The Bowl Pool chaos Semi-final edition.

 I was watching the first quarter of the Fiesta Bowl, and TCU picked off a pass and scored a TD.  I turned to my wife and said, “I don’t know if TCU is going to win, but if you are a 7+ point underdog, that kind of play probably has to happen”.  Sure enough, TCU pulls off a huge upset.  Also, I kinda think it was targeting on the last play and the refs chickened out calling it.  Not sure it would have made a difference, but it looked like targeting to me.

If you remember the last update, the overwhelming favorite to win the pool was Michelle L.  She had Michigan winning the championship, so her chances took a pretty big hit.  She also had a pretty big lead, so it wasn’t a deadly hit.  She is now worse than a coin flip chance to win the whole thing.  She still has a 75% chance to win something, but a lot of her chances shifted from 1^st place to 2^nd.  The big winner was Eric K., who has been lurking around pretty low in the points, but pretty high in the net all pool long.  He got 21 for TCU, so he vaults all the way up to about a 1/3 chance.

Here are the points:

1. Michelle L.: 598 (-207)

2. Mark B.: 551 (-226)

3. Otis L.: 541 (-280)

4. Jim W.: 534 (-230)

5. Emily T.: 533 (-231)

6. Eric K.: 527 (-178)

7. Scott H. #2: 515 (-231)

8. Mike N.: 515 (-268)

9. Adam E.: 513 (-248)

10. CAAT 3: 509 (-218)

11. Matt M.: 508 (-218)

12. CAAT 5: 506 (-221)

13. Hutch H.: 506 (-269)

14. Rich F.: 506 (-270)

15. Paul K.: 504 (-239)

16. Pete J. #1: 502 (-294)

17. Scott H. #1: 501 (-263)

18. Brian K.: 498 (-266)

19. Kylar G.: 491 (-304)

20. Ally H.: 490 (-255)

21. CAAT 1: 488 (-239)

22. Larry G.: 488 (-266)

23. Andrew Du.: 482 (-249)

24. Dylan B.: 480 (-261)

25. Pete J. #2: 479 (-317)

26. Steve D.: 477 (-270)

27. Marc R. #2: 475 (-305)

28. Hurley 357: 474 (-264)

29. Mike W.: 470 (-247)

30. Marc R. #1: 469 (-236)

31. Dan E.: 469 (-266)

32. Harrell R. #2: 468 (-292)

33. Matt N.: 467 (-294)

34. Harrell R. #1: 466 (-294)

35. Brent E. #2: 462 (-286)

36. Kylee T.: 455 (-291)

37. Dan D.: 454 (-315)

38. Ryan W.: 451 (-301)

39. Quinn 1130: 451 (-322)

40. CAAT 4: 448 (-296)

41. Jay H. #1: 442 (-303)

41. Jay H. #2: 442 (-303)

43. Brad R.: 437 (-295)

44. Hero R.: 432 (-350)

45. CAAT 2: 429 (-298)

46. Dave M.: 427 (-310)

47. Vincent W.: 427 (-326)

48. Brent E. #1: 424 (-324)

49. Fr. Guido S. #1: 419 (-340)

50. Grant F.: 417 (-326)

51. Dustin B.: 411 (-353)

52. Brett G.: 410 (-340)

53. Josiah T.: 405 (-333)

54. Tim N.: 402 (-294)

55. Mason A.: 394 (-311)

56. Mike S.: 391 (-331)

57. Fr. Guido S. #2: 391 (-391)

58. Brett W.: 379 (-355)

59. Peter F.: 363 (-364)

60. Becky H.: 326 (-403)

61. Baily T.: 324 (-401)

62. Miela 314: 315 (-417)

63. Klei R.: 304 (-435)

64. Jason S.: 248 (-457)

65. Christa M.: 243 (-435)

66. Dennis R.: 232 (-503)

…and the matrix:

Ranking	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place
1. Michelle L.: 391 (Michigan)	40.6250%	17.9688%	16.4063%
2. Eric K.: 349 (Georgia)	32.0313%	15.6250%	7.0313%
3. Mark B.: 325 (Ohio State)	15.6250%	17.1875%	8.5938%
8. CAAT 5: 285 (TCU)	6.2500%	15.6250%	12.5000%
4. Jim W.: 304 (Georgia)	Michigan	7.8125%	7.8125%
12. Otis L.: 261 (Ohio State)	2.3438%	5.4688%	6.2500%
5. Emily T.: 302 (Georgia)	1.5625%	2.3438%	9.3750%
10. Adam E.: 265 (Ohio State)	Michigan	3.1250%	8.5938%
6. CAAT 3: 291 (Georgia)	Michigan	7.8125%	3.9063%
7. Matt M.: 290 (Georgia)	Kentucky	1.5625%	6.2500%
22. Mike W.: 223 (Ohio State)	Kentucky	Michigan	4.6875%
10. Paul K.: 265 (Georgia)	1.5625%	1.5625%	1.5625%
18. Ally H.: 235 (Georgia)	Clemson	0.7813%	2.3438%
19. Marc R. #1: 233 (Georgia)	Michigan	1.5625%	1.5625%
27. Steve D.: 207 (TCU)	Kanas St.	1.5625%	1.5625%
14. Mike N.: 247 (Ohio State)	So. Car.	Clemson	1.5625%
19. Andrew Du.: 233 (Georgia)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Michigan
60. Baily T.: -77 (Georgia)	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
60. Becky H.: -77 (Michigan)	Initial	Initial	Initial
39. Brad R.: 142 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Oklahoma
48. Brent E. #1: 100 (Georgia)	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Texas
30. Brent E. #2: 176 (Michigan)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Michigan
54. Brett G.: 70 (Georgia)	Initial	UCLA	So. Car.
57. Brett W.: 24 (Georgia)	So. Car.	So. Car.	So. Car.
21. Brian K.: 232 (Georgia)	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
13. CAAT 1: 249 (Georgia)	Initial	Clemson	Kentucky
43. CAAT 2: 131 (Georgia)	Initial	Syracuse	Texas
37. CAAT 4: 152 (Georgia)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kanas St.
64. Christa M.: -192 (Georgia)	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
40. Dan D.: 139 (Ohio State)	Wyoming	Wyoming	Wyoming
28. Dan E.: 203 (Georgia)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kentucky
45. Dave M.: 117 (Georgia)	Texas	UCLA	UCLA
66. Dennis R.: -271 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
56. Dustin B.: 58 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
24. Dylan B.: 219 (Michigan)	Clemson	Kanas St.	Michigan
52. Fr. Guido S. #1: 79 (Michigan)	Oklahoma	UCLA	UCLA
58. Fr. Guido S. #2: 0 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
49. Grant F.: 91 (Georgia)	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
33. Harrell R. #1: 172 (Georgia)	Texas	NC State	UCLA
30. Harrell R. #2: 176 (Georgia)	UCLA	UCLA	So. Car.
51. Hero R.: 82 (TCU)	Clemson	So. Car.	Clemson
25. Hurley 357: 210 (Georgia)	Texas	Texas	NC State
16. Hutch H.: 237 (Georgia)	Initial	Texas	Texas
65. Jason S.: -209 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
40. Jay H. #1: 139 (Georgia)	NC State	So. Car.	So. Car.
40. Jay H. #2: 139 (Georgia)	NC State	So. Car.	So. Car.
53. Josiah T.: 72 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
63. Klei R.: -131 (Michigan)	Oklahoma	NC State	NC State
29. Kylar G.: 187 (Georgia)	Syracuse	Syracuse	Oklahoma
35. Kylee T.: 164 (Georgia)	Kentucky	Wyoming	Kentucky
23. Larry G.: 222 (Georgia)	UCLA	Wyoming	Wyoming
34. Marc R. #2: 170 (Georgia)	Initial	NC State	UCLA
50. Mason A.: 83 (Georgia)	So. Car.	So. Car.	So. Car.
32. Matt N.: 173 (Georgia)	Initial	Syracuse	Oklahoma
62. Miela 314: -102 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Initial
55. Mike S.: 60 (Georgia)	Syracuse	Syracuse	Texas
26. Pete J. #1: 208 (Michigan)	Kentucky	Michigan	Michigan
36. Pete J. #2: 162 (Georgia)	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kanas St.
59. Peter F.: -1 (Georgia)	Wyoming	UCLA	Wyoming
44. Quinn 1130: 129 (Georgia)	Initial	Initial	Texas
17. Rich F.: 236 (Georgia)	UCLA	Clemson	Clemson
38. Ryan W.: 150 (Georgia)	Initial	Clemson	Clemson
15. Scott H. #1: 238 (Georgia)	UCLA	Clemson	Clemson
9. Scott H. #2: 284 (Michigan)	Clemson	Michigan	Michigan
46. Tim N.: 108 (Michigan)	Wyoming	Michigan	Clemson
47. Vincent W.: 101 (Michigan)	Clemson	Kentucky	Michigan

Here are the stats on the last game of the night:

Vegas Line: Georgia -6.5

Median Pick: Georgia for 30 points

Picks for Georgia: 57 (average pick: 28.11 points)

Picks for Ohio State: 9 (average pick: 13.33 points)

Eliminations if Georgia Wins:

	Pick	Points
Adam E. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Ohio State	9
Mark B. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Ohio State	15
Mike N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.	Ohio State	4
Mike W. is eliminated from 33rd place contention.	Ohio State	25
Otis L. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Ohio State	10

Eliminations if Ohio State Wins:

	Pick	Points
Ally H. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Georgia	33
CAAT 3 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Georgia	33
CAAT 5 is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Georgia	33
Emily T. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.	Georgia	4
Eric K. is eliminated from 1st place contention.	Georgia	40
Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Georgia	34
Matt M. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Georgia	24
Paul K. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Georgia	32
Steve D. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.	Georgia	40

OK, so I went to Georgia Tech for 2 years, so I always say “To Hell With Georgia”.  I kind of want to see them lose just because of the chaos it would cause, not because I have any particular love for Ohio State.