Championship game set

 That North Carolina / Duke game really lived up to the hype.  I thought it was fantastic.  One big shot after another.  A few free throws one way or the other could have pushed the game in either direction.  I was really glad I didn’t have hundreds of potential dollars riding on the outcome of that game because I would have been a wreck.

But some people had hundreds of dollars riding on it.  We are down to one game left, and there are two things I know for sure: Mike W. and Ryan W. are going to win something.

Here’s how it breaks down, for those that care.  I always say that this pool looks like you are competing against 200+ people, but because of how it’s scored you are only really competing against people that picked the same team to win as you.  Given the final game is worth as much as all 32 games in the first round, there really isn’t much chance of winning without getting the winning team right (more on this later).  This year, if you have Kansas winning it all, as 20 people do, if they win the top 4 of those 20 are in line to get the 4 payouts.  Makes sense.

Most years, both teams in the final game have enough people picking them that you can count the top 4 entries with the right team and that’s the winner.  That may not be the case this year.  North Carolina was an 8 seed coming into the tournament, and wasn’t supposed to make it past Baylor in the second round.  That means only one person picked North Carolina to win it all.  As you would expect, if North Carolina actually wins it all, then that one person (John M. #3) will win.

If you ever needed more proof that you absolutely have to pick the winner to win this pool, look no further than John M. #3.  He has about a 50/50 shot at winning because he’s the only person to take North Carolina.  The rest of his Final 4 was Tennessee (lost in 2^nd round), Providence (lost in 2^nd round) and Connecticut (lost in 1^st round).  Think about all the points he lost to the field because of those games, and yet, here he is.

Since only one person took North Carolina to win, if they actually win, it doesn’t much matter anymore if you picked to win the pool anymore, since no one else is getting those points.  As a result, 2^nd, 3^rd & 4^th essentially go to the top 3 entries in points right now.  Since Mike W. is currently in 1^st place, he’ll fall to 2^nd getting passed by John M. #3.  Ryan W. is currently in 3^rd.  He would fall to 4^th.  So, regardless of the outcome those 2 guys will get something.  They both picked Kansas to win, so they will win more money if they actually do win, but they are going to get something.

The last payout spot is interesting because it could belong to Kristin G.  She had Kansas in the Championship game, but she had them losing to Gonzaga.  Therefore, if Kansas wins, she’ll get passed by all the people that picked Kansas and win nothing.  However, if North Carolina wins, all those Kansas people will get nothing and she’ll only fall from 2^nd in points to 3^rd.

It may seem strange that someone who didn’t pick the champion could still get 3^rd, but if Kansas loses, those people didn’t pick the champion either.  It’s a tiebreaker.  You look at who picked the champion.  If there aren’t 4 people that picked the champion, you go down one level and look at who picked the winner of the semi-final games.  That’s where we would be.

So, here are the outcomes depending on who wins on Monday night:

If North Carolina wins:

John M. #3 wins 1^st place.

Mike W. wins 2^nd place.

Kristin G. wins 3^rd place.

Ryan W. wins 4^th place.

 

If Kansas wins:

Mike W. wins 1^st place.

Ryan W. wins 2^nd place.

Craig G. wins 3^rd place.

Dustin B. wins 4^th place.

 

If you want to see the matrix, here it is:

Name	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place
Mike W. - Kansas	50.0000%	50.0000%	St. Peter's	St. Peter's
Ryan W. - Kansas	St. Peter's	50.0000%	Miami-Florida	50.0000%
Kristin G. - Gonzaga	Arkansas	Arkansas	50.0000%	Miami-Florida
Craig G. - Kansas	St. Peter's	Duke	50.0000%	St. Peter's
Dustin B. - Kansas	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas	50.0000%
John M. #3 - North Carolina	50.0000%	Miami-Florida	Houston	Houston

Enjoy the Finals!!!!  It promises to be really, really good!!!!

North Carolina v Duke

 It’s a good day to be John M. or Mike W.  One of those two guys is going to win this pool.  If it’s Kansas, Mike W. is going to win.  If it’s anyone else, John M. is going to win.  When I saw this, I kind of thought maybe John M submitted two brackets that were more or less the same with the only difference being who he had winning this Duke / North Carolina game, but that’s not the case.  His brackets are totally different, but both good enough to still be alive to win.  A big part of that is that John M. #3 is the only person to have picked North Carolina to win the whole thing.  That can cover up a lot of missed picks.

Here is an updated (and truncated) matrix:

Name	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place
Mike W. - Kansas	50.0000%	25.0000%	St. Peter's	St. Peter's
Ryan W. - Kansas	St. Peter's	25.0000%	Miami-Florida	50.0000%
Craig G. - Kansas	St. Peter's	25.0000%	25.0000%	St. Peter's
Kristin G. - Gonzaga	Arkansas	Arkansas	25.0000%	Miami-Florida
Dustin B. - Kansas	Arkansas	Arkansas	Arkansas	25.0000%
John M. #2 - Duke	25.0000%	UCLA	Villanova	Miami-Florida
Kristina H. - Duke	Villanova	25.0000%	Miami-Florida	Houston
Matt H. - Duke	Arizona	Villanova	25.0000%	Villanova
Stefon K. - Kansas	Initial	Gonzaga	25.0000%	Purdue
Brent S. #1 - Duke	Arizona	Arizona	Purdue	25.0000%
John M. #3 - North Carolina	25.0000%	Miami-Florida	Houston	Houston

Here are the eliminations for the Duke / North Carolina game:

If Duke wins:

Result	Pick
Craig G. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Duke
Dustin B. is eliminated from 4th place contention.	Purdue
John M. #3 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	North Carolina
Kristin G. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Gonzaga
Mike W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Duke
Ryan W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Baylor

If North Carolina wins:

Result	Pick
Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 4th place contention.	Duke
Craig G. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Duke
John M. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Duke
Kristina H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Duke
Matt H. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Duke
Stefon K. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Duke

I’m pretty excited about this game.  I’ve been following college basketball since Villanova beat Georgetown in 1985.  I’ve probably watched more North Carolina and Duke games than any other pairing.  It’s amazing to me that they’ve never played in the NCAA tournament before.  Add in that it could be Coach K’s last game, that Coach K is 50-49 all time against North Carolina, that UNC killed Duke in Coach K’s last home game ever.  There’s so much drama leading up to this game.  I hope it cam live up to the hype.  Sit back and enjoy!!!!

Kansas V Villanova

 It’s been a bit of a break since we last had basketball (at least NCAA Men’s basketball).  That is all remedied today, as we have two games on the schedule.

The nice thing for me is that because there are only 8 ways things can play out, it doesn’t take much time to calculate who gets eliminated with the outcomes of the games.

The first game up is Villanova v Kansas.

Villnova won the South region, taking down my beloved Houston squad in the process.  It looks like they are going to be without their second leading scorer in this one after tearing his Achilles in the last game.  That should be a pretty big loss for them, since they aren’t that deep of a team.  One thing they will have going for them is that they are going to make this game as boring and unwatchable as possible – unless you like watching people dribble at midcourt waiting for the shot clock to go below ten before starting the offense.  If that’s your jam, then Villanova is the team for you.  Honestly, I don’t see how they win if the game isn’t as slow as possible.  It’s hard to see how they run with Kansas.

Kansas won the Midwest region and were marginally pushed throughout.  I don’t think I’ve watched a team play as good as Kansas did in the second half of the Miami game last week, so if they can keep that up, I’m not sure anyone can beat them.  I also put a side bet in on Remy Martin being player of the tournament.  Back when I was still alive in this thing and Arizona wasn’t figuring out how many of their players should go pro, Remy Martin was the one player I worried about.  Kansas didn’t have that great of a regular season for the most part.  It’s only been in the last month or so that they’ve looked this good and most of that was due to the return of Remy Martin.

From an administrative perspective, I’m kinda hoping Kansas wins, because I think it knocks out the last remaining scenarios in which a tie occurs anywhere.  Interesting fact: If Kansas wins, all 3 remaining women are knocked out of 1^st place contention, but no men.

So, here are the eliminations for the first game:

If Villanova wins:

Result	Pick
Craig G. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Kansas
Dustin B. is eliminated from 4th place contention.	Kansas
John M. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Kansas
Kristin G. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Kansas
Mike W. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Kansas
Ryan W. is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention.	Kansas
Stefon K. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Kansas

If Kansas Wins:

Result	Pick
Amber W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Villanova
April K. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.	Villanova
Becky H. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Villanova
Daisy N. #2 is eliminated from 4th place contention.	Villanova
John M. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Kansas
Kristina H. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Villanova
Lindsay R. is eliminated from 3rd & 4th place contention.	Villanova
Matt H. is eliminated from 2nd & 4th place contention.	Villanova

John M. #2 is an interesting case because he is going to lose access to one of the payouts regardless of what happens.  I think his odds of winning something may stay the same, but just what that something is will change.

Good luck!!  I’ll be back between games to give more updates.