Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Bowl Pool Final Wrap Up

 Well, we are finally done with the pool, and it all came down to the final game, which doesn’t always happen.  Honestly, it may not have happened this year either, but everyone lost points due to matchups getting changed and bowl games getting cancelled. 

The average sheet lost 141.5 points because of COVID-related games.  I was on the low end, with only 108 points lost in those games, while my Dad topped out the list with 204 points lost.  That clearly skewed the results, although the three people that won money were pretty close to the average.

The take away for me with this data is that there are too many bowl games.  I particularly don’t like when there are so many that they have to play more than one at the same time.  That just makes my job harder.  I propose one or two games a day during the week, and 4 games on weekends.  One game at a time.  That will never happen, but I would like it.  I also may actually watch more of them if that were the case, but it’s hard to say.  I was pretty dead set against watching many of the bowl games and I still watched all or part of easily 15 of the games.

We also needed the Championship game to decide the winner of this thing.  We all knew Hutch was going to get either 1st or 2nd, but every other place was up for grabs.  So, there was something on the line in the last game.

So, here are the final standings of the 2021-22 Bowl Pool:

1. Matt N.: 587 (-394)

2. Hutch H.: 577 (-404)

3. Chad L.: 552 (-429)

4. Becky H.: 551 (-430)

5. Dan D.: 545 (-436)

6. Klei R.: 535 (-446)

7. Mark A.: 534 (-447)

8. Cam L.: 533 (-448)

9. Scott H. #2: 530 (-451)

10. Dylan B.: 523 (-458)

11. Josiah T. #2: 521 (-460)

12. Brian K.: 507 (-474)

13. Adam O. #3: 503 (-478)

14. Mike W.: 500 (-481)

15. Josiah T. #1: 494 (-487)

16. Mike N.: 492 (-489)

17. Daniel E.: 484 (-497)

18. Brent S.: 483 (-498)

19. Adam O. #2: 482 (-499)

20. Dylan L.: 481 (-500)

21. Jay H. #2: 480 (-501)

22. Adam O. #1: 478 (-503)

23. Michelle L. #1: 477 (-504)

24. Jason S.: 474 (-507)

25. Marc R.: 472 (-509)

25. Ben S.: 472 (-509)

27. Ryan W.: 462 (-519)

28. Adam O. #4: 456 (-525)

29. Damien R.: 448 (-533)

30. Michelle L. #2: 441 (-540)

31. Stefan K.: 440 (-541)

32. Larry G. #2: 436 (-545)

33. Pete J. #2: 435 (-546)

34. Brad R.: 425 (-556)

35. Scott H. #1: 423 (-558)

36. Lee K.: 416 (-565)

37. Amy L.: 415 (-566)

38. Pete J. #1: 409 (-572)

39. Dustin B.: 402 (-579)

39. Jay H. #1: 402 (-579)

41. Brett W.: 398 (-583)

42. Tom B.: 395 (-586)

43. Matt M.: 393 (-588)

44. Adam E.: 390 (-591)

45. Larry G. #1: 380 (-601)

46. Weston T. (Shane): 370 (-611)

47. Emily T.: 367 (-614)

48. Doug L.: 357 (-624)

49. Ally H.: 354 (-627)

50. Grant F.: 333 (-648)

51. Creighton H.: 304 (-677)

Congratulations to Matt N.  He is the big winner this year.

Matt N. was always lurking at the top of the % chance rankings from the start.  In my initial calculations, he was 4th with a 7.7% chance to win.  He dropped down as low as 5th after the Tennessee loss in the Liberty Bowl with a 4.7% chance to win.  His odds almost doubles after Pitt lost to Michigan State and he survived a must-win game with Georgia over Michigan.  All in all, he 8-3 over the last 11 games, picking up 251 points and only dropping 43 (with 22 coming in the LSU / Kansas State game, when his odds couldn’t change).

However, he wasn’t the person that picked the most games correctly.  That honor goes to 2nd place finisher, Hutch H.  Hutch H. picked 27 games correctly to beat the field by 2 games.  Matt N. had 25 to come in 2nd.  The average # of correct guesses was 19.27, so these two really separated themselves from the field.  Hutch, I know has won this pool before.  I’m not sure what his secret is, but it’s not easy to even place in these pools, so to get money in more than one is very impressive.

Some more fun facts:

Highest points per win: Adam O. #4: 26.82 (456 points / 17 wins)

Lowest points per win: Emily T.: 19.32 (367 points / 19 wins)

Most Top 10 wins: 5 people tied with 8

Least Top 10 wins: 2 people tied with 2 (Emily T., Grant F.)

Best finish for someone who was dead for 1st when I first calculated odds: Josiah T. #2 (11th place)

Best finish for someone who was totally dead when I first calculated odds: Dylan L. (20th place).

# of people knocked out of all 3 payouts by the same team: 6 (Adam O. #3, Josiah T. #1 – Pitt, Ben S. – Tennessee, Stefan K. – Cincinnati, Pete J. #2, Brad R. – Michigan)=

I hope everyone enjoyed the pool this year.  It was pretty stressful as we were doing it complements of COVID.  Here’s hoping that next year is smoother and that March Madness goes better (it went OK last year).

Thanks!!!!!!

Saturday, January 1, 2022

Bowl Pool update - I can't believe more than 7 people are still reading this edition.

 The Sugar Bowl is over, which means that there are only 2 games left in the Bowl Season.  There’s something called the Texas Bowl on 1/4 and the Championship Game, which I think is being played sometime in Mid-March.  At least it seems that way.  It may actually be on the 13th, which is just long enough for everyone to forget about college football in its entirety.

But there were some developments in the Bowl pool after the Sugar Bowl.

First, there will be no ties this year.  I hate tiebreakers, and I am glad that none will be required.  All scenarios that ends in ties have been eliminated.  That makes things super easy for me.

Second, we are down to 7 people that can win something.  As we know from before, Hutvh H. is locked into one of those spots, but the other 2 are up for grabs.

Third, almost everyone has only one way they can win.  The only exceptions to that rule are the aforementioned Hutch H. and Cam L., who can get either 2nd or 3rd depending on how games play out.

Fourth, as mentioned before, Matt N. must win the Championship game to win the pool and win any money.  The other 4 people will have to hit both the Texas Bowl winner and the Championship Game winner to finish in the money.

Fifth, by “hit the winner” of the Championship game, I mean have the result go your way because Becky H. can still get second despite having Michigan winning it all.  For her that means Georgia winning the title.  Too many people picked Alabama for her to stay in the running if that happens.

Here are the updated standings:

Total

1. Hutch H.: 572 (-369)

2. Matt N.: 552 (-372)

3. Becky H.: 551 (-371)

4. Cam L.: 533 (-395)

5. Scott H. #2: 529 (-416)

6. Mark A.: 525 (-412)

7. Chad L.: 517 (-419)

8. Brian K.: 507 (-403)

9. Mike W.: 500 (-423)

10. Klei R.: 500 (-437)

11. Mike N.: 491 (-454)

12. Josiah T. #2: 486 (-439)

13. Daniel E.: 484 (-440)

14. Adam O. #3: 483 (-443)

15. Dan D.: 481 (-436)

16. Dylan L.: 481 (-458)

17. Dylan B.: 476 (-458)

18. Michelle L. #1: 476 (-469)

19. Jason S.: 474 (-445)

20. Marc R.: 472 (-437)

21. Adam O. #2: 462 (-464)

22. Josiah T. #1: 459 (-478)

23. Adam O. #1: 458 (-468)

24. Brent S.: 448 (-457)

25. Ryan W.: 447 (-484)

26. Jay H. #2: 445 (-478)

27. Michelle L. #2: 440 (-505)

28. Adam O. #4: 436 (-490)

29. Larry G. #2: 436 (-496)

30. Pete J. #2: 431 (-511)

31. Ben S.: 417 (-509)

32. Lee K.: 416 (-500)

33. Scott H. #1: 416 (-523)

34. Amy L.: 415 (-512)

35. Damien R.: 410 (-533)

36. Pete J. #1: 409 (-533)

37. Stefan K.: 405 (-498)

38. Brad R.: 404 (-521)

39. Dustin B.: 402 (-533)

40. Tom B.: 395 (-524)

41. Matt M.: 384 (-553)

42. Weston T. (Shane): 370 (-572)

43. Jay H. #1: 368 (-544)

44. Brett W.: 368 (-548)

45. Ally H.: 354 (-582)

46. Adam E.: 353 (-556)

47. Emily T.: 352 (-579)

48. Doug L.: 348 (-589)

49. Larry G. #1: 345 (-592)

50. Grant F.: 318 (-613)

51. Creighton H.: 304 (-619)

…and the matrix:

Row Labels

1st Place

2nd Place

3rd Place

Hutch H.

50.00%

25.00%

25.00%

Matt N.

50.00%

Utah

Utah

Cam L.

N. Dame

25.00%

25.00%

Becky H.

Iowa

25.00%

Iowa

Mark A.

Utah

25.00%

Ole Miss

Chad L.

N. Dame

Ole Miss

25.00%

Brian K.

Iowa

Iowa

25.00%

Scott H. #2

Pitt

Iowa

Ole Miss

Mike W.

Michigan

Ole Miss

Ole Miss

Klei R.

Az State

Cincinnati

Cincinnati

Mike N.

Initial

N. Car

Tennessee

Josiah T. #2

Initial

Initial

Pitt

Daniel E.

Tennessee

Tennessee

Az State

Adam O. #3

Pitt

Pitt

Pitt

Dan D.

Utah

Iowa

Utah

Dylan L.

Initial

Initial

Initial

Dylan B.

Tennessee

Tennessee

Pitt

Michelle L. #1

Tennessee

Pitt

Michigan

Jason S.

Az State

N. Dame

Utah

Marc R.

N. Dame

Utah

Utah

Adam O. #2

Initial

Tennessee

Tennessee

Josiah T. #1

Pitt

Pitt

Pitt

Adam O. #1

Initial

Initial

Tennessee

Brent S.

Penn St.

Iowa

Iowa

Ryan W.

Pitt

Michigan

Michigan

Jay H. #2

Initial

Pitt

Pitt

Michelle L. #2

Initial

N. Car

N. Car

Adam O. #4

Initial

Tennessee

Pitt

Larry G. #2

Initial

Initial

Initial

Pete J. #2

Michigan

Michigan

Michigan

Ben S.

Tennessee

Tennessee

Tennessee

Lee K.

Initial

Initial

Initial

Scott H. #1

Initial

Initial

Initial

Amy L.

Initial

N. Car

N. Car

Damien R.

Initial

Initial

Initial

Pete J. #1

Initial

Initial

Initial

Stefan K.

Cincinnati

Cincinnati

Cincinnati

Brad R.

Michigan

Michigan

Michigan

Dustin B.

Initial

Pitt

Pitt

Tom B.

Initial

Initial

Initial

Matt M.

Initial

Initial

Initial

Weston T. (Shane)

Initial

Initial

Initial

Jay H. #1

Initial

Tennessee

Tennessee

Brett W.

Initial

Initial

Tennessee

Ally H.

Pitt

Az State

Az State

Adam E.

Az State

Az State

Cincinnati

Emily T.

Initial

Initial

Initial

Doug L.

Initial

Initial

Initial

Larry G. #1

Initial

Initial

Initial

Grant F.

Initial

Initial

Initial

Creighton H.

Initial

Initial

Initial

Just so I don’t have to do this later, here are the eliminations for the Texas Bowl:

If LSU Wins:

Cam L. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Chad L. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Hutch H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Mark A. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

 

If Kansas State Wins:

Becky H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Brian K. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Cam L. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Hutch H. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

 

2nd Place

Pick

Points

1.: Mark A. (25%)

Kansas State

9

1.: Hutch H. (25%)

Kansas State

5

1.: Cam L. (25%)

LSU

18

1.: Becky H. (25%)

LSU

24


3rd Place

Pick

Points

1.: Hutch H. (25%)

Kansas State

5

1.: Chad L. (25%)

LSU

10

1.: Cam L. (25%)

LSU

18

1.: Brian K. (25%)

LSU

36

   

Interesting that Chad L. needs LSU to lose to stay alive, even though he picked them for 10 points.  That’s largely because If LSU wins, Becky will gain 14 points on him, making him 48 points behind her.  If Georgia Wins, he actually gets snaked out of 3rd place by Hutch H., who picked Alabama to win it, but is currently 55 points ahead, and Chad only could make up 10+35 = 45 points.  Wow.  OK.

Well, enjoy a few days off from college football.  Kirk Herbstreit is an idiot, which many of already suspected, but I will endorse here anyway.

Good luck in the Texas Bowl everyone!!!!