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I always say you need to take some chances if you are going
to win this pool, and I think today may have been a key turning point in
determining who survives to take 1st, 2nd & 3rd. There were some pretty wild swings in the
standings throughout the day, but none quite as big as the Alamo Bowl, where an
unheralded Texas team more or less dismantled Utah. Anyone who got points out that game not only
gained those points, but avoided some pretty big losses. The median pick for that game was Utah for 28
points. It just so turns out that Jim W.
was the most confident person in the pool for this game, taking Texas for 24
points, giving him about a 50 point edge over the field.
Here are the updated points standings:
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1.
Jim W.: 493 (-73)
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2.
Brett W.: 491 (-143)
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3.
Grant F.: 490 (-117)
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4.
Peter F.: 488 (-182)
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5.
Josiah T. #1: 485 (-135)
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6.
Pete J. #1: 484 (-124)
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7.
James P.: 481 (-228)
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8.
Mike N.: 480 (-149)
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9.
Scott Herd. #2: 480 (-151)
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10.
Harrell R. #2: 470 (-111)
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11.
Klei R.: 469 (-173)
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12.
Harrell R. #1: 461 (-120)
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13.
Pete J. #2: 460 (-148)
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14.
Matt N.: 459 (-174)
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15.
Mike S.: 452 (-163)
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16.
Hutch H.: 447 (-162)
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17.
Ben W.: 445 (-158)
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18.
Brent S.: 445 (-177)
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19.
Scott Has. #2: 443 (-219)
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20.
Max A. #1: 438 (-301)
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21.
Michelle L. #1: 437 (-159)
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22.
Marc R.: 436 (-151)
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23.
Max W. #2: 435 (-243)
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24.
Jonathan J.: 434 (-118)
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25.
Dylan B.: 434 (-203)
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26.
Andrzej #1: 434 (-212)
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27.
Josiah T. #2: 433 (-162)
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28.
Mason A.: 433 (-185)
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29.
Scott Herd. #1: 433 (-205)
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30.
Andrzej #2: 433 (-213)
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31.
Brian K.: 432 (-196)
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32.
Dave M.: 431 (-159)
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33.
Andrew D.: 429 (-296)
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34.
Adam E.: 423 (-157)
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35.
Mike Smith: 422 (-148)
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36.
Pete J. #3: 422 (-186)
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37.
Josiah T. #3: 419 (-237)
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38.
Ryan G.: 415 (-210)
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39.
Scott Has. #1: 414 (-228)
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40.
Shawn M.: 412 (-265)
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41.
Greg McE. - ESPN: 410 (-207)
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42.
Mike W.: 404 (-185)
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43.
Michelle L. #2: 401 (-216)
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44.
Ryan W.: 395 (-170)
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45.
Bryan G.: 392 (-179)
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46.
Tim N.: 388 (-251)
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47.
Ally H.: 387 (-316)
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48.
Damien R. #2: 382 (-214)
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49.
Emily T.: 381 (-206)
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50.
Jay H. #2: 380 (-219)
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51.
Brad R.: 380 (-249)
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52.
Nikki W.: 372 (-267)
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53.
Jay H. #1: 370 (-199)
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54.
Dustin B.: 364 (-208)
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55.
Becky H.: 363 (-254)
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56.
Cory R.: 359 (-271)
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57.
Matt M.: 358 (-196)
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58.
Jaxon S.: 351 (-257)
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59.
Max W. #1: 349 (-208)
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60.
Max A. #2: 340 (-201)
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61.
Dan Du.: 331 (-265)
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62.
Jason S.: 329 (-378)
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63.
Steve Dz.: 327 (-309)
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64.
Rich P.: 325 (-334)
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65.
Nick B.: 317 (-179)
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66.
Damien R. #1: 312 (-339)
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67.
Nichole W.: 299 (-260)
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68.
Kirt R.: 299 (-319)
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…and here’s the updated elimination matrix:
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Entry
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1st Place
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2nd Place
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3rd Place
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1. Jim W.: 420 (LSU)
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52.93%
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16.36%
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8.94%
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2. Grant F.: 373 (LSU)
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8.98%
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17.72%
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9.90%
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4. Harrell R. #2: 359 (LSU)
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Utah
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10.34%
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15.35%
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6. Brett W.: 348 (LSU)
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5.22%
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6.20%
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9.03%
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3. Pete J. #1: 360 (LSU)
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Utah
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8.20%
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11.17%
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5. Josiah T. #1: 350 (LSU)
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0.05%
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10.35%
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7.05%
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8. Mike N.: 331 (Ohio State)
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6.10%
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4.88%
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6.18%
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20. Mike Smith: 274 (Clemson)
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8.06%
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5.18%
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3.32%
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16. Marc R.: 285 (Clemson)
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5.03%
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4.00%
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3.35%
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13. Klei R.: 296 (Clemson)
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2.69%
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3.30%
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4.57%
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36. Bryan G.: 213 (Clemson)
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3.91%
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3.32%
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2.15%
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24. Adam E.: 266 (Clemson)
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3.17%
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2.69%
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2.98%
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27. Pete J. #3: 236 (Clemson)
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1.27%
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2.98%
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2.33%
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23. Brent S.: 268 (LSU)
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0.59%
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2.05%
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1.86%
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10. Jonathan J.: 316 (LSU)
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Kan. St.
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0.29%
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3.26%
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12. Peter F.: 306 (Ohio State)
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0.39%
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0.54%
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1.71%
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22. Josiah T. #2: 271 (Clemson)
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Ga. St.
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0.57%
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1.25%
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52. Nick B.: 138 (LSU)
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1.17%
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0.10%
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0.44%
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32. Scott Has. #2: 224 (LSU)
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0.39%
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0.29%
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0.44%
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7. Harrell R. #1: 341 (LSU)
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Initial
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Utah
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1.04%
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41. Michelle L. #2: 185 (Clemson)
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0.05%
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0.20%
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0.68%
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16. Matt N.: 285 (Clemson)
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Va. Tech
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Fla. St.
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0.91%
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19. Michelle L. #1: 278 (LSU)
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Fla. St.
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Fla. St.
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0.78%
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48. Dustin B.: 156 (Ohio State)
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Utah
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0.20%
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0.44%
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11. Pete J. #2: 312 (LSU)
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Initial
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Kan. St.
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0.39%
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51. Max A. #2: 139 (Clemson)
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Kan. St.
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0.15%
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0.20%
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25. James P.: 253 (LSU)
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Utah
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0.10%
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0.20%
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14. Mike S.: 289 (LSU)
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Utah
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Utah
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0.10%
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9. Scott Herd. #2: 329 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Kan. St.
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15. Ben W.: 287 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Va. Tech
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16. Hutch H.: 285 (LSU)
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Kan. St.
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Kan. St.
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Kan. St.
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21. Dave M.: 272 (LSU)
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Kan. St.
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Kan. St.
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Kan. St.
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26. Mason A.: 248 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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27. Brian K.: 236 (LSU)
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Initial
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Va. Tech
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Va. Tech
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29. Dylan B.: 231 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Utah
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30. Scott Herd. #1: 228 (LSU)
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Ga. St.
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Utah
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Utah
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31.
Ryan W.: 225 (LSU)
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Ga. St.
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Utah
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Utah
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33. Andrzej #1: 222 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Va. Tech
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34. Andrzej #2: 220 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Kan. St.
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35. Mike W.: 219 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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37. Ryan G.: 205 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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38. Greg McE. - ESPN: 203 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Utah
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39. Max W. #2: 192 (LSU)
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Va. Tech
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Initial
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Utah
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40. Scott Has. #1: 186 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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42. Josiah T. #3: 182 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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43. Emily T.: 175 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Va. Tech
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44. Jay H. #1: 171 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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45. Damien R. #2: 168 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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46. Matt M.: 162 (Clemson)
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Kan. St.
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Kan. St.
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Ga. St.
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47. Jay H. #2: 161 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Fla. St.
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Fla. St.
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49. Shawn M.: 147 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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50. Max W. #1: 141 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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53. Max A. #1: 137 (Clemson)
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Va. Tech
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Va. Tech
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Va. Tech
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53. Tim N.: 137 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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55. Andrew D.: 133 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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56. Brad R.: 131 (LSU)
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Va. Tech
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Va. Tech
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Va. Tech
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57. Becky H.: 109 (LSU)
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Va. Tech
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Va. Tech
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Va. Tech
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58. Nikki W.: 105 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Va. Tech
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Va. Tech
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59. Jaxon S.: 94 (LSU)
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Va. Tech
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Kan. St.
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Kan. St.
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60. Cory R.: 88 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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61. Ally H.: 71 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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62. Dan Du.: 66 (Clemson)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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63.
Nichole W.: 39 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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64. Steve Dz.: 18 (Oklahoma)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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65. Rich P.: -9 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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66. Kirt R.: -20 (Clemson)
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Fla. St.
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Kan. St.
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Kan. St.
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67. Damien R. #1: -27 (LSU)
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Initial
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Initial
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Va. Tech
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68. Jason S.: -49 (Ohio State)
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Initial
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Initial
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Initial
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I sorted this by descending total odds of winning
anything. The ranking # is the net point
ranking. Remember that the probability
listed is the probability of winning that place, assuming every game is a coin
toss.
As you can see, Jim W. now has >50% chance to win this
pool as of right now. That could change
with games tomorrow, but this is obviously a fantastic place to be. No one else has even a 10% chance. I’m also pretty sure that had Texas lost, Jim
W. would have been eliminated. Bet big,
win big, right?
Anyway, there are 4 more games tomorrow. Here are the single game eliminations for
those:
Outback Bowl
If Auburn wins:
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Adam E. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
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Dustin B. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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James P. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Max A. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Mike S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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Pete J. #3 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention.
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Peter F. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
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Scott Has. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention.
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If Minnesota wins:
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Josiah T. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
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Nick B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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Citrus Bowl:
If Michigan wins:
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James P. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Jonathan J. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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Josiah T. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
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Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place
contention.
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Mike S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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If Alabama wins:
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Dustin B. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Max A. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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Nick B. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Pete J. #3 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention.
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Scott Has. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention.
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Rose Bowl
If Wisconsin wins:
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Brent S. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.
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James P. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Josiah T. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
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Klei R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
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Max A. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
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Mike S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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Nick B. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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If Oregon wins:
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Dustin B. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Jonathan J. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Josiah T. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Peter F. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Scott Has. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
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Sugar Bowl
If Baylor wins:
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Jonathan J. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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Matt N. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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Max A. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Mike S. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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Nick B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.
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Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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Peter F. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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If Georgia wins:
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Adam E. is eliminated from 1st place contention.
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Dustin B. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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James P. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Josiah T. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.
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Josiah T. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.
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Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.
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Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention.
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Scott Has. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place
contention.
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That’s all the single game eliminations. Remember that a combination of games can also
knock you out if no single game does, so come back tomorrow and I’ll have a
complete matrix. More than half the
field is completely out of this pool by now, so if you still have a chance,
congratulations! You made the last 28.
I’m still sick, so I’m going to have another fantastic drug-induced
sleep and hope I feel better tomorrow.
Good luck everyone!!!!!
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