2014 - Bowl Pool, one game in,

Well, we have one game in the books.  That accounts for <3% of all games, and really, about 1.3% of all points wagered.  It also marks the first "upset" of the season in that the team favored by Vegas lost, although it seemed as though we weren't entirely fooled by that, since Louisiana-Lafayette was picked by 30/54 entries.

This brings us to the first standings update of the season.   For those unfamiliar, I keep track of the rankings this way, until there are sufficiently few games left that I can calculate the mathematical  probabilities of various sheets winning the pool.  That should happen around 12/29.  For now, the tiebreaker is the fewest points lost.  That means that my Dad loses the tiebreaker with everyone since he was the person with the most points on Nevada (and they lost).  I always say that half of the game is how many points you win, but another half is how many points you avoid losing.  Everyone will lose points.  That's the fun of this thing....

So, here are the initial standings after one game:

1. Brent E. #1: 34 (0)

2. Brent E. #2: 27 (0)

3. Andrew D.: 26 (0)

4. CBS Fornelli: 24 (0)

5. CBS Hinnen: 23 (0)

6. Sally R.: 21 (0)

6. Ally H.: 21 (0)

8. Jim W.: 20 (0)

9. Mark N. #1: 19 (0)

10. Carl B.: 17 (0)

11. Becky H.: 15 (0)

12. Damien R. #1: 10 (0)

13. Hutch H. #1: 9 (0)

14. Klei R.: 8 (0)

15. Ray R.: 7 (0)

15. Andrew O.: 7 (0)

17. Ryan G.: 6 (0)

18. Michelle L. #1: 4 (0)

19. Brent S. #1: 3 (0)

19. Hal R. #2: 3 (0)

19. Hal R. #3: 3 (0)

22. Mike S.: 2 (0)

22. Pete J. #2: 2 (0)

22. Pete J. #1: 2 (0)

22. Michelle L. #2: 2 (0)

26. Ben W.: 1 (0)

26. Damien R. #2: 1 (0)

26. Dave M.: 1 (0)

26. Jay H. #1: 1 (0)

26. Scott H. #2: 1 (0)

31. Jay H. #2: 0 (-1)

31. Chad C.: 0 (-1)

31. Hutch H. #2: 0 (-1)

34. Kevin W.: 0 (-2)

35. Hal R. #1: 0 (-3)

36. Ryan W.: 0 (-4)

37. Adam E.: 0 (-5)

37. Matt N.: 0 (-5)

37. Lance L.: 0 (-5)

40. Sarah G.: 0 (-6)

41. Dustin B.: 0 (-7)

41. Dylan B.: 0 (-7)

43. Daniel D.: 0 (-8)

43. Brent S. #2: 0 (-8)

45. Chad L.: 0 (-10)

45. Mandi A.: 0 (-10)

47. Marc R.: 0 (-11)

48. Mark N. #2: 0 (-15)

49. Amos W.: 0 (-16)

49. Tim N.: 0 (-16)

51. Presley J.: 0 (-17)

52. Scott H. #1: 0 (-19)

53. Mike W.: 0 (-22)

54. Brad R.: 0 (-24)

Later on, I may do a net ranking (Points won - points lost), but that's the same as this ranking for now, so I'll hold off on that.  I tend to think that's more indicative of your chances of winning.

I should probably note a rule change that I put in place this year.  Notice how Brent is in 1st and 2nd.  If he finishes that way, he will only get 1st place money.  Andrew D. would get 2nd and CBS Fornelli would get 3rd.  Good start to the defending champion this year, and a surprising good start to the CBS "Experts".  Maybe they'll actually do good this year.  It would be a first time for everything.

There are 2 more games coming in quick succession this afternoon.  The first is the Gildan New Mexico Bowl.  This is otherwise known as the "Do your laundry with the game on the background" Bowl, or the "Watch the other Bowl Game going on at the same time" Bowl.  The reason is because it has the most lopsided pick distribution of any bowl game in the season.  53 people took Utah State (average of 29.4 points, and one whole person took UTEP.  I can only assume that is because of some deeply felt feeling of civic pride for the people of the city of El Paso, Texas that my mother decided to go with UTEP, but now I hope they win.  That would be quite an upset and deeply entertaining.

The picks look like this:

For Utah State:

Brent E. #1: 38

Dave M.: 38

Ray R.: 38

Chad L.: 37

Hutch H. #1: 37

Hutch H. #2: 37

Kevin W.: 37

Mark N. #1: 37

Mark N. #2: 37

Pete J. #1: 37

Pete J. #2: 37

Adam E.: 36

Brent S. #2: 36

Damien R. #2: 36

Hal R. #1: 36

Hal R. #2: 36

Hal R. #3: 36

Mandi A.: 36

Marc R.: 36

Presley J.: 36

Ryan G.: 36

Sarah G.: 36

CBS Hinnen: 35

Becky H.: 34

Matt N.: 34

Mike W.: 34

Brent S. #1: 33

Michelle L. #1: 33

Lance L.: 32

Andrew D.: 31

CBS Fornelli: 31

Mike S.: 31

Ally H.: 30

Daniel D.: 30

Dustin B.: 29

Tim N.: 29

Ben W.: 28

Scott H. #2: 27

Brent E. #2: 26

Amos W.: 25

Brad R.: 25

Klei R.: 25

Dylan B.: 23

Michelle L. #2: 22

Carl B.: 21

Scott H. #1: 20

Jim W.: 19

Damien R. #1: 13

Chad C.: 10

Jay H. #2: 10

Andrew O.: 9

Jay H. #1: 2

Ryan W.: 1

...and for UTEP:

Sally R.: 18

The mean pick is Utah State for 28.5 points, and the median is Utah State for 33.  In Vegas, the line is Utah State -10.5, making it the 2nd highest point spread in the pool.

The later game might be more interesting.  The Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl features Utah vs. Colorado State.  I guess if you are a fan of football in Utah, you've got a real channel-flipping problem this afternoon, since Utah and Utah State are playing at the same time.  I also have no idea what "Royal Purple" is, so I'm just assuming that this bowl game is solely sponsored by a color.

The Vegas line for this game is Utah -3, which makes it more or less a toss up.  You would think that puts it near the bottom of the total points wagered, but because so many games are like this one, it winds up 24th in points, meaning  15 games have fewer points wagered on it.

The picks seem to be pretty evenly split between the two teams.  Here are the breakdowns:

31 people chose Utah (18.52 point average), while 23 chose Colorado State (15.87 point average).

Here are the picks for Utah:

Ray R.: 34

Andrew D.: 29

CBS Fornelli: 29

Adam E.: 28

Matt N.: 28

Scott H. #2: 28

Scott H. #1: 27

CBS Hinnen: 26

Pete J. #1: 25

Pete J. #2: 25

Ally H.: 24

Brent E. #1: 23

Brent E. #2: 23

Mark N. #2: 23

Mike S.: 23

Ryan G.: 22

Dave M.: 20

Kevin W.: 20

Lance L.: 20

Dustin B.: 18

Brent S. #1: 14

Andrew O.: 13

Brent S. #2: 10

Dylan B.: 10

Carl B.: 7

Hutch H. #2: 7

Marc R.: 4

Damien R. #2: 3

Chad C.: 2

Ryan W.: 2

Brad R.: 1

... and here are the picks for Colorado State:

Becky H.: 38

Damien R. #1: 34

Ben W.: 27

Hal R. #1: 26

Hal R. #2: 26

Hal R. #3: 26

Sarah G.: 22

Mandi A.: 21

Sally R.: 19

Amos W.: 17

Tim N.: 17

Daniel D.: 16

Jay H. #2: 15

Klei R.: 13

Chad L.: 11

Michelle L. #1: 9

Michelle L. #2: 6

Jim W.: 5

Mark N. #1: 5

Hutch H. #1: 4

Mike W.: 4

Jay H. #1: 3

Presley J.: 1

The mean pick is Utah for 3.76 points, and the median is Utah for 3 points.

Good luck to everyone!!!!