Short update while I prepare for Christmas

 Hello again, everyone.  I hope you enjoyed your 2 football games of the day.  I didn’t watch any of the Independence Bowl, although the highlights make me think that maybe I should have.  I watched a little of the Gasparilla Bowl, but since I was pulling for Missouri, I kind of phased it out in the second half.  Still, games were played and points were won and lost, so I am back in front of my computer again tonight to tell you all about it.

Last time we had only 2 games in one day, I think we more or less averaged 1/2 across the board.  Today, we did a little better.  I guess that may be expected after two straight upsets.  Both favorites won today, and we averaged 1.36 wins per entry today.  If you were going to move up in the standings today, you were going to do it by wagering more points as opposed to picking upsets.  That’s the way it goes sometimes, and that’s also why it’s so hard to navigate this pool.

The big winner of the day was Kylar G., who amassed an amazing 70 points and land himself in the top 10 in both points and net.  Great job there.  The unlucky winner was Ryan W., who also went 2/2, but only got 5 points for his fantastic picking.  The lucky loser of the day was Baily T., who went 0/2, but only lost 15 points.

OK: Here are the points standings:

1. Michelle L.: 310 (-73)

2. Mark B.: 277 (-76)

3. Hutch H.: 276 (-94)

4. Steve D.: 272 (-68)

5. Marc R. #2: 270 (-126)

6. Jim W.: 266 (-110)

7. Harrell R. #1: 264 (-80)

8. Rich F.: 263 (-85)

9. Kylar G.: 262 (-71)

10. Kylee T.: 262 (-81)

11. CAAT 3: 261 (-12)

12. Pete J. #1: 255 (-85)

13. Harrell R. #2: 255 (-89)

14. Otis L.: 252 (-89)

15. Dylan B.: 249 (-117)

16. Andrew Du.: 248 (-61)

17. Mike S.: 248 (-132)

18. Brad R.: 243 (-54)

19. Scott H. #2: 243 (-81)

20. CAAT 1: 240 (-33)

20. CAAT 5: 240 (-33)

22. Larry G.: 238 (-89)

23. CAAT 4: 233 (-33)

24. Scott H. #1: 233 (-105)

25. Dan E.: 228 (-23)

26. Jay H. #1: 228 (-70)

26. Jay H. #2: 228 (-70)

28. Hero R.: 228 (-104)

29. Grant F.: 228 (-135)

30. Matt N.: 227 (-107)

31. Matt M.: 227 (-108)

32. Mike N.: 224 (-54)

33. Brian K.: 221 (-99)

34. Mike W.: 219 (-54)

35. CAAT 2: 218 (-76)

36. Hurley 357: 218 (-78)

37. Pete J. #2: 218 (-122)

38. Dave M.: 212 (-126)

39. Marc R. #1: 204 (-33)

40. Josiah T.: 201 (-85)

41. Brett G.: 200 (-92)

42. Paul K.: 191 (-84)

43. Ally H.: 188 (-127)

44. Ryan W.: 180 (-71)

45. Emily T.: 180 (-100)

46. Dan D.: 178 (-67)

47. Eric K.: 178 (-83)

48. Adam E.: 176 (-83)

49. Miela 314: 176 (-160)

50. Brett W.: 173 (-77)

51. Fr. Guido S. #2: 172 (-96)

52. Klei R.: 150 (-136)

53. Fr. Guido S. #1: 149 (-119)

54. Mason A.: 147 (-92)

55. Becky H.: 136 (-176)

56. Brent E. #2: 128 (-85)

57. Dustin B.: 118 (-176)

58. Peter F.: 117 (-99)

59. Vincent W.: 116 (-208)

60. Quinn 1130: 97 (-170)

61. Baily T.: 93 (-90)

62. Brent E. #1: 93 (-120)

63. Jason S.: 86 (-94)

64. Tim N.: 85 (-35)

65. Dennis R.: 83 (-160)

66. Christa M.: 70 (-65)

…and the net points standings:

1. CAAT 3: 249

2. Michelle L.: 237

3. CAAT 1: 207

3. CAAT 5: 207

5. Dan E.: 205

6. Steve D.: 204

7. Mark B.: 201

8. CAAT 4: 200

9. Kylar G.: 191

10. Brad R.: 189

11. Andrew Du.: 187

12. Harrell R. #1: 184

13. Hutch H.: 182

14. Kylee T.: 181

15. Rich F.: 178

16. Marc R. #1: 171

17. Pete J. #1: 170

17. Mike N.: 170

19. Harrell R. #2: 166

20. Mike W.: 165

21. Otis L.: 163

22. Scott H. #2: 162

23. Jay H. #1: 158

23. Jay H. #2: 158

25. Jim W.: 156

26. Larry G.: 149

27. Marc R. #2: 144

28. CAAT 2: 142

29. Hurley 357: 140

30. Dylan B.: 132

31. Scott H. #1: 128

32. Hero R.: 124

33. Brian K.: 122

34. Matt N.: 120

35. Matt M.: 119

36. Mike S.: 116

36. Josiah T.: 116

38. Dan D.: 111

39. Ryan W.: 109

40. Brett G.: 108

41. Paul K.: 107

42. Pete J. #2: 96

42. Brett W.: 96

44. Eric K.: 95

45. Grant F.: 93

45. Adam E.: 93

47. Dave M.: 86

48. Emily T.: 80

49. Fr. Guido S. #2: 76

50. Ally H.: 61

51. Mason A.: 55

52. Tim N.: 50

53. Brent E. #2: 43

54. Fr. Guido S. #1: 30

55. Peter F.: 18

56. Miela 314: 16

57. Klei R.: 14

58. Christa M.: 5

59. Baily T.: 3

60. Jason S.: -8

61. Brent E. #1: -27

62. Becky H.: -40

63. Dustin B.: -58

64. Quinn 1130: -73

65. Dennis R.: -77

66. Vincent W.: -92

It’s starting to look a little like a two-person race between CAAT 3 and Michelle L., but there are a lot of people within striking distance – and we’ve only played 15 games out of a total of 41.

Only one game tomorrow, which is good because 1) It’s one of my alma maters and 2) I still need to wrap presents and go look at Christmas lights.  It looks like the game will be on smack dab in the middle of all that.

Hawaii Bowl

Vegas Line: San Diego State -6.5

Median Pick: San Diego State for 17.5 points

Picks for San Diego State: 49 (average pick: 22.39 points)

Picks for Middle Tennessee State: 17 (average pick: 15.71 points)

  

So, the way this pool has grown over the years is that friends of friends have invited other people, and it’s kind of swept across the country to the point where I don’t really know where a lot of you live.  But, it got it’s origins where I live and my group of friends in San Diego, so I am going to pay extra close attention to this one – and I hope that they blow out Middle Tennessee to the point where it’s over at half time.  Go Aztecs!!!!

Good lukc everyone – Except Blue Raiders fans.

Advice from Littlefinger edition

 “Chaos isn’t a pit.  Chaos is a ladder.  Many who try to climb it fail and never get to try again.  The fall breaks them.  And some are given a chance to climb, and they refuse…. Only the ladder is real.  The climb is all there is.”

I’m guessing a bunch of you know this quote.  It may be a little heavy-handed and over the top to apply to a NCAA football confident pool, but it’s a great quote, and it kind of applies.  The people that will do good in the pool will take advantage of days like today.  If anyone ever asks me what the secret is to winning a pool like this, I say 2 things.  The first is a tautology, which is whatever strategy results in your winning, that was the right one.  My second piece of advice is that you have to pick some upsets, and those upsets probably have to hit.  The trick there is not to pick too many or you lose out on easy points, or too few, so that someone more daring makes up too much ground on you.  It’s very hard to determine what the balance is, but that’s what makes it fun.

With that backdrop, it’s probably not hard to figure out what happened today.  Air Force beat Baylor.  I had a suspicion they would when I saw the line movement within the week, but they still had to actually play the game.  If you recall, I was calling yesterday’s game the upset of the pool so far.  Well, today’s far surpasses it as far as the pool goes.  On paper, it wasn’t that big of an upset (3.5 point spread), but in the pool, it was huge.  Only 11.33% of the points wagered on this game were won.  Baylor had the 15th most points wagered on it, while Air Force was only 73rd.  Baylor has the most points lost on it, and Air Force has the fewest points won on it so far.

The points standings don’t change much because not many people actually got points, but the net points changed quite a bit.

1. CAAT 3: 253 (-12)

2. Michelle L.: 251 (-73)

3. Mark B.: 248 (-67)

4. Hutch H.: 237 (-94)

5. Marc R. #2: 237 (-110)

6. Kylee T.: 234 (-76)

7. Rich F.: 234 (-85)

8. CAAT 5: 232 (-33)

9. Jim W.: 232 (-94)

10. Grant F.: 228 (-116)

11. Steve D.: 222 (-68)

12. Harrell R. #1: 222 (-80)

13. Andrew Du.: 220 (-61)

14. Harrell R. #2: 219 (-83)

15. Mike S.: 217 (-132)

16. Pete J. #1: 214 (-85)

17. CAAT 1: 212 (-33)

18. CAAT 2: 212 (-69)

19. Scott H. #2: 210 (-54)

20. Brian K.: 206 (-94)

21. Matt N.: 206 (-103)

22. CAAT 4: 205 (-33)

23. Dylan B.: 202 (-117)

24. Larry G.: 201 (-89)

25. Otis L.: 198 (-89)

26. Matt M.: 198 (-95)

27. Scott H. #1: 197 (-90)

28. Mike N.: 194 (-54)

29. Pete J. #2: 193 (-106)

30. Kylar G.: 192 (-71)

31. Dan E.: 191 (-23)

32. Brett G.: 184 (-81)

33. Hurley 357: 179 (-56)

34. Dave M.: 179 (-117)

35. Paul K.: 178 (-84)

36. Brad R.: 176 (-54)

37. Eric K.: 176 (-68)

38. Miela 314: 176 (-94)

39. Ryan W.: 175 (-71)

40. Josiah T.: 174 (-85)

41. Jay H. #2: 172 (-70)

41. Jay H. #1: 172 (-70)

43. Marc R. #1: 171 (-23)

44. Mike W.: 171 (-54)

45. Hero R.: 165 (-104)

46. Emily T.: 152 (-100)

47. Dan D.: 149 (-32)

48. Fr. Guido S. #1: 149 (-83)

49. Adam E.: 147 (-68)

50. Brett W.: 142 (-66)

51. Klei R.: 139 (-96)

52. Fr. Guido S. #2: 136 (-96)

53. Ally H.: 127 (-127)

54. Dustin B.: 118 (-148)

55. Brent E. #2: 116 (-79)

56. Becky H.: 116 (-144)

57. Vincent W.: 108 (-199)

58. Mason A.: 105 (-92)

59. Quinn 1130: 97 (-138)

60. Baily T.: 93 (-75)

61. Jason S.: 86 (-61)

62. Peter F.: 84 (-99)

63. Brent E. #1: 75 (-120)

64. Tim N.: 73 (-22)

65. Christa M.: 70 (-49)

66. Dennis R.: 58 (-144)

…net points:

1. CAAT 3: 241

2. CAAT 5: 199

3. Mark B.: 181

4. CAAT 1: 179

5. Michelle L.: 178

6. CAAT 4: 172

7. Dan E.: 168

8. Andrew Du.: 159

9. Kylee T.: 158

10. Scott H. #2: 156

11. Steve D.: 154

12. Rich F.: 149

13. Marc R. #1: 148

14. Hutch H.: 143

14. CAAT 2: 143

16. Harrell R. #1: 142

17. Mike N.: 140

18. Jim W.: 138

19. Harrell R. #2: 136

20. Pete J. #1: 129

21. Marc R. #2: 127

22. Hurley 357: 123

23. Brad R.: 122

24. Kylar G.: 121

25. Mike W.: 117

25. Dan D.: 117

27. Grant F.: 112

27. Brian K.: 112

27. Larry G.: 112

30. Otis L.: 109

31. Eric K.: 108

32. Scott H. #1: 107

33. Ryan W.: 104

34. Matt N.: 103

34. Matt M.: 103

34. Brett G.: 103

37. Jay H. #2: 102

37. Jay H. #1: 102

39. Paul K.: 94

40. Josiah T.: 89

41. Pete J. #2: 87

42. Mike S.: 85

42. Dylan B.: 85

44. Miela 314: 82

45. Adam E.: 79

46. Brett W.: 76

47. Fr. Guido S. #1: 66

48. Dave M.: 62

49. Hero R.: 61

50. Emily T.: 52

51. Tim N.: 51

52. Klei R.: 43

53. Fr. Guido S. #2: 40

54. Brent E. #2: 37

55. Jason S.: 25

56. Christa M.: 21

57. Baily T.: 18

58. Mason A.: 13

59. Ally H.: 0

60. Peter F.: -15

61. Becky H.: -28

62. Dustin B.: -30

63. Quinn 1130: -41

64. Brent E. #1: -45

65. Dennis R.: -86

66. Vincent W.: -91

The big winner of the day looks to be CAAT 3, who broke ranks with the rest of the CAAT family and took Air Force for 21 points.  That puts them 42 net points clear of 2nd place right now.  A lot of games to go, but that’s a good start.

Two games tomorrow:

Independence Bowl

Vegas Line: Houston -7

Median Pick: Houston for 22

Picks for Houston: 53 (Average points: 22.96)

Picks for Louisiana: 13 (Average points: 14.31)

 

Based on the distribution, this game looks to be about the same as today’s game.  The big difference is that between the start of Bowl season and now, the spread has stayed pretty much where it is now.  Makes me thing that Houston aught to cruise.  Then again, that’s why they play the game.  I know I say this every year, but the Rajun’ Cajuns are a great nickname for a football team.  I feel like I root for them for the name alone.

Gasparilla Bowl

Vegas Line: Wake Forest -2.5

Median Pick: Wake Forest for 2 points

Picks for Wake Forest: 37 (average points: 16.95)

Picks for Missouri: 29 (average points: 15.24)

Every year, I’ve been making the same lame joke about not knowing what a “Gasparilla” is.  Well, this bowl game has been around enough now for me to know that it’s some kind of pirate-themed boat parade.  Why that deserves to have a football game named after it, who knows?  But, the answer to all your sports-related questions is “money”.  Someone put up the money, so a bowl game appears.  I would be twmpted to say that the distribution of picks around this game is almost uniform.  That makes sense given how close people seem to think it’s going to be.  For my money, I went hard on Missouri, so that bar you see way out in the tail on the Missouri side?  That’s me.  I’m trying to use Missouri as my next rung.

Good luck everybody!!!!

Biggest Upset of the season edition

 Well, that took long enough.  I forgot to turn on the game tonight, and I swear that by the time I checked the score, it was 31-3 at halftime.  I think that was maybe 7:00.  It is now about 10:00 and the game just got over.  I’m sure that my timing is all off there, but I swear there was more than enough time between when I first checked the score and when I last did for the second half of a blowout to be played.  Apparently not in college football.  This game lasted 4+ hours as far as I can tell.  As someone that waits until the games go final before updating anything, this is particularly excruciating.  People complain about how slow baseball is.  At least it can sometimes finish a game in 2.5 hours.

Finish, it inevitably did, and if, like me, you only saw the sore at half time, you probably know how this one turned out.  Western Kentucky beat the stuffing out of South Alabama.  That means we were 1/1 on upsets today.  Woo Hoo!!!  It also means the standings are a little more jumbled up.  If that wasn’t enough, this marks the biggest upset of the pool so far.  South Alabama had the 24th most points wagered on it, beating out San Jose State for team with the most points wagered on it to lose.  That’s great!  Let’s keep up the chaos.

Here are the points standings:

1. Michelle L.: 251 (-42)

2. Mark B.: 248 (-43)

3. Hutch H.: 237 (-68)

4. Kylee T.: 234 (-44)

5. Rich F.: 234 (-62)

6. CAAT 3: 232 (-12)

6. CAAT 5: 232 (-12)

8. Jim W.: 232 (-59)

9. Grant F.: 228 (-87)

10. Steve D.: 222 (-55)

11. Harrell R. #1: 222 (-56)

12. Andrew Du.: 220 (-43)

13. Marc R. #2: 220 (-110)

14. Harrell R. #2: 219 (-59)

15. Mike S.: 217 (-114)

16. Pete J. #1: 214 (-57)

17. CAAT 1: 212 (-12)

18. CAAT 2: 212 (-48)

19. Scott H. #2: 210 (-26)

20. Brian K.: 206 (-63)

21. Matt N.: 206 (-83)

22. CAAT 4: 205 (-12)

23. Dylan B.: 202 (-83)

24. Larry G.: 201 (-55)

25. Otis L.: 198 (-49)

26. Matt M.: 198 (-74)

27. Scott H. #1: 197 (-69)

28. Mike N.: 194 (-24)

29. Pete J. #2: 193 (-78)

30. Kylar G.: 192 (-70)

31. Dan E.: 188 (-23)

32. Hurley 357: 179 (-54)

33. Dave M.: 179 (-85)

34. Paul K.: 178 (-67)

35. Eric K.: 176 (-40)

36. Brad R.: 176 (-48)

37. Josiah T.: 174 (-55)

38. Jay H. #2: 172 (-34)

38. Jay H. #1: 172 (-34)

40. Mike W.: 171 (-34)

41. Ryan W.: 166 (-71)

42. Hero R.: 165 (-96)

43. Marc R. #1: 162 (-23)

44. Brett G.: 161 (-81)

45. Emily T.: 152 (-63)

46. Fr. Guido S. #1: 149 (-72)

47. Miela 314: 149 (-94)

48. Adam E.: 147 (-44)

49. Brett W.: 142 (-46)

50. Klei R.: 139 (-78)

51. Fr. Guido S. #2: 136 (-85)

52. Ally H.: 127 (-88)

53. Dan D.: 126 (-32)

54. Dustin B.: 118 (-111)

55. Brent E. #2: 116 (-52)

56. Becky H.: 116 (-107)

57. Vincent W.: 108 (-182)

58. Mason A.: 105 (-54)

59. Quinn 1130: 97 (-122)

60. Baily T.: 93 (-60)

61. Jason S.: 86 (-37)

62. Peter F.: 84 (-71)

63. Brent E. #1: 75 (-93)

64. Christa M.: 65 (-49)

65. Tim N.: 59 (-22)

66. Dennis R.: 38 (-144)

…and the net points standings:

1. CAAT 3: 220

1. CAAT 5: 220

3. Michelle L.: 209

4. Mark B.: 205

5. CAAT 1: 200

6. CAAT 4: 193

7. Kylee T.: 190

8. Scott H. #2: 184

9. Andrew Du.: 177

10. Jim W.: 173

11. Rich F.: 172

12. Mike N.: 170

13. Hutch H.: 169

14. Steve D.: 167

15. Harrell R. #1: 166

16. Dan E.: 165

17. CAAT 2: 164

18. Harrell R. #2: 160

19. Pete J. #1: 157

20. Otis L.: 149

21. Larry G.: 146

22. Brian K.: 143

23. Grant F.: 141

24. Marc R. #1: 139

25. Jay H. #2: 138

25. Jay H. #1: 138

27. Mike W.: 137

28. Eric K.: 136

29. Scott H. #1: 128

29. Brad R.: 128

31. Hurley 357: 125

32. Matt M.: 124

33. Matt N.: 123

34. Kylar G.: 122

35. Dylan B.: 119

35. Josiah T.: 119

37. Pete J. #2: 115

38. Paul K.: 111

39. Marc R. #2: 110

40. Mike S.: 103

40. Adam E.: 103

42. Brett W.: 96

43. Ryan W.: 95

44. Dave M.: 94

44. Dan D.: 94

46. Emily T.: 89

47. Brett G.: 80

48. Fr. Guido S. #1: 77

49. Hero R.: 69

50. Brent E. #2: 64

51. Klei R.: 61

52. Miela 314: 55

53. Fr. Guido S. #2: 51

53. Mason A.: 51

55. Jason S.: 49

56. Ally H.: 39

57. Tim N.: 37

58. Baily T.: 33

59. Christa M.: 16

60. Peter F.: 13

61. Becky H.: 9

62. Dustin B.: 7

63. Brent E. #1: -18

64. Quinn 1130: -25

65. Vincent W.: -74

66. Dennis R.: -106

For those scoring at home, this marks the first game all pool that the CAAT fleet of picks lost a game.  Until today, they were 11/11.  Not too bad….  Michelle L. has got 10/12 and no one else is in double digits yet.

Only one game tomorrow:

Armed Forces Bowl

Vegas Line: Baylor -3.5

Median Pick: Baylor for 21

Picks for Baylor: 55 (average pick: 24.33 points)

Picks for Air Force: 11 (average pick: 15.55 points)

 

Every year, in preparation for this pool (and also in order to pick games myself), I keep a record of the point spreads.  This one is strange.  When I logged it a week or so ago, Baylor was a 5.5 point favorite, which makes sense given the distribution that you see above.  It is now Baylor by 3.5.  That’s not an insignificant move, although I’d be more worried if it went to 2.5 (3.5 and 5.5 are in the strange nether region between a FG and a TD favorite).  Still, that’s quite a move, and one that hopefully means that people are going to have to sweat this one out.

That’s all I got for this one.  I’m not going to say too much about a 6-6 power conference team vs a 9-3 Mid-Major.  I will say that it seems like a bad omen for a service academy to lose in something called the Armed Forces Bowl.

Good Luck everyone!

MAC domination edition

 Everything came up MAC today.  My crazy plan to only pick MAC teams to win is finally paying dividends.  When I say dividends, I mean that I am slightly closer to the mid-point of the standings, so I need other parts of my crazy plan to actually win – but the MAC is living up to their end of the bargain, so far.

There were two games today, of which I watched maybe a grand total of 15 minutes combined.  The Potato Bowl looked to be just as miserable as I thought it would be.  Boca Raton was at least in a warmer part of the country and appeared to be the better game.  I wouldn’t know.  I only really looked at the final scores.

I’m not sure I mentioned this yesterday, but these games so far (with a few exceptions) have been more or less not worth much by way of points wagered.  For example, of the bottom 8 games in terms of points wagered, we’ve already played 6 – including both of today’s games.  I’m hoping that when the big points come out, so do the upsets.  We had one today between the two games, so that was nice.  Only 22.03% of points wagered in the Potato Bowl were won.

With that one upset, that means that we only had 15 people go 2/2.  The big winner on the day was my Dad, who took in 53 points across his two wins.  That’s great because I really hate to see my Dad in the lower reaches of the standings.  The unlucky winners of the day were the 5 CAAT entries, who also went 2/2, but only got 10 points respectively.  On the flip side, there were 14 people that went 0/2.  The lucky loser for the day was Baily T. who lost both games but only lost 9 points as a result.  That’s how it works.  Maximize wins, minimize losses.

As a group, we averaged 1.02 correct guesses today.  We averaged 14.55 points won and 15.48 points lost – so a net negative day on average.  That checks out.  Here are the standings on points alone:

1. Mark B.: 248 (-11)

2. Michelle L.: 238 (-42)

3. Hutch H.: 237 (-44)

4. Rich F.: 234 (-42)

5. CAAT 5: 232 (0)

5. CAAT 3: 232 (0)

7. Grant F.: 228 (-59)

8. Steve D.: 222 (-22)

9. Harrell R. #1: 222 (-46)

10. Andrew Du.: 220 (-9)

11. Jim W.: 220 (-59)

12. Kylee T.: 219 (-44)

13. Harrell R. #2: 219 (-49)

14. Mike S.: 217 (-82)

15. Pete J. #1: 213 (-57)

16. CAAT 1: 212 (0)

17. CAAT 2: 212 (-36)

18. Scott H. #2: 210 (-22)

19. Brian K.: 206 (-23)

20. CAAT 4: 205 (0)

21. Dylan B.: 202 (-51)

22. Marc R. #2: 202 (-110)

23. Larry G.: 201 (-34)

24. Otis L.: 198 (-38)

25. Matt M.: 198 (-41)

26. Scott H. #1: 197 (-49)

27. Matt N.: 194 (-83)

28. Pete J. #2: 193 (-77)

29. Kylar G.: 192 (-40)

30. Dan E.: 188 (-9)

31. Mike N.: 187 (-24)

32. Paul K.: 178 (-49)

33. Josiah T.: 174 (-38)

34. Mike W.: 171 (-28)

35. Ryan W.: 166 (-48)

36. Hero R.: 165 (-59)

37. Dave M.: 164 (-85)

38. Eric K.: 163 (-40)

39. Brad R.: 162 (-48)

40. Jay H. #1: 161 (-34)

40. Jay H. #2: 161 (-34)

42. Brett G.: 161 (-48)

43. Hurley 357: 155 (-54)

44. Marc R. #1: 154 (-23)

45. Emily T.: 152 (-46)

46. Fr. Guido S. #1: 149 (-47)

47. Miela 314: 149 (-80)

48. Adam E.: 144 (-44)

49. Brett W.: 142 (-33)

50. Fr. Guido S. #2: 136 (-60)

51. Dan D.: 123 (-32)

52. Klei R.: 119 (-78)

53. Dustin B.: 118 (-106)

54. Brent E. #2: 116 (-43)

55. Becky H.: 116 (-106)

56. Vincent W.: 108 (-153)

57. Mason A.: 100 (-54)

58. Ally H.: 98 (-88)

59. Quinn 1130: 97 (-89)

60. Baily T.: 93 (-54)

61. Peter F.: 84 (-67)

62. Jason S.: 77 (-37)

63. Brent E. #1: 75 (-84)

64. Christa M.: 65 (-46)

65. Tim N.: 59 (-7)

66. Dennis R.: 38 (-120)

…and the net points:

1. Mark B.: 237

2. CAAT 5: 232

2. CAAT 3: 232

4. CAAT 1: 212

5. Andrew Du.: 211

6. CAAT 4: 205

7. Steve D.: 200

8. Michelle L.: 196

9. Hutch H.: 193

10. Rich F.: 192

11. Scott H. #2: 188

12. Brian K.: 183

13. Dan E.: 179

14. Harrell R. #1: 176

14. CAAT 2: 176

16. Kylee T.: 175

17. Harrell R. #2: 170

18. Grant F.: 169

19. Larry G.: 167

20. Mike N.: 163

21. Jim W.: 161

22. Otis L.: 160

23. Matt M.: 157

24. Pete J. #1: 156

25. Kylar G.: 152

26. Dylan B.: 151

27. Scott H. #1: 148

28. Mike W.: 143

29. Josiah T.: 136

30. Mike S.: 135

31. Marc R. #1: 131

32. Paul K.: 129

33. Jay H. #1: 127

33. Jay H. #2: 127

35. Eric K.: 123

36. Ryan W.: 118

37. Pete J. #2: 116

38. Brad R.: 114

39. Brett G.: 113

40. Matt N.: 111

41. Brett W.: 109

42. Hero R.: 106

42. Emily T.: 106

44. Fr. Guido S. #1: 102

45. Hurley 357: 101

46. Adam E.: 100

47. Marc R. #2: 92

48. Dan D.: 91

49. Dave M.: 79

50. Fr. Guido S. #2: 76

51. Brent E. #2: 73

52. Miela 314: 69

53. Tim N.: 52

54. Mason A.: 46

55. Klei R.: 41

56. Jason S.: 40

57. Baily T.: 39

58. Christa M.: 19

59. Peter F.: 17

60. Dustin B.: 12

61. Becky H.: 10

61. Ally H.: 10

63. Quinn 1130: 8

64. Brent E. #1: -9

65. Vincent W.: -45

66. Dennis R.: -82

Back to one game tomorrow.

New Orleans Bowl

Vegas Line: South Alabama -4

Median Pick: South Alabama for 11.5 points

Picks for South Alabama: 46 (average points: 18.59)

Picks for Western Kentucky: 20 (average points: 12.15)

 

Based on the stats I put out earlier, you’d think there wouldn’t be this kind of distribution.  I am pretty surprised to see so many big picks for South Alabama.  This game has the 33rd most points wagered on it, but it has the 25th in the picks in the Top 10.  Maybe people know more than I do about this game.  I just kind of thought it was a generic game between directional mid-major schools.

Since there isn’t much more to way about this game.  I hope that there is an appearance by Toppy at the game.  Great mascot. Other than that, I have a small grip with ESPN.  When I go to the website, they have the times of the games in EST, except that that don’t say that anywhere and I don’t live in the Eastern time zone.  That is poor design.  I go elsewhere to get the time the game is going to be on in my local time zone.  It’s useful when there are multiple games in the same day.  Not a huge pet peeve, but an annoyance nonetheless.

As for me, I may watch some of this game.  I am off from work for the next week, so I am planning on doing a short hike tomorrow and then eat some pizza.  I should be back in plenty of time to watch some of the Jaguars / Hilltoppers.  My best guess is that I’ll have it on the iPad instead of the regular TV.  Good times.

Good luck everyone!

The "I predict this is the least read post of the pool" edition.

 Hey, did anyone at all “enjoy” today’s Bowl game?  No?  Here’s my analysis:  I turned the game on mid-way through the second quarter and it was 21-0.  I turned it off.  Turns out the game got to 28-0 before some late TDs by UConn.  I feel good about myself for missing 98% of that game.  Add to that the fact that virtually everyone picked the eventual winner, Marshall for a ton of points, the standings changed very little.  That’s why I am predicting that this specific post will be the least read of all the posts in the pool.

Here are the updated points standings.  Keen observers will notice that these standings look verrrrry much like yesterday’s:

1. Michelle L.: 230 (-14)

2. CAAT 3: 222 (0)

2. CAAT 5: 222 (0)

4. Rich F.: 212 (-24)

5. Hutch H.: 212 (-25)

6. Andrew Du.: 211 (-1)

7. CAAT 2: 209 (-14)

8. Jim W.: 207 (-23)

9. Pete J. #1: 203 (-31)

10. CAAT 1: 202 (0)

11. Marc R. #2: 202 (-71)

12. Larry G.: 201 (-5)

13. Grant F.: 201 (-34)

14. Steve D.: 200 (-5)

15. Matt M.: 198 (-19)

16. Harrell R. #1: 197 (-13)

17. Mark B.: 196 (-11)

18. CAAT 4: 195 (0)

19. Harrell R. #2: 194 (-16)

20. Pete J. #2: 193 (-41)

21. Kylar G.: 192 (-20)

22. Mike S.: 192 (-55)

23. Brian K.: 187 (-23)

24. Otis L.: 185 (-37)

25. Scott H. #2: 181 (-10)

26. Dylan B.: 178 (-31)

27. Kylee T.: 176 (-44)

28. Dan E.: 173 (-9)

29. Scott H. #1: 171 (-30)

30. Matt N.: 169 (-60)

31. Mike W.: 167 (-23)

32. Paul K.: 165 (-37)

33. Mike N.: 162 (-15)

34. Eric K.: 155 (-23)

35. Marc R. #1: 154 (-10)

36. Jay H. #1: 154 (-17)

36. Jay H. #2: 154 (-17)

38. Hurley 357: 154 (-27)

39. Ryan W.: 154 (-30)

40. Miela 314: 149 (-37)

41. Dave M.: 147 (-74)

42. Josiah T.: 145 (-31)

43. Brett W.: 142 (-17)

44. Brett G.: 141 (-43)

45. Adam E.: 138 (-23)

46. Fr. Guido S. #2: 136 (-35)

47. Emily T.: 124 (-22)

48. Fr. Guido S. #1: 124 (-47)

49. Hero R.: 122 (-59)

50. Dustin B.: 118 (-54)

51. Brent E. #2: 116 (-31)

52. Dan D.: 109 (-32)

53. Brad R.: 109 (-48)

54. Vincent W.: 108 (-126)

55. Becky H.: 107 (-75)

56. Mason A.: 100 (-38)

57. Baily T.: 93 (-45)

58. Quinn 1130: 91 (-61)

59. Klei R.: 76 (-78)

60. Jason S.: 70 (-29)

61. Brent E. #1: 70 (-77)

62. Peter F.: 69 (-55)

63. Christa M.: 64 (-44)

64. Ally H.: 54 (-88)

65. Tim N.: 42 (-7)

66. Dennis R.: 37 (-102)

…and the net points standings:

1. CAAT 3: 222

1. CAAT 5: 222

3. Michelle L.: 216

4. Andrew Du.: 210

5. CAAT 1: 202

6. Larry G.: 196

7. CAAT 2: 195

7. Steve D.: 195

7. CAAT 4: 195

10. Rich F.: 188

11. Hutch H.: 187

12. Mark B.: 185

13. Jim W.: 184

13. Harrell R. #1: 184

15. Matt M.: 179

16. Harrell R. #2: 178

17. Pete J. #1: 172

17. Kylar G.: 172

19. Scott H. #2: 171

20. Grant F.: 167

21. Brian K.: 164

21. Dan E.: 164

23. Pete J. #2: 152

24. Otis L.: 148

25. Dylan B.: 147

25. Mike N.: 147

27. Mike W.: 144

27. Marc R. #1: 144

29. Scott H. #1: 141

30. Mike S.: 137

30. Jay H. #1: 137

30. Jay H. #2: 137

33. Kylee T.: 132

33. Eric K.: 132

35. Marc R. #2: 131

36. Paul K.: 128

37. Hurley 357: 127

38. Brett W.: 125

39. Ryan W.: 124

40. Adam E.: 115

41. Josiah T.: 114

42. Miela 314: 112

43. Matt N.: 109

44. Emily T.: 102

45. Fr. Guido S. #2: 101

46. Brett G.: 98

47. Brent E. #2: 85

48. Fr. Guido S. #1: 77

48. Dan D.: 77

50. Dave M.: 73

51. Dustin B.: 64

52. Hero R.: 63

53. Mason A.: 62

54. Brad R.: 61

55. Baily T.: 48

56. Jason S.: 41

57. Tim N.: 35

58. Becky H.: 32

59. Quinn 1130: 30

60. Christa M.: 20

61. Peter F.: 14

62. Klei R.: -2

63. Brent E. #1: -7

64. Vincent W.: -18

65. Ally H.: -34

66. Dennis R.: -65

Two games tomorrow.  I can live with that.  I’ve been keeping track, and so far there have only been 2 upsets total in 9 games.  That’s pretty dismal.  On top of that, the biggest upset was only a 4 point underdog.  That stinks.  Now that I am a mile and a half out of the money, I am going to full on root for chaos to reign in college football from now until the end of the pool.  Nothing but underdogs all the time (except for Middle Tennessee against San Diego State).  Damn the man!!!!

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl:

Vegas Line: San Jose State -3.5

Median pick: San Jose State for 12

Picks for San Jose State: 47 (average points: 16.87)

Picks for Eastern Michigan: 19 (average points: 11.79)

This is a good place to start.  Part one of my diabolical plan to win this pool was to pick nothing but MAC teams to win.  I am 0-1 doing that, so that is suboptimal.  But here I get to cheer for a MAC team – and an underdog!  It’s all coming together for me.

Every year, I make some crack about how this is the worst Bowl game in the entire schedule, and I still think that.  The only thing even remotely interesting about this game is that the turf is blue.  I think Eastern Washington plays on red turf.  That’s kind of fun – and probably just as cold and isolated.  They should consider rotating sites if they are going to keep it.  Better yet, schedule a game in Alaska and call it “Top of the World Bowl” or something equally absurd.  I’ve got a million great ideas.  Give me a call, NCAA.  I’ll pass them all on.

Boca Raton Bowl

Vegas Line: Toledo -3.5

Median Pick: Toledo for 8 points

Picks for Toledo: 48 (average points: 15.33)

Picks for Liberty: 18 (average points: 12.72)

Dammit!  I am one game into my “Only root for underdogs / cheer for chaos” strategy and I am forced to violate my principles and cheer for a favorite to win.  The reason is because my new strategy is a principle of convenience, one of the core tenets of my being is to wish nothing but ill for anything associated with Liberty University.  I don’t mean I want bad things to happen to any of the students or anything like that, but if they never win another game ever that would be just fine by me.  I feel like if you’ve been in any of my pools before, you know my particular derision for Liberty.  Couple that with a MAC school, and this is as clear a rooting interest as I may ever get (Maybe if Liberty were playing Western Michigan, San Diego State or Georgia Tech I would be rooting harder, but that’s like differentiating between a 10/10 and a 9.995/10).

Another thing I think about these types of games is that they seem like nothing, but they are probably going to be worth anywhere from 10-20 points for everyone.  If you lose one or two, that might not be bad, but if you lose these consistently, you are going to have a real hard time winning.  One could argue that given that everyone puts a ton of points on high point spread games and no points on true pick ‘em games, games like this are crucial to winning.

All right, I predicted that virtually no one would read this, and certainly not this far – of anyone reads these at all past the standings and maybe the preview stats, but it doesn’t make a ton of sense for me to write much more.  Besides, it’s getting late and I still have work tomorrow.

Good luck everyone!!!!

Update and Myrtle Beach Bowl preview

 I’ve gotta say, I’ve been making some small mistakes in this bowl pool already and I want to thank everyone for not calling me out on them.  My guess is that most of you haven’t noticed.  For instance, in the sheet I sent out, I spelled Illinois with 3 L’s.  I also think I said the Championship game was going to be played in 2020.  Then in the preview for the games on Saturday, I copied the main statistics for the last game, but didn’t change the actual numbers related to the picks, so the distributions are exactly the same for the last 2 games, even though the graphs look vastly different.

Then today, I told myself that I would hold off on sending anything out Saturday because the games ended so late.  I’ll just write something up Sunday morning.  Then I recorded the World Cup final and watched that most of the morning.  Then laundry, then some eBay auctions I was following were coming to an end, then dinner, then etc. etc. etc.  Anyway, I almost forgot about college football altogether.  I certainly need a better QC team here at bowl pool HQ.

I’ve been doing these pools for a while, and there’s something I have come to learn.  Picking winners is about 75-80% of what it takes to win the pool.  I should go back and look, but I bet that the winner of the pool and the person that picks the most games correctly are the same person most years.  There are a few exceptions, but it’s virtually impossible to finish in the middle of the pack in games picked correctly, and still finish at the top on points.  Statistically, it’s possible, but it virtually never happens.  It’s almost as if the points are irrelevant.  More precisely, the points operate largely as a tiebreaker.  Still, because people distribute them differently, it makes it interesting for us, but wins are critical.

So, there were 6 games yesterday and keeping with my theme – 6 people managed to go 6/6.  One caveat to this number, 4 of the 6 was someone that entered 5 times and largely took the same teams in each of their entries.  That brings up one of the rules in that mentioned in the intro document I sent out with this, which is the Hutch Humphries Legacy Rule of Prize Money.  Due to the nature of this pool, it is entirely possible for someone to enter 3 sheets with some slight differences between them and finish in the top 3 spots.  That sucks for everyone except that one person.  To keep one person from cornering the prize money, if the same person gets multiple payout positions, they are only going to get paid out for the best one, and everyone else will slide up a spot in the payouts.  For instance, If I won 1st and 2nd, I’d only get paid out for 1st.  Whoever finished 3rd would get paid for 2nd and whoever finished 4th would now get 3rd.  That makes it a little more fun for everyone, and a little less like Draft Kings or Fan Duel.

So, the big winner yesterday was my lovely wife, Michelle L. who watched zero college football all season long, but did some extensive studying on the point spreads and also on consensus picks among other “experts” on the Internet.  She managed to get 152 points on the day, including 41 for Boise State and 39 for Oregon State.  The unlucky winner of the day was CAAT 4, who managed to go 6/6, but only got 112 points, which was 24th.  The lucky loser of the day award had to go Brian K.  He only managed to get 4/6 games right, but the 4 games he won got him 134 points, while the 2 he lost only cost him 16.

So, here are the updated points standings:

1. Michelle L.: 190 (-14)

2. CAAT 3: 183 (0)

2. CAAT 5: 183 (0)

4. Andrew Du.: 178 (-1)

5. Kylar G.: 178 (-20)

6. Rich F.: 176 (-24)

7. Hutch H.: 174 (-25)

8. CAAT 2: 170 (-14)

9. Brian K.: 169 (-23)

10. Jim W.: 167 (-23)

11. Steve D.: 166 (-5)

12. Grant F.: 166 (-34)

13. Pete J. #1: 165 (-31)

14. Marc R. #2: 165 (-71)

15. Larry G.: 164 (-5)

16. CAAT 1: 163 (0)

17. Mark B.: 162 (-11)

18. Harrell R. #1: 159 (-13)

19. Matt M.: 159 (-19)

20. CAAT 4: 156 (0)

21. Harrell R. #2: 156 (-16)

22. Mike S.: 156 (-55)

23. Pete J. #2: 155 (-41)

24. Hurley 357: 154 (-6)

25. Otis L.: 150 (-37)

26. Eric K.: 149 (-23)

27. Miela 314: 149 (-28)

28. Scott H. #2: 145 (-10)

29. Dan E.: 142 (-9)

30. Brett G.: 141 (-24)

31. Dylan B.: 141 (-31)

32. Paul K.: 138 (-37)

33. Mike N.: 136 (-15)

34. Kylee T.: 136 (-44)

35. Matt N.: 136 (-60)

36. Scott H. #1: 133 (-30)

37. Mike W.: 126 (-23)

38. Emily T.: 121 (-22)

39. Dustin B.: 118 (-36)

40. Marc R. #1: 117 (-10)

41. Dave M.: 117 (-74)

42. Jay H. #1: 114 (-17)

42. Jay H. #2: 114 (-17)

44. Ryan W.: 113 (-30)

45. Fr. Guido S. #2: 112 (-35)

46. Brett W.: 107 (-17)

47. Josiah T.: 106 (-31)

48. Brent E. #2: 102 (-31)

49. Fr. Guido S. #1: 100 (-47)

50. Adam E.: 99 (-23)

51. Dan D.: 92 (-32)

52. Vincent W.: 92 (-126)

53. Hero R.: 89 (-59)

54. Becky H.: 84 (-75)

55. Brad R.: 80 (-48)

56. Baily T.: 77 (-45)

57. Quinn 1130: 73 (-61)

58. Mason A.: 72 (-38)

59. Klei R.: 70 (-78)

60. Jason S.: 64 (-29)

61. Christa M.: 64 (-40)

62. Peter F.: 63 (-55)

63. Brent E. #1: 56 (-77)

64. Ally H.: 44 (-88)

65. Dennis R.: 37 (-75)

66. Tim N.: 35 (-7)

…and the updated net points standings:

1. CAAT 3: 183

1. CAAT 5: 183

3. Andrew Du.: 177

4. Michelle L.: 176

5. CAAT 1: 163

6. Steve D.: 161

7. Larry G.: 159

8. Kylar G.: 158

9. CAAT 2: 156

9. CAAT 4: 156

11. Rich F.: 152

12. Mark B.: 151

13. Hutch H.: 149

14. Hurley 357: 148

15. Brian K.: 146

15. Harrell R. #1: 146

17. Jim W.: 144

18. Matt M.: 140

18. Harrell R. #2: 140

20. Scott H. #2: 135

21. Pete J. #1: 134

22. Dan E.: 133

23. Grant F.: 132

24. Eric K.: 126

25. Miela 314: 121

25. Mike N.: 121

27. Brett G.: 117

28. Pete J. #2: 114

29. Otis L.: 113

30. Dylan B.: 110

31. Marc R. #1: 107

32. Scott H. #1: 103

32. Mike W.: 103

34. Mike S.: 101

34. Paul K.: 101

36. Emily T.: 99

37. Jay H. #1: 97

37. Jay H. #2: 97

39. Marc R. #2: 94

40. Kylee T.: 92

41. Brett W.: 90

42. Ryan W.: 83

43. Dustin B.: 82

44. Fr. Guido S. #2: 77

45. Matt N.: 76

45. Adam E.: 76

47. Josiah T.: 75

48. Brent E. #2: 71

49. Dan D.: 60

50. Fr. Guido S. #1: 53

51. Dave M.: 43

52. Jason S.: 35

53. Mason A.: 34

54. Brad R.: 32

54. Baily T.: 32

56. Hero R.: 30

57. Tim N.: 28

58. Christa M.: 24

59. Quinn 1130: 12

60. Becky H.: 9

61. Peter F.: 8

62. Klei R.: -8

63. Brent E. #1: -21

64. Vincent W.: -34

65. Dennis R.: -38

66. Ally H.: -44

Mercifully, ESPN decided to only schedule one game tomorrow.  Ideally, they would only schedule one or at most two games every day for 3+ weeks.  That would make my life a lot less hectic, but ESPN doesn’t care what I want.

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Vegas Line: Marshall -12

Median Pick: Marshall for 33.5

Picks for Marshall: 60 (Average points: 29.38)

Picks for Connecticut: 6 (Average points: 16.33)

Yuck.  This one looks ugly.  This currently ranks as the bowl with the 6th most points on it.  We’ve already 2 of the top 5 played (Frisco / Bahamas).  Marshall has the 7th most points wagered on it.  2 of the top 6 have already won, and another 2 of the top 6 are Michigan and Georgia who may wind up playing 2 games.  Connecticut has the 5th fewest points wagered on it.  It makes me think that it’s either going to be an upset that will go down in the annals of Bowl pool history or a total snooze-fest.  Given that they are putting it on during a weekday afternoon, I know which way ESPN is leaning on that one.

For those that don’t know, I am a total college basketball junkie.  During the season, I keep a top 25 that I calculate based on the results of the season so far.  As of today, my #1 team in the country is Connecticut.  May I recommend to anyone that is a fan of the Huskies – focus on the basketball team.  They are going to be much better than the football team.

Good luck everyone!!!!

2022 Bowl Pool - After Day 1 - Preview of Day 2

 Hello again everyone.  Welcome to this year’s bowl pool.  I gotta admit, it’s been a rough couple of years for college football, and the bowl schedule specifically.  If anyone remembers last year, there was a truncated football season, followed by a bunch of bowl games getting cancelled and some teams playing other teams they weren’t originally scheduled to play.  I had to make some rules on the fly, which was pretty awful.  Even that was an improvement over the year before, where there weren’t any games and I didn’t even bother running a pool.

I would argue that COVID is still around, and still spreading pretty widely, but I don’t think that any of the games this year are in danger of getting cancelled.  That’s good news (unless you happen to catch COVID at one of these games, or any of the festivities leading up to these games).  I’ve been to a few bowl games in my life, but I have managed to go this long COVID-free, so I am more than comfortable watching these games from the comfort of my couch (or on my iPad).

Speaking of which, there were 2 games already played on Day 1 of this bowl season.  Before I get to those, let’s get an overview of the how this pool is going to run, especially for anyone that has never been in one of these before.

All of the entries I am going to accept are in, and after some minor cleanup where people left some winners off, there are no mistakes in the forms.  That’s pretty impressive.  Usually, there’s at least 1 or 2 people that put the same number twice or pick a number that can’t be (like 45).  None of that happened this year, which makes my life a whole lot easier.

We got a total of 65 entries this year, which puts us on par with where we were prior to the pandemic.  That’s great.  Hopefully, that means next year we can continue to grow this thing.  That also means that the payout will be 3 spots.  As usual, I will tell everyone what they need to do to get any of those spots as the end of the pool draws nearer.

In the mean time, I will send out two sets of rankings.  The first will be the raw points rankings.  This is just the number of points you have won.  The second will be the net points rankings, which is based on the number of points you’ve won minus the number you have lost.  I’ll let you determine which one is more important to you.  My determination of that will be based on which one I am higher in, but the net point rankings is probably better to determining the overall health of the entry.

I’m not at all sure why ESPN did this, but the first game today was at 8:30 AM on the West Coast on a Friday when most people are not taking off from work.  I had it streaming on my iPad in between meetings today, and if you somehow managed to catch it, it was a pretty good game.  It also was probably a game most of our little group could comfortably ignore, with the thought they were going to log some easy points and get off to a good start.  That is because this game had the third highest point spread (10.5) of any game and we treated it as such.  This game featured the 2nd highest median pick of the entire pool at UAB for 35 points.  For those that are unfamiliar, the median is the point where half of the picks are above the number and half are below.  The reason it is important is because if you had UAB for say, 30 points, that is a lot of points, but you are losing ground to more than half the field if you win.  That means, you may be better served losing because more people will lose more points.  It’s not always about winning points in this pool.  Anyway, UAB had the 7th most points wagered on it in the entire pool.  If you caught the game, you know it was a lot more back and forth than a 10.5 point spread would have you believe.  In the end, Miami (Ohio) was on the 15 yard line with 1 second left on the clock, and managed to get down to the 2 before time ran out on the final play.  For a game between two 6-6 teams, played at a off time in a country that doesn’t play football in front of maybe 500 fans on a field that looks like the closest seats were 75 yards from the field, it was a very entertaining game.  UAB did manage to eke out a win, lots of people got points, and get to feel pretty proud about themselves that a team where almost no one could name what conference they are in got them off to a fast start.

But wait, there was another game.  The Cure Bowl.  I feel like I make some joke about Robert Smith coming out for the coin flip every year, but it actually seems like a good cause.  I’m kind of hoping for the day that the cure for cancer can actually sponsor a bowl game, but this year, that slack was taken up by Duluth Trading Company, who doesn’t have much to do with curing cancer really, but does have some strange commercials.

This game also turned out to be pretty decent, despite coming on immediately after the Bahamas bowl.  I assume everyone was still at work for this bowl as well.  I guess the ESPN NBA contract was more lucrative.  Honestly, the ESPN NBA contract is definitely more lucrative.  I guess I get it.  Both Troy State and UTSA are legitamitely good teams, which made it pretty fun to watch.  I’m guessing most of you missed it because this game was dead last in the number of points wagered on it.  Not really sure why all the hate for this game.  There were a lot of games that had points spreads 3 or less, but this one, we decided was the biggest toss up.  The median was UTSA for 2 points, so you got to root for the team you picked to help you.  The downside being that even if they won, you probably weren’t getting many points.  Only 3 people had this as a Top 10 game.  My strategy for this year was to do the opposite of what I have done in years past.  I decide to put a ton of points on games like this and virtually none on potential blowouts.  I want to see if I am so gloriously bad at picking that I can counteract it by stressing out over toss up games.  There doesn’t seem to be any chance that will actually work, but it did get me 39 points on this game.

I’m guessing you didn’t come here to read me blabbering on.  You probably care about the standings.  Odds are pretty good you are just skipping over this.  OK, here are the raw points standings:

1. Hurley 357: 73 (0)

2. Larry G.: 63 (0)

3. Ryan W.: 59 (0)

4. Kylar G.: 55 (0)

5. Pete J. #2: 54 (0)

6. Brent E. #2: 53 (0)

7. Rich F.: 49 (0)

8. Scott H. #2: 46 (0)

9. Brett W.: 45 (0)

9. Mark B.: 45 (0)

11. CAAT 1: 44 (0)

11. CAAT 5: 44 (0)

11. CAAT 2: 44 (0)

11. CAAT 3: 44 (0)

11. CAAT 4: 44 (0)

16. Adam E.: 41 (-5)

18. Pete J. #1: 40 (-14)

17. Harrell R. #1: 40 (0)

20. Marc R. #1: 39 (-1)

26. Marc R. #2: 39 (-28)

21. Hutch H.: 39 (-3)

23. Jay H. #1: 39 (-12)

19. Dylan B.: 39 (0)

21. Klei R.: 39 (-3)

23. Jay H. #2: 39 (-12)

25. Mike W.: 39 (-22)

30. Michelle L.: 38 (-14)

27. Dan E.: 38 (-4)

29. Jim W.: 38 (-6)

28. Eric K.: 38 (-5)

31. Mason A.: 37 (0)

34. Harrell R. #2: 37 (-3)

31. Kylee T.: 37 (0)

35. Matt N.: 37 (-14)

36. Brett G.: 37 (-17)

33. Andrew Du.: 37 (-1)

37. Dave M.: 36 (0)

39. Brent E. #1: 35 (-18)

40. Miela 314: 35 (-21)

38. Brian K.: 35 (-7)

44. Emily T.: 34 (-11)

41. Paul K.: 34 (0)

42. Dustin B.: 34 (-1)

43. Mike S.: 34 (-2)

45. Grant F.: 33 (-14)

46. Vincent W.: 32 (-28)

47. Matt M.: 31 (-11)

48. Quinn 1130: 29 (0)

50. Scott H. #1: 28 (-6)

49. Steve D.: 28 (0)

51. Otis L.: 22 (-12)

52. Hero R.: 22 (-14)

53. Baily T.: 21 (-22)

55. Christa M.: 20 (-18)

54. Mike N.: 20 (-5)

56. Fr. Guido S. #1: 17 (-15)

57. Josiah T.: 16 (-11)

58. Fr. Guido S. #2: 15 (-17)

60. Peter F.: 13 (-22)

59. Dan D.: 13 (0)

61. Brad R.: 9 (-30)

62. Ally H.: 7 (-27)

63. Becky H.: 6 (-17)

64. Tim N.: 5 (-4)

66. Dennis R.: 0 (-13)

65. Jason S.: 0 (-3)

…and the net point standings:

1. Hurley 357: 73

2. Larry G.: 63

3. Ryan W.: 59

4. Kylar G.: 55

5. Pete J. #2: 54

6. Brent E. #2: 53

7. Rich F.: 49

8. Scott H. #2: 46

9. Brett W.: 45

9. Mark B.: 45

11. CAAT 1: 44

11. CAAT 5: 44

11. CAAT 2: 44

11. CAAT 3: 44

11. CAAT 4: 44

16. Harrell R. #1: 40

17. Dylan B.: 39

18. Marc R. #1: 38

19. Mason A.: 37

19. Kylee T.: 37

21. Adam E.: 36

21. Hutch H.: 36

21. Klei R.: 36

21. Andrew Du.: 36

21. Dave M.: 36

26. Dan E.: 34

26. Harrell R. #2: 34

26. Paul K.: 34

29. Eric K.: 33

29. Dustin B.: 33

31. Jim W.: 32

31. Mike S.: 32

33. Quinn 1130: 29

34. Brian K.: 28

34. Steve D.: 28

36. Jay H. #1: 27

36. Jay H. #2: 27

38. Pete J. #1: 26

39. Michelle L.: 24

40. Matt N.: 23

40. Emily T.: 23

42. Scott H. #1: 22

43. Brett G.: 20

43. Matt M.: 20

45. Grant F.: 19

46. Mike W.: 17

46. Brent E. #1: 17

48. Mike N.: 15

49. Miela 314: 14

50. Dan D.: 13

51. Marc R. #2: 11

52. Otis L.: 10

53. Hero R.: 8

54. Josiah T.: 5

55. Vincent W.: 4

56. Christa M.: 2

56. Fr. Guido S. #1: 2

58. Tim N.: 1

59. Baily T.: -1

60. Fr. Guido S. #2: -2

61. Jason S.: -3

62. Peter F.: -9

63. Becky H.: -11

64. Dennis R.: -13

65. Ally H.: -20

66. Brad R.: -21

It pains me to see my Dad and Ally H. at the bottom of these standings.  They are two of my favorite pickers every year.  Chin up, guys.  There’s a ton more games.  You can move up.

So, in a day when one game was picked by an overwhelming majority of people and the other was a coin toss, you can probably guess how many people went 2-0.  The answer was 24, which is a little less than I would’ve guessed, but in the ballpark.  The unlucky winner of the day was Dan D.  He went 2-0 and only managed to get 13 points out of it.  The lucky loser of the day was Jason S.  He was one of only 2 people today to go 0-2, but he only managed to lose 3 points.  I would argue that was almost as important.  Average picks today was 1.33 games right out of 2, 33.83 points won and 7.77 points lost.  That pretty solid.  I’ve had years where only one person was net positive on points, so this is a strong start for the group.

I also root for upsets, and Troy State was technically an upset, so I’m pretty happy about thatg.

There are six (6!!!!) games tomorrow.  I am going to go hiking, so I am skipping a bunch of them, especially the early ones, but here is a breakdown:

Fenway Bowl

Vegas Line: Louisville -2

Median Pick: Cincinnati for 3

Picks for Louisville: 30 (average: 13.67)

Picks for Cincinnati: 36 (average: 12.50)

I am going to go on record as saying that I am against gimmicky bowl locations.  I could argue that the Bahamas Bowl is gimmicky, the Potato Bowl is gimmicky, the Pinstripe Bowl is gimmicky and the Fenway Bowl is gimmicky.  It’s begging for someone to say, “What? Football in a baseball stadium?!  That’s so weird!”  Yuck.  My pitch, and I don’t even know how feasible this is, is to play some future bowl game on the deck of an aircraft carrier.  They could call it the Pacific Fleet Bowl and play it in International waters.  I’ve been to the Midway here in San Diego, and those things are way bigger than you may think.  The problem would probably be getting turf on the deck and the lack of people to watch it.  Then again, I bet it could draw better than the Bahamas Bowl did.  Food for thought, if anyone here has tied to the NCAA.  Anyway, this is a rare case where the group went against the line in Vegas.  The line may have moved on this, I’m not sure.  I feel like the lines moved a lot this season, largely because a lot of players that think they’ll be drafted just skip the game.  I hope anyone that does that gets left at home.  If you are abandoning your team in the last game of the season, you probably don’t deserve to participate in the pre-game bowling tournament or any kind of banquet.  Not sure how that plays out.  Anyway, I know nothing about these teams, but given the point spread is really low, I bet I put a mountain of points on it.  

Las Vegas Bowl

Vegas Line: Oregon State -8

Median Pick: Oregon State for 25

Picks for Oregon State: 54 (average: 28.65)

Picks for Florida: 12 (average: 17.67)

I didn’t check where they are playing this game, but I hope it’s the new NFL stadium in Las Vegas.  They used to play it at the UNLV stadium and I always thought that place looked a little run down.  The new NFL stadium looks new.  I’ve driven past it once, and it’s a behemoth.  I guess everyone took one look at Oregon State, saw that they were 9-3 and ranking #14, and that they were playing a 6-6 Florida team that is probably only in a game this good because they can draw fans and made the obvious choice.  My hope is that I will be somewhere near the top of Cowles Mountain by the time this one kicks off, but more power to anyone that wants to watch it.

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Vegas Line: Fresno State -4

Median Pick: Fresno State for 1

Picks for Fresno State: 35 (average: 13.34)

Picks for Washington State: 31 (average: 14.06)

I don’t watch much late night TV, and when I do, it’s usually the Daily Show (although who knows now that Trevor Noah is leaving).  However, I do sometimes find Jimmy Kimmel to be entertaining and he was good last year when he came into the booth for this game.  Was the game any good?  Who remembers.  Nobody remembers the teams in this type of bowl game.  I suspect that will also be the case after this one as well.  The good news is that the median is almost right in the middle, so whoever you picked to win is exactly who you should be rooting for.  No need to get cute on this one.  Also, the stadium where they play is one also looks really nice.  I’ve never been there, but I hear there are going to be World Cup games there in 4 years and I’d love to get tickets to that.

LendingTree Bowl

Vegas Line: Southern Miss -6.5

Median Pick: Southern Miss for 23

Picks for Southern Miss: 57 (average: 22.81)

Picks for Rice: 9 (average: 13.22)

A few years ago, I convinced myself that if I knew who everyone picked in the pool,  I could devise a critical path to winning that would maximize my chances.  I wound up losing on the last day in that pool.  The big takeaway for me was games like this.  I think of it as a nice rule of thumb.  If a team comes into a bowl game with a losing record, bet a lot on that team.  The reasons have a little to do with the team and a little to do with the public.  First, a team with a losing record doesn’t expect to be in a bowl game, so they wind up being pretty psyched to be there.  Probably more so than a 6-6 team, who may also be happy to be there, but there may be an enthusiasm gap.  The second reason is that almost everyone that sees a team with a losing record in a bowl game, they think that team must be really bad and go hard against them (like in this game).  I’m not saying that Rice is going to win here, but if there is a critical path algorithm for winning this pool, I bet it would have a lot less faith in Southern Miss and lot more faith in Rice.

New Mexico Bowl

Vegas Line: SMU -4

Median Pick: BYU for 3.5

Picks for SMU: 29 (average: 12.52)

Picks for BYU: 37 (average: 13.68)

This game looks weird to me.  First, it’s the second game of the day where our picks went against the Vegas line.  Not sure if that was a line movement or we just all love BYU football, but more of chose the underdog in this one.  Also, I could swear that they moved the starting time on this game.  On my sheet, I have it starting at 2:30 EST, but the website I’m on says it starts at 7:30.  I guess they really wanted to flex this marquee matchup of 7-5 teams to a prime time spot.  Who can blame them?  It’s not everyday, you get to see two mediocre mid-tier college teams play.  Wait, that is actually almost every day for the next 3 weeks.  All right, I have no idea why this got moved, but it’s on late enough that I may catch part of it, so there’s that.

Frisco Bowl

Vegas Line: Boise State -10.5

Median Pick: Boise State for 32

Picks for Boise State: 29 (average: 12.52)

Picks for North Texas: 37 (average: 13.68)

This, mercifully, is our last game of the day.  Remember back in the day when Boise State was pretty good, but no kind of national powerhouse, and they were always invited to the Potato Bowl, where they would essentially play a home game?  Well, Boise State has graduated to the big time and now gets to play in a game that probably is not going to be played on an ice cube.  I bet they take that every time.  I will say this for North Texas, the “Mean Green” is a great mascot nickname.  I don’t know what a “Mean Green” is exactly, but I’d love for it to be some kind of amorphous blob that happens to be green.  Maybe something like Gritty or the Western Kentucky Hilltopper – only green.  Just tossing out ideas.

All right, it’s gonna be a long day.  If you watch all of these games, I highly recommend you get a life outside of college football.  That much football not on New Years Day is too much.  At least on New Years Day, the teams are supposed to be better, and there’s a tradition there.  There’s no tradition associated with a random Saturday in December and mediocre mid to lower tier bowl games.  Besides, watching this many games will only stress you out.  The games will go on whether you watch them or not, and I’ll be here to provide some commentary and updates at the end of the day.

Enjoy your Saturday and good luck to everyone!!!!