Monday, December 31, 2018

After Gator Bowl


Wow.  It was an interesting day here at NCAA Bowl Pool HQ.  Starting the day, we had 35 entries that could win some kind of money.  We eliminated 18 entries, so we are down to 17 that can still win money.

For those that are curious, here are the probabilities of winning something (1st, 2nd or 3rd):
Dylan B. (93.75%)
Mike S. (51.5625%)
Ally H. (41.4062%)
Dan Du. (37.5%)
Becky H. (24.2187%)
Jay H. #3 (10.1562%)
Pete J. #1 (9.375%)
Scott Has. (7.8125%)
Andrzej R. (7.0312%)
Mike W. (3.9062%)
Brad R. (3.125%)
Ryan W. (3.125%)
Josiah T. #3 (2.3437%)
Marc R. (1.5625%)
Josiah T. #4 (1.5625%)
Eric L. (0.7812%)
Eric V. (0.7812%)

Here were the eliminations starting on the day:

Virginia Tech:
Ashley D. (2nd)
Bosun S. (3rd)
Dan Dz. (3rd)
Harrell R. #2 (2nd, 3rd)
Jay H. #1 (3rd)
Klei R. (3rd)
Marc R. (1st)
Max W. #1 (1st)
Max W. #2 (2nd)
Michelle L. #1 (1st)

Pittsburgh:
Ashley D. (3rd)
Jason S. (2nd, 3rd)
Max W. #2 (3rd)

Michigan State:
Ben S. #1 (3rd)
Josiah T. #3 (1st)
Julie S. (1st)
Max W. #1 (2nd, 3rd)
Mike W. (2nd)
Pete J. #2 (1st, 2nd)
Ryan W. (1st)

Missouri:
Andrzej R. (1st)
James P. (3rd)
Jay H. #3 (1st)
Michelle L. #1 (2nd, 3rd)
Pete J. #1 (1st)
Pete J. #2 (3rd)

Utah:
Adam E. (2nd, 3rd)
Eric L. (2nd)
Hutch H. (3rd)
Jim W. (2nd, 3rd)
Marc R. (3rd)

NC State:
Ava S. (2nd, 3rd)
Julie S. (2nd, 3rd)

That doesn’t leave us many people alive.  Here are the probabilities to get 1st place:

1. Dylan B. (62.5%)
2. Dan Du. (15.625%)
3. Mike S. (12.5%)
4. Becky H. (9.375%)

…and the probabilities for 2nd place:

1. Dylan B. (27.3437%)
2. Mike S. (19.5312%)
3. Ally H. (17.1875%)
4. Dan Du. (7.8125%)
5. Pete J. #1 (6.25%)
6. Becky H. (4.6875%)
7. Scott Has. (3.125%)
7. Andrzej R. (3.125%)
7. Jay H. #3 (3.125%)
10. Ryan W. (2.3437%)
11. Brad R. (1.5625%)
11. Marc R. (1.5625%)
11. Josiah T. #3 (1.5625%)
14. Josiah T. #4 (0.7812%)

…and 3rd place:

1. Ally H. (24.2187%)
2. Mike S. (19.5312%)
3. Dan Du. (14.0625%)
4. Becky H. (10.1562%)
5. Jay H. #3 (7.0312%)
6. Scott Has. (4.6875%)
7. Dylan B. (3.9062%)
7. Andrzej R. (3.9062%)
7. Mike W. (3.9062%)
10. Pete J. #1 (3.125%)
11. Brad R. (1.5625%)
12. Josiah T. #4 (0.7812%)
12. Ryan W. (0.7812%)
12. Josiah T. #3 (0.7812%)
12. Eric L. (0.7812%)
12. Eric V. (0.7812%)


The big winner on the day was Ally H., who was one of only 3 people to nail all 6 games for 163 points.  The other two people (Emily J., Damien R. #1) were already mathematically eliminated from all places, so today only helped for pride.  Dylan B. started off the day with a pretty commanding lead, but he only netted 19 points today (37th on the day), which let a number of people back into the pool.  Mike S. net 83 points (10th on the day) to rise considerably in the standings.  Dan Du. also had a good day with 89 net points (8th overall).  Becky H. was the last live entry, and she finished 13th on the day in net points with 77.

For those that are interested in the total points rankings, here they are:

1. Ally H.: 516 (-229)
2. Dylan B.: 508 (-133)
3. Dan Du.: 481 (-197)
4. Mike S.: 470 (-177)
5. Jim W.: 464 (-237)
6. Andrzej R.: 463 (-219)
7. Pete J. #1: 458 (-219)
8. Peter F.: 450 (-259)
9. Becky H.: 449 (-202)
10. Jay H. #3: 438 (-202)
11. Marc R.: 436 (-224)
12. Jason S.: 436 (-236)
13. Brad R.: 428 (-223)
14. Mike W.: 415 (-190)
15. Ryan W.: 415 (-218)
16. Josiah T. #3: 414 (-261)
17. Nick S.: 412 (-353)
18. Michelle L. #1: 410 (-240)
19. Scott Has.: 407 (-201)
20. James P.: 407 (-249)
21. Jay H. #1: 405 (-250)
22. Hutch H.: 399 (-233)
23. Julie S.: 396 (-206)
24. Adam E.: 396 (-251)
25. Brett W.: 395 (-254)
26. Kevin W.: 394 (-247)
27. Ben S. #1: 394 (-277)
28. Grant F.: 394 (-285)
29. Josiah T. #4: 392 (-225)
30. Ben S. #2: 392 (-285)
31. Harrell R. #2: 388 (-249)
32. Pete J. #2: 388 (-289)
33. Brent E. #4: 386 (-260)
34. Emily J.: 385 (-243)
35. Scott Her. #1: 385 (-280)
36. Matt N.: 385 (-302)
37. Amos W.: 382 (-260)
38. Mike N.: 381 (-243)
39. Eric L.: 380 (-228)
39. Eric V.: 380 (-228)
41. Harrell R. #1: 374 (-263)
42. Jim D.: 373 (-288)
43. Brent E. #2: 362 (-284)
44. Josiah T. #1: 358 (-279)
45. Dan Dz.: 354 (-299)
46. Damien R. #1: 354 (-329)
47. Josiah T. #2: 351 (-266)
48. Brent E. #1: 350 (-296)
49. Scott Her. #2: 348 (-307)
50. Damien R. #2: 344 (-298)
51. Max W. #1: 340 (-255)
52. Klei R.: 339 (-331)
53. Brent E. #3: 335 (-311)
54. Justin H.: 332 (-302)
55. Bosun S.: 323 (-279)
55. Ava S.: 323 (-279)
57. Dustin B.: 321 (-275)
58. Ashley D.: 321 (-300)
59. Michelle L. #2: 317 (-296)
60. Sally R.: 311 (-339)
61. Craig G.: 299 (-321)
62. Max W. #2: 298 (-311)
63. Tim N.: 286 (-324)
64. Nichole W.: 284 (-337)
65. Dan S.: 255 (-347)
66. Jay H. #2: 225 (-448)

…and the net points rankings:

1. Dylan B.: 375
2. Mike S.: 293
3. Ally H.: 287
4. Dan Du.: 284
5. Becky H.: 247
6. Andrzej R.: 244
7. Pete J. #1: 239
8. Jay H. #3: 236
9. Jim W.: 227
10. Mike W.: 225
11. Marc R.: 212
12. Scott Has.: 206
13. Brad R.: 205
14. Jason S.: 200
15. Ryan W.: 197
16. Peter F.: 191
17. Julie S.: 190
18. Michelle L. #1: 170
19. Josiah T. #4: 167
20. Hutch H.: 166
21. James P.: 158
22. Jay H. #1: 155
23. Josiah T. #3: 153
24. Eric L.: 152
24. Eric V.: 152
26. Kevin W.: 147
27. Adam E.: 145
28. Emily J.: 142
29. Brett W.: 141
30. Harrell R. #2: 139
31. Mike N.: 138
32. Brent E. #4: 126
33. Amos W.: 122
34. Ben S. #1: 117
35. Harrell R. #1: 111
36. Grant F.: 109
37. Ben S. #2: 107
38. Scott Her. #1: 105
39. Pete J. #2: 99
40. Jim D.: 85
40. Josiah T. #2: 85
40. Max W. #1: 85
43. Matt N.: 83
44. Josiah T. #1: 79
45. Brent E. #2: 78
46. Nick S.: 59
47. Dan Dz.: 55
48. Brent E. #1: 54
49. Damien R. #2: 46
49. Dustin B.: 46
51. Bosun S.: 44
51. Ava S.: 44
53. Scott Her. #2: 41
54. Justin H.: 30
55. Damien R. #1: 25
56. Brent E. #3: 24
57. Ashley D.: 21
57. Michelle L. #2: 21
59. Klei R.: 8
60. Max W. #2: -13
61. Craig G.: -22
62. Sally R.: -28
63. Tim N.: -38
64. Nichole W.: -53
65. Dan S.: -92
66. Jay H. #2: -223


I think I put this matrix put last year (maybe in March Madness), but I’ve added the probabilities to it, so you can see your odds of winning and who knocked you out of what place:

Row Labels
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Adam E.
Initial
Utah
Utah
Ally H.
Initial
0.171875
0.2421875
Amos W.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Andrzej R.
Missouri
0.03125
0.0390625
Ashley D.
Initial
Va. Tech
Pitt
Ava S.
Initial
NC State
NC State
Becky H.
0.09375
0.046875
0.1015625
Ben S. #1
Initial
Initial
Mich St.
Ben S. #2
Initial
Initial
Initial
Bosun S.
Initial
Initial
Va. Tech
Brad R.
Initial
0.015625
0.015625
Brent E. #1
Initial
Initial
Initial
Brent E. #2
Initial
Initial
Initial
Brent E. #3
Initial
Initial
Initial
Brent E. #4
Initial
Initial
Initial
Brett W.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Craig G.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Damien R. #1
Initial
Initial
Initial
Damien R. #2
Initial
Initial
Initial
Dan Du.
0.15625
0.078125
0.140625
Dan Dz.
Initial
Initial
Va. Tech
Dan S.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Dustin B.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Dylan B.
0.625
0.2734375
0.0390625
Emily J.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Eric L.
Initial
Utah
0.0078125
Eric V.
Initial
Initial
0.0078125
Grant F.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Harrell R. #1
Initial
Initial
Initial
Harrell R. #2
Initial
Va. Tech
Va. Tech
Hutch H.
Initial
Initial
Utah
James P.
Initial
Initial
Missouri
Jason S.
Initial
Pitt
Pitt
Jay H. #1
Initial
Initial
Va. Tech
Jay H. #2
Initial
Initial
Initial
Jay H. #3
Missouri
0.03125
0.0703125
Jim D.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Jim W.
Initial
Utah
Utah
Josiah T. #1
Initial
Initial
Initial
Josiah T. #2
Initial
Initial
Initial
Josiah T. #3
Mich St.
0.015625
0.0078125
Josiah T. #4
Initial
0.0078125
0.0078125
Julie S.
Mich St.
NC State
NC State
Justin H.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Kevin W.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Klei R.
Initial
Initial
Va. Tech
Marc R.
Va. Tech
0.015625
Utah
Matt N.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Max W. #1
Va. Tech
Mich St.
Mich St.
Max W. #2
Initial
Va. Tech
Pitt
Michelle L. #1
Va. Tech
Missouri
Missouri
Michelle L. #2
Initial
Initial
Initial
Mike N.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Mike S.
0.125
0.1953125
0.1953125
Mike W.
Initial
Mich St.
0.0390625
Nichole W.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Nick S.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Pete J. #1
Missouri
0.0625
0.03125
Pete J. #2
Mich St.
Mich St.
Missouri
Peter F.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Ryan W.
Mich St.
0.0234375
0.0078125
Sally R.
Initial
Initial
Initial
Scott Has.
Initial
0.03125
0.046875
Scott Her. #1
Initial
Initial
Initial
Scott Her. #2
Initial
Initial
Initial
Tim N.
Initial
Initial
Initial


Some of the more astute readers will notice that Ally H. took over the top spot in total points at the end of the day, but is mathematically eliminated from 1st place.  The reason is because she’s used all but 65 points to get there.  There are people behind here in the points standings, suck as Dylan B. who had 169 points left at stake, or Dan Du., who has 132.  Unfortunately, there is no scenario where she doesn’t let at least one person pass her in points.  That sucks, but at least she’s in great position to win 2nd or 3rd.  If you’ve been in my pools before, you know how much I root for Ally, so I’m hoping she wins.  That would be pretty sweet.

Then again, there are 5 more games tomorrow, so a lot will be decided.  Like today, I’ll put out the single game eliminations.  Remember that a combination of games could also knock you out of the pool.  Here are the single game eliminations:

Outback Bowl
If Mississippi State Wins:
Becky H. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Mike S. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Mike W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Ryan W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
If Iowa Wins:
Andrzej R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Brad R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Dan Du. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Eric L. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Eric V. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Jay H. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Josiah T. #3 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Josiah T. #4 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Marc R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Scott Has. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Citrus Bowl
If LSU Wins:
Andrzej R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Brad R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Jay H. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Marc R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
If UCF Wins:
Becky H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Eric L. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Eric V. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Josiah T. #3 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Josiah T. #4 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Mike W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Ryan W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Scott Has. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Fiesta Bowl
If Kentucky Wins:
Andrzej R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Brad R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Eric L. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Eric V. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Jay H. #3 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Josiah T. #3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Josiah T. #4 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Mike W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Ryan W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Scott Has. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
If Penn State Wins:
Becky H. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Dylan B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Josiah T. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Marc R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Rose Bowl
If Washington Wins:
Brad R. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Eric L. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Eric V. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Jay H. #3 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Josiah T. #4 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Marc R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Ryan W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Scott Has. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
If Ohio State Wins:
Becky H. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
Dylan B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Josiah T. #3 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Sugar Bowl
If Georgia Wins:
Brad R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Dylan B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Josiah T. #3 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
Josiah T. #4 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
If Texas Wins:
Andrzej R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Becky H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Brad R. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Eric L. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Eric V. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
Marc R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
Ryan W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.


OK.  Virtually everything will be decided tomorrow.  Unfortunately for this pool, most of the winners are decided before the final game is played.  If everyone left alive picked Alabama to win, the 30 points don’t really mean much.  We will see though.  I’ll be back with an update tomorrow night.

Good luck!!!!

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