After Cotton Bowl

Another three games down the tubes, and this last one was good for about 35 minutes.  Then the rout was on.  This one took down a lot of sheets, so now there are only 17 people alive that can win any of the two payouts.  There's a lot to get to, so let's start with the overall probabilities of winning this thing:

1. Klei R. (36.8652%)

2. Jay H. #1 (17.2363%)

3. Ashley D. (9.6191%)

4. Sally R. (8.0566%)

5. Dan D. (7.7148%)

6. Matt N. (6.9824%)

7. Brent E. #1 (4.5898%)

8. Pete J. #2 (2.6367%)

8. Michelle L. #1 (2.6367%)

10. Scott H. #1 (2.0507%)

11. Brad R. (0.9765%)

12. Brett W. (0.4394%)

13. Marc R. #2 (0.0976%)

13. Michelle L. #2 (0.0976%)

I had Alabama for 40 points, which helped out quite a bit.  I was also a little surprised to see Ashley D. this high in the standings.  She has been a little under the radar so far in this pool, but she still has a lot of points available and could really make a run for one of the top 2 spots.

Here are the probabilities for 2nd place:

1. Klei R. (13.5253%)

2. Jay H. #1 (13.1673%)

3. Michelle L. #1 (11.7513%)

4. Brent E. #1 (10.0097%)

5. Ashley D. (8.4472%)

6. Dan D. (8.3984%)

7. Sally R. (8.1054%)

8. Matt N. (7.2591%)

9. Brad R. (6.4941%)

10. Pete J. #2 (5.1269%)

11. Scott H. #1 (3.0761%)

12. Michelle L. #2 (1.3671%)

12. Dustin B. (1.3671%)

14. Marc R. #2 (1.0253%)

15. Brett W. (0.6347%)

16. Damien R. #2 (0.1953%)

17. Marc R. #1 (0.0488%)

...and the overall point totals:

1. Brad R.: 528 (-288)

2. Klei R.: 486 (-158)

3. Jay H. #1: 473 (-183)

4. Brent E. #1: 467 (-194)

5. Sally R.: 460 (-204)

6. Dan D.: 457 (-193)

7. Matt N.: 455 (-196)

8. Marc R. #2: 455 (-210)

9. Pete J. #2: 450 (-206)

10. Michelle L. #1: 448 (-188)

11. Damien R. #1: 444 (-293)

12. Ashley D.: 441 (-216)

13. Jim W.: 439 (-285)

14. Michelle L. #2: 435 (-199)

15. Marc R. #1: 432 (-214)

16. Mike S. #2: 430 (-254)

17. Brent E. #2: 429 (-202)

18. Mike W.: 427 (-251)

19. Craig G.: 424 (-256)

20. Scott H. #1: 414 (-219)

21. Dave M.: 409 (-261)

22. Ray R.: 403 (-278)

23. Roth W. #1: 402 (-302)

24. Mike S. #1: 400 (-289)

25. Chris L.: 399 (-267)

26. Jay H. #3: 388 (-284)

27. Scott H. #2: 384 (-218)

28. Brent S. #1: 376 (-265)

29. Brett W.: 370 (-222)

30. Brent S. #2: 369 (-234)

31. Becky H.: 360 (-295)

32. Adam E.: 359 (-316)

33. Dustin B.: 358 (-197)

34. Ryan W.: 355 (-283)

35. Pete J. #1: 350 (-306)

36. James R.: 333 (-320)

37. Mindi W.: 324 (-296)

38. Damien R. #2: 314 (-235)

39. Nichole W.: 309 (-345)

40. Ally H.: 300 (-369)

41. Tim N.: 293 (-343)

42. Jay H. #2: 282 (-246)

43. Dylan B.: 276 (-291)

44. Roth W. #2: 241 (-287)

I got a whole lot of really cool hiking stuff for Christmas that I am itching to use tomorrow, so I'm going to be out most of the morning.  Unfortunately for me, there are 5 games tomorrow as well.  I'll give a rundown of the first three, since they all pretty much go off at the same time anyway.  The last two are later in the day, so I will probably be home to give updates for those.

Here's the eliminations for the Outback Bowl

If Tennessee Wins:

Brett W. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention (Northwestern for 36) Damien R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place (Northwestern for 28)

Marc R. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention (Tennessee for 13)

If Northwestern Wins:

Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place (Tennessee for 20)

Matt N. is eliminated from 1st place contention (Tennessee for 38)

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention  (Tennessee for 36)

   

Here is the pick distributions:

Tennessee: 26 (average pick = 26.00)

Northwestern: 18 (average pick = 21.50)

Median Pick:  Tennessee for 12.5

For the Citrus Bowl

If Michigan Wins:

Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place  (Michigan for 3)

If Florida Wins:

Damien R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place  (Michigan for 39)

Marc R. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention  (Michigan for 6)

Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention  (Michigan for 20)

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention  (Michigan for 20)

The pick distributions are:

Michigan: 39 (average pick = 25.28)

Florida: 5 (average pick = 16.80)

Median pick:  Michigan for 25

...and finally the Fiesta Bowl

If Notre Dame wins:

Brett W. is eliminated from 1st place contention  (Ohio State for 39)

Marc R. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention  (Ohio State for 37)

If Ohio State wins:

Damien R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place  (Notre Dame for 32)

Marc R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place  (Ohio State for 32)

The pick distributions are:

Ohio State: 38 (average pick = 27.74)

Notre Dame: 6 (average pick = 16.67)

Median pick: Ohio State for 26

A few interesting things about the eliminations tomorrow.  The first thing is that in order for Marc R.  #1 to stay alive for 2nd place, he needs to essentially lose 32 points.  He also needs to lose 3 points for Michigan to stay alive.  When your chances to win 2nd place are about 1/20 of 1 percent, you need some pretty strange stuff to go your way to win, and that's where you get some of this strange stuff.

It also looks like there aren't many eliminations for any particular game tomorrow, and that's true.  One thing to remember is that these games aren't being played in a vacuum, so even if one individual game doesn't knock you out, a combination of the 3 games could.  I didn't want to go through all 8 permutations of the 3 games, so I'll provide a review of who got eliminated after the first 3 games are complete.

That's it so far.  There are 5 games tomorrow, so a lot more people will be knocked out.  If you are still alive at this point, good luck to you.  It should be an interesting blood bath.

Good luck and Happy New Year!!!!!