Before Alamo Bowl

I skipped the second game of the day, but no one was eliminated in the first one, and the second one only culled one sheet.  That sheet belonged to Dan D.  That means we are down to 3 people that can win the whole thing and 5 that can get second.

Here are the current probabilities for 1st place:

1. Klei R. (62.5%)

2. Brent E. #1 (31.25%)

3. Michelle L. #2 (6.25%)

...and the probabilities for 2nd:

1. Michelle L. #1 (37.5%)

2. Brent E. #1 (18.75%)

2. Michelle L. #2 (18.75%)

4. Klei R. (12.5%)

4. Dustin B. (12.5%)

Unfortunately for those of us that chose TCU before the pool began, the next game looks a little assured given that their Heisman trophy finalist QB is no longer playing.  Such are the perils of the pool, I guess.  Here are the eliminations in the Alamo Bowl:

If Oregon Wins:

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention (Oregon for 3)

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention (TCU for 4)

If TCU Wins:

Dustin B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention (Oregon for 33)

Klei R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention (TCU for 5)

For Brent E. #1 and Klei R, depending on the outcome of this game, one of us will be eliminated from 2nd place contention, but still very much alive for 1st place.

Good luck!!!!!

After 1/1 games

I actually watched part of this last game, but I really didn't need to.  As a matter of fact, you could have been excused from watching any of the games today.  The closest game of the day was a 16 point win for Ohio State.  Those are some pretty heavy duty blowouts.

As a result, there are now only 6 people left alive for 2 payouts, so everyone left has a decent chance to make the money.   Here are the probabilities for 1st place:

1. Klei R. (65.625%)

2. Brent E. #1 (26.5625%)

3. Dan D. (6.25%)

4. Michelle L. #2 (1.5625%)

It turns out that virtually none of the 4 games tomorrow matter for me, since I would win if Clemson wins the National Championship game regardless of anything else.  I guess there are ways I could win if Alabama wins, but a combination of other things would also have to happen.  Then again, there are 4 games, and who knows what will happen.

Here are the probabilities for 2nd place:

1. Michelle L. #1 (37.5%)

2. Klei R. (18.75%)

2. Brent E. #1 (18.75%)

4. Dustin B. (12.5%)

5. Dan D. (6.25%)

5. Michelle L. #2 (6.25%)

Here are the overall point totals:

1. Klei R.: 622 (-161)

2. Brent E. #1: 598 (-194)

3. Michelle L. #2: 576 (-199)

4. Michelle L. #1: 569 (-195)

5. Brent E. #2: 560 (-202)

6. Dan D.: 552 (-218)

7. Matt N.: 549 (-233)

8. Jim W.: 549 (-285)

9. Pete J. #2: 548 (-227)

10. Brad R.: 548 (-303)

12. Marc R. #2: 541 (-230)

11. Scott H. #2: 541 (-218)

13. Brent S. #2: 540 (-234)

14. Craig G.: 528 (-265)

15. Jay H. #1: 527 (-235)

16. Mike W.: 526 (-251)

17. Marc R. #1: 524 (-239)

18. Dustin B.: 523 (-197)

19. Mike S. #2: 513 (-256)

20. Dave M.: 509 (-261)

21. Sally R.: 509 (-275)

22. Chris L.: 507 (-267)

23. Scott H. #1: 498 (-259)

24. Damien R. #1: 494 (-313)

25. Brent S. #1: 488 (-265)

26. Ray R.: 482 (-290)

27. Brett W.: 481 (-258)

28. Mike S. #1: 467 (-312)

29. Roth W. #1: 466 (-302)

30. Jay H. #3: 456 (-319)

32. Ryan W.: 444 (-324)

31. Ashley D.: 444 (-321)

33. Becky H.: 443 (-333)

34. Adam E.: 435 (-344)

35. Pete J. #1: 431 (-344)

36. Dylan B.: 426 (-291)

37. James R.: 421 (-371)

38. Damien R. #2: 420 (-295)

39. Roth W. #2: 416 (-287)

40. Mindi W.: 394 (-377)

41. Nichole W.: 388 (-392)

42. Ally H.: 359 (-399)

43. Jay H. #2: 351 (-352)

44. Tim N.: 317 (-434)

As I mentioned, there are 4 more games tomorrow.  As there are only 6 people left, there probably aren't a ton of eliminations to be had, but we will see.  The day starts off  with the TaxSlayer Bowl.  Here are the eliminations:

If Georgia Wins:

No one is eliminated.

If Penn State Wins:

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place (Georgia for 32)

That's it.  So this game doesn't seem like it's going to decide much.  You can watch it if you want.  I'm more than likely going to watch a movie or something.

Good luck!!!!!!

Post Rose Bowl Post

By the time I sent out the last post, it was already 28-0 in the Rose Bowl, so I'm glad I watched a movie and went out for dinner instead of wasting my time with it.  Good news for those that picked Stanford, as it was an easy victory.  Sweating games out kinda sucks, and really it's almost better (in my opinion) to lose a game like this than at the last second.

Anyway, we are down to only 10 sheets that are still alive for the top 2 spots, and 2 of them happen to be my wife (Michelle L.).  That's good because both my Mom and Dad were eliminated in that last game.  At least they have their side bet.

Here are the updated probabilities for 1st:

1. Klei R. (41.0156%)

2. Matt N. (19.5312%)

3. Brent E. #1 (14.0625%)

4. Michelle L. #1 (10.9375%)

5. Dan D. (4.6875%)

6. Scott H. #1 (1.5625%)

7. Michelle L. #2 (0.3906%)

...and for 2nd place:

1. Michelle L. #1 (31.25%)

2. Klei R. (18.75%)

3. Brent E. #1 (10.9375%)

4. Jay H. #1 (9.375%)

5. Dan D. (8.5937%)

6. Matt N. (7.8125%)

7. Dustin B. (6.25%)

8. Michelle L. #2 (3.125%)

8. Scott H. #1 (3.125%)

10. Marc R. #2 (0.7812%)

Here are the updated scores:

1. Klei R.: 581 (-161)

2. Michelle L. #1: 569 (-188)

3. Brent E. #1: 564 (-194)

4. Dan D.: 552 (-212)

5. Matt N.: 549 (-196)

6. Michelle L. #2: 546 (-199)

7. Brad R.: 543 (-303)

8. Marc R. #2: 541 (-210)

9. Jim W.: 540 (-285)

10. Jay H. #1: 527 (-206)

11. Brent E. #2: 526 (-202)

12. Marc R. #1: 524 (-214)

13. Scott H. #2: 520 (-218)

14. Mike W.: 519 (-251)

15. Pete J. #2: 510 (-227)

16. Craig G.: 505 (-265)

17. Brent S. #2: 503 (-234)

18. Scott H. #1: 498 (-238)

20. Sally R.: 495 (-275)

19. Chris L.: 495 (-267)

21. Mike S. #2: 494 (-256)

23. Damien R. #1: 490 (-313)

22. Dave M.: 490 (-261)

24. Brent S. #1: 487 (-265)

25. Dustin B.: 485 (-197)

26. Roth W. #1: 461 (-302)

27. Ray R.: 460 (-290)

28. Mike S. #1: 451 (-312)

29. Ashley D.: 444 (-282)

30. Ryan W.: 444 (-296)

31. Brett W.: 440 (-258)

32. Jay H. #3: 437 (-319)

33. Adam E.: 435 (-331)

34. Becky H.: 435 (-333)

35. Pete J. #1: 431 (-306)

36. James R.: 421 (-336)

37. Dylan B.: 403 (-291)

38. Mindi W.: 394 (-357)

39. Damien R. #2: 390 (-295)

40. Nichole W.: 388 (-381)

41. Roth W. #2: 379 (-287)

42. Ally H.: 359 (-392)

43. Jay H. #2: 351 (-315)

44. Tim N.: 317 (-409)

There's still another game left tonight, so here are the eliminations:

If Mississippi Wins:

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place (Oklahoma State for 29)

Marc R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place (Oklahoma State for 20)

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place (Oklahoma State for 37)

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place (Oklahoma State for 7)

Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place (Oklahoma State for 21)

If Oklahoma State Wins:

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st place (Mississippi for 34) Dustin B. is eliminated from 2nd place (Mississippi for 38)

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st  & 2nd place (Mississippi for 30)

That's a lot of big numbers next to those elimination names, so it looks things could get pretty interesting however this game turns out.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!!