Purdue / NC State eliminations

 It’s been almost a full week since we last had NCAA Men’s basketball to watch, and today is a very crucial day for anyone that is still alive to win something.  There are a few people that can still win with multiple scenarios, but most of the 19 people still alive need one specific set of outcomes from these last 3 games.

Based on the point spreads, these games don’t really promise to be all that great.  The first game of the day has the shortest line in Vegas, and that is 9 points.  Based on the data I have, games where the favorite is favored by 9 point, the favorite wins about 85% of the time.  It will have to be quite an upset for NC State to win this one.  Then again, they weren’t supposed to win A game in this tournament.  They were only favored in one game because Oakland knocked off Kentucky.  Still, they beat a 6, a 2 and a 4 already, so they’ve got a chance.  AS they say, they’ve definitely got a chance.  They are playing the game.  You know who doesn’t have a chance?  - every other team in the South region.

So, here’s what happens depending on the outcome of the first game:

If Purdue wins:

Beau H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Greg R. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Guillermo V. is eliminated from 3rd, 4th & 5th place contention.

Harrell R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Howard S. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

John Mack #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Luis B. #3 is eliminated from 4th & 5th place contention.

Michelle L. #4 is eliminated from 5th place contention.

Michelle L. #5 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Off Efficiency is eliminated from 3rd, 4th & 5th place contention.

Patrick McC. #1 is eliminated from 4th & 5th place contention.

If NC State wins:

Beau H. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Becky H. is eliminated from 5th place contention.

Brad R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Chris L. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Dan L. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention.

Greg R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Guillermo V. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Howard S. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention.

John Mack #1 is eliminated from 5th place contention.

Luis B. #2 is eliminated from 5th place contention.

Michael S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Michelle L. #4 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Michelle L. #5 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Mike N. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Off Efficiency is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Ryan G. is eliminated from 5th place contention.

   

It looks like we are getting down to the point where there are so few games left that no matter what happens, some people will be eliminated from something.  For instance, Guillermo V. will either be eliminated from 1^st or 3^rd, 4^th & 5^th.  The swings left when every game is worth 16 or 32 points makes it so that one of those two outcomes has to be true.

There are also some scenarios that could end in a tie.  When that happens, I say that you have a 50/50 chance to win either of the payouts.  That’s also how someone could be eliminated from 2 place at once.

All right.  Virtually everyone has something at stake in this game.  It should be fun.  Purdue and NC State have been fun to watch all tournament, so I’m looking forward to a good game.

Good luck everyone!!!!!