need to nail the champion and the runner-up.  The only two people in the pool that had North Carolina beating Gonzaga in the finals were the people that finished 1-2.

As for position after each round, Larry G. #3 had the following:

Round 1: 25/32  (129th place)

Sweet 16 : 12/16  (18th place)

Elite 8: 3/8  (44th place)

Final 4: 2/4  (19th place)

Those are actually pretty pedestrian totals.  There is nothing particularly spectacular about those numbers.  But upon closer inspection, Larry G. #3 had a remarkable run to the top.  There were 7 games that had to go Larry G.#3's way in order to win where he would have been eliminated had he not, and he hit all 7:

North Carolina over Butler

Gonzaga over Xavier

South Carolina over Florida

North Carolina over Kentucky

Gonzaga over South Carolina

North Carolina over Oregon

North Carolina over Gonzaga

Some of these games weren't foregone conclusions.  I think it's kind of incredible that he could have easily been eliminated at the Sweet 16 level if Butler had beaten North Carolina.  I also think it's incredible that he would've been knocked out if Florida made the Final 4 instead of South Carolina considering that he had South Carolina losing to Marquette in the first round.  I think this just shows that as long as you have a chance to win, you shouldn't give up hope.  After the Michigan loss, Larry G. #3 was down to 1.21% probability of winning this thing and he came all the way back to do it.  Good job, Larry G. #3.

In other news, I crunched some numbers, and I thought they were pretty interesting.  If you were looking for what games correlated highest with the final rankings, the best predictor in the first round was picking Butler over Winthrop.  The game in the first round that had the largest inverse correlation with final rankings was USC over SMU, meaning that predicting USC to beat SMU was a better 1st round predictor that you would finish lower in the standings than any other game.

After the first round, the correlations become more obvious.  The 2nd round game that correlated most with finishing higher over all was Gonzaga over Northwestern, followed by Gonzaga over West Virginia in the Sweet 16 and North Carolina over Kentucky in the Elite 8.  I developed a pet theory during the pool this year that played out as the games went on.  The game that was the best predictor of finishing worse in final rankings if you got it right was South Carolina over Duke in the second round.  My theory was that if you got points there, you probably also had a lot of other strange upsets picked elsewhere that didn't get you any points, and you probably finished lower in the standings.  The numbers bear that out a little.  Ironically, I always say that you need to take some chances and have those chances pay off.  The really hard part is knowing what those chances are and how far to take them.

As a group, we started off pretty strong and faded towards the end.

Round 1 average: 24.7 points (24.7/32)

Round 2 average: 18.2 points (9.1/16)

Sweet 16 average: 12.9 points (3.2/8)

Elite 8 average:  7.5 points (.9/4)

Final 4 average: 7.8 points (.5/2)

Champ average: 3.7 points (.1/1)

That gave us an average total of 74.9 points out of a possible 192, or 39%.  Our winner only got 141 points, or 73.44% of all possible points.  Tough year, I think.

As expected, the South region was the easiest to predict with an average of 21.4 points coming from that region.  That makes sense, since form held from the Sweet 16 on.  We had our only 2 perfect regions come from there:  Dan Dz., who finished 3rd and Szecho L.#2, who finished in 11th both got every game right in the South Region.  Second easiest was the East region with 17.1 points won.  The best finished in the East was Missy W. #1, who got 30 points missing only Notre Dame / West Virginia in round 2.  Close behind in 3rd place was the Midwest region, with an average of 16.9 points won.  Somewhat out of nowhere, Pete J. #3 managed to get 31/32 available points, missing only Michigan State/ Miami in the first round.  I say that those picks came from nowhere because in Pete J. #3 only managed to get 69 total points, so the fact that 31/69 came from one region is pretty remarkable.  Obviously, the East region was the hardest to predict.  The average sheet only won 8 points in the East region.  No one got more than 16 points.

The worst anyone did in any one region was 3/32 points, accomplished by 4 people (2 in the East, 2, surprisingly, in the South).

The person that had the highest finish despite being eliminated from all contention at the Sweet 16: Luis B. #2 (9th place overall)

The person who had the highest finish despite being eliminated from 1st place contention at the Sweet 16: John M. #1 (2nd place overall) - never give up hope if you have a chance.

There were 6 people that had a perfect day 1, going 16/16.  None of them made the money:

Daisy N. #3 (5th place)

Chris T. #1 (65th place)

Mike S. #1 (78th place)

Daisy N. #12 (93rd place)

Alex N. #1 (154th place)

Daisy N. #9 (162nd place)

Our leader after the first round was Dan Dz (31/32).  He finished in 3rd place.

Our leader after the Sweet 16 was established was Paul R. #1 (54/64).  He finished in 38th place.

Our leader after the Elite 8 was established was Kansas C. #3 (73/96).  She finished in 18th place.

Kansas C. #3, Kirt R. #1 & Jeff S. all tied for the brackets that did the best despite not picking North Carolina to win (113 points, 18th place).

The person that did the worst, despite picking North Carolina to win was Ben J. #2 (98 points, 35th place).

The person that did the best despite not having a team in the last game: Hal R. #3 (86 points, 57th place)

The person that did the best despite getting 0 of the Final 4 right: Paul R. #2 & Josh S. #2 (66 points, 123rd place).

That's it for me this year.  I'll be in contact with the winners to see how they want to be paid out.  I had fun, and only got stiffed by 9 people, so I'll keep a tally there for next year.

I hope everyone had a good time and we'll do it all again next year.....