pre-Rose Bowl Update

I managed to get home right before kickoff of the Rose Bowl.  Based on the scores, it didn't appear that many of the games were worth staying in for, so I think I made the right choice.

I had the eliminations in yesterday's post about the Outback Bowl, so I won't review those.  However, since there was another game going on at the same time, the combination of Northwestern & Florida losing knocked some other people out.  Here were the eliminations after the Citrus Bowl:

Brad R. (1st)

Jay H. #1 (1st)

Marc R. #1 (2nd)

Everyone else survived that game intact.  But wait, there was another game after that.  Here are the eliminations after Notre Dame lost:

Nothing

Yes, if you were alive before that game, you are still alive.  That tells me that that game was largely irrelevant, except in maybe some shakeups in the standings.

Here are the updated probabilities for 1st place:

1. Klei R. (41.0156%)

2. Matt N. (19.5312%)

3. Brent E. #1 (14.0625%)

4. Michelle L. #1 (10.9375%)

5. Dan D. (4.6875%)

6. Pete J. #2 (3.125%)

7. Sally R. (2.3437%)

7. Ashley D. (2.3437%)

9. Scott H. #1 (1.5625%)

10. Michelle L. #2 (0.3906%)

...and the updated probabilities for 2nd place:

1. Michelle L. #1 (20.3125%)

2. Klei R. (16.7968%)

3. Brent E. #1 (12.8906%)

4. Jay H. #1 (11.7187%)

5. Matt N. (9.7656%)

6. Dan D. (6.6406%)

7. Dustin B. (5.4687%)

8. Pete J. #2 (4.6875%)

9. Michelle L. #2 (3.5156%)

10. Sally R. (2.3437%)

10. Scott H. #1 (2.3437%)

12. Ashley D. (1.5625%)

12. Brad R. (1.5625%)

14. Marc R. #2 (0.3906%)

For those interested, here are the updated points:

1. Klei R.: 551 (-161)

2. Brent E. #1: 543 (-194)

3. Brad R.: 543 (-297)

4. Matt N.: 539 (-196)

5. Michelle L. #1: 534 (-188)

6. Michelle L. #2: 517 (-199)

7. Dan D.: 514 (-212)

8. Jim W.: 514 (-285)

9. Jay H. #1: 511 (-206)

10. Marc R. #2: 511 (-210)

11. Pete J. #2: 510 (-206)

12. Brent E. #2: 505 (-202)

13. Mike W.: 502 (-251)

14. Sally R.: 495 (-242)

15. Mike S. #2: 494 (-254)

16. Marc R. #1: 487 (-214)

17. Scott H. #2: 480 (-218)

18. Chris L.: 479 (-267)

19. Damien R. #1: 479 (-313)

20. Scott H. #1: 478 (-238)

21. Dave M.: 474 (-261)

22. Craig G.: 472 (-265)

23. Brent S. #2: 464 (-234)

24. Ray R.: 460 (-288)

25. Dustin B.: 457 (-197)

26. Brent S. #1: 448 (-265)

27. Roth W. #1: 448 (-302)

28. Mike S. #1: 446 (-312)

29. Ashley D.: 444 (-253)

30. Adam E.: 435 (-316)

31. Brett W.: 426 (-258)

32. James R.: 421 (-320)

33. Jay H. #3: 413 (-319)

34. Pete J. #1: 410 (-306)

35. Becky H.: 408 (-333)

36. Ryan W.: 407 (-296)

37. Mindi W.: 394 (-332)

38. Nichole W.: 379 (-381)

39. Dylan B.: 373 (-291)

40. Ally H.: 359 (-377)

41. Damien R. #2: 353 (-295)

42. Jay H. #2: 351 (-279)

43. Roth W. #2: 343 (-287)

44. Tim N.: 293 (-409)

Notice that Brad R. has finally relinquished his lead after being ahead for pretty much the entire time.  He also was knocked out of 1st place contention at the same time, so if the goal was to have bragging rights for the longest possible time, I'd say that was: "Mission Accomplished".

Here are the eliminations for the Rose Bowl:

If Stanford Wins:

Ashley D. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Iowa for 29) Brad R. is eliminated for 2nd place contention (Iowa for 6)

Pete J. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Iowa for 21)

Sally R. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Iowa for 33)

If Iowa Wins:

Dan D. is eliminated from 1st place contention (Stanford for 38) Marc R. #2 is eliminated for 2nd place contention (Stanford for 30)

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention (Stanford for 29)

Good luck everyone!!!!!!