2014 - Bowl Pool, one game in,

Well, we have one game in the books.  That accounts for <3% of all games, and really, about 1.3% of all points wagered.  It also marks the first "upset" of the season in that the team favored by Vegas lost, although it seemed as though we weren't entirely fooled by that, since Louisiana-Lafayette was picked by 30/54 entries.

This brings us to the first standings update of the season.   For those unfamiliar, I keep track of the rankings this way, until there are sufficiently few games left that I can calculate the mathematical  probabilities of various sheets winning the pool.  That should happen around 12/29.  For now, the tiebreaker is the fewest points lost.  That means that my Dad loses the tiebreaker with everyone since he was the person with the most points on Nevada (and they lost).  I always say that half of the game is how many points you win, but another half is how many points you avoid losing.  Everyone will lose points.  That's the fun of this thing....

So, here are the initial standings after one game:

1. Brent E. #1: 34 (0)

2. Brent E. #2: 27 (0)

3. Andrew D.: 26 (0)

4. CBS Fornelli: 24 (0)

5. CBS Hinnen: 23 (0)

6. Sally R.: 21 (0)

6. Ally H.: 21 (0)

8. Jim W.: 20 (0)

9. Mark N. #1: 19 (0)

10. Carl B.: 17 (0)

11. Becky H.: 15 (0)

12. Damien R. #1: 10 (0)

13. Hutch H. #1: 9 (0)

14. Klei R.: 8 (0)

15. Ray R.: 7 (0)

15. Andrew O.: 7 (0)

17. Ryan G.: 6 (0)

18. Michelle L. #1: 4 (0)

19. Brent S. #1: 3 (0)

19. Hal R. #2: 3 (0)

19. Hal R. #3: 3 (0)

22. Mike S.: 2 (0)

22. Pete J. #2: 2 (0)

22. Pete J. #1: 2 (0)

22. Michelle L. #2: 2 (0)

26. Ben W.: 1 (0)

26. Damien R. #2: 1 (0)

26. Dave M.: 1 (0)

26. Jay H. #1: 1 (0)

26. Scott H. #2: 1 (0)

31. Jay H. #2: 0 (-1)

31. Chad C.: 0 (-1)

31. Hutch H. #2: 0 (-1)

34. Kevin W.: 0 (-2)

35. Hal R. #1: 0 (-3)

36. Ryan W.: 0 (-4)

37. Adam E.: 0 (-5)

37. Matt N.: 0 (-5)

37. Lance L.: 0 (-5)

40. Sarah G.: 0 (-6)

41. Dustin B.: 0 (-7)

41. Dylan B.: 0 (-7)

43. Daniel D.: 0 (-8)

43. Brent S. #2: 0 (-8)

45. Chad L.: 0 (-10)

45. Mandi A.: 0 (-10)

47. Marc R.: 0 (-11)

48. Mark N. #2: 0 (-15)

49. Amos W.: 0 (-16)

49. Tim N.: 0 (-16)

51. Presley J.: 0 (-17)

52. Scott H. #1: 0 (-19)

53. Mike W.: 0 (-22)

54. Brad R.: 0 (-24)

Later on, I may do a net ranking (Points won - points lost), but that's the same as this ranking for now, so I'll hold off on that.  I tend to think that's more indicative of your chances of winning.

I should probably note a rule change that I put in place this year.  Notice how Brent is in 1st and 2nd.  If he finishes that way, he will only get 1st place money.  Andrew D. would get 2nd and CBS Fornelli would get 3rd.  Good start to the defending champion this year, and a surprising good start to the CBS "Experts".  Maybe they'll actually do good this year.  It would be a first time for everything.

There are 2 more games coming in quick succession this afternoon.  The first is the Gildan New Mexico Bowl.  This is otherwise known as the "Do your laundry with the game on the background" Bowl, or the "Watch the other Bowl Game going on at the same time" Bowl.  The reason is because it has the most lopsided pick distribution of any bowl game in the season.  53 people took Utah State (average of 29.4 points, and one whole person took UTEP.  I can only assume that is because of some deeply felt feeling of civic pride for the people of the city of El Paso, Texas that my mother decided to go with UTEP, but now I hope they win.  That would be quite an upset and deeply entertaining.

The picks look like this:

For Utah State:

Brent E. #1: 38

Dave M.: 38

Ray R.: 38

Chad L.: 37

Hutch H. #1: 37

Hutch H. #2: 37

Kevin W.: 37

Mark N. #1: 37

Mark N. #2: 37

Pete J. #1: 37

Pete J. #2: 37

Adam E.: 36

Brent S. #2: 36

Damien R. #2: 36

Hal R. #1: 36

Hal R. #2: 36

Hal R. #3: 36

Mandi A.: 36

Marc R.: 36

Presley J.: 36

Ryan G.: 36

Sarah G.: 36

CBS Hinnen: 35

Becky H.: 34

Matt N.: 34

Mike W.: 34

Brent S. #1: 33

Michelle L. #1: 33

Lance L.: 32

Andrew D.: 31

CBS Fornelli: 31

Mike S.: 31

Ally H.: 30

Daniel D.: 30

Dustin B.: 29

Tim N.: 29

Ben W.: 28

Scott H. #2: 27

Brent E. #2: 26

Amos W.: 25

Brad R.: 25

Klei R.: 25

Dylan B.: 23

Michelle L. #2: 22

Carl B.: 21

Scott H. #1: 20

Jim W.: 19

Damien R. #1: 13

Chad C.: 10

Jay H. #2: 10

Andrew O.: 9

Jay H. #1: 2

Ryan W.: 1

...and for UTEP:

Sally R.: 18

The mean pick is Utah State for 28.5 points, and the median is Utah State for 33.  In Vegas, the line is Utah State -10.5, making it the 2nd highest point spread in the pool.

The later game might be more interesting.  The Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl features Utah vs. Colorado State.  I guess if you are a fan of football in Utah, you've got a real channel-flipping problem this afternoon, since Utah and Utah State are playing at the same time.  I also have no idea what "Royal Purple" is, so I'm just assuming that this bowl game is solely sponsored by a color.

The Vegas line for this game is Utah -3, which makes it more or less a toss up.  You would think that puts it near the bottom of the total points wagered, but because so many games are like this one, it winds up 24th in points, meaning  15 games have fewer points wagered on it.

The picks seem to be pretty evenly split between the two teams.  Here are the breakdowns:

31 people chose Utah (18.52 point average), while 23 chose Colorado State (15.87 point average).

Here are the picks for Utah:

Ray R.: 34

Andrew D.: 29

CBS Fornelli: 29

Adam E.: 28

Matt N.: 28

Scott H. #2: 28

Scott H. #1: 27

CBS Hinnen: 26

Pete J. #1: 25

Pete J. #2: 25

Ally H.: 24

Brent E. #1: 23

Brent E. #2: 23

Mark N. #2: 23

Mike S.: 23

Ryan G.: 22

Dave M.: 20

Kevin W.: 20

Lance L.: 20

Dustin B.: 18

Brent S. #1: 14

Andrew O.: 13

Brent S. #2: 10

Dylan B.: 10

Carl B.: 7

Hutch H. #2: 7

Marc R.: 4

Damien R. #2: 3

Chad C.: 2

Ryan W.: 2

Brad R.: 1

... and here are the picks for Colorado State:

Becky H.: 38

Damien R. #1: 34

Ben W.: 27

Hal R. #1: 26

Hal R. #2: 26

Hal R. #3: 26

Sarah G.: 22

Mandi A.: 21

Sally R.: 19

Amos W.: 17

Tim N.: 17

Daniel D.: 16

Jay H. #2: 15

Klei R.: 13

Chad L.: 11

Michelle L. #1: 9

Michelle L. #2: 6

Jim W.: 5

Mark N. #1: 5

Hutch H. #1: 4

Mike W.: 4

Jay H. #1: 3

Presley J.: 1

The mean pick is Utah for 3.76 points, and the median is Utah for 3 points.

Good luck to everyone!!!!

2014-15 College Bowl Pool - Before New Orleans Bowl

Welcome everyone to my annual bacchanalia of College Football.  This is something like the 6th year in a row I've run this pool, and unfortunately marks the first time ever that we had fewer entrants than the previous year.  That's not entirely unexpected by me, since I switched jobs last year, and did virtually no lobbying at my new job for new people to enter.  That will probably change for the March Madness pool, but that's still a few months away.

This year I've received 54 entries, which is still pretty solid.  I think I said I'd pay out 3 spots if I got more than 50, so that seems like a done deal.  I entered 2 sheets for the "experts" at CBS.  I want to see how bad they do.  If they happen to win anything, I'll donate the money to charity.  I doubt that will happen.  Every year I'm more and more convinced that those guys don't really know what they are talking about (reference every Seth Davis entry in the MM pool).

I like the set up this year, with the extra game.  I arbitrarily chose 30 points for the last game, which looks like it's going to be a good number, as that makes it the game with the 2nd most points on it.  That seems appropriate.  I discovered something to keep in mind for next year:  More people need to NOT pick chalk in that game.  Of the 54 entries, only 3 people did NOT pick Alabama or Oregon.  Congratulations to perennial favorite Ally H. for being the only person with the guts to pick the undefeated and defending national champion Florida State to win.  I hope that works out for her.  I never thought I'd pull for Florida State, but if they are up against Alabama in the finals, I know who I am pulling for.

...but there's a game going on right now, and it seems like a good way to ease into the Bowl Season.  The New Orleans Bowl has the 2nd fewest points wagered on it.  That's probably because the line is only Nevada -2.  That didn't stop 30 people from picking Louisiana-Layette.

Here is the distribution of the picks:

For Louisiana-Lafayette:

Brent E. #1: 34

Brent E. #2: 27

Andrew D.: 26

CBS Fornelli: 24

CBS Hinnen: 23

Ally H.: 21

Sally R.: 21

Jim W.: 20

Mark N. #1: 19

Carl B.: 17

Becky H.: 15

Damien R. #1: 10

Hutch H. #1: 9

Klei R.: 8

Andrew O.: 7

Ray R.: 7

Ryan G.: 6

Michelle L. #1: 4

Brent S. #1: 3

Hal R. #2: 3

Hal R. #3: 3

Michelle L. #2: 2

Mike S.: 2

Pete J. #1: 2

Pete J. #2: 2

Ben W.: 1

Damien R. #2: 1

Dave M.: 1

Jay H. #1: 1

Scott H. #2: 1

.

..and for Nevada:

Brad R.: 24

Mike W.: 22

Scott H. #1: 19

Presley J.: 17

Amos W.: 16

Tim N.: 16

Mark N. #2: 15

Marc R.: 11

Chad L.: 10

Mandi A.: 10

Brent S. #2: 8

Daniel D.: 8

Dustin B.: 7

Dylan B.: 7

Sarah G.: 6

Adam E.: 5

Lance L.: 5

Matt N.: 5

Ryan W.: 4

Hal R. #1: 3

Kevin W.: 2

Chad C.: 1

Hutch H. #2: 1

Jay H. #2: 1

For those not scoring at home, the mean pick is Louisiana-Lafayette for 1.8 points, with the median pick being Louisiana-Lafayette for 1 point.  It really can't get much closer than that.

I don't think I've mentioned it yet, but I really like the matchups this year.  No less than 29 of the 38 games have point spreads of less than a TD.  That means that everyone is forced to put a ton of points on a game that is pretty close to a toss up.  I love that.

I'll be back with more updates and stats later today.  There's 5 games today, not the least of which is the all-important Famous Idaho Potato Bowl featuring my beloved WMU Broncos.  Good luck to everyone!!!!

Intro to College Bowl Pool 2014

Hello again everyone.  It's College Football Bowl season again.  Every year, I gin up a long e-mail explaining the pool and all the details, but through the magic of the blog, I can just dust off last year's introduction and change a few things to it to make it relevant to this year pool.  So without any further ado.  There are 2 major changes to the pool this year, so make sure that you read all the way to the end.:

 

Hello again everyone.  It's that time of year again - time for the 5th(?) annual college bowl pool.  This e-mail is the official invite to play again this year.  Last year we had 89 entries, which was a pretty good showing given that it's not as easy to enter as the March Madness pool.  Most of the details are the same as last year, but there a few changes, so please read everything over.  I'll be happy to answer any questions that you may have.

How much does it cost? 

As with virtually all my pools, entry fee is $5.00 per entry.  You can enter as many times as you like.  There are various ways you can pay entry fees, although PayPal is definitely NOT one of them.  They are pretty stingy regarding "gambling" using that sight, so I don't want to use it.

1. Cash

2. A personal check mailed to:  Klei Richards 2168 Carol View Dr. #B205, Cardiff CA 92007.  That worked reasonably well last time, so I see no reason not to continue using it.  I highly recommend having your bank send me a check as if I am the Cable company or something.  I get several checks at a time that way.

 

Next: How do I enter?

I'm attaching the spreadsheet for you to fill out.  The concept is relatively simple.  There are 38 Bowl games this year.  First time around, pick who you think will win each game.  Once you've got that figured out, rank how confident you are that the team you picked to win will actually win from 1-38 using each number exactly one time.  For example, if I like Western Michigan to win the Idaho Potato Bowl, I may put 38 points on that game.  If I don't feel particularly confident about it, I may put only 1.  If the team you picked wins the game, you get the amount of points that you placed on that game.  The person with the most points at the end of all the games wins.

 

For those that haven't played in one of my pools before, I think the thing that separates mine from others is the amount of statistics that I generate.  I like to compile a lot of statistics regarding pick distributions as the games go on, but I really like to figure out when picks are mathematically eliminated from contention.  Many times, people need to have the team they pick lose because it would hurt someone ahead of them in the standings more.  I like finding little gems like that.

 

Once all the picks have been submitted to me, I will send out a spreadsheet containing everyone's picks and points so you can keep me honest and play along (if that's your thing).  As with pools in the past, I will be compiling stats and commentary on the games as they go on.  The difference is that this year, I'm just going to use a blog format instead of sending e-mail out to everyone.  That makes it less slightly less work for me, and for those that couldn't care less about the standings, you don't have to be inundated with updates.  The blog site will be:

http://kleisports.blogspot.com/

I don't think there's any kind of password or anything to that, so it should be good to go.

 

Who can enter?

Anyone.  Feel free to pass this on to anyone that wants in.  The more people get in, the larger the prize pool so invite whoever you want.

 

What are the payouts?

Last year I had 89 people, and I paid out 3 places.  If I somehow manage to get 100, I'll pay out 4 places.  If I get <50, I'll pay out 2.

 

Anything else I need to know?

I don't think so.  If I missed something, let me know.  Also, if you want to be taken off distribution, let me know that as well.  I don't want to bother people that don't want to be bothered.

 

Good luck to everyone!!!!!

I forgot to mention, but the entries are due before the first game on the 20th of December.  When you send me your entry, let me know how you intend to pay.  Thanks.

 

Changes:

1. Payouts:  The last two years, I've had the same person win 2 of the 3 payouts.  That's great for the person that gets all the cash, but kind of sucks for everyone else.  Going forward, the rule will be that you can enter as many times as you want, but you can only win one place.  If someone manages to win 2 places, they will get paid out whatever the higher place is, and everyone else will move up one spot.  For instance, last year, we had one person get 1st and 2nd.  If that happens this year, that person would get paid out for 1st, the person who finished 3rd would get 2nd place money, and the 4th place person would win 3rd place.

2. The Last Game:  Unlike the wonderful BCS years, this year, we get an additional game to determine the national champion.  I wanted to incorporate that extra game, but it didn't seem quite right to include it in the confidence portion of the pool, so I've made the Championship game a fixed 30 points, but you have to choose 1 of the 4 eligible teams (Alabama, Oregon, Florida State or Ohio State).  I actually like this extra game.  It adds an extra wrinkle to the odds of winning - and also makes those semi-final games pretty crucial.