March Madness 2025 - First 4 game preview

Welcome to the 2025 March Madness pool.  As of now, I am saying we have 272 entries.  That’s about the same number as we had last year.  Last year, I payed out $25 to the people that had the most points in each of the 4 regions.  I really liked that last year, so I am making the payout $50 per region.  It’s a little something to make things interesting.

Here’s the breakdown for the first 4 games.

Game 1:

Picks for Louisville: 142

Picks for Creighton: 130

Vegas Line: Louisville -2.5

Some people know this, but I’ve been keeping a spreadsheet all season that has the scores of every game in it, as well as the point spread and the over/under.  As part of that, I have a ranking system that I update daily.  It’s a whole thing.  Anyway, according to my ranking, Louisville was my #5 ranked team.  I was super excited to pick them to go pretty far in the tournament, since I figured they’d be a 3 seed.  Imagine my surprise when I saw they were an 8-seed and they would be playing my #2 team in the second round – assuming they won.

My only saving grace on that is that Louisville is currently getting crushed.  Creighton doesn’t seem to be able to miss from 3-point range.  I’m not sure why the announcers mentioned this piece of trivia, but in NCAA tournament history, teams that had a 15 point lead in the second half are something like 245-1.  They said this as Creighton went over the 15-point spread mark.  I guess they really want people to turn the channel.

Also, all the people that were worried about Louisville playing in Lexington can shut up.  It doesn’t seem to be helping.

 

Game 2:

Picks for Purdue: 231

Picks for High Point: 41

Vegas Line: Purdue -7.5

Another thing people may or may not know about me is that I have a t-shirt for about 340 of the 365 D1 college basketball teams.  Every year, I pick shirt to wear based on what upsets I want to see.  Today, I am wearing my High Point t-shirt.  They are going to have to pick it up if they want to pull the upset as they are down about 10 right now.

Purdue is a team that had a terrible track record in the tournament prior to last year.  There are a few teams that I really don’t count on in the tournament.  Purdue is one of them.  Tennessee  is another.  Georgetown and Baylor tend to really underperform – with some notable exceptions.  Anyway, Purdue is very much overlooked this season.  I think people just assumed they’d be lousy without Zach Edey. 

I had High Point ranked 45^th, so I thought they should have been an 11 seed.  I had Purdue ranked 35^th, so this really seemed like a good upset pick.  There’s still time.  Go High Point!!!!!

 

Game 3:

Picks for Wisconsin: 260

Picks for Montana: 12

Vegas Line: Wisconsin -17

Does anyone care about this game?  I’ve heard very little about it.  Almost no one thinks Montana can win it.  That means it’s probably the game that will end in an upset.  That would be fun.  I honestly didn’t even think Montana was the best team in the Big Sky conference.  That’s right, I’m going deep on my knowledge of the Big Sky conference.  I had Northern Colorado as the best team, but this is where I get on my soap box about why small and mid-major conferences should not send the tournament winner to the NCAAs.  If you want the best representative for the conference, don’t send a team that got hot for 3 days vs a team that has been consistently good for 3+ months.  I never understood that logic.  Sure, hold a tournament, but don’t make the auto-bid dependent on it.

That being said, I had Montana ranked #98 and Northern Colorado ranked #89, so this was all pretext to rail against conference tournaments.  Still – go Grizz!!!!

 

Game 4:

Picks for Houston: 272

Picks for SIU-Edwardsville: 0

Vegas Line: Houston -29

Prior to Sunday, how many of you even knew there was a team called SIU-Edwardsville?  How many of you know what the SIU stands for?  They are a first time entrant to the tournament.  SIU stands for Southern Illinois University.  There is already a Southern Illinois University, so they added the Edwardsville designation.  Fun fact, both of these mascots are Cougars.  So we are going to witness some Cougar on Cougar violence.

I don’t expect this game to be close.  Apparently, neither does anyone else.  0 picks is not inspiring.  Then again, my best advice that I give is to NOT pick a #16 seed or a #15 seed to win.  The cost / benefit analysis is not good for that type of pick.  Maybe people are finally figuring that out.

I’ll back later with more stats.  I have some basketball to watch!!!!

March Madness - Final total

 Everyone.  The first game is almost half over, so I'm more or less done entereing brackets.

There are still a few that need to be corrected:

Alex I.

Brandon B. #1

Dennis R. #1

Laura Muc

Mark Sp #2

Here is the complete list:

Adalyn H.

Adam Elm

Adam S. #1

Adam S. #2

Alex I.

Ally H.

Alysimoso B.

Amber Dolly

Andrew D. #1

Andrew D. #2

Andrew D. #3

Andrew D. #4

Andrew D. #5

Andrew S.

Andrew Spr

April Koh

Beau H.

Becky H.

Ben Silv

Billy E.

Brad E.

Brad R.

Brandie H.

Brandon B. #1

Brandon B. #2

Brandon B. #3

Brandon H. #1

Brandon H. #2

Brayden R.

Brent E. #1

Brent E. #2

Brent E. #3

Brent E. #4

Brent E. #5

Brent E. #6

Brent E. #7

Brent E. #8

Brent Sw.

Brett K. #1

Brett K. #2

Brett K. #3

Brian Ker

Bryan K.

Bryce O.

Bryce S.

CAAT #1

CAAT #2

CAAT #3

CAAT #4

Carl B.

Carolyn

Charlotte N

Chris Elm

Chris L. #1

Chris L. #2

Chris L. #3

Chris L. #4

Chris M

Chris T.

Chrissy S.

Cicely Koh

Colston W.

COOL GUY

Craig Ger

Daisy N. #1

Daisy N. #10

Daisy N. #11

Daisy N. #2

Daisy N. #3

Daisy N. #4

Daisy N. #5

Daisy N. #6

Daisy N. #7

Daisy N. #8

Daisy N. #9

Damien R. #1

Damien R. #2

Dan Dz.

Dan McK #1

Dan McK #2

Daniel E.

Danielle A. #1

Danielle A. #2

Dave A.

Dawn Tr

Def Eff

Dennis R. #1

Dennis R. #2

Derek H.

Dianna A.

Dirk F.

Doobie1

Doobie2

Doug H.

Dustin B.

Dylan B.

Elizabeth N. #1

Elizabeth N. #2

Elizabeth N. #3

Elliot N.

Ely A.

Eric V.

Erica H.

Erin Muc

Faye N.

Flagg Day

Gary W.

Gigi I.

Green Machine

Greg Ru

Harrell #1

Harrell #2

Harrell #3

Harrell #4

Harrell #5

Harrell #6

Hero R. - Cats Only

Howard S. #1

Howard S. #2

Hutch H. #1

Hutch H. #2

Irene H. #1

Irene H. #10

Irene H. #2

Irene H. #3

Irene H. #4

Irene H. #5

Irene H. #6

Irene H. #7

Irene H. #8

Irene H. #9

Jace D.

Jackson I.

Jacob A #2

Jacob A. #1

Jared Bock

Jason S.

Jaxon S.

Jay H. #1

Jay H. #2

Jeff W.

Jim Ten

Jim W.

Jo Jo D.

John Erick

John Lea

John Mack #1

John Mack #2

Jon Fen

Jon L.

Josiah Tr

Karen C.

Ken Pom

Kiah H.

Kirt R. #1

Kirt R. #2

Klei R CR

Klei R US

Klei R. #1

Klei R. #2 - Upset Special

Kyle V.

Kylee Tr

Larry G. #1

Larry G. #2

Larry G. #3

Laura Muc

Leighton N.

Linvansanity

Lucid Dreams

Luis B. #1

Luis B. #2

Luis B. #3

Luis B. #4

Luis B. #5

Mario Muc

Mark Bar

Mark Sp #1

Mark Sp #2

Mark Sp #3

Mark Sp #4

Marshmallow

Mary Lou H.

Matt H.

Matt Mei

Matt N. #4

Max70 #1

Max70 #2

Michael Vill #1

Michael Vill #2

Michael Vill #3

Michelle L. #1

Michelle L. #2

Michelle L. #3

Michelle L. #4

Michelle L. #5

Michelle R.

Mike Bar

Mike Lu #1

Mike Lu #2

Mike Lu #3

Mike Lu #4

Mike Lu #5

Mike Nie

Mike San

Missy W.

Mustard

My Sister is Skibidy

Nick Vos

Niren D.

Noah N.

Off Eff

Otis L.

Paint It Black and Gold

Pat Forde - SI

Pat K.

Paul K. #1

Paul K. #2

Paul K. #3

Paul K. #4

Pete J. #1

Pete J. #2

Pete J. #3

Pete J. #4

Pete J. #5

Pete J. #6

PV

Ray Min

Regina L.

Reid D.

Rich F.

Rob I. #1

Rob I. #2

Roth W.

Ryan Gar

Ryan W.

Sacrificial Gutless Bracket

Sam MG #1

Sam MG #2

Scarlett H.

Scott H. #1

Scott H. #2

Scott Koh #1

Scott Koh #2

Seth Davis

Shawn D.

Stan Ch.

Stefon K.

Stephen C.

Steve Muc #1

Steve Muc #2

Steve Muc #3

Steve Muc #4

Steve Muc #5

Szecho L #1

Szecho L #2

Thomas Val

Tim Dz #1

Tim Dz #2

Tim Dz #3

Tim N.

Tina H.

TJ Val

Tucker D.

Tyler C.

Valerie D.

WaPo

Wayne D. #1

Wayne D. #2

Wayne D. #3

Wayne D. #4

Zachary V.

Zoe W.

That makes 272.  I may add one more3 because someone sent in thier 2024 bracket, instead of thier 2025 bracket.  I'll have more updates shortly.

If you think you should be in, and don't see your bracket, let me know.  It might be under a different name or maybe it got caught by some kind of email filter.

If you are in - good luck!!!!

Entries after Day 3

 I have only myself to blame.  I could've gottne started entering these brackets earlier, but I watched the Texas / Xavire game in it's entirety.  In my defense, it was a very good game.  Please find the list of the brackets that I have entered so far.  The deadline is tipoff tomorrow at around 9:00 PST / 12:00 EST.

Also, some of you entered brackets that had mistakes or missing picks.  Here is a list of the people that have brackets that need to be corrected:

Andrew S.

Dennis R. #1

Laura Muc

Mark Sp #2

Matt N. #4

Tim Dz #3

Here is the total list:

Adalyn H.

Adam Elm

Adam S. #1

Adam S. #2

Ally H.

Alysimoso B.

Amber Dolly

Andrew D. #1

Andrew D. #2

Andrew D. #3

Andrew D. #4

Andrew S.

April Koh

Beau H.

Becky H.

Ben Silv

Brad R.

Brandon H. #1

Brandon H. #2

Brayden R.

Brent E. #1

Brent E. #2

Brent E. #3

Brent E. #4

Brent E. #5

Brent E. #6

Brent E. #7

Brent E. #8

Brent Sw.

Brett K. #1

Brett K. #2

Brett K. #3

Brian Ker

Carolyn

Charlotte N

Chris Elm

Chris L. #1

Chris L. #2

Chris L. #3

Chris L. #4

Chris M

Chris T.

Cicely Koh

COOL GUY

Craig Ger

Damien R. #1

Damien R. #2

Daniel E.

Dave A.

Def Eff

Dennis R. #1

Dennis R. #2

Derek H.

Dianna A.

Dirk F.

Doobie1

Doobie2

Doug H.

Dustin B.

Dylan B.

Elizabeth N. #1

Elizabeth N. #2

Elizabeth N. #3

Elliot N.

Ely A.

Erin Muc

Faye N.

Flagg Day

Green Machine

Greg Ru

Hero R. - Cats Only

Howard S. #1

Howard S. #2

Jace D.

Jacob A #2

Jacob A. #1

Jared Bock

Jason S.

Jaxon S.

Jay H. #1

Jay H. #2

Jeff W.

Jim Ten

Jim W.

Jo Jo D.

John Erick

John Lea

John Mack #1

John Mack #2

Jon Fen

Karen C.

Ken Pom

Kiah H.

Kirt R. #1

Kirt R. #2

Klei R CR

Klei R US

Klei R. #1

Klei R. #2 - Upset Special

Larry G. #1

Larry G. #2

Larry G. #3

Laura Muc

Leighton N.

Linvansanity

Lucid Dreams

Mario Muc

Mark Sp #1

Mark Sp #2

Mark Sp #3

Mark Sp #4

Marshmallow

Mary Lou H.

Matt H.

Matt Mei

Matt N. #4

Max70 #1

Max70 #2

Michael Vill #1

Michael Vill #2

Michael Vill #3

Michelle L. #1

Michelle L. #2

Michelle L. #3

Michelle L. #4

Michelle L. #5

Michelle R.

Mike Bar

Mike Lu #1

Mike Lu #2

Mike Lu #3

Mike Lu #4

Mike Lu #5

Mike Nie

Mike San

Missy W.

Mustard

My Sister is Skibidy

Nick Vos

Niren D.

Noah N.

Off Eff

Paint It Black and Gold

Pat Forde - SI

Pat K.

Paul K. #1

Paul K. #2

Paul K. #3

Paul K. #4

Pete J. #1

Pete J. #2

Pete J. #3

Pete J. #4

Pete J. #5

Pete J. #6

PV

Ray Min

Regina L.

Reid D.

Rich F.

Sacrificial Gutless Bracket

Sam MG #1

Sam MG #2

Scarlett H.

Scott H. #1

Scott H. #2

Scott Koh #1

Scott Koh #2

Seth Davis

Shawn D.

Stan Ch.

Stefon K.

Stephen C.

Steve Muc #1

Steve Muc #2

Steve Muc #3

Steve Muc #4

Steve Muc #5

Szecho L #1

Szecho L #2

Thomas Val

Tim Dz #1

Tim Dz #2

Tim Dz #3

Tim N.

Tina H.

TJ Val

Tucker D.

Tyler C.

Valerie D.

WaPo

Wayne D. #1

Wayne D. #2

Wayne D. #3

Wayne D. #4

Zoe W.

I'll save you the time counting and just say that we have 196 entries so far.  If we are going to get as many as last year, I am going to have a busy morning tomorrow.  Who am I kidding.  I was always going to have a busy morning tomorrow.  I need to pick up donuts and drive down to my brother's place.  Should be fun!!!!

Entries after Day 2

 Well, that SDSU game was truly horrible.  I guess North Carolina cooled off in the second half to wind up only shooting 58% from 3 point range.  It is virtually impossible to shoot that good and lose - to any team.  Yikes.

This year I decided that if you named your bracket something wierd, I was just going to leave that.  I used to not do that because it made it harder to track people down if I needed to contact them for something like a tie-breaker.  I decided it's really not that hard to figure that out, so let the strange bracket names reign!!!

Here's who is in so far:

Adam Elm

Adam S. #1

Adam S. #2

April Koh

Brad R.

Brent E. #1

Brent E. #2

Brent E. #3

Brent E. #4

Brent E. #5

Brent E. #6

Brent E. #7

Brent E. #8

Brent Sw.

Brian Ker

Carolyn

Chris Elm

Chris T.

Cicely Koh

Craig Ger

Damien R. #1

Damien R. #2

Daniel E.

Dave A.

Def Eff

Dirk F.

Doobie1

Doobie2

Dustin B.

Erin Muc

Flagg Day

Green Machine

Greg Ru

Howard S. #1

Howard S. #2

John Erick

Karen C.

Ken Pom

Kirt R. #1

Kirt R. #2

Klei R CR

Klei R US

Klei R. #1

Larry G. #1

Larry G. #2

Larry G. #3

Lucid Dreams

Mario Muc

Mark Sp

Mike Bar

Mike Nie

Mike San

My Sister is Skibidy

Off Eff

Pat K.

Paul K. #1

Paul K. #2

Paul K. #3

Paul K. #4

Pete J. #1

Pete J. #2

Pete J. #3

Pete J. #4

Pete J. #5

Pete J. #6

PV

Ray Min

Rich F.

Sacrificial Gutless Bracket

Scott Koh #1

Scott Koh #2

Stefon K.

Stephen C.

Szecho L #1

Szecho L #2

Valerie D.

That makes 76 so far.  There's still a day and a half to go.  I think we are slightly behind last years pace, but we will see.

I replied to everyone that sent mre brackets, so if you didn't get an email from me or don't see your name above and you sent me something, let me know.

Entries after 1st Day

 Here are all the entries I officially have in the pool so far.

If you sent me picks, and don't see your name here, let me know:

Adam S. #1

Adam S. #2

Brent Sw.

Chris T.

Craig Ger

Def Eff

Dirk F.

Doobie1

Doobie2

Erin Muc

Greg Ru

Ken Pom

Kirt R. #1

Kirt R. #2

Klei R CR

Klei R US

Klei R. #1

Larry G. #1

Larry G. #2

Mario Muc

Mark Sp

Off Eff

Paul K. #1

Paul K. #2

Paul K. #3

Paul K. #4

Sacrificial Gutless Bracket

Szecho L #1

Szecho L #2

That's up to 29 so far.  Still plenty of time to get in as play-in games start tomorrow.

Entries After 1st day

 Here's the entries that I have so far.  Most of them are ones that I entered myself, but I think we are off to a good start:

Adam S. #1

Adam S. #2

Def Eff

Ken Pom

Kirt R. #1

Kirt R. #2

Klei R CR

Klei R US

Klei R. #1

Off Eff

Paul K. #1

Paul K. #2

Paul K. #3

Paul K. #4

Sacrificial Gutless Bracket

March Madness 2025 Intro Information

 Hello again everyone.  It’s March again, so that means another March Madness tournament.  I more or less recycle these intros every year, but I’m changing some stuff this year, so read through.  I’m hoping to keep the tournament a little more interesting for a few more people.

For those that forgot about last year, Connecticut went back-to-back.  I kind of doubt they will go 3 for 3.  As of right now, I am not 100% certain they are even going to make the tournament.  They probably will though because somehow, the committee will want to draw a big TV audience.  That’s why teams like Connecticut, North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio State will probably make it in despite not having resumes that warrant it and teams like North Texas, UC Irvine and George Mason probably won’t.

I managed to win the pool last year, but not through any great insight.  I essentially stole a ranking from one of the on-line analysts.  I strictly went by KenPom.com’s ranking of teams by offensive efficiency.  I guess last year was a good year to be offensively efficient.  Feel free to do the same this year.  I doubt it will work 2 years in a row – although I will also be trying that, so picka good tie-breaker if you do.

Also last year, I started giving out prizes for people getting the most points in a given region.  That let me do eliminations from the first game on.  That’s kind of fun and keeps more people alive for longer.  I’ll be doing that again this year.

For those that are getting into the pool for the first time, let me give you a little introduction.  I’ve been running this pool since 2006.  In 2005, I put together a spreadsheet so that I could tell if my entry in a pool had any chance of winning (or what had to happen to keep me from being eliminated).   After that, I figured I could provide that type of information to anyone in a pool, as well as provide some rough probabilities of winning at various stages of the tournament.  Every year, I spend the first Thursday and Friday at my brother’s place in front of 4 screens watching a ton of basketball, eating bad food and scoring all the entries.  After the opening weekend, I can generate preliminary probabilities of getting all of the payouts.  I can also tell if and when entries are eliminated from contention for the various payouts.  It makes it much more interesting than just figuring out who has the most points at any time.

Tracking Entries

I continue to keep a blog to post commentary, standings updates and potential eliminations.  There is an icon on the site if you want email updates whenever I post anything if you want an email notification.  The site is located at: http://kleisports.blogspot.com/.  There is no password required.

Who can Enter

Basketball fans…  Fans of pools….  Anyone with five bucks…..  Anyone can enter.  Feel free to forward this on to anyone that wants to enter.  All are welcome as long as they follow the instructions laid out here.  You can enter as many times as you want.  There is no limit to the number of entries.

How to Enter

There are a few ways to enter.  I will send out a spreadsheet that has the bracket in it once the brackets are released.  I have to put everyone’s picks into one master spreadsheet for scoring purposes, and the spreadsheet I send out automatically formats the picks in a way that means I can just copy and paste it.  That’s the most convenient way for me, but I’ll accept entries however you can get them to me.

You can fill out a sheet and send me a scanned version.  You can do this via Yahoo or ESPN, or any other place that allows you to print out brackets.  You can send me a picture of your completed bracket.  You can write out your picks in some kind of column format.  So long as I can decipher what you did, you should be good.  My only request is this….  If you aren’t using the spreadsheet that I send out, don’t get cute with the names when filling out a bracket.  I have to transcribe the picks, so when someone puts “Zags” or “Cuse” for Gonzaga or Syracuse I have to break my rhythm to figure out what those teams are.  Also, don’t just put in the seed numbers.  That’s the worst.

Also, don’t forget to let me know how you are paying when you enter.  That will allow me to match up what’s coming in on the money side with what is coming in on the pick side.

Play-in Games

I think this is a hidden value and as these pools get bigger they may make a bigger difference to who wins.  There are 4 play-in games that go off on Thursday.

The NCAA finally succumbed a few years ago and stopped calling them “1^st round games”.  Whatever you call them, if you want to pick one of those teams to advance, you essentially get whoever wins that game.  For instance, last year, if you liked Rutgers to advance to the Sweet 16, you still got points for Notre Dame advancing because Notre Dame beat Rutgers in the play-in game.  I think that at least one team from the play-in game makes the Sweet 16 most years and VCU made it to the Final 4 as a play-in winner.  That’s a lot of points to leave on the table.

Tiebreaker

I never like deciding places via a tiebreaker, but sometimes 63 games aren’t enough to determine who gets what, so I need one.  The tiebreaker is the total points scored in the championship game.  The winner of the tiebreaker is the entry that is closest to the actual number of points, regardless of whether or not it is higher or lower.  I’ll know pretty early on if we are going to need this or not.  I will reach out to you if it looks like you need a tie-breaker and don’t have one.

How to pay

The cost is $5 per entry.  There are no volume discounts or anything like that.

PayPal: bj_nittmo@yahoo.com  

Venmo seems to work great.  My address is bj_nittmo@yahoo.com or b_nittmo@yahoo.com or just @Klei-Richards  They both link to the same account.

If you want to use Zelle, my address is: kleiarichards@gmail.com

You can pay in cash. Cash always works.

If you want to mail me payments or set up a payment from your bank, here’s my address:

Klei Richards

1882 Black Mustard Lane

Carlsbad, CA 92011

Any of these options work.  I honestly don’t have a preference as to which one you use..

As I mentioned above, you MUST send me an email with your entry and how you intend to pay for it.

Deadlines

The deadline for entry is tip off of the first game on Thursday, March 20th.  Brackets will be released on Sunday, March 16th. 

Scoring

The scoring is the same as it’s been in years past.  There will be 32 points available in each round for a total of 192 points in all.  That means that every game you get right on the opening Thursday and Friday will be worth 1 point, every game on the opening Saturday and Sunday will be worth 2 pts.  It also means that picking the Champion gets you 32 points.  With a pool as big as mine has turned into, you almost certainly need to get the winner right to have any chance at the money.

Payouts

Last year, I paid out 5 places.  If I manage to get 250 entries again, I will pay out 5 places.  If I somehow get 400 entries (extremely unlikely – but who knows), I’ll pay put 6 spots.  I pay out everything that I take in, so this whole escapade is charity work on my behalf. 

If I pay out 4 places, the breakdown will be: 1^st – 50%, 2^nd – 25%, 3^rd – 15%, 4^th – 10%.  If it turns out to be 5 places, the breakdown will be: 1^st – 45%, 2^nd – 25%, 3^rd – 15%, 4^th – 10%, 5^th – 5%.  I won’t know what the actual dollar amounts will be until I know how many entries I have.

I think that more or less covers everything.  If you’ve read all the way through this, congratulations!!!  It’s a bit of a long-winded message, but there’s a lot of information in there that people have asked about in the past as well as things that have caused me grief in the past.  I hope everyone can join.  It promises to be a fun tournament.  I’ll be hoping for a ton of upsets.  I don’t like it so much when all the higher seeds win.  I actively discourage people from entering a bracket only by the seeds.  My favorite day of the tournament is selection Sunday, and my second favorite day is the day all gutless brackets are mathematically eliminated from any money.  I really can’t stand those types of picks.

Good luck to everyone!!!!

 Klei