NCAA pool - Largest blowout in Final 4 history edition

Good morning everyone.  I attended the Final 4 in Houston last night, and I went in with a real chance to win my own pool.  Sadly, that chance was dashed pretty quickly as Oklahoma suffered the biggest single loss in Final 4 history.  I had some hope with the score 17-16 Oklahoma, but in short order, it was 26-17 Villanova, and it was never closer than that.  My wife and I decided to go get an early dinner with about 6 minutes left to go in the game, since it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that Villanova was going to win.

The second game was a little closer, but only because the first game was such a blowout.  North Carolina slowly built a 10 point lead and more or less maintained it for the entire second half.  That makes the Finals, Villanova vs. North Carolina.

A grand total of 6 people managed to get the final 2 write.  Of those 6 people, only 1 (Irene H. #4) is not alive for one of the four payout positions, as she was knocked out way back with the Oregon loss to Oklahoma in the Elite 8.

Here are the eliminations for the two games:

For Oklahoma:

Adam E.  (3rd)

Alex I.  (4th)

Craig G.  (3rd)

Irene H. #1  (2nd, 4th)

James R.  (2nd, 3rd)

Julie S.  (1st, 4th)

Klei R. #1  (1st, 2nd)

Mike C. #2  (4th)

Mike W.  (4th)

For Syracuse:

Adam S.  (2nd)

Brian K.  (4th)

Daisy N. #4  (2nd, 4th)

Daisy N. #5  (1st)

Jim D. #2  (4th)

Jonathan O.  (3rd)

Missy W. #1  (1st)

That leaves us with only two possible outcomes, it also guarantees that after a great run, Daisy is not going to repeat as Champion.

Here are the only outcomes possible:

If North Carolina wins:

1st:  Adam S.

2nd:  Jeff D.

3rd:  Klei R. #1

4th:  Michelle R.

If Villanova wins:

1st:  Jonathan O.

2nd:  Winner of tie-breaker between Dan Dz. and Missy W. #1

3rd:  Loser of tie-breaker between Dan Dz. and Missy W. #1

4th:  Howard S. #2

Some interesting notes:

I don't think that Adam was on my original e-mail distribution about the pool, since we used to work together at my old job and all I had was his old e-mail address.  Luckily, he got a hold of the introductory e-mail and was able to enter.  I think a lost a lot of people because of my old company shuttering, so thanks to Adam for making a little extra effort to make sure to get in this year.

Jonathan O. was one of my favorite entrants last year, as he had some whacky brackets that somehow managed to stay alive for much longer than I would have thought possible.  This year, I think that he must have figured something out, since he's one of the last 2 alive for first.  I just want to point out to anyone that uses "I don't know anything about college basketball" as an excuse, that Jonathan O. is someone you need to talk to.  Jonathan O. is from Spain, and only got in because he is married to a friend of mine.  My understanding is that he may know about the NBA, but not so much about NCAA basketball.  Yet, here he is, on the verge of winning this pool.  I think this proves that with the seeding that the NCAA has, you can make a somewhat intelligent guess and maybe win.  Plus, it takes a lot of luck to win this pool.  Everyone who wins has to have about 7-8 games break your way.  That's why it's so hard to do, and also why "experts" have such a hard time doing well.

One more thing that is interesting, but not really a trend that I love is that the two potential winners both submitted only one bracket.  That's going to be a maximum amount of return on a small investment.

I heard from a number of people that I had listed as not having paid.  Here's the list of those I have NOT heard from yet:

Alex I.

Chrissy I.

Dave M.

Gary W.

Gigi I.

Jackson I.

Kansas C. #1

Kansas C. #2

Presley J.

Rob I. #1

Rob I. #2

Roth W.

Taran B.

Please remedy that ASAP.

How much the payouts will be will depend on how many people stiff me, so I'm not 100% on the payouts, but it will be 50/25/15/10 depending on how much the final count is.

Good luck to everyone still alive - and go Tar Heels!!!!!

NCAA - pre-final 4 edition.

I apologize for those that were waiting for an update after last night's games.  I was spending Easter with my family, so I decided that I would wait until today to write something up.  Besides, nothing can really happen between now and next Saturday anyway.

The biggest surprise of the night came from Syracuse, who I still claim shouldn't have been in the tournament at all, coming from way back to knock off the third #1 seed to get knocked out in a row.  If you had told me before the tournament that only one #1 seed would make the final 4, I would have totally believed you.  If you had told me that prior to Saturday morning, I would have thought it was impossible.  Syracuse beating Virginia guaranteed that not a single person nailed all 4 Final 4 teams.

As a matter of fact, only 5 people got as many as 3 of the final 4 teams (Adam S., Klei R. #1, Missy W. #1, James R. & Jeff D.), and they all had the same three correct.  Only 2 people had the foresight to put Syracuse in the Final 4 (Daisy N. #5, Tim N.).  Unfortunately for Tim N., Syracuse was the only team he got right in the final 4 and is eliminated from all contention.  The average number of correct teams people had in the final 4 was 1.11.

There are now 124 entries that are completely done in that they can't get any more points.  The most of those is Matt N., who is currently 4th in points but is eliminated from all payouts.   There are only 13 people that still get all the remaining points.  Of those 13, 9 are still alive for some kind of payout.  Dustin B., Scott K. #1, Chad L. #3 and Irene H. #4 can still get a lot of points, but they have too many games in common with people that are ahead of them and can't pass enough people to make it into the money.  They could wind up with an enviable finish, just no money.

Here are the entries that were knocked out because of Virginia's loss:

Adam E.  (4th)

Adam S.  (4th)

Ava S.  (1st, 2nd, 4th)

Ben J. #4  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Craig G.  (4th)

Daisy N. #4  (1st, 3rd)

Dan Dz  (4th)

Howard S. #1  (3rd, 4th)

Hutch H. #3  (4th)

Irene H. #1  (3rd)

Jim D. #2  (3rd)

Joel B. #2  (1st, 3rd)

Jonathan O.  (2nd)

Julie S.  (3rd)

Klei R. #1  (4th)

Michelle R.  (3rd)

Pete J. #4  (4th)

Rob I. #1  (2nd)

Stefan K.  (2nd, 3rd, 4th)

Steve H.  (4th)

Tomas L. #2  (4th)

There were a lot of people that had North Carolina, so a lot of the eliminations that happen with the Notre Dame loss are people that had teams like Xavier and West Virginia in the Final 4, and needed North Carolina to lose to hang on to any hope.  Those extra 8 points were the final nail in a few people's coffins.  Here they are:

Adam S.  (3rd)

Alex I.  (2nd)

Becky H.  (4th)

Jim D. #2  (2nd)

Missy W. #1  (4th)

Ray W. #1  (1st)

That's the list.  Not much, but not many people had Notre Dame in the Final 4 anyway.

That also means that there are still 20 people alive to get 4 spots - and three games to go.  If your name appears on any of the next lists, congratulations!  A lot has to go right for you to even be alive right now.  90+% of the field is eliminated, so you've made it to the Final Table.

Here are the probabilities for 1st place:

1. Julie S. : 25%

1. Daisy N. #5 : 25%

3. Missy W. #1 : 12.5%

3. Adam S. : 12.5%

3. Jonathan O. : 12.5%

3. Klei R. #1 : 12.5%

...and for 2nd place:

1. Klei R. #1 : 25%

2. Irene H. #1 : 12.5%

2. Daisy N. #4 : 12.5%

2. Adam S. : 12.5%

2. James R. : 12.5%

2. Jeff D. : 12.5%

7. Dan Dz : 6.25%

7. Missy W. #1 : 6.25%

...and 3rd place:

1. James R. : 25%

2. Missy W. #1 : 18.75%

3. Adam E. : 12.5%

3. Jonathan O. : 12.5%

3. Klei R. #1 : 12.5%

3. Craig G. : 12.5%

7. Dan Dz : 6.25%

...and 4th place:

1. Mike W. : 12.5%

1. Brian K. : 12.5%

1. Irene H. #1 : 12.5%

1. Mike C. #2 : 12.5%

1. Michelle R. : 12.5%

1. Howard S. #2 : 12.5%

7. Jim D. #2 : 6.25%

7. Daisy N. #4 : 6.25%

7. Alex I. : 6.25%

7. Julie S. : 6.25%

There's still a way for us to need some tiebreakers if games play out in a certain way, which is why some people have less than 12.5% chances of winning, even though there are only 8 ways the tournament can play out from here on out.

For those interested in the points, here are the points standings:

1. Adam S.: 88 (-40)

2. Klei R. #1: 86 (-42)

3. Missy W. #1: 86 (-58)

4. Matt N.: 86 (-106)

5. Kazelli2: 85 (-91)

5. Mike C. #1: 85 (-91)

7. Michelle R.: 84 (-60)

8. James R.: 83 (-45)

9. Daisy N. #4: 83 (-61)

10. Jim D. #2: 83 (-93)

11. Ray W. #5: 83 (-109)

12. Jeff D.: 82 (-46)

13. Jeff S.: 82 (-110)

13. Missy W. #2: 82 (-110)

15. Hutch H. #3: 81 (-63)

15. Julie S.: 81 (-63)

17. Alex I.: 81 (-95)

18. Jay K.: 81 (-111)

18. Harrell R. #3: 81 (-111)

20. Craig G.: 80 (-48)

21. Ken P.: 80 (-112)

21. Joel B. #2: 80 (-112)

23. Jonathan O.: 79 (-49)

23. Mike C. #2: 79 (-49)

25. John E. #1: 79 (-113)

26. Carl B.: 78 (-66)

26. Brian K.: 78 (-66)

28. Ava S.: 78 (-98)

29. Hutch H. #1: 77 (-99)

29. Ray W. #8: 77 (-99)

29. Jackson I.: 77 (-99)

32. Luis B. #1: 77 (-115)

32. Pete J. #2: 77 (-115)

34. Wayne D. #1: 76 (-68)

35. Mike S. #1: 76 (-100)

35. Scott H. #1: 76 (-100)

35. Becky H.: 76 (-100)

38. Howard S. #1: 76 (-116)

39. Luis B. #2: 75 (-117)

40. Dustin B.: 74 (-54)

41. Daisy N. #5: 74 (-70)

41. Alyssa B.: 74 (-70)

41. Karen C.: 74 (-70)

44. Roth W.: 74 (-102)

45. Pete J. #1: 74 (-118)

45. Chris T.: 74 (-118)

47. Chun W. #1: 73 (-71)

47. Angie B.: 73 (-71)

47. Stefan K.: 73 (-71)

50. Elizabeth N.: 73 (-103)

51. Larry G. #2: 73 (-119)

51. Gary W.: 73 (-119)

51. Angie Bow.: 73 (-119)

51. Kye G. #2: 73 (-119)

51. Daisy N. #1: 73 (-119)

51. Taima B. #1: 73 (-119)

51. Pete J. #4: 73 (-119)

58. Jim D. #4: 72 (-104)

59. Jay H. #2: 72 (-120)

59. Wayne D. #3: 72 (-120)

59. William G. #1: 72 (-120)

59. Ben J. #3: 72 (-120)

63. Scott K. #1: 71 (-57)

64. Dennis R.: 71 (-73)

65. Irene H. #2: 71 (-105)

65. Gutless Kye: 71 (-105)

65. Gutless Missy: 71 (-105)

65. Gutless Ray: 71 (-105)

65. Rob I. #2: 71 (-105)

65. Jim D. #1: 71 (-105)

71. Damien R. #3: 71 (-121)

71. Chris M. #3: 71 (-121)

71. Joel B. #4: 71 (-121)

74. Dan Dz: 70 (-58)

75. Brett W.: 70 (-74)

76. Joel B. #1: 70 (-106)

77. Kirt R.: 70 (-122)

77. Josh C.: 70 (-122)

79. Todd K. #2: 69 (-107)

80. Howard S. #2: 68 (-60)

81. Scott H. #2: 68 (-76)

81. Michelle L. #2: 68 (-76)

83. John B.: 68 (-124)

83. Ally H.: 68 (-124)

83. Kansas C. #1: 68 (-124)

83. Daisy N. #6: 68 (-124)

87. Chad L. #3: 67 (-61)

88. Larry G. #1: 67 (-77)

89. Kristina H.: 67 (-109)

90. Jim D. #3: 67 (-125)

90. Jenny E.: 67 (-125)

90. Joel B. #5: 67 (-125)

93. Irene H. #4: 66 (-62)

94. Irene H. #1: 66 (-78)

95. Jason G. #1: 66 (-110)

96. Dylan B.: 66 (-126)

96. Chris L. #1: 66 (-126)

96. Chris L. #2: 66 (-126)

96. Tomas L. #2: 66 (-126)

100. Pete J. #3: 65 (-79)

100. Ben J. #4: 65 (-79)

100. Adam E.: 65 (-79)

103. Rob I. #1: 65 (-111)

103. Chris M. #1: 65 (-111)

105. Chris M. #4: 65 (-127)

105. Arianna S.: 65 (-127)

105. Tomas L. #1: 65 (-127)

105. Brent E. #2: 65 (-127)

109. Joe K. #1: 64 (-80)

109. Steve H.: 64 (-80)

111. April K.: 64 (-112)

112. Hutch H. #2: 64 (-128)

113. Chad L. #4: 63 (-81)

113. Mike W.: 63 (-81)

115. Ryan W.: 63 (-113)

116. Ben J. #1: 63 (-129)

116. Jay H. #1: 63 (-129)

116. Dan Du. #1: 63 (-129)

116. Chad L. #2: 63 (-129)

116. Dan S.: 63 (-129)

116. Joe D. #2: 63 (-129)

122. Harrell R. #1: 62 (-82)

123. Carin C.: 62 (-114)

123. Taima B. #2: 62 (-114)

123. Bella S.: 62 (-114)

123. Irene H. #3: 62 (-114)

123. Mason A. #1: 62 (-114)

128. Brent S. #2: 62 (-130)

128. Stephanie P. #2: 62 (-130)

130. Mason A. #2: 61 (-83)

130. William G. #2: 61 (-83)

130. Ray W. #2: 61 (-83)

130. Larry G. #3: 61 (-83)

134. Brian S.: 61 (-131)

134. Virginia L. #1: 61 (-131)

134. Jason G. #2: 61 (-131)

134. Presley J.: 61 (-131)

134. Plsczor Team: 61 (-131)

139. Brandon H.: 60 (-116)

139. Joel B. #3: 60 (-116)

141. Leslie S.: 60 (-132)

141. Joe K. #2: 60 (-132)

141. Stephanie P. #1: 60 (-132)

141. Ray W. #9: 60 (-132)

141. Mike S. #2: 60 (-132)

141. Michelle L. #1: 60 (-132)

141. Taran B.: 60 (-132)

148. Kazelli3: 59 (-133)

149. Brent E. #3: 58 (-118)

150. Gigi I.: 58 (-134)

151. Damien R. #1: 57 (-119)

152. Ray W. #3: 57 (-135)

152. Brent S. #1: 57 (-135)

152. Chun W. #4: 57 (-135)

155. John M. #1: 56 (-88)

155. Ben J. #2: 56 (-88)

157. Szecho L. #1: 56 (-120)

157. Brad R. #1: 56 (-120)

159. Chrissy I.: 56 (-136)

159. Danny H.: 56 (-136)

159. Mindi W.: 56 (-136)

159. Brett K. #2: 56 (-136)

163. Michelle L. #4: 55 (-121)

164. Tim N.: 55 (-137)

164. Brad R. #2: 55 (-137)

164. Damien R. #2: 55 (-137)

164. Joe K. #3: 55 (-137)

164. Wayne D. #2: 55 (-137)

164. Michelle D.: 55 (-137)

170. Daisy N. #2: 54 (-138)

170. Ray W. #6: 54 (-138)

170. Lisa M.: 54 (-138)

170. Stan C.: 54 (-138)

170. Marc R.: 54 (-138)

170. Eric R. #1: 54 (-138)

170. Chun W. #2: 54 (-138)

177. Michelle L. #3: 53 (-139)

177. Harrell R. #4: 53 (-139)

177. Dave M.: 53 (-139)

177. Brent E. #1: 53 (-139)

181. Todd K. #1: 52 (-140)

181. Harrell R. #2: 52 (-140)

181. Joe D. #1: 52 (-140)

181. Ray W. #7: 52 (-140)

185. Jim K.: 51 (-141)

185. Kansas C. #2: 51 (-141)

187. John M. #2: 50 (-142)

187. Ron B.: 50 (-142)

187. Jim W.: 50 (-142)

187. Brett K. #1: 50 (-142)

187. Daisy N. #3: 50 (-142)

192. Ray W. #1: 49 (-143)

192. Scott K. #2: 49 (-143)

192. Paul W.: 49 (-143)

192. Bosun S.: 49 (-143)

196. Kazelli1: 48 (-144)

196. Irene H. #5: 48 (-144)

198. Todd K. #3: 47 (-145)

198. Chris M. #2: 47 (-145)

200. Marissa O.: 45 (-131)

200. Jeremy C.: 45 (-131)

202. Szecho L. #2: 45 (-147)

203. Chun W. #3: 44 (-148)

203. John E. #2: 44 (-148)

203. Chris M. #5: 44 (-148)

206. Eric R. #2: 43 (-149)

206. Chad L. #1: 43 (-149)

206. Virginia L. #2: 43 (-149)

209. Jay H. #3: 42 (-150)

210. Klei R. #2: 41 (-151)

210. Brent E. #4: 41 (-151)

210. Jonathan V.: 41 (-151)

213. Dan Du. #2: 38 (-154)

I find it funny that I am in 2nd AND 2nd to last.  Talk about feast or famine.

But there are more games coming up on Saturday.  Games my family will be in attendance for.  Look for us.  We'll be higher up than the cameras in row S of section 671.

Oklahoma v Villanova:

If Oklahoma wins:

Adam S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. Brian K. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Daisy N. #4 is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention. Dan Dz is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Howard S. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention. Jeff D. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Jim D. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Jonathan O. is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention. Klei R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Michelle R. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Missy W. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

If Villanova wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Alex I. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Craig G. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Irene H. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention. James R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Julie S. is eliminated from 1st & 4th place contention.

Klei R. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention. Mike C. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention. Mike W. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

North Carolina v Syracuse:

If North Carolina wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Adam S. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Alex I. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Brian K. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Daisy N. #4 is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention. Daisy N. #5 is eliminated from 1st place contention. Irene H. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Jim D. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention. Jonathan O. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Julie S. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Mike W. is eliminated from 4th place contention.

Missy W. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Syracuse wins:

Adam S. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Craig G. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Dan Dz is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Howard S. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention. Irene H. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention. James R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Jeff D. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Jonathan O. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Klei R. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention. Michelle R. is eliminated from 4th place contention. Mike C. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention. Missy W. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

So, that's it for now.  There are only a few different ways things can play out, but we'll have more clarity after Saturday.  I'm pretty excited for it, since I've got a real shot to win that I haven't in a long, long time.  That also means that I get to experience the disappointment of losing my bracket in person.

On a last note, here are the brackets that STILL haven't paid yet.  There's really no excuse for this.  Hopefully, this shaming will provide you some motivation:

Adam E.

Alex I.

Ben J. #1

Ben J. #2

Ben J. #3

Ben J. #4

Carin C.

Chrissy I.

Dave M.

Gary W.

Gigi I.

Hutch H. #1

Hutch H. #2

Hutch H. #3

Jackson I.

Jay H. #1

Jay H. #2

Jay H. #3

Kansas C. #1

Kansas C. #2

Marc R.

Presley J.

Rob I. #1

Rob I. #2

Roth W.

Taran B.