Bowl Pool Finals

It seemed like there was little doubt about the outcome of the National Championship game tonight from about midway through the first half on.  That was bound to be great news for the people that took Clemson.  Honestly, that game was only moderately interesting from a neutral point of view.  It was probably worse than a lot of the games this Bowl season, but if you were a person who was going to make or lose money based on the results, it was probably a good game.  If you were going to win with Clemson, you didn’t have to sweat out whether they were going to win.  If you took Alabama, you never had much hope that they were going to win, so you had plenty of time to absorb the loss.

The only really interesting thing about this game was the tie-breaker to decide 3^rd place.  Remember that if Clemson won, 3^rd would be decided by a tiebreaker.  I personally hate tiebreakers, but you kind of need to have one.  In this pool, the O/U was 62 points.  The final score was 60 total points, but Clemson could have very easily scored in garbage time at the end of that game to push the number over.  My guess is that Dan Du. was screaming at the TV for Clemson to score at the end.  I know I would have been.  Unfortunately for him, and fortunately for Ally H, they didn’t, so Ally H. takes 3^rd place and $66.

Second place goes to the person that was leading the pool pretty much throughout, Dylan B.  Dylan B. had a pretty sizeable lead going into the last 2 days of games, getting as high as a 78.91% chance to win the pool after the Sun Bowl.  Unfortunately from there, he limped in going 4 for the next 10 games, winning only 58 total points and losing 152.  That was a pretty big crash, but he had logged enough points to pull out 2^nd place overall despite that bad run.  That was good enough for $99.

First place went to someone that I really didn’t pay a lot of attention to.  Mike S. finished the pool with 27 wins (tied for 1^st).  That often is how it goes, which makes people think that maybe the point distribution doesn’t matter.  In this case it did because the other person with 27 wins was Jason S. and he finished in 14^th place.  Mike S. had the 3^rd best chance of winning when I calculated initial probabilities with a 5.29% chance.  Along the way, he managed to survive no less than 6 games where if he had lost, he would have been mathematically eliminated.  Those 6 were:

1.       Oregon in the Redbox Bowl (+35 points)

2.       Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl (+16 points)

3.       Iowa in the Outback Bowl (+28 points)

4.       Kentucky in the Fiesta Bowl (-18 points)

5.       Ohio State in the Rose Bowl (+37 points)

6.       Clemson in the Championship Game (+30 points)

I find it interesting that he needed Kentucky to pull the upset of Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl despite having picked Penn State to win for 18 points.  However, most people had Penn State for much, much more, so that loss moved him up in the standings.  Also, he lost 39 points on Georgia, but that didn’t make any difference in his chances as winning at all.  Strange what comes out when you look at the numbers.

Anyway, congratulations to Mike S.  He gets $165 for his efforts this year.

For finality sake, here are the final standings:

1. Mike S.: 565 (-245)

2. Dylan B.: 555 (-255)

3. Ally H.: 521 (-289)

3. Dan Du.: 521 (-289)

5. Becky H.: 520 (-290)

6. Mike W.: 515 (-295)

7. Pete J. #1: 511 (-299)

8. Josiah T. #3: 510 (-300)

9. Jay H. #3: 506 (-304)

10. Michelle L. #1: 504 (-306)

11. Ryan W.: 502 (-308)

12. Jim W.: 499 (-311)

13. Josiah T. #4: 497 (-313)

14. Jason S.: 496 (-314)

15. Mike N.: 490 (-320)

16. Peter F.: 488 (-322)

17. Max W. #1: 486 (-324)

18. Marc R.: 478 (-332)

19. Scott Has.: 475 (-335)

20. Kevin W.: 471 (-339)

21. Ava S.: 467 (-343)

22. Julie S.: 466 (-344)

22. Andrzej R.: 466 (-344)

22. James P.: 466 (-344)

22. Brad R.: 466 (-344)

26. Emily J.: 464 (-346)

27. Amos W.: 462 (-348)

28. Bosun S.: 459 (-351)

29. Hutch H.: 452 (-358)

30. Eric L.: 445 (-365)

31. Eric V.: 441 (-369)

32. Harrell R. #2: 440 (-370)

33. Brent E. #4: 439 (-371)

34. Pete J. #2: 437 (-373)

35. Brett W.: 434 (-376)

36. Brent E. #1: 433 (-377)

37. Ben S. #1: 432 (-378)

38. Jay H. #1: 428 (-382)

39. Adam E.: 427 (-383)

40. Harrell R. #1: 426 (-384)

40. Josiah T. #2: 426 (-384)

42. Matt N.: 425 (-385)

43. Grant F.: 424 (-386)

44. Scott Her. #1: 422 (-388)

45. Jim D.: 421 (-389)

45. Ben S. #2: 421 (-389)

45. Nick S.: 421 (-389)

48. Damien R. #2: 416 (-394)

49. Brent E. #2: 415 (-395)

50. Nichole W.: 414 (-396)

51. Josiah T. #1: 413 (-397)

52. Michelle L. #2: 412 (-398)

53. Dan Dz.: 403 (-407)

54. Dustin B.: 396 (-414)

55. Scott Her. #2: 392 (-418)

56. Brent E. #3: 388 (-422)

56. Justin H.: 388 (-422)

56. Damien R. #1: 388 (-422)

59. Klei R.: 374 (-436)

60. Sally R.: 372 (-438)

61. Max W. #2: 369 (-441)

62. Craig G.: 366 (-444)

63. Dan S.: 361 (-449)

64. Tim N.: 356 (-454)

64. Ashley D.: 356 (-454)

66. Jay H. #2: 320 (-490)

…and for those interested, the Final Matrix:

Net Rank	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
1. Mike S.: 320	1st Place	Wash	Georgia
2. Dylan B.: 300	Alabama	2nd Place	Wash
3. Ally H.: 232	Initial	Alabama	3rd Place
3. Dan Du.: 232	UCF	Miss St.	Alabama
5. Becky H.: 230	Wash	Georgia	Alabama
6. Mike W.: 220	Initial	Mich St.	Penn St.
7. Pete J. #1: 212	Missouri	Miss St.	Miss St.
8. Josiah T. #3: 210	Mich St.	Miss St.	Miss St.
9. Jay H. #3: 202	Missouri	Miss St.	UCF
10. Michelle L. #1: 198	Va. Tech	Missouri	Missouri
11. Ryan W.: 194	Mich St.	Penn St.	Penn St.
12. Jim W.: 188	Initial	Utah	Utah
13. Josiah T. #4: 184	Initial	Miss St.	Miss St.
14. Jason S.: 182	Initial	Pitt	Pitt
15. Mike N.: 170	Initial	Initial	Initial
16. Peter F.: 166	Initial	Initial	Initial
17. Max W. #1: 162	Va. Tech	Mich St.	Mich St.
18. Marc R.: 146	Va. Tech	Miss St.	Utah
19. Scott Has.: 140	Initial	Miss St.	Miss St.
20. Kevin W.: 132	Initial	Initial	Initial
21. Ava S.: 124	Initial	NC State	NC State
22. Julie S.: 122	Mich St.	NC State	NC State
22. Andrzej R.: 122	Missouri	Miss St.	Miss St.
22. James P.: 122	Initial	Initial	Missouri
22. Brad R.: 122	Initial	Miss St.	Miss St.
26. Emily J.: 118	Initial	Initial	Initial
27. Amos W.: 114	Initial	Initial	Initial
28. Bosun S.: 108	Initial	Initial	Va. Tech
29. Hutch H.: 94	Initial	Initial	Utah
30. Eric L.: 80	Initial	Utah	Miss St.
31. Eric V.: 72	Initial	Initial	Miss St.
32. Harrell R. #2: 70	Initial	Va. Tech	Va. Tech
33. Brent E. #4: 68	Initial	Initial	Initial
34. Pete J. #2: 64	Mich St.	Mich St.	Missouri
35. Brett W.: 58	Initial	Initial	Initial
36. Brent E. #1: 56	Initial	Initial	Initial
37. Ben S. #1: 54	Initial	Initial	Mich St.
38. Jay H. #1: 46	Initial	Initial	Va. Tech
39. Adam E.: 44	Initial	Utah	Utah
40. Harrell R. #1: 42	Initial	Initial	Initial
40. Josiah T. #2: 42	Initial	Initial	Initial
42. Matt N.: 40	Initial	Initial	Initial
43. Grant F.: 38	Initial	Initial	Initial
44. Scott Her. #1: 34	Initial	Initial	Initial
45. Jim D.: 32	Initial	Initial	Initial
45. Ben S. #2: 32	Initial	Initial	Initial
45. Nick S.: 32	Initial	Initial	Initial
48. Damien R. #2: 22	Initial	Initial	Initial
49. Brent E. #2: 20	Initial	Initial	Initial
50. Nichole W.: 18	Initial	Initial	Initial
51. Josiah T. #1: 16	Initial	Initial	Initial
52. Michelle L. #2: 14	Initial	Initial	Initial
53. Dan Dz.: -4	Initial	Initial	Va. Tech
54. Dustin B.: -18	Initial	Initial	Initial
55. Scott Her. #2: -26	Initial	Initial	Initial
56. Brent E. #3: -34	Initial	Initial	Initial
56. Justin H.: -34	Initial	Initial	Initial
56. Damien R. #1: -34	Initial	Initial	Initial
59. Klei R.: -62	Initial	Initial	Va. Tech
60. Sally R.: -66	Initial	Initial	Initial
61. Max W. #2: -72	Initial	Va. Tech	Pitt
62. Craig G.: -78	Initial	Initial	Initial
63. Dan S.: -88	Initial	Initial	Initial
64. Tim N.: -98	Initial	Initial	Initial
64. Ashley D.: -98	Initial	Va. Tech	Pitt
66. Jay H. #2: -170	Initial	Initial	Initial

To all the winners, please let me know how I can get you your winnings, and I’ll send them out ASAP.

Congratulations to everyone!!  I look forward to March Madness in a few months.  See you all then!!!!!