Posts
Back in the day, I know I said that I kind of liked when
they played one game a day for a while at the end of the season. I’m not so sure I’m all that jazzed about
having a week-long delay between the Lending Tree Bowl and the National Championship
game. Honestly, college football more or
less fell off the radar for me in that time.
They need to keep the momentum.
My proposal is to have one game a day for 41 straight days. They can make the semi-final games on one day
to cut it down to 40, but we would be I think that would be really fun. It will never happen, but I can dream.
Anyway, LSU won. In
the grand scheme of things, the last game didn’t matter. The top 9 places were going to be the same
regardless of the outcome of this game.
It turned out that the top 17 places all took LSU, so it seems like there
was a correlation, but that doesn’t imply causation. There was a positive correlation between
picking LSU and finishing near the top (.55), but just picking games right
regardless of points was a stronger correlation (.88). If I had more time, I’d figure out picking
what game’s winner had the highest correlation with the final results (My bet
is Texas in the Alamo Bowl, but I’m not sure 100% on that. I could be surprised.
I mentioned a few weeks back that this year was crushing
previous years in terms of the number of points won by not just the top
pickers, but really everyone. Last year,
Mike S. won with 565 points. That would
have been good enough for 40th this season. So, more than half of the field would have
scored more points. That’s a huge
difference, especially considering there was the same number of points at stake
in both years. I can’t really explain that. Maybe everyone is getting better, or there
were fewer upsets, or the games are more predictable (obviously). I really can’t pin in it down. Watch, next year you’ll need 475 points to
win. Strange indeed.
So, here is the final elimination matrix, complete with
final points.
|
Total
|
1st Place
|
2nd Place
|
3rd Place
|
|
1.
Jim W.: 713 (-137)
|
1st Place
|
Nevada
|
Indiana
|
|
2.
Harrell R. #2: 691 (-159)
|
Utah
|
2nd Place
|
So. Miss
|
|
3.
Pete J. #1: 683 (-167)
|
Utah
|
So. Miss
|
3rd Place
|
|
4.
Harrell R. #1: 682 (-168)
|
Initial
|
Utah
|
So. Miss
|
|
5.
Grant F.: 677 (-173)
|
Nevada
|
Nevada
|
Indiana
|
|
6.
Ben W.: 670 (-180)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Va. Tech
|
|
7.
Mike S.: 669 (-181)
|
Utah
|
Utah
|
BC
|
|
8.
Jonathan J.: 668 (-182)
|
Kan. St.
|
Wisconsin
|
Wisconsin
|
|
9.
Josiah T. #1: 666 (-184)
|
Auburn
|
Baylor
|
Indiana
|
|
10.
Pete J. #2: 665 (-185)
|
Initial
|
Kan. St.
|
Auburn
|
|
11.
Hutch H.: 652 (-198)
|
Kan. St.
|
Kan. St.
|
Kan. St.
|
|
11.
Scott Herd. #2: 652 (-198)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Kan. St.
|
|
13.
Dave M.: 641 (-209)
|
Kan. St.
|
Kan. St.
|
Kan. St.
|
|
14.
Brett W.: 640 (-210)
|
Indiana
|
Nevada
|
Nevada
|
|
15.
Michelle L. #1: 628 (-222)
|
Fla. St.
|
Fla. St.
|
Baylor
|
|
16.
Emily T.: 625 (-225)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Va. Tech
|
|
17.
Brian K.: 624 (-226)
|
Initial
|
Va. Tech
|
Va. Tech
|
|
18.
Mason A.: 620 (-230)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
19.
James P.: 619 (-231)
|
Utah
|
Baylor
|
Baylor
|
|
20.
Mike N.: 612 (-238)
|
Nevada
|
So. Miss
|
Nevada
|
|
21.
Peter F.: 607 (-243)
|
Wisconsin
|
Wisconsin
|
Wisconsin
|
|
21.
Brent S.: 607 (-243)
|
Baylor
|
Nevada
|
Nevada
|
|
23.
Klei R.: 604 (-246)
|
Baylor
|
Baylor
|
Baylor
|
|
24.
Andrzej #1: 603 (-247)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Va. Tech
|
|
25.
Dylan B.: 601 (-249)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Utah
|
|
26.
Andrzej #2: 600 (-250)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Kan. St.
|
|
27.
Mike W.: 597 (-253)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
28.
Pete J. #3: 596 (-254)
|
Michigan
|
Michigan
|
Michigan
|
|
28.
Scott Herd. #1: 596 (-254)
|
Ga. St.
|
Utah
|
Utah
|
|
30.
Matt N.: 595 (-255)
|
Va. Tech
|
Fla. St.
|
Indiana
|
|
30.
Josiah T. #2: 595 (-255)
|
Ga. St.
|
Wisconsin
|
Wisconsin
|
|
32.
Scott Has. #1: 594 (-256)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
33.
Marc R.: 587 (-263)
|
BC
|
Indiana
|
Indiana
|
|
34.
Josiah T. #3: 581 (-269)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
35.
Adam E.: 575 (-275)
|
Baylor
|
Baylor
|
Nevada
|
|
36.
Greg McE. - ESPN: 574 (-276)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Utah
|
|
36.
Damien R. #2: 574 (-276)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
38.
Jay H. #1: 572 (-278)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
39.
Scott Has. #2: 566 (-284)
|
Michigan
|
Michigan
|
Michigan
|
|
40.
Dustin B.: 565 (-285)
|
Utah
|
Michigan
|
Michigan
|
|
41.
Shawn M.: 555 (-295)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
42.
Ryan G.: 554 (-296)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
43.
Jay H. #2: 552 (-298)
|
Initial
|
Fla. St.
|
Fla. St.
|
|
44.
Ryan W.: 551 (-299)
|
Ga. St.
|
Utah
|
Utah
|
|
45.
Dan Du.: 544 (-306)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
45.
Michelle L. #2: 544 (-306)
|
Baylor
|
Baylor
|
Baylor
|
|
47.
Jaxon S.: 542 (-308)
|
Va. Tech
|
Kan. St.
|
Kan. St.
|
|
48.
Cory R.: 541 (-309)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
49.
Max W. #2: 533 (-317)
|
Va. Tech
|
Initial
|
Utah
|
|
50.
Nick B.: 531 (-319)
|
Michigan
|
Auburn
|
Michigan
|
|
51.
Mike Smith: 530 (-320)
|
BC
|
BC
|
BC
|
|
51.
Max A. #2: 530 (-320)
|
Kan. St.
|
Michigan
|
BC
|
|
53.
Matt M.: 526 (-324)
|
Kan. St.
|
Kan. St.
|
Ga. St.
|
|
54.
Nikki W.: 523 (-327)
|
Initial
|
Va. Tech
|
Va. Tech
|
|
55.
Max W. #1: 520 (-330)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
56.
Andrew D.: 512 (-338)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
57.
Tim N.: 510 (-340)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
57.
Brad R.: 510 (-340)
|
Va. Tech
|
Va. Tech
|
Va. Tech
|
|
59.
Becky H.: 507 (-343)
|
Va. Tech
|
Va. Tech
|
Va. Tech
|
|
60.
Bryan G.: 501 (-349)
|
Baylor
|
BC
|
Indiana
|
|
61.
Max A. #1: 495 (-355)
|
Va. Tech
|
Va. Tech
|
Va. Tech
|
|
62.
Steve Dz.: 464 (-386)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
62.
Nichole W.: 464 (-386)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
64.
Jason S.: 462 (-388)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
65.
Ally H.: 460 (-390)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
|
66.
Kirt R.: 454 (-396)
|
Fla. St.
|
Kan. St.
|
Kan. St.
|
|
67.
Damien R. #1: 430 (-420)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Va. Tech
|
|
68.
Rich P.: 415 (-435)
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Initial
|
Feel free to brag amongst your friends if you wound up
beating them, even if you didn’t finish in the top 3.
Turns out we didn’t need the “only one payout per player”
rule after all, as Harrell finished 2nd and 4th this year. That’s a good thing.
So, we had 6 people pick >=30 games right this
season. That’s a little misleading, because
Harrell was 2 of them and Pete J. was another 2. The other 2 people were Jim W. (obviously)
and Scott Herd. #2. Jim W. was the clear
winner here with a whopping 35/41 games right.
2nd was Harrell R. #2 with 33. I’ve seen bowl pools where they don’t even
bother with the points, they just pick winners that person with the most wins
wins the pool. That would be easier to
administer, and the results (as far as the payout go) would have been exactly
the same – or at least to the same people.
Not sure I like that since the points make the commentary a little more
interesting to write, even if don’t often make a difference.
Speaking of which , the annual award for person that made
the most of their picks was Dustin B. He
only picked 22 games right, but averaged 25.68 points per win, so he was the
person that maxed out their points best.
The flip side of that was Damien R. #1, who also picked 22 games right,
but only averaged 19.55 points per win, and finished in 67th. So, that’s a 27 position swing for two
entries that picked the same number of games right, so maybe the points matter
after all.
That’s it for this year’s pool. I’ll be back in a few months for March
Madness. I’m already excited about
that. I’ve been following the season
pretty close, so hopefully I’ll be able to repeat my success from last
year. Finger’s crossed. Until then, enjoy the college basketball season!!!!
