Pre-Championship Game

Hello again.  I took a few days off after the last set of games to relax a little and head back to work.  The last set of games were pretty interesting.  Iowa winning coupled with Kentucky really shifted the standings around.  At one point, if Washington had beaten Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, we would’ve been able to crown a champion, and it wouldn’t have been Dylan B (Becky H. would have locked 1^st).  At the end of the day, we had the biggest upset of the bowl season when Texas beat Georgia, and it largely left the standings unaffected.  Like I said, it was a strange day.

So, now everyone has used the same amount of points, so the net points rankings and the actual points rankings are in line with one another, so there’s no need to show both.

The important thing for most people that think they have a chance of winning something is whether or not that’s true.  There are only 5 people that are still mathematically alive for one of the 3 spots.  The only thing that is totally decided is that Dylan B. is going to win something.  The only question is whether that is going to be 1^st or 2^nd.

Here are the probabilities for finishing in the top 3:

Dylan B. (100%)

Ally H. (75%)

Mike S. (50%)

Becky H. (50%)

Dan Du. (25%)

You may notice that Dan Du. only has a 25% chance of finishing in the top 3 despite there only being 1 game left.  That is because the only way he can finish in the money is if Clemson wins and he wins the tiebreaker.  Since I’m considering the tiebreaker a coin flip, that’s how you get to 25%.

Here are the net points totals with the pick for the Championship game listed:

1. Dylan B.: 330 (Alabama)

2. Mike S.: 290 (Clemson)

3. Ally H.: 262 (Alabama)

4. Becky H.: 260 (Alabama)

5. Mike W.: 250 (Oklahoma)

6. Pete J. #1: 242 (Alabama)

7. Ryan W.: 224 (Alabama)

8. Jim W.: 218 (Alabama)

9. Jason S.: 212 (Alabama)

10. Dan Du.: 202 (Clemson)

11. Peter F.: 196 (Alabama)

12. Max W. #1: 192 (Alabama)

13. Josiah T. #3: 180 (Clemson)

14. Marc R.: 176 (Alabama)

15. Jay H. #3: 172 (Clemson)

16. Scott Has.: 170 (Alabama)

17. Michelle L. #1: 168 (Clemson)

18. Kevin W.: 162 (Oklahoma)

19. Josiah T. #4: 154 (Clemson)

19. Ava S.: 154 (Alabama)

21. Julie S.: 152 (Notre Dame)

21. Andrzej R.: 152 (Alabama)

21. James P.: 152 (Alabama)

21. Brad R.: 152 (Alabama)

25. Emily J.: 148 (Alabama)

26. Amos W.: 144 (Alabama)

27. Mike N.: 140 (Clemson)

28. Hutch H.: 124 (Alabama)

29. Eric L.: 110 (Alabama)

30. Eric V.: 102 (Alabama)

31. Harrell R. #2: 100 (Alabama)

32. Brent E. #4: 98 (Alabama)

33. Brett W.: 88 (Alabama)

34. Ben S. #1: 84 (Alabama)

35. Bosun S.: 78 (Clemson)

36. Jay H. #1: 76 (Alabama)

37. Adam E.: 74 (Alabama)

38. Harrell R. #1: 72 (Alabama)

38. Josiah T. #2: 72 (Alabama)

40. Matt N.: 70 (Alabama)

41. Scott Her. #1: 64 (Alabama)

42. Jim D.: 62 (Alabama)

42. Ben S. #2: 62 (Alabama)

42. Nick S.: 62 (Notre Dame)

45. Damien R. #2: 52 (Alabama)

46. Brent E. #2: 50 (Alabama)

47. Nichole W.: 48 (Alabama)

48. Josiah T. #1: 46 (Alabama)

49. Michelle L. #2: 44 (Alabama)

50. Pete J. #2: 34 (Clemson)

51. Brent E. #1: 26 (Clemson)

51. Dan Dz.: 26 (Notre Dame)

53. Dustin B.: 12 (Alabama)

54. Grant F.: 8 (Clemson)

55. Scott Her. #2: 4 (Alabama)

56. Brent E. #3: -4 (Oklahoma)

56. Justin H.: -4 (Alabama)

56. Damien R. #1: -4 (Alabama)

59. Klei R.: -32 (Alabama)

60. Sally R.: -36 (Notre Dame)

61. Max W. #2: -42 (Alabama)

62. Craig G.: -48 (Alabama)

63. Dan S.: -58 (Alabama)

64. Tim N.: -68 (Alabama)

64. Ashley D.: -68 (Alabama)

66. Jay H. #2: -140 (Notre Dame)

…and if you are curious about what team knocked you out, here is the updated matrix:

Total	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
1. Dylan B.: 555 (-225)	50.00%	50.00%	Wash
2. Mike S.: 535 (-245)	50.00%	Wash	Georgia
3. Ally H.: 521 (-259)	Initial	50.00%	25.00%
4. Becky H.: 520 (-260)	Wash	Georgia	50.00%
5. Mike W.: 515 (-265)	Initial	Mich St.	Penn St.
6. Pete J. #1: 511 (-269)	Missouri	Miss St.	Miss St.
7. Ryan W.: 502 (-278)	Mich St.	Penn St.	Penn St.
8. Jim W.: 499 (-281)	Initial	Utah	Utah
9. Jason S.: 496 (-284)	Initial	Pitt	Pitt
10. Dan Du.: 491 (-289)	UCF	Miss St.	25.00%
11. Peter F.: 488 (-292)	Initial	Initial	Initial
12. Max W. #1: 486 (-294)	Va. Tech	Mich St.	Mich St.
13. Josiah T. #3: 480 (-300)	Mich St.	Miss St.	Miss St.
14. Marc R.: 478 (-302)	Va. Tech	Miss St.	Utah
15. Jay H. #3: 476 (-304)	Missouri	Miss St.	UCF
16. Scott Has.: 475 (-305)	Initial	Miss St.	Miss St.
17. Michelle L. #1: 474 (-306)	Va. Tech	Missouri	Missouri
18. Kevin W.: 471 (-309)	Initial	Initial	Initial
19. Josiah T. #4: 467 (-313)	Initial	Miss St.	Miss St.
19. Ava S.: 467 (-313)	Initial	NC State	NC State
21. Julie S.: 466 (-314)	Mich St.	NC State	NC State
21. Andrzej R.: 466 (-314)	Missouri	Miss St.	Miss St.
21. James P.: 466 (-314)	Initial	Initial	Missouri
21. Brad R.: 466 (-314)	Initial	Miss St.	Miss St.
25. Emily J.: 464 (-316)	Initial	Initial	Initial
26. Amos W.: 462 (-318)	Initial	Initial	Initial
27. Mike N.: 460 (-320)	Initial	Initial	Initial
28. Hutch H.: 452 (-328)	Initial	Initial	Utah
29. Eric L.: 445 (-335)	Initial	Utah	Miss St.
30. Eric V.: 441 (-339)	Initial	Initial	Miss St.
31. Harrell R. #2: 440 (-340)	Initial	Va. Tech	Va. Tech
32. Brent E. #4: 439 (-341)	Initial	Initial	Initial
33. Brett W.: 434 (-346)	Initial	Initial	Initial
34. Ben S. #1: 432 (-348)	Initial	Initial	Mich St.
35. Bosun S.: 429 (-351)	Initial	Initial	Va. Tech
36. Jay H. #1: 428 (-352)	Initial	Initial	Va. Tech
37. Adam E.: 427 (-353)	Initial	Utah	Utah
38. Harrell R. #1: 426 (-354)	Initial	Initial	Initial
38. Josiah T. #2: 426 (-354)	Initial	Initial	Initial
40. Matt N.: 425 (-355)	Initial	Initial	Initial
41. Scott Her. #1: 422 (-358)	Initial	Initial	Initial
42. Jim D.: 421 (-359)	Initial	Initial	Initial
42. Ben S. #2: 421 (-359)	Initial	Initial	Initial
42. Nick S.: 421 (-359)	Initial	Initial	Initial
45. Damien R. #2: 416 (-364)	Initial	Initial	Initial
46. Brent E. #2: 415 (-365)	Initial	Initial	Initial
47. Nichole W.: 414 (-366)	Initial	Initial	Initial
48. Josiah T. #1: 413 (-367)	Initial	Initial	Initial
49. Michelle L. #2: 412 (-368)	Initial	Initial	Initial
50. Pete J. #2: 407 (-373)	Mich St.	Mich St.	Missouri
51. Brent E. #1: 403 (-377)	Initial	Initial	Initial
51. Dan Dz.: 403 (-377)	Initial	Initial	Va. Tech
53. Dustin B.: 396 (-384)	Initial	Initial	Initial
54. Grant F.: 394 (-386)	Initial	Initial	Initial
55. Scott Her. #2: 392 (-388)	Initial	Initial	Initial
56. Brent E. #3: 388 (-392)	Initial	Initial	Initial
56. Justin H.: 388 (-392)	Initial	Initial	Initial
56. Damien R. #1: 388 (-392)	Initial	Initial	Initial
59. Klei R.: 374 (-406)	Initial	Initial	Va. Tech
60. Sally R.: 372 (-408)	Initial	Initial	Initial
61. Max W. #2: 369 (-411)	Initial	Va. Tech	Pitt
62. Craig G.: 366 (-414)	Initial	Initial	Initial
63. Dan S.: 361 (-419)	Initial	Initial	Initial
64. Tim N.: 356 (-424)	Initial	Initial	Initial
64. Ashley D.: 356 (-424)	Initial	Va. Tech	Pitt
66. Jay H. #2: 320 (-460)	Initial	Initial	Initial

OK, now the important part.  Here are the single game eliminations for the Championship game.  I’m actually happy to see that this game will make a difference.  A lot of the time, this pool is decided before the last game.

If Alabama wins:

Dylan B. wins 1^st place.

Ally H. wins 2^nd place.

Becky H. wins 3^rd place.

If Clemson wins:

Mike S. wins 1^st place.

Dylan B. wins 2^nd place.

If the total score is >62, Dan Du. wins 3^rd place.

If the total score <62, Ally H. wins 3^rd place.

If the final score = 62, I’ll split the 3^rd place winnings between Ally H. and Dan Du.

Readers of this blog have known for a long time that I’ve rooted for Ally H.  I think she may be the youngest person to enter, and she’s been doing it for many, many years.  Her father, Scott Her. #1 & #2 wanted to be sure that I mentioned that Ally H. is 12 years old and knows nothing about football.  I would argue that her results this year don’t exactly back up that statement.  I know Scott has won this pool before, and if Alabama wins, the entire family (Scott, Becky, Ally) will have placed at some point, so maybe there’s something inherent that he’s not taking into consideration.  She may just be a prodigy.  That’s the narrative I’m going to spin.

Good luck to everyone!!!!