After 2 games - Hated Duke is still alive edition

Results!!!

UNC Wilmington put up a pretty good effort against Duke, but in the end Duke wound up advancing.  I still hate Grayson Allen.  His game reminds me of James Harden in the NBA.  Shoot threes and draw fouls.  Nothing else.  I guess that's the direction that the game is moving, but it doesn't mean I have to like it.  It goes without saying that I will never like Duke.

In the other game, Butler pulled away at the end.  That means we have 133 people that still have a perfect bracket.  Much to my enjoyment, the Gutless brackets are no longer among them, as Butler was a 9 seed.  Bwahahaha!!!!  Somewhat surprisingly, we have 6 people that have yet to get on the board.  Don't fret folks, there's still about 99% of the pool to go.  We did manage to lose our first Elite 8 team as Presley J. managed to win this ignominious award picking Texas Tech to go that far.  Tough break.  Luckily its early.

For those that are new to this.  For the first weekend, I calculate the ranks based on the points won, with the tiebreaker being the points lost.  So, if you see your score as 1(-3).  That means you won one point, but you have lost a potential of three points (most likely a sweet 16 team).  I will provide a net points ranking later as more games finish.  It doesn't make much sense to do that right now.

Here are the rankings after 2 games:

1. Adam E.: 2 (0)

1. Adam S.: 2 (0)

1. Alex I.: 2 (0)

1. Ally H.: 2 (0)

1. Alyssa B.: 2 (0)

1. Angie Bow.: 2 (0)

1. April K.: 2 (0)

1. Arianna S.: 2 (0)

1. Becky H.: 2 (0)

1. Bella S.: 2 (0)

1. Ben J. #1: 2 (0)

1. Ben J. #3: 2 (0)

1. Brad R. #1: 2 (0)

1. Brad R. #2: 2 (0)

1. Brandon H.: 2 (0)

1. Brent E. #1: 2 (0)

1. Brent E. #2: 2 (0)

1. Brent E. #3: 2 (0)

1. Brent S. #1: 2 (0)

1. Brent S. #2: 2 (0)

1. Brett K. #2: 2 (0)

1. Brett W.: 2 (0)

1. Brian K.: 2 (0)

1. Brian S.: 2 (0)

1. Carin C.: 2 (0)

1. Carl B.: 2 (0)

1. Chad L. #1: 2 (0)

1. Chad L. #3: 2 (0)

1. Chris L. #1: 2 (0)

1. Chris L. #2: 2 (0)

1. Chris M. #4: 2 (0)

1. Chris M. #5: 2 (0)

1. Chris T.: 2 (0)

1. Chun W. #1: 2 (0)

1. Chun W. #2: 2 (0)

1. Chun W. #3: 2 (0)

1. Chun W. #4: 2 (0)

1. Craig G.: 2 (0)

1. Daisy N. #1: 2 (0)

1. Daisy N. #2: 2 (0)

1. Daisy N. #3: 2 (0)

1. Daisy N. #4: 2 (0)

1. Daisy N. #5: 2 (0)

1. Daisy N. #6: 2 (0)

1. Damien R. #3: 2 (0)

1. Dan Du. #1: 2 (0)

1. Dan Du. #2: 2 (0)

1. Dan Dz: 2 (0)

1. Dan S.: 2 (0)

1. Danny H.: 2 (0)

1. Elizabeth N.: 2 (0)

1. Eric R. #1: 2 (0)

1. Eric R. #2: 2 (0)

1. Gary W.: 2 (0)

1. Gigi I.: 2 (0)

1. Harrell R. #1: 2 (0)

1. Harrell R. #2: 2 (0)

1. Harrell R. #3: 2 (0)

1. Harrell R. #4: 2 (0)

1. Howard S. #1: 2 (0)

1. Howard S. #2: 2 (0)

1. Hutch H. #1: 2 (0)

1. Hutch H. #2: 2 (0)

1. Irene H. #2: 2 (0)

1. Irene H. #3: 2 (0)

1. Irene H. #5: 2 (0)

1. Jackson I.: 2 (0)

1. James R.: 2 (0)

1. Jason G. #1: 2 (0)

1. Jay H. #2: 2 (0)

1. Jay H. #3: 2 (0)

1. Jay K.: 2 (0)

1. Jeff S.: 2 (0)

1. Jenny E.: 2 (0)

1. Jim D. #1: 2 (0)

1. Jim D. #2: 2 (0)

1. Jim D. #3: 2 (0)

1. Jim D. #4: 2 (0)

1. Joe K. #3: 2 (0)

1. Joel B. #3: 2 (0)

1. Joel B. #4: 2 (0)

1. Joel B. #5: 2 (0)

1. John B.: 2 (0)

1. John E. #2: 2 (0)

1. John M. #1: 2 (0)

1. John M. #2: 2 (0)

1. Jonathan O.: 2 (0)

1. Julie S.: 2 (0)

1. Kazelli1: 2 (0)

1. Kazelli2: 2 (0)

1. Ken P.: 2 (0)

1. Kirt R.: 2 (0)

1. Klei R. #1: 2 (0)

1. Kye G. #2: 2 (0)

1. Larry G. #1: 2 (0)

1. Larry G. #3: 2 (0)

1. Leslie S.: 2 (0)

1. Lisa M.: 2 (0)

1. Luis B. #1: 2 (0)

1. Luis B. #2: 2 (0)

1. Marissa O.: 2 (0)

1. Mason A. #2: 2 (0)

1. Matt N.: 2 (0)

1. Michelle D.: 2 (0)

1. Michelle L. #2: 2 (0)

1. Michelle L. #3: 2 (0)

1. Michelle L. #4: 2 (0)

1. Michelle R.: 2 (0)

1. Mike C. #1: 2 (0)

1. Mike C. #2: 2 (0)

1. Mindi W.: 2 (0)

1. Missy W. #1: 2 (0)

1. Missy W. #2: 2 (0)

1. Paul W.: 2 (0)

1. Pete J. #2: 2 (0)

1. Pete J. #4: 2 (0)

1. Plsczor Team: 2 (0)

1. Ray W. #3: 2 (0)

1. Ray W. #5: 2 (0)

1. Ray W. #7: 2 (0)

1. Ray W. #8: 2 (0)

1. Roth W.: 2 (0)

1. Ryan W.: 2 (0)

1. Scott H. #1: 2 (0)

1. Stefan K.: 2 (0)

1. Stephanie P. #1: 2 (0)

1. Szecho L. #1: 2 (0)

1. Taran B.: 2 (0)

1. Tim N.: 2 (0)

1. Todd K. #2: 2 (0)

1. Tomas L. #2: 2 (0)

1. William G. #1: 2 (0)

1. William G. #2: 2 (0)

134. Angie B.: 1 (-1)

134. Ava S.: 1 (-1)

134. Ben J. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Ben J. #4: 1 (-1)

134. Bosun S.: 1 (-1)

134. Brent E. #4: 1 (-1)

134. Chad L. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Chad L. #4: 1 (-1)

134. Chris M. #3: 1 (-1)

134. Chrissy I.: 1 (-1)

134. Damien R. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Dennis R.: 1 (-1)

134. Dustin B.: 1 (-1)

134. Dylan B.: 1 (-1)

134. Gutless Kye: 1 (-1)

134. Gutless Missy: 1 (-1)

134. Gutless Ray: 1 (-1)

134. Hutch H. #3: 1 (-1)

134. Irene H. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Irene H. #4: 1 (-1)

134. Jason G. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Jim K.: 1 (-1)

134. Jim W.: 1 (-1)

134. Joe D. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Joe D. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Joe K. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Joel B. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Joel B. #2: 1 (-1)

134. John E. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Jonathan V.: 1 (-1)

134. Josh C.: 1 (-1)

134. Karen C.: 1 (-1)

134. Kazelli3: 1 (-1)

134. Klei R. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Kristina H.: 1 (-1)

134. Larry G. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Marc R.: 1 (-1)

134. Mason A. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Michelle L. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Mike S. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Mike S. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Mike W.: 1 (-1)

134. Pete J. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Pete J. #3: 1 (-1)

134. Ray W. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Ray W. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Ray W. #6: 1 (-1)

134. Ray W. #9: 1 (-1)

134. Rob I. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Rob I. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Ron B.: 1 (-1)

134. Scott H. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Scott K. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Scott K. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Stephanie P. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Steve H.: 1 (-1)

134. Taima B. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Taima B. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Todd K. #3: 1 (-1)

134. Tomas L. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Virginia L. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Virginia L. #2: 1 (-1)

134. Wayne D. #1: 1 (-1)

134. Wayne D. #3: 1 (-1)

198. Brett K. #1: 1 (-3)

198. Chris M. #2: 1 (-3)

198. Damien R. #2: 1 (-3)

205. Jay H. #1: 0 (-2)

205. Jeff D.: 0 (-2)

198. Jeremy C.: 1 (-3)

198. Joe K. #2: 1 (-3)

198. Stan C.: 1 (-3)

207. Chris M. #1: 0 (-4)

207. Szecho L. #2: 0 (-4)

207. Todd K. #1: 0 (-4)

207. Wayne D. #2: 0 (-4)

204. Presley J.: 1 (-7)

There are 2 games currently going on, and another 2 will start pretty soon.  Here's the particulars of the next 2 games:

Baylor / Yale:

Baylor: 158

Yale: 52

I think this was a popular 5/12 game.  As a lot of you know, 5's lose to 12's virtually every year.  This seems like as good a chance as any.  Actually, it is the 12 seed picked most often.  Baylor hasn't done much to inspire confidence over the years, so I guess it should be no surprise.  Here are the picks for the other 12 seeds:  SDSU (30 picks), Chattanooga (21 picks), UALR (37 picks).

The other game is Virginia / Hampton.

Here is the distribution:

Virginia: 208

Hampton: 2 (Jeremy C., Elizabeth N.)

As most of you know, no 16 seed has ever beaten a  1 seed.  This might be a chance though.  Virginia seems to be not so strong of a 1 seed, and if memory serves, Hampton once won a game as a #15 seed.  That would be quite an accomplishment.   We'll see.  I bet it becomes a good time for a nap.  I hope not, but I fear it might be.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!

March Madness - Preview

All right!!!  Games have started and I've managed to enter all the brackets into my master spreadsheet.  We wound up with slightly more than last year.  There are 210 entries, and the fact that I have them all entered in time to watch most of the first game makes me deliriously happy.

Not only that, the first game is Duke / NC Wilmington, and as I told someone earlier this week, the day that Duke loses is probably my 4th favorite day of the tournament.  Plus, I wore my UNC Wilmington T-shirt today (yes, I have a NC Wilmington T-shirt).  Never let it be said that I am a casual college basketball fan.

I am all set up at my brother's place.  I've only got one TV going currently, but that's because I haven't had time to figure out the streaming on the others.  I have my Pizza from the Pizza Port, my donuts from VG's in Cardiff and my Mello Yello.  There's really nothing else I am wanting, except for my Dad to show up around noon today.  After that, everything will be gravy.

There were a few brackets that were filled out incorrectly, but I think I managed to get answers on fixes, so everything is complete.  As a rant, I just want to say that I have to transcribe all of the picks into a master spreadsheet, so when you get cute with your entries by writing in "Cuse" for Syracuse, "Nova" for Villanova or "Zags" for Gonzaga it really slows things down.  I want to point out one totally egregious example.  Never, ever, ever, ever do I want to see "The U" or "U" as a representation for Miami-Florida.  You might as well just write in the mascot for all the good that does me.  If it makes things easier, just assume I'm an idiot that knows nothing about these places.  That would be a good rule of thumb while filling these sheets out.

But wait, the rants aren't over....  I didn't have this issue last year, and I thought I had effectively shamed enough people to keep it from happening again, but I had no less than 3 (THREE!!!) people pick only by the seeds.  These brackets will be scored as Gutless Ray, Gutless Kye and Gutless Missy.  After the initial revealing of the brackets, my favorite time of the tournament is when these cowardly brackets get eliminated.  IT can't happen soon enough for me.  C'mon people, pick at least one upset. VCU over Oregon State, MSU over Virginia.  These are popular choices.  Anything but only by the seeds....

Enough ranting.  Here's some stats for our little group.  Here's the breakdown for the winners:

Kansas (60)

Michigan State (47)

North Carolina (32)

Virginia (12)

Kentucky (11)

Villanova (9)

Oregon (9)

Xavier (5)

Oklahoma (5)

West Virginia (4)

Maryland (3)

Arizona (3)

Texas A&M (2)

Purdue (1)

Vandy / WSU (1)

Indiana (1)

Connecticut (1)

Iowa State (1)

Syracuse (1)

Notre Dame (1)

Texas (1)

I think that more or less aligns with the gambling lines for the tournament.  Looks like Oklahoma and Xavier were a little underrepresented, and with all the turnover at #1 this year, these seem like good value picks.  You'd only be competing with a handful of people.  Something to think about (although it's too late for this year).

Here's the breakdown of the 4 regions:

South Region:

Kansas (138)

Villanova (33)

Maryland (12)

Arizona (9)

California (7)

Miami (6)

Connecticut (4)

Vandy / WSU (1)

West Region:

Oklahoma (91)

Oregon (56)

Texas A&M (33)

Duke (19)

Baylor (5)

Northern Iowa (3)

Texas (3)

East Region:

North Carolina (109)

Kentucky (32)

West Virginia (32)

Xavier (26)

Indiana (6)

Notre Dame (3)

USC (1)

Wisconsin (1)

Midwest Region:

Michigan State (134)

Virginia (42)

Utah (15)

Iowa State (7)

Purdue (5)

Seton Hall (2)

Gonzaga (2)

Syracuse (2)

Dayton (1)

The most popular Championship matchups are:

Kansas & Michigan State (55)

Kansas & North Carolina (27)

Oklahoma & Michigan State (13)

Kansas & Virginia (12)

Kansas & Kentucky (9)

Oregon & Michigan State (8)

Oklahoma & North Carolina (7)

Kansas & Xavier (6)

Villanova & North Carolina (6)

Oklahoma & Kentucky (5)

The most popular final 4 are:

Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State (31)

Kansas, Oregon, North Carolina and Michigan State (14)

Kansas, Texas A&M, North Carolina and Michigan State (8)

Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Virginia (7)

Kansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky and Michigan State (7)

Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Virginia (5)

Kansas, Oklahoma, Xavier and Michigan State (5)

Kansas, Oregon, North Carolina and Virginia (4)

Kansas, Oregon, Kentucky and Michigan State (4)

If you have any of those above, you better hope you do well this opening weekend as these are probably going to be the tiebreakers.

Speaking of which, there are actual games going on.  Here's the breakdown:

Duke / NC Wilmington:

Duke: 188

NC Wilmington: 22  (Go Seahawks!!!)

Butler / Texas Tech

Butler: 149

Texas Tech: 61

This is a little surprising for an 8/9 game, especially since Butler is the 9 seed.  I guess people remember their track record when they went to back to back Championship games.  If memory serves, they went one year from the 8 seed.  Hmmmm.....

Colorado / Connecticut

Connecticut : 133

Colorado: 77

Another 8/9 game, where the 9 is picked more than the 8.  Again, this may be based on history.  Either that, or my old friends from my UTC days live and/or are from Connecticut.

Iowa State / Iona

Iowa State: 169

Iona: 41

As someone who has been burned repeatedly by the Cyclones over the years, I can sympathize with the people that took Iona here.  I also want to comment that this is one of my least favorite games from an administration standpoint.  I like to use autofill on my spreadsheets, and this game made me type more than I wanted.  (Nothing like the potential Texas / Texas A&M 2nd round matchup).  Most people could not care less about this I'm sure.  I am also sure that this is the year that Iowa State makes a deep run since it is the year I abandoned them.

I'll be back later with updated standings.  It looks like the Seahawks are losing, so I need to cheer them on from the comfort of my brothers couch some 2500 miles away.  Go Seahawks!!!!!

March Madness - Intro and Rules

March Madness is here!!!!  I was watching CBS's 2-hour bracket reveal program, and I have to say CBS is dramatically incorrect if they think that people are watching that show to see analysis by Charles Barkley, Seth Davis or anyone else.  Just get to the brackets already!!!!  Luckily, someone was kind enough to leak the entire brackets on Twitter, so I didn't have to subject myself to that 2-hour horror show.

Below you will find the same message I sent out earlier this month.  I changed some stuff, since I was clued in that some of the dates were off the first time and in one of the scenarios, the payouts didn't add up to 100%.  the rest of the information is the same.

Here are few additional notes:

1. If you still actually work at Pratt&Whitney in San Diego, you can drop off sheets and money on Joe Kallio's desk.  He'll be picking it up on Wednesday when we go out for lunch.  So, if you want to enter that way, the deadline is probably going to be about 10:00 on Wednesday morning.

2. I've attached a spreadsheet with this years bracket.  You can use this if you want.  You can send a PDF if you want.  However you want to send me your picks, as long as I get them (along with payment), you are in.

3. There are some people that I owe money to from previous adventures (mostly the Bowl Pool or the Pick 'em League).  Here is a rundown of those people and how much credit you currently have with me:

    - Howard Szeto ($10)

    - Herder family ($20)

    - Dan Stuart ($25)

    - Jonathan Marquez ($25)

    - Harrell Robinson ($25)

    - Jason Garcia ($25)

    - Joe Kallio ($50)

I looked up last years numbers and we had 206 entries, and everything went pretty smoothly.  I'm hoping that is the case again this year.

Here's the rest of the old intro:

For those that are getting into the pool for the first time, let me give you a little introduction.  I’ve been running this pool since 2006, and it has grown every year.  In 2005, I put together a spreadsheet so that I could tell if my entry in a pool had any chance of winning (or what had to happen to keep me from being eliminated).   After that, I figured I could provide that type of information to anyone in a pool, as well as provide some rough probabilities of winning at various stages of the tournament.  Every year, I spend the first Thursday and Friday at my brother’s place in front of 4 screens watching a ton of basketball, eating bad food and scoring all of the entries.  After the opening weekend, I am able to generate preliminary probabilities of getting all of the payouts.  I can also tell if and when entries are eliminated from contention for the various payouts.  It makes it much more interesting than just figuring out who has the most points at any particular time.

 

Changes

 

The pool is more or less the same as last year.  Last year was probably the most stress free pool I have run since I started doing this, so I see no reason to change now.  There is one change, and that will be to the payment methods.  I will try to accept Venmo payments if anyone happens to use Venmo.  More details on that in the "How to pay" section.

 

Tracking Entries

 

As with last year, I am keeping a blog where I am writing all of the information.  This is easier and more convenient for me than e-mail lists, and I've yet to hear any complaints.  There is an icon on the site if you want email updates whenever I post anything if you still like the email notification.  The site is located at: http://kleisports.blogspot.com/.  There is no password required.

 

Who can Enter

 

Basketball fans…  Fans of pools….  Anyone with five bucks…..  Anyone can enter.  Feel free to forward this on to anyone that wants to enter.  All are welcome as long as they follow the instructions laid out here.  You can enter as many times as you want.  There is no limit to the number of entries.

 

How to Enter

 

There are a few ways to enter.  The easiest way is to print out a bracket, fill it out and hand it to me.  That's prohibitively harder where I work now.  My previous workplace is in the process of shutting down, so I'm not sure if I will be making the trip out there to pick up sheets this week, but I will contact some people that are still there to see if that's feasible or not.

 

You can fill out a sheet and send me a scanned version.  You can do this via Yahoo or ESPN, or any other place that allows you to print out brackets.  Make sure that you let me know how you are going to pay for it when you send me the sheet.

 

 

Play-in Games

 

I think this is a hidden value and as these pools get bigger they may make a bigger difference to who wins.  There are 4 play-in games that go off on Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

The NCAA finally submitted to my longtime protests and call these "Play-in" games instead of "1st round" games".  Whatever you call them, if you want to pick one of those teams to advance, you essentially get whoever wins that game.  For instance last year, if you liked Boise State to advance to the Sweet 16, you still got points for Dayton advancing because Dayton beat Boise State in the play-in game.  I think that at least one team from the play-in game has made the Sweet 16 the last 5 years and VCU made it to the Final 4 as a play-in winner.  That’s a lot of points to leave on the table.

 

Tiebreaker

 

I never like deciding places via a tiebreaker, but sometimes 63 games aren’t enough to determine who gets what, so I need one.  The tiebreaker is the total points scored in the championship game.  The winner of the tiebreaker is the entry that is closest to the actual number of points, regardless of whether or not it is higher or lower.

 

How to pay

 

The cost is $5 per entry.  There are no volume discounts or anything like that.

 

There are a few ways to pay, but I’ll accept most types of payment except for PayPal.  I had everyone use that a few years back and it got flagged for “suspicious activity”.  That seems so strange since I never use my Paypal account except for about a week where I would receive a ton of activity in $5 increments.  Anyway, I don’t use PayPal since I don’t want my account frozen.

 

I will however accept Venmo, as they haven't barred me yet.  The email address there is b_nittmo@yahoo.com.

 

You can pay in cash.  As I mentioned earlier, I may or may not be heading back to my old job to pick up brackets.  If it turns out that I am, we will coordinate the cash pick up then.

 

If you want to mail me payments or set up a payment from your bank, here’s my address (Note: It is different from last year):

 

Klei Richards

1882 Black Mustard Ln.

Carlsbad, CA 92011

I personally prefer if you set me up as a payee if you use on-line banking.  The bank consolidates all the checks that I get that way.  It makes it slightly easier for me.

 

As I mentioned above, you MUST send me an email with your entry and how you intend to pay for it.

 

Deadlines

 

The deadline for entry is tip off of the first game on Thursday, March 17th.  Brackets will be released on Sunday, March 13^th.  I am very strict about this deadline.  I WILL NOT accept entries after tipoff of the first game.  It's one of the most stressful times running this pool, and the last thing I want to do is argue about whether someone submitted picks on time or not.  If I don't have picks by tip off, you are not getting in.

 

Scoring

 

The scoring is the same as it’s been in years past.  There will be 32 points available in each round for a total of 192 points in all.  That means that every game you get right on the opening Thursday and Friday will be worth 1 point, every game on the opening Saturday and Sunday will be worth 2 pts.  It also means that picking the Champion gets you 32 points.  With a pool as big as mine has turned into, you almost certainly need to get the winner right to have any chance at the money.

 

Payouts

 

Last year, I paid out 4 places.  I said that if I managed to get 250 entries, I would pay out 5 places.  I pay out everything that I take in, so this whole escapade is charity work on my behalf.  If I pay out 4 places, the breakdown will be: 1^st – 50%, 2^nd – 25%, 3^rd – 15%, 4^th – 10%.  If it turns out to be 5 places, the breakdown will be: 1^st – 45%, 2^nd – 25%, 3^rd – 15%, 4^th – 10%, 5^th – 5%.  I won’t know what the actual dollar amounts will be until I know how many entries I have.

 

I think that more or less covers everything.  If you’ve read all the way through this, congratulations!!!  It’s a bit of a long-winded message, but there’s a lot of information in there that people have asked about in the past as well as things that have caused me grief before.  I hope everyone can join.  It promises to be a fun tournament.  I’ll be hoping for a ton of upsets.  That always makes for a fun tournament.  I don’t like it as much when all the higher seeds win.  I actively discourage people from entering a bracket only by the seeds.  My favorite day of the tournament is selection Sunday, and my second favorite day is the day all gutless brackets are mathematically eliminated from any money.  I really can’t stand those types of picks.

 

Good luck to everyone!!!!

 

 

Klei