March Madness 2025 - First 4 game preview

Welcome to the 2025 March Madness pool.  As of now, I am saying we have 272 entries.  That’s about the same number as we had last year.  Last year, I payed out $25 to the people that had the most points in each of the 4 regions.  I really liked that last year, so I am making the payout $50 per region.  It’s a little something to make things interesting.

Here’s the breakdown for the first 4 games.

Game 1:

Picks for Louisville: 142

Picks for Creighton: 130

Vegas Line: Louisville -2.5

Some people know this, but I’ve been keeping a spreadsheet all season that has the scores of every game in it, as well as the point spread and the over/under.  As part of that, I have a ranking system that I update daily.  It’s a whole thing.  Anyway, according to my ranking, Louisville was my #5 ranked team.  I was super excited to pick them to go pretty far in the tournament, since I figured they’d be a 3 seed.  Imagine my surprise when I saw they were an 8-seed and they would be playing my #2 team in the second round – assuming they won.

My only saving grace on that is that Louisville is currently getting crushed.  Creighton doesn’t seem to be able to miss from 3-point range.  I’m not sure why the announcers mentioned this piece of trivia, but in NCAA tournament history, teams that had a 15 point lead in the second half are something like 245-1.  They said this as Creighton went over the 15-point spread mark.  I guess they really want people to turn the channel.

Also, all the people that were worried about Louisville playing in Lexington can shut up.  It doesn’t seem to be helping.

 

Game 2:

Picks for Purdue: 231

Picks for High Point: 41

Vegas Line: Purdue -7.5

Another thing people may or may not know about me is that I have a t-shirt for about 340 of the 365 D1 college basketball teams.  Every year, I pick shirt to wear based on what upsets I want to see.  Today, I am wearing my High Point t-shirt.  They are going to have to pick it up if they want to pull the upset as they are down about 10 right now.

Purdue is a team that had a terrible track record in the tournament prior to last year.  There are a few teams that I really don’t count on in the tournament.  Purdue is one of them.  Tennessee  is another.  Georgetown and Baylor tend to really underperform – with some notable exceptions.  Anyway, Purdue is very much overlooked this season.  I think people just assumed they’d be lousy without Zach Edey. 

I had High Point ranked 45^th, so I thought they should have been an 11 seed.  I had Purdue ranked 35^th, so this really seemed like a good upset pick.  There’s still time.  Go High Point!!!!!

 

Game 3:

Picks for Wisconsin: 260

Picks for Montana: 12

Vegas Line: Wisconsin -17

Does anyone care about this game?  I’ve heard very little about it.  Almost no one thinks Montana can win it.  That means it’s probably the game that will end in an upset.  That would be fun.  I honestly didn’t even think Montana was the best team in the Big Sky conference.  That’s right, I’m going deep on my knowledge of the Big Sky conference.  I had Northern Colorado as the best team, but this is where I get on my soap box about why small and mid-major conferences should not send the tournament winner to the NCAAs.  If you want the best representative for the conference, don’t send a team that got hot for 3 days vs a team that has been consistently good for 3+ months.  I never understood that logic.  Sure, hold a tournament, but don’t make the auto-bid dependent on it.

That being said, I had Montana ranked #98 and Northern Colorado ranked #89, so this was all pretext to rail against conference tournaments.  Still – go Grizz!!!!

 

Game 4:

Picks for Houston: 272

Picks for SIU-Edwardsville: 0

Vegas Line: Houston -29

Prior to Sunday, how many of you even knew there was a team called SIU-Edwardsville?  How many of you know what the SIU stands for?  They are a first time entrant to the tournament.  SIU stands for Southern Illinois University.  There is already a Southern Illinois University, so they added the Edwardsville designation.  Fun fact, both of these mascots are Cougars.  So we are going to witness some Cougar on Cougar violence.

I don’t expect this game to be close.  Apparently, neither does anyone else.  0 picks is not inspiring.  Then again, my best advice that I give is to NOT pick a #16 seed or a #15 seed to win.  The cost / benefit analysis is not good for that type of pick.  Maybe people are finally figuring that out.

I’ll back later with more stats.  I have some basketball to watch!!!!