Bowl Pool - Calm before the ensuing bloodbath edition.

 Things are starting to get a little clearer in the Bowl Pool.  This also happens in the March Madness pool as we get closer to the end, but the difference between the two is that this pool can more or less end prior to the final game because that final game is only worth 35 / 981 = 3.6% of the total points.  In the March Madness pool, the last game accounts for 1/6 = 16.7%, so you absolutely have to get that one right.  That’s not true here, but there are still people with Georgia and Alabama alive to win this thing.

I think we started the day with 13 people alive to win something.  Three games in and we whittled that number down to 12.  A lot of people are knocked out of 1^st place contention, but because there are 3 payouts, that means it’s harder to knock people completely out of the pool.  It also helps that no one is really running away with the points rankings which is keeping a lot of people in it.

The big change over the first three games today is that we are down to only 4 people that can still win it all.  Even with that, no one is >50% to win, so everyone has some work left to do.  On the flip side, the top 3 people all have >50% to win something, led by Hutch H., who has a 75% chance to win something.  That’s the most of anyone so far.  Even with that, he still has to win some games to pocket the money.  There have been a lot of people in this pool that have good runs and are out of it now.

So, here’s the points rankings:

Total

1. Hutch H.: 529 (-369)

2. Mark A.: 525 (-364)

3. Matt N.: 509 (-372)

4. Scott H. #2: 496 (-414)

5. Chad L.: 480 (-406)

6. Michelle L. #1: 474 (-460)

7. Cam L.: 473 (-395)

8. Becky H.: 466 (-371)

9. Mike W.: 465 (-398)

10. Brian K.: 462 (-403)

11. Jason S.: 458 (-417)

12. Dan D.: 457 (-419)

13. Mike N.: 449 (-452)

14. Josiah T. #2: 445 (-437)

15. Adam O. #3: 445 (-441)

16. Daniel E.: 444 (-440)

17. Dylan B.: 443 (-458)

18. Klei R.: 442 (-437)

19. Marc R.: 439 (-407)

20. Pete J. #2: 431 (-462)

21. Dylan L.: 427 (-458)

22. Adam O. #2: 424 (-462)

23. Adam O. #1: 420 (-466)

24. Josiah T. #1: 416 (-478)

25. Larry G. #2: 413 (-496)

26. Jay H. #2: 410 (-469)

27. Michelle L. #2: 410 (-505)

28. Ben S.: 405 (-498)

29. Adam O. #4: 398 (-488)

30. Amy L.: 397 (-497)

31. Scott H. #1: 384 (-488)

32. Matt M.: 384 (-519)

33. Dustin B.: 382 (-507)

34. Ryan W.: 380 (-484)

35. Brad R.: 372 (-515)

36. Brent S.: 368 (-457)

37. Stefan K.: 364 (-461)

38. Damien R.: 360 (-533)

38. Pete J. #1: 360 (-533)

40. Lee K.: 348 (-500)

41. Larry G. #1: 344 (-590)

42. Brett W.: 337 (-528)

43. Jay H. #1: 328 (-511)

44. Emily T.: 327 (-578)

45. Weston T. (Shane): 325 (-572)

46. Adam E.: 320 (-524)

47. Grant F.: 318 (-587)

48. Tom B.: 317 (-524)

49. Ally H.: 317 (-552)

50. Doug L.: 271 (-589)

51. Creighton H.: 242 (-619)

…and the matrix:

Row Labels	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
Hutch H.	25.00%	31.25%	18.75%
Mark A.	37.50%	28.13%	3.13%
Matt N.	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%
Chad L.	N. Dame	6.25%	18.75%
Marc R.	N. Dame	6.25%	12.50%
Scott H. #2	Pitt	Iowa	12.50%
Cam L.	N. Dame	6.25%	6.25%
Dan D.	6.25%	Iowa	6.25%
Mike W.	Michigan	3.13%	6.25%
Becky H.	Iowa	6.25%	Iowa
Brian K.	Iowa	Iowa	6.25%
Jason S.	Az State	N. Dame	3.13%
Michelle L. #1	Tennessee	Pitt	Michigan
Mike N.	Initial	N. Car	Tennessee
Josiah T. #2	Initial	Initial	Pitt
Adam O. #3	Pitt	Pitt	Pitt
Daniel E.	Tennessee	Tennessee	Az State
Dylan B.	Tennessee	Tennessee	Pitt
Klei R.	Az State	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Pete J. #2	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
Dylan L.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Adam O. #2	Initial	Tennessee	Tennessee
Adam O. #1	Initial	Initial	Tennessee
Josiah T. #1	Pitt	Pitt	Pitt
Larry G. #2	Initial	Initial	Initial
Jay H. #2	Initial	Pitt	Pitt
Michelle L. #2	Initial	N. Car	N. Car
Ben S.	Tennessee	Tennessee	Tennessee
Adam O. #4	Initial	Tennessee	Pitt
Amy L.	Initial	N. Car	N. Car
Scott H. #1	Initial	Initial	Initial
Matt M.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Dustin B.	Initial	Pitt	Pitt
Ryan W.	Pitt	Michigan	Michigan
Brad R.	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
Brent S.	Penn St.	Iowa	Iowa
Stefan K.	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Damien R.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Pete J. #1	Initial	Initial	Initial
Lee K.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Larry G. #1	Initial	Initial	Initial
Brett W.	Initial	Initial	Tennessee
Jay H. #1	Initial	Tennessee	Tennessee
Emily T.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Weston T. (Shane)	Initial	Initial	Initial
Adam E.	Az State	Az State	Cincinnati
Grant F.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Tom B.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Ally H.	Pitt	Az State	Az State
Doug L.	Initial	Initial	Initial
Creighton H.	Initial	Initial	Initial

Fun thing to notice as we get fewer and fewer games left.  Dan D. can win 1^st, but has no path to win 2^nd, but does have a path to win 3^rd.  That’s because with so few games left, the amount of possible outcomes dwindles pretty quick.  A lot of that also depends on the amount of points people have put on games and how many points other people around him put on the same games.  It’s all interesting to navigate through if you have the time to do some data analysis.

But here are the eliminations for the Rose Bowl:

 

If Ohio State Wins:

Dan D. is eliminated from 1^st & 3^rd place contention.

Jason S. is eliminated from 3^rd place contention.

Marc R. is eliminated from 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

Mark A. is eliminated from 1^st place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

 

If Utah Wins:

Becky H. is eliminated from 2^nd place contention.

Brian K. is eliminated from 3^rd place contention.

Cam L. is eliminated from 2^nd & 3^rd place contention.

Chad L. is eliminated from 2^nd place contention.

Hutch H. is eliminated from 1^st place contention.

Mark A. is eliminated from 3^rd place contention.

Mike W. is eliminated from 2^nd place contention.

Rank for 1st	Pick	Points
1.: Mark A. (37.5%)	Utah	25
2.: Matt N. (31.25%)	Ohio State	42
3.: Hutch H. (25%)	Ohio State	37
4.: Dan D. (6.25%)	Utah	17

So, it looks like a bloodbath regardless of who wins.  That makes sense, since after this game, there are only 8 ways the pool can play out.  If you figure that we still have 12 people alive, the end of the road has to come some time.

Good luck to everyone!!!!