The false promise of Baylor

Every year, without fail, I watch Baylor play football or basketball and think that they are a team that could really be a sleeper in the postseason.  Then the postseason rolls around and Baylor inevitably lets me down.  You would think I would learn my lesson from them after doing that for probably a decade or so, but oh no…  Baylor against a depleted Georgia squad.  Sign me up!  Even this year I only put 4 points on them, but those 4 points plus all the points people got for Georgia was enough to knock me completely out of contention.  Grrr…  Baylor sucks.

Jim W. still leads those that are left.  There are only 6 people left that can actually win this thing, so my guess is that we may have a winner before the Championship game rolls around.  I think we may need that last game for 2^nd or 3^rd.  We have managed to whittle down the field to only 16 entries left that can still win something.  If you are still alive at this point, we are getting into some rarified air, and the end is just around the corner.  Jim W.’s stranglehold on the top spot faded a little today.  Jim W. went 3-3 in the first 6 games, but then went on long run of winning 24/25 games.  That should put you at the top of any pool.

Here are the points standings:

1. Jim W.: 556 (-137)

2. Grant F.: 553 (-152)

3. Mike N.: 553 (-185)

4. James P.: 550 (-228)

5. Peter F.: 549 (-239)

6. Pete J. #1: 536 (-167)

7. Brett W.: 534 (-170)

8. Scott Herd. #2: 534 (-198)

9. Harrell R. #2: 531 (-159)

10. Mike S.: 530 (-181)

11. Brian K.: 526 (-226)

12. Josiah T. #1: 524 (-179)

13. Matt N.: 523 (-210)

14. Harrell R. #1: 522 (-168)

15. Pete J. #2: 522 (-181)

16. Marc R.: 519 (-177)

17. Ben W.: 518 (-180)

18. Jonathan J.: 503 (-182)

19. Mason A.: 501 (-220)

20. Andrzej #1: 501 (-243)

21. Andrzej #2: 500 (-244)

22. Dave M.: 496 (-185)

23. Brent S.: 496 (-189)

24. Hutch H.: 495 (-196)

25. Klei R.: 493 (-209)

26. Max W. #2: 487 (-293)

27. Pete J. #3: 483 (-220)

28. Jaxon S.: 479 (-257)

29. Max A. #1: 479 (-316)

30. Adam E.: 478 (-205)

31. Ryan G.: 478 (-258)

32. Andrew D.: 478 (-307)

33. Josiah T. #2: 477 (-225)

34. Josiah T. #3: 476 (-269)

35. Shawn M.: 475 (-286)

36. Mike W.: 473 (-240)

37. Dan Du.: 473 (-265)

38. Mike Smith: 471 (-210)

39. Scott Herd. #1: 471 (-236)

40. Michelle L. #1: 470 (-215)

41. Dylan B.: 470 (-232)

42. Scott Has. #1: 464 (-252)

43. Nikki W.: 464 (-290)

44. Emily T.: 460 (-225)

45. Ryan W.: 460 (-233)

46. Damien R. #2: 460 (-256)

47. Bryan G.: 457 (-247)

48. Scott Has. #2: 448 (-224)

49. Brad R.: 448 (-249)

50. Michelle L. #2: 445 (-240)

51. Greg McE. - ESPN: 443 (-242)

52. Jay H. #2: 432 (-264)

53. Tim N.: 425 (-292)

54. Jay H. #1: 422 (-244)

55. Max A. #2: 421 (-224)

56. Max W. #1: 417 (-269)

57. Matt M.: 414 (-255)

58. Cory R.: 412 (-289)

59. Steve Dz.: 407 (-309)

60. Becky H.: 394 (-303)

61. Ally H.: 389 (-358)

62. Damien R. #1: 389 (-415)

63. Nick B.: 386 (-244)

64. Dustin B.: 385 (-285)

65. Jason S.: 375 (-378)

66. Kirt R.: 363 (-319)

67. Rich P.: 357 (-404)

68. Nichole W.: 353 (-325)

And the elimination matrix:

Net Rank	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
1. Jim W.: 419	42.19%	20.31%	7.03%
2. Grant F.: 401	25.78%	17.19%	10.16%
3. Harrell R. #2: 372	Utah	15.63%	19.27%
5. Mike N.: 368	13.28%	10.16%	11.46%
10. Marc R.: 342	14.06%	7.03%	5.99%
4. Pete J. #1: 369	Utah	10.94%	15.63%
6. Brett W.: 364	1.56%	10.16%	8.59%
26. Mike Smith: 261	3.13%	3.13%	3.13%
19. Brent S.: 307	Baylor	3.91%	4.69%
7. Harrell R. #1: 354	Initial	Utah	4.69%
16. Matt N.: 313	Va. Tech	Fla. St.	2.34%
40. Bryan G.: 210	Baylor	1.56%	0.78%
47. Max A. #2: 197	Kan. St.	Michigan	2.34%
8. Mike S.: 349	Utah	Utah	1.56%
24. Adam E.: 273	Baylor	Baylor	1.56%
9. Josiah T. #1: 345	Auburn	Baylor	0.78%
11. Pete J. #2: 341	Initial	Kan. St.	Auburn
12. Ben W.: 338	Initial	Initial	Va. Tech
13. Scott Herd. #2: 336	Initial	Initial	Kan. St.
14. James P.: 322	Utah	Baylor	Baylor
15. Jonathan J.: 321	Kan. St.	Wisconsin	Wisconsin
17. Dave M.: 311	Kan. St.	Kan. St.	Kan. St.
18. Peter F.: 310	Wisconsin	Wisconsin	Wisconsin
20. Brian K.: 300	Initial	Va. Tech	Va. Tech
21. Hutch H.: 299	Kan. St.	Kan. St.	Kan. St.
22. Klei R.: 284	Baylor	Baylor	Baylor
23. Mason A.: 281	Initial	Initial	Initial
25. Pete J. #3: 263	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
27. Andrzej #1: 258	Initial	Initial	Va. Tech
28. Andrzej #2: 256	Initial	Initial	Kan. St.
29. Michelle L. #1: 255	Fla. St.	Fla. St.	Baylor
30. Josiah T. #2: 252	Ga. St.	Wisconsin	Wisconsin
31. Dylan B.: 238	Initial	Initial	Utah
32. Scott Herd. #1: 235	Ga. St.	Utah	Utah
32. Emily T.: 235	Initial	Initial	Va. Tech
34. Mike W.: 233	Initial	Initial	Initial
35. Ryan W.: 227	Ga. St.	Utah	Utah
36. Scott Has. #2: 224	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
37. Jaxon S.: 222	Va. Tech	Kan. St.	Kan. St.
38. Ryan G.: 220	Initial	Initial	Initial
39. Scott Has. #1: 212	Initial	Initial	Initial
41. Dan Du.: 208	Initial	Initial	Initial
42. Josiah T. #3: 207	Initial	Initial	Initial
43. Michelle L. #2: 205	Baylor	Baylor	Baylor
44. Damien R. #2: 204	Initial	Initial	Initial
45. Greg McE. - ESPN: 201	Initial	Initial	Utah
46. Brad R.: 199	Va. Tech	Va. Tech	Va. Tech
48. Max W. #2: 194	Va. Tech	Initial	Utah
49. Shawn M.: 189	Initial	Initial	Initial
50. Jay H. #1: 178	Initial	Initial	Initial
51. Nikki W.: 174	Initial	Va. Tech	Va. Tech
52. Andrew D.: 171	Initial	Initial	Initial
53. Jay H. #2: 168	Initial	Fla. St.	Fla. St.
54. Max A. #1: 163	Va. Tech	Va. Tech	Va. Tech
55. Matt M.: 159	Kan. St.	Kan. St.	Ga. St.
56. Max W. #1: 148	Initial	Initial	Initial
57. Nick B.: 142	Michigan	Auburn	Michigan
58. Tim N.: 133	Initial	Initial	Initial
59. Cory R.: 123	Initial	Initial	Initial
60. Dustin B.: 100	Utah	Michigan	Michigan
61. Steve Dz.: 98	Initial	Initial	Initial
62. Becky H.: 91	Va. Tech	Va. Tech	Va. Tech
63. Kirt R.: 44	Fla. St.	Kan. St.	Kan. St.
64. Ally H.: 31	Initial	Initial	Initial
65. Nichole W.: 28	Initial	Initial	Initial
66. Jason S.: -3	Initial	Initial	Initial
67. Damien R. #1: -26	Initial	Initial	Va. Tech
68. Rich P.: -47	Initial	Initial	Initial

Things start to settle down tomorrow, with only 2 games.  After that we are down to one game a day, which I really like.  I don’t understand why bowls don’t schedule more this way.  These otherwise meaningless bowls get the entire college football watching audience.  It’s a total win.  Plus, it makes my job easier, which is really the subtext here.  Here are the single-game eliminations for tomorrow:

Birmingham Bowl

If Boston College wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brent S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brett W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Bryan G. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Josiah T. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

If Cincinnati wins:

Bryan G. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Marc R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Max A. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Mike S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Mike Smith is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Taxslayer Bowl

If Tennessee Wins:

Brett W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Bryan G. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Josiah T. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Matt N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Mike S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Mike Smith is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

If Indiana wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Brent S. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Harrell R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Max A. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Mike Smith is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Interesting that Mike Smith will be knocked out of at least one payout place regardless of the outcome of the game.  As we get fewer games, the more likely stuff like this will happen.  There are fewer possible combinations of points, so people may only qualify for 1^st, but not 2^nd or 3^rd.

As for me, I am rooting for any outcome that doesn’t involve a tiebreaker.  As of right now, there’s a 10/64 chance we will need one for 3^rd place.  I hate tiebreakers, so I hope those scenarios don’t happen.  I also hope that the Championship game means something.  It’s entirely possible that it won’t.  Surprisingly, one person that picked Ohio State to win it all is still alive.  I guess that’s just the way this pool is set up.  30 points isn’t that much when compared to the 820 points available outside of the Championship game (3.53%).  In the March Madness pool, the final game is worth 16.7%, so you almost have to pick that one correctly to win.

All right, I’m still sick, so I’m hoping tomorrow is better than today.  Good luck to the people that are left alive!!!