5 games to go edition

 Good morning.  I’m kind of glad there is a break in the Bowl schedule.  It lets me relax after the last few days of 4-5 games each.  Despite there not being that many people left, there was quite a shake-up in the standings as Georgia survived a very close game last night.  Going into the national Semi-Final games, Michelle L. had around an 80% chance of finishing in the money.  Then, she wound up losing both games.  Her chances are still pretty good at 53.13%, but currently, her best chance is to get 3^rd.  The big winner was Eric K., who got both games right.  As a result, his chances of winning something are now at 90.63%.  It’s entirely possible, he’ll clinch one of the 3 spots by mid-day tomorrow.  Then again, that’s why they play the games.

Here are the points totals so far:

1. Michelle L.: 598 (-216)

2. Eric K.: 567 (-178)

3. Jim W.: 552 (-230)

4. Mark B.: 551 (-241)

5. CAAT 3: 542 (-218)

6. Otis L.: 541 (-290)

7. CAAT 5: 539 (-221)

8. Scott H. #2: 539 (-231)

9. Emily T.: 537 (-231)

10. Paul K.: 536 (-239)

11. Pete J. #1: 533 (-294)

12. Matt M.: 532 (-218)

13. Rich F.: 532 (-270)

14. Brian K.: 525 (-266)

15. Ally H.: 523 (-255)

16. CAAT 1: 521 (-239)

17. Scott H. #1: 519 (-263)

18. Steve D.: 517 (-270)

19. Hurley 357: 515 (-264)

20. Mike N.: 515 (-272)

21. Andrew Du.: 513 (-249)

22. Adam E.: 513 (-257)

23. Larry G.: 513 (-266)

24. Hutch H.: 512 (-269)

25. Pete J. #2: 510 (-317)

26. Marc R. #2: 509 (-305)

27. Dan E.: 508 (-266)

28. Matt N.: 508 (-294)

29. Dylan B.: 507 (-261)

30. Kylar G.: 506 (-304)

31. Marc R. #1: 503 (-236)

32. Harrell R. #2: 500 (-292)

33. Harrell R. #1: 498 (-294)

34. Kylee T.: 491 (-291)

35. Quinn 1130: 491 (-322)

36. Brent E. #2: 485 (-286)

37. CAAT 4: 481 (-296)

38. Jay H. #1: 473 (-303)

38. Jay H. #2: 473 (-303)

40. Mike W.: 470 (-272)

41. Dave M.: 468 (-310)

42. Ryan W.: 467 (-301)

43. CAAT 2: 462 (-298)

44. Brad R.: 454 (-295)

45. Dan D.: 454 (-327)

46. Brent E. #1: 447 (-324)

47. Grant F.: 447 (-326)

48. Josiah T.: 441 (-333)

49. Brett G.: 440 (-340)

50. Hero R.: 439 (-350)

51. Tim N.: 437 (-294)

52. Vincent W.: 427 (-361)

53. Mason A.: 424 (-311)

54. Mike S.: 424 (-331)

55. Fr. Guido S. #1: 419 (-341)

56. Dustin B.: 415 (-353)

57. Brett W.: 404 (-355)

58. Fr. Guido S. #2: 392 (-391)

59. Peter F.: 388 (-364)

60. Baily T.: 365 (-401)

61. Miela 314: 356 (-417)

62. Becky H.: 344 (-403)

63. Klei R.: 319 (-435)

64. Jason S.: 287 (-457)

65. Christa M.: 277 (-435)

66. Dennis R.: 262 (-503)

…and the matrix

Ranking	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
2. Eric K.: 567 (-178) (Georgia)	64.0625%	17.1875%	9.3750%
1. Michelle L.: 598 (-216) (Michigan)	17.1875%	9.3750%	26.5625%
7. CAAT 5: 539 (-221) (TCU)	12.5000%	23.4375%	7.8125%
3. Jim W.: 552 (-230) (Georgia)	Michigan	12.5000%	12.5000%
5. CAAT 3: 542 (-218) (Georgia)	Michigan	15.6250%	7.8125%
12. Matt M.: 532 (-218) (Georgia)	Kentucky	3.1250%	12.5000%
9. Emily T.: 537 (-231) (Georgia)	3.1250%	4.6875%	3.1250%
4. Mark B.: 551 (-241) (Ohio State)	Ohio St.	3.1250%	6.2500%
10. Paul K.: 536 (-239) (Georgia)	3.1250%	3.1250%	3.1250%
15. Ally H.: 523 (-255) (Georgia)	Clemson	1.5625%	4.6875%
31. Marc R. #1: 503 (-236) (Georgia)	Michigan	3.1250%	3.1250%
18. Steve D.: 517 (-270) (TCU)	Kanas St.	3.1250%	3.1250%
22. Adam E.: 513 (-257) (Ohio State)	Michigan	Ohio St.	Ohio St.
21. Andrew Du.: 513 (-249) (Georgia)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Michigan
60. Baily T.: 365 (-401) (Georgia)	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
62. Becky H.: 344 (-403) (Michigan)	Initial	Initial	Initial
44. Brad R.: 454 (-295) (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Oklahoma
46. Brent E. #1: 447 (-324) (Georgia)	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Texas
36. Brent E. #2: 485 (-286) (Michigan)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Michigan
49. Brett G.: 440 (-340) (Georgia)	Initial	UCLA	So. Car.
57. Brett W.: 404 (-355) (Georgia)	So. Car.	So. Car.	So. Car.
14. Brian K.: 525 (-266) (Georgia)	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
16. CAAT 1: 521 (-239) (Georgia)	Initial	Clemson	Kentucky
43. CAAT 2: 462 (-298) (Georgia)	Initial	Syracuse	Texas
37. CAAT 4: 481 (-296) (Georgia)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kanas St.
65. Christa M.: 277 (-435) (Georgia)	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
45. Dan D.: 454 (-327) (Ohio State)	Wyoming	Wyoming	Wyoming
27. Dan E.: 508 (-266) (Georgia)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kentucky
41. Dave M.: 468 (-310) (Georgia)	Texas	UCLA	UCLA
66. Dennis R.: 262 (-503) (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
56. Dustin B.: 415 (-353) (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
29. Dylan B.: 507 (-261) (Michigan)	Clemson	Kanas St.	Michigan
55. Fr. Guido S. #1: 419 (-341) (Michigan)	Oklahoma	UCLA	UCLA
58. Fr. Guido S. #2: 392 (-391) (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
47. Grant F.: 447 (-326) (Georgia)	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
33. Harrell R. #1: 498 (-294) (Georgia)	Texas	NC State	UCLA
32. Harrell R. #2: 500 (-292) (Georgia)	UCLA	UCLA	So. Car.
50. Hero R.: 439 (-350) (TCU)	Clemson	So. Car.	Clemson
19. Hurley 357: 515 (-264) (Georgia)	Texas	Texas	NC State
24. Hutch H.: 512 (-269) (Georgia)	Initial	Texas	Texas
64. Jason S.: 287 (-457) (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
38. Jay H. #1: 473 (-303) (Georgia)	NC State	So. Car.	So. Car.
38. Jay H. #2: 473 (-303) (Georgia)	NC State	So. Car.	So. Car.
48. Josiah T.: 441 (-333) (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
63. Klei R.: 319 (-435) (Michigan)	Oklahoma	NC State	NC State
30. Kylar G.: 506 (-304) (Georgia)	Syracuse	Syracuse	Oklahoma
34. Kylee T.: 491 (-291) (Georgia)	Kentucky	Wyoming	Kentucky
23. Larry G.: 513 (-266) (Georgia)	UCLA	Wyoming	Wyoming
26. Marc R. #2: 509 (-305) (Georgia)	Initial	NC State	UCLA
53. Mason A.: 424 (-311) (Georgia)	So. Car.	So. Car.	So. Car.
28. Matt N.: 508 (-294) (Georgia)	Initial	Syracuse	Oklahoma
61. Miela 314: 356 (-417) (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
20. Mike N.: 515 (-272) (Ohio State)	So. Car.	Clemson	Ohio St.
54. Mike S.: 424 (-331) (Georgia)	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
40. Mike W.: 470 (-272) (Ohio State)	Kentucky	Michigan	Ohio St.
6. Otis L.: 541 (-290) (Ohio State)	Ohio St.	Ohio St.	Ohio St.
11. Pete J. #1: 533 (-294) (Michigan)	Kentucky	Michigan	Michigan
25. Pete J. #2: 510 (-317) (Georgia)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kanas St.
59. Peter F.: 388 (-364) (Georgia)	Wyoming	UCLA	Wyoming
35. Quinn 1130: 491 (-322) (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Texas
13. Rich F.: 532 (-270) (Georgia)	UCLA	Clemson	Clemson
42. Ryan W.: 467 (-301) (Georgia)	Initial	Clemson	Clemson
17. Scott H. #1: 519 (-263) (Georgia)	UCLA	Clemson	Clemson
8. Scott H. #2: 539 (-231) (Michigan)	Clemson	Michigan	Michigan
51. Tim N.: 437 (-294) (Michigan)	Wyoming	Michigan	Clemson
52. Vincent W.: 427 (-361) (Michigan)	Clemson	Kentucky	Michigan

Like yesterday, tomorrow looks like it will be a 2-1-1 format, so let’s look at the first two games at the same time:

ReliaQuest Bowl

Vegas Line: Pick ‘Em

Median Pick: Mississippi State for 8.5

Picks for Illinois: 21 (average pick: 14.29 points)

Picks for Mississippi State: 45 (average pick: 18.00)

Eliminations if Mississippi State wins:

	Pick	Points
Ally H. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Mississippi State	18
Emily T. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Mississippi State	13
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Illinois	3
Mark B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Mississippi State	1
Paul K. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Mississippi State	2
Steve D. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Illinois	18

Eliminations if Illinois wins:

	Pick	Points
CAAT 3 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Mississippi State	24
Emily T. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	Mississippi State	13
Matt M. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Mississippi State	37

Citrus Bowl

Vegas Line: LSU -14.5

Median Pick: LSU for 27

Picks for LSU: 59 (average pick: 31.85 points)

Picks for Purdue: 7 (average pick: 12.14 points)

Eliminations if LSU wins:

	Pick	Points
Ally H. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	LSU	15
Emily T. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	LSU	39
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	LSU	41
Paul K. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	LSU	21
Steve D. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	LSU	35

Eliminations if Purdue wins:

	Pick	Points
Emily T. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	LSU	39
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	LSU	41
Mark B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	LSU	40
Matt M. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.	LSU	41
Paul K. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	LSU	21
Steve D. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	LSU	35

You know we are getting really close to the end when you start seeing eliminations like this.  For example, Marc R. #1 is going to get eliminated from 3^rd place contention if LSU wins, despite picking LSU for the most points possible.  The reason for a lot of these strange options is that there are a lot fewer possible outcomes.  So, while getting the 41 points would eliminate him from 3^rd place, not getting those points eliminates him from 2^nd.  I think you also see that in the fact that Emily T. is going to be eliminated from some place regardless of the outcome of either game.

Anyway, there’s still a lot to be decided.  If one of these games winds up producing a winner, I’ll put that in the eliminations section.  There isn’t anything like that currently, but there are only 3 games left after these 2, so it’s possible something will be decided before the last game.

Good luck!!!!!