Monday, January 7, 2019

Bowl Pool Finals


It seemed like there was little doubt about the outcome of the National Championship game tonight from about midway through the first half on.  That was bound to be great news for the people that took Clemson.  Honestly, that game was only moderately interesting from a neutral point of view.  It was probably worse than a lot of the games this Bowl season, but if you were a person who was going to make or lose money based on the results, it was probably a good game.  If you were going to win with Clemson, you didn’t have to sweat out whether they were going to win.  If you took Alabama, you never had much hope that they were going to win, so you had plenty of time to absorb the loss.

The only really interesting thing about this game was the tie-breaker to decide 3rd place.  Remember that if Clemson won, 3rd would be decided by a tiebreaker.  I personally hate tiebreakers, but you kind of need to have one.  In this pool, the O/U was 62 points.  The final score was 60 total points, but Clemson could have very easily scored in garbage time at the end of that game to push the number over.  My guess is that Dan Du. was screaming at the TV for Clemson to score at the end.  I know I would have been.  Unfortunately for him, and fortunately for Ally H, they didn’t, so Ally H. takes 3rd place and $66.

Second place goes to the person that was leading the pool pretty much throughout, Dylan B.  Dylan B. had a pretty sizeable lead going into the last 2 days of games, getting as high as a 78.91% chance to win the pool after the Sun Bowl.  Unfortunately from there, he limped in going 4 for the next 10 games, winning only 58 total points and losing 152.  That was a pretty big crash, but he had logged enough points to pull out 2nd place overall despite that bad run.  That was good enough for $99.

First place went to someone that I really didn’t pay a lot of attention to.  Mike S. finished the pool with 27 wins (tied for 1st).  That often is how it goes, which makes people think that maybe the point distribution doesn’t matter.  In this case it did because the other person with 27 wins was Jason S. and he finished in 14th place.  Mike S. had the 3rd best chance of winning when I calculated initial probabilities with a 5.29% chance.  Along the way, he managed to survive no less than 6 games where if he had lost, he would have been mathematically eliminated.  Those 6 were:

1.       Oregon in the Redbox Bowl (+35 points)
2.       Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl (+16 points)
3.       Iowa in the Outback Bowl (+28 points)
4.       Kentucky in the Fiesta Bowl (-18 points)
5.       Ohio State in the Rose Bowl (+37 points)
6.       Clemson in the Championship Game (+30 points)

I find it interesting that he needed Kentucky to pull the upset of Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl despite having picked Penn State to win for 18 points.  However, most people had Penn State for much, much more, so that loss moved him up in the standings.  Also, he lost 39 points on Georgia, but that didn’t make any difference in his chances as winning at all.  Strange what comes out when you look at the numbers.

Anyway, congratulations to Mike S.  He gets $165 for his efforts this year.

For finality sake, here are the final standings:

1. Mike S.: 565 (-245)
2. Dylan B.: 555 (-255)
3. Ally H.: 521 (-289)
3. Dan Du.: 521 (-289)
5. Becky H.: 520 (-290)
6. Mike W.: 515 (-295)
7. Pete J. #1: 511 (-299)
8. Josiah T. #3: 510 (-300)
9. Jay H. #3: 506 (-304)
10. Michelle L. #1: 504 (-306)
11. Ryan W.: 502 (-308)
12. Jim W.: 499 (-311)
13. Josiah T. #4: 497 (-313)
14. Jason S.: 496 (-314)
15. Mike N.: 490 (-320)
16. Peter F.: 488 (-322)
17. Max W. #1: 486 (-324)
18. Marc R.: 478 (-332)
19. Scott Has.: 475 (-335)
20. Kevin W.: 471 (-339)
21. Ava S.: 467 (-343)
22. Julie S.: 466 (-344)
22. Andrzej R.: 466 (-344)
22. James P.: 466 (-344)
22. Brad R.: 466 (-344)
26. Emily J.: 464 (-346)
27. Amos W.: 462 (-348)
28. Bosun S.: 459 (-351)
29. Hutch H.: 452 (-358)
30. Eric L.: 445 (-365)
31. Eric V.: 441 (-369)
32. Harrell R. #2: 440 (-370)
33. Brent E. #4: 439 (-371)
34. Pete J. #2: 437 (-373)
35. Brett W.: 434 (-376)
36. Brent E. #1: 433 (-377)
37. Ben S. #1: 432 (-378)
38. Jay H. #1: 428 (-382)
39. Adam E.: 427 (-383)
40. Harrell R. #1: 426 (-384)
40. Josiah T. #2: 426 (-384)
42. Matt N.: 425 (-385)
43. Grant F.: 424 (-386)
44. Scott Her. #1: 422 (-388)
45. Jim D.: 421 (-389)
45. Ben S. #2: 421 (-389)
45. Nick S.: 421 (-389)
48. Damien R. #2: 416 (-394)
49. Brent E. #2: 415 (-395)
50. Nichole W.: 414 (-396)
51. Josiah T. #1: 413 (-397)
52. Michelle L. #2: 412 (-398)
53. Dan Dz.: 403 (-407)
54. Dustin B.: 396 (-414)
55. Scott Her. #2: 392 (-418)
56. Brent E. #3: 388 (-422)
56. Justin H.: 388 (-422)
56. Damien R. #1: 388 (-422)
59. Klei R.: 374 (-436)
60. Sally R.: 372 (-438)
61. Max W. #2: 369 (-441)
62. Craig G.: 366 (-444)
63. Dan S.: 361 (-449)
64. Tim N.: 356 (-454)
64. Ashley D.: 356 (-454)
66. Jay H. #2: 320 (-490)


…and for those interested, the Final Matrix:

Net Rank
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
1. Mike S.: 320
1st Place
Wash
Georgia
2. Dylan B.: 300
Alabama
2nd Place
Wash
3. Ally H.: 232
Initial
Alabama
3rd Place
3. Dan Du.: 232
UCF
Miss St.
Alabama
5. Becky H.: 230
Wash
Georgia
Alabama
6. Mike W.: 220
Initial
Mich St.
Penn St.
7. Pete J. #1: 212
Missouri
Miss St.
Miss St.
8. Josiah T. #3: 210
Mich St.
Miss St.
Miss St.
9. Jay H. #3: 202
Missouri
Miss St.
UCF
10. Michelle L. #1: 198
Va. Tech
Missouri
Missouri
11. Ryan W.: 194
Mich St.
Penn St.
Penn St.
12. Jim W.: 188
Initial
Utah
Utah
13. Josiah T. #4: 184
Initial
Miss St.
Miss St.
14. Jason S.: 182
Initial
Pitt
Pitt
15. Mike N.: 170
Initial
Initial
Initial
16. Peter F.: 166
Initial
Initial
Initial
17. Max W. #1: 162
Va. Tech
Mich St.
Mich St.
18. Marc R.: 146
Va. Tech
Miss St.
Utah
19. Scott Has.: 140
Initial
Miss St.
Miss St.
20. Kevin W.: 132
Initial
Initial
Initial
21. Ava S.: 124
Initial
NC State
NC State
22. Julie S.: 122
Mich St.
NC State
NC State
22. Andrzej R.: 122
Missouri
Miss St.
Miss St.
22. James P.: 122
Initial
Initial
Missouri
22. Brad R.: 122
Initial
Miss St.
Miss St.
26. Emily J.: 118
Initial
Initial
Initial
27. Amos W.: 114
Initial
Initial
Initial
28. Bosun S.: 108
Initial
Initial
Va. Tech
29. Hutch H.: 94
Initial
Initial
Utah
30. Eric L.: 80
Initial
Utah
Miss St.
31. Eric V.: 72
Initial
Initial
Miss St.
32. Harrell R. #2: 70
Initial
Va. Tech
Va. Tech
33. Brent E. #4: 68
Initial
Initial
Initial
34. Pete J. #2: 64
Mich St.
Mich St.
Missouri
35. Brett W.: 58
Initial
Initial
Initial
36. Brent E. #1: 56
Initial
Initial
Initial
37. Ben S. #1: 54
Initial
Initial
Mich St.
38. Jay H. #1: 46
Initial
Initial
Va. Tech
39. Adam E.: 44
Initial
Utah
Utah
40. Harrell R. #1: 42
Initial
Initial
Initial
40. Josiah T. #2: 42
Initial
Initial
Initial
42. Matt N.: 40
Initial
Initial
Initial
43. Grant F.: 38
Initial
Initial
Initial
44. Scott Her. #1: 34
Initial
Initial
Initial
45. Jim D.: 32
Initial
Initial
Initial
45. Ben S. #2: 32
Initial
Initial
Initial
45. Nick S.: 32
Initial
Initial
Initial
48. Damien R. #2: 22
Initial
Initial
Initial
49. Brent E. #2: 20
Initial
Initial
Initial
50. Nichole W.: 18
Initial
Initial
Initial
51. Josiah T. #1: 16
Initial
Initial
Initial
52. Michelle L. #2: 14
Initial
Initial
Initial
53. Dan Dz.: -4
Initial
Initial
Va. Tech
54. Dustin B.: -18
Initial
Initial
Initial
55. Scott Her. #2: -26
Initial
Initial
Initial
56. Brent E. #3: -34
Initial
Initial
Initial
56. Justin H.: -34
Initial
Initial
Initial
56. Damien R. #1: -34
Initial
Initial
Initial
59. Klei R.: -62
Initial
Initial
Va. Tech
60. Sally R.: -66
Initial
Initial
Initial
61. Max W. #2: -72
Initial
Va. Tech
Pitt
62. Craig G.: -78
Initial
Initial
Initial
63. Dan S.: -88
Initial
Initial
Initial
64. Tim N.: -98
Initial
Initial
Initial
64. Ashley D.: -98
Initial
Va. Tech
Pitt
66. Jay H. #2: -170
Initial
Initial
Initial


To all the winners, please let me know how I can get you your winnings, and I’ll send them out ASAP.

Congratulations to everyone!!  I look forward to March Madness in a few months.  See you all then!!!!!

Posted by at 4 comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)