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Hello again everyone. Welcome to this year’s bowl pool. I gotta admit, it’s been a rough couple of years for college football, and the bowl schedule specifically. If anyone remembers last year, there was a truncated football season, followed by a bunch of bowl games getting cancelled and some teams playing other teams they weren’t originally scheduled to play. I had to make some rules on the fly, which was pretty awful. Even that was an improvement over the year before, where there weren’t any games and I didn’t even bother running a pool.
I would argue that COVID is still around, and still spreading pretty widely, but I don’t think that any of the games this year are in danger of getting cancelled. That’s good news (unless you happen to catch COVID at one of these games, or any of the festivities leading up to these games). I’ve been to a few bowl games in my life, but I have managed to go this long COVID-free, so I am more than comfortable watching these games from the comfort of my couch (or on my iPad).
Speaking of which, there were 2 games already played on Day 1 of this bowl season. Before I get to those, let’s get an overview of the how this pool is going to run, especially for anyone that has never been in one of these before.
All of the entries I am going to accept are in, and after some minor cleanup where people left some winners off, there are no mistakes in the forms. That’s pretty impressive. Usually, there’s at least 1 or 2 people that put the same number twice or pick a number that can’t be (like 45). None of that happened this year, which makes my life a whole lot easier.
We got a total of 65 entries this year, which puts us on par with where we were prior to the pandemic. That’s great. Hopefully, that means next year we can continue to grow this thing. That also means that the payout will be 3 spots. As usual, I will tell everyone what they need to do to get any of those spots as the end of the pool draws nearer.
In the mean time, I will send out two sets of rankings. The first will be the raw points rankings. This is just the number of points you have won. The second will be the net points rankings, which is based on the number of points you’ve won minus the number you have lost. I’ll let you determine which one is more important to you. My determination of that will be based on which one I am higher in, but the net point rankings is probably better to determining the overall health of the entry.
I’m not at all sure why ESPN did this, but the first game today was at 8:30 AM on the West Coast on a Friday when most people are not taking off from work. I had it streaming on my iPad in between meetings today, and if you somehow managed to catch it, it was a pretty good game. It also was probably a game most of our little group could comfortably ignore, with the thought they were going to log some easy points and get off to a good start. That is because this game had the third highest point spread (10.5) of any game and we treated it as such. This game featured the 2nd highest median pick of the entire pool at UAB for 35 points. For those that are unfamiliar, the median is the point where half of the picks are above the number and half are below. The reason it is important is because if you had UAB for say, 30 points, that is a lot of points, but you are losing ground to more than half the field if you win. That means, you may be better served losing because more people will lose more points. It’s not always about winning points in this pool. Anyway, UAB had the 7th most points wagered on it in the entire pool. If you caught the game, you know it was a lot more back and forth than a 10.5 point spread would have you believe. In the end, Miami (Ohio) was on the 15 yard line with 1 second left on the clock, and managed to get down to the 2 before time ran out on the final play. For a game between two 6-6 teams, played at a off time in a country that doesn’t play football in front of maybe 500 fans on a field that looks like the closest seats were 75 yards from the field, it was a very entertaining game. UAB did manage to eke out a win, lots of people got points, and get to feel pretty proud about themselves that a team where almost no one could name what conference they are in got them off to a fast start.
But wait, there was another game. The Cure Bowl. I feel like I make some joke about Robert Smith coming out for the coin flip every year, but it actually seems like a good cause. I’m kind of hoping for the day that the cure for cancer can actually sponsor a bowl game, but this year, that slack was taken up by Duluth Trading Company, who doesn’t have much to do with curing cancer really, but does have some strange commercials.
This game also turned out to be pretty decent, despite coming on immediately after the Bahamas bowl. I assume everyone was still at work for this bowl as well. I guess the ESPN NBA contract was more lucrative. Honestly, the ESPN NBA contract is definitely more lucrative. I guess I get it. Both Troy State and UTSA are legitamitely good teams, which made it pretty fun to watch. I’m guessing most of you missed it because this game was dead last in the number of points wagered on it. Not really sure why all the hate for this game. There were a lot of games that had points spreads 3 or less, but this one, we decided was the biggest toss up. The median was UTSA for 2 points, so you got to root for the team you picked to help you. The downside being that even if they won, you probably weren’t getting many points. Only 3 people had this as a Top 10 game. My strategy for this year was to do the opposite of what I have done in years past. I decide to put a ton of points on games like this and virtually none on potential blowouts. I want to see if I am so gloriously bad at picking that I can counteract it by stressing out over toss up games. There doesn’t seem to be any chance that will actually work, but it did get me 39 points on this game.
I’m guessing you didn’t come here to read me blabbering on. You probably care about the standings. Odds are pretty good you are just skipping over this. OK, here are the raw points standings:
1. Hurley 357: 73 (0)
2. Larry G.: 63 (0)
3. Ryan W.: 59 (0)
4. Kylar G.: 55 (0)
5. Pete J. #2: 54 (0)
6. Brent E. #2: 53 (0)
7. Rich F.: 49 (0)
8. Scott H. #2: 46 (0)
9. Brett W.: 45 (0)
9. Mark B.: 45 (0)
11. CAAT 1: 44 (0)
11. CAAT 5: 44 (0)
11. CAAT 2: 44 (0)
11. CAAT 3: 44 (0)
11. CAAT 4: 44 (0)
16. Adam E.: 41 (-5)
18. Pete J. #1: 40 (-14)
17. Harrell R. #1: 40 (0)
20. Marc R. #1: 39 (-1)
26. Marc R. #2: 39 (-28)
21. Hutch H.: 39 (-3)
23. Jay H. #1: 39 (-12)
19. Dylan B.: 39 (0)
21. Klei R.: 39 (-3)
23. Jay H. #2: 39 (-12)
25. Mike W.: 39 (-22)
30. Michelle L.: 38 (-14)
27. Dan E.: 38 (-4)
29. Jim W.: 38 (-6)
28. Eric K.: 38 (-5)
31. Mason A.: 37 (0)
34. Harrell R. #2: 37 (-3)
31. Kylee T.: 37 (0)
35. Matt N.: 37 (-14)
36. Brett G.: 37 (-17)
33. Andrew Du.: 37 (-1)
37. Dave M.: 36 (0)
39. Brent E. #1: 35 (-18)
40. Miela 314: 35 (-21)
38. Brian K.: 35 (-7)
44. Emily T.: 34 (-11)
41. Paul K.: 34 (0)
42. Dustin B.: 34 (-1)
43. Mike S.: 34 (-2)
45. Grant F.: 33 (-14)
46. Vincent W.: 32 (-28)
47. Matt M.: 31 (-11)
48. Quinn 1130: 29 (0)
50. Scott H. #1: 28 (-6)
49. Steve D.: 28 (0)
51. Otis L.: 22 (-12)
52. Hero R.: 22 (-14)
53. Baily T.: 21 (-22)
55. Christa M.: 20 (-18)
54. Mike N.: 20 (-5)
56. Fr. Guido S. #1: 17 (-15)
57. Josiah T.: 16 (-11)
58. Fr. Guido S. #2: 15 (-17)
60. Peter F.: 13 (-22)
59. Dan D.: 13 (0)
61. Brad R.: 9 (-30)
62. Ally H.: 7 (-27)
63. Becky H.: 6 (-17)
64. Tim N.: 5 (-4)
66. Dennis R.: 0 (-13)
65. Jason S.: 0 (-3)
…and the net point standings:
1. Hurley 357: 73
2. Larry G.: 63
3. Ryan W.: 59
4. Kylar G.: 55
5. Pete J. #2: 54
6. Brent E. #2: 53
7. Rich F.: 49
8. Scott H. #2: 46
9. Brett W.: 45
9. Mark B.: 45
11. CAAT 1: 44
11. CAAT 5: 44
11. CAAT 2: 44
11. CAAT 3: 44
11. CAAT 4: 44
16. Harrell R. #1: 40
17. Dylan B.: 39
18. Marc R. #1: 38
19. Mason A.: 37
19. Kylee T.: 37
21. Adam E.: 36
21. Hutch H.: 36
21. Klei R.: 36
21. Andrew Du.: 36
21. Dave M.: 36
26. Dan E.: 34
26. Harrell R. #2: 34
26. Paul K.: 34
29. Eric K.: 33
29. Dustin B.: 33
31. Jim W.: 32
31. Mike S.: 32
33. Quinn 1130: 29
34. Brian K.: 28
34. Steve D.: 28
36. Jay H. #1: 27
36. Jay H. #2: 27
38. Pete J. #1: 26
39. Michelle L.: 24
40. Matt N.: 23
40. Emily T.: 23
42. Scott H. #1: 22
43. Brett G.: 20
43. Matt M.: 20
45. Grant F.: 19
46. Mike W.: 17
46. Brent E. #1: 17
48. Mike N.: 15
49. Miela 314: 14
50. Dan D.: 13
51. Marc R. #2: 11
52. Otis L.: 10
53. Hero R.: 8
54. Josiah T.: 5
55. Vincent W.: 4
56. Christa M.: 2
56. Fr. Guido S. #1: 2
58. Tim N.: 1
59. Baily T.: -1
60. Fr. Guido S. #2: -2
61. Jason S.: -3
62. Peter F.: -9
63. Becky H.: -11
64. Dennis R.: -13
65. Ally H.: -20
66. Brad R.: -21
It pains me to see my Dad and Ally H. at the bottom of these standings. They are two of my favorite pickers every year. Chin up, guys. There’s a ton more games. You can move up.
So, in a day when one game was picked by an overwhelming majority of people and the other was a coin toss, you can probably guess how many people went 2-0. The answer was 24, which is a little less than I would’ve guessed, but in the ballpark. The unlucky winner of the day was Dan D. He went 2-0 and only managed to get 13 points out of it. The lucky loser of the day was Jason S. He was one of only 2 people today to go 0-2, but he only managed to lose 3 points. I would argue that was almost as important. Average picks today was 1.33 games right out of 2, 33.83 points won and 7.77 points lost. That pretty solid. I’ve had years where only one person was net positive on points, so this is a strong start for the group.
I also root for upsets, and Troy State was technically an upset, so I’m pretty happy about thatg.
There are six (6!!!!) games tomorrow. I am going to go hiking, so I am skipping a bunch of them, especially the early ones, but here is a breakdown:
Fenway Bowl
Vegas Line: Louisville -2
Median Pick: Cincinnati for 3
Picks for Louisville: 30 (average: 13.67)
Picks for Cincinnati: 36 (average: 12.50)
I am going to go on record as saying that I am against gimmicky bowl locations. I could argue that the Bahamas Bowl is gimmicky, the Potato Bowl is gimmicky, the Pinstripe Bowl is gimmicky and the Fenway Bowl is gimmicky. It’s begging for someone to say, “What? Football in a baseball stadium?! That’s so weird!” Yuck. My pitch, and I don’t even know how feasible this is, is to play some future bowl game on the deck of an aircraft carrier. They could call it the Pacific Fleet Bowl and play it in International waters. I’ve been to the Midway here in San Diego, and those things are way bigger than you may think. The problem would probably be getting turf on the deck and the lack of people to watch it. Then again, I bet it could draw better than the Bahamas Bowl did. Food for thought, if anyone here has tied to the NCAA. Anyway, this is a rare case where the group went against the line in Vegas. The line may have moved on this, I’m not sure. I feel like the lines moved a lot this season, largely because a lot of players that think they’ll be drafted just skip the game. I hope anyone that does that gets left at home. If you are abandoning your team in the last game of the season, you probably don’t deserve to participate in the pre-game bowling tournament or any kind of banquet. Not sure how that plays out. Anyway, I know nothing about these teams, but given the point spread is really low, I bet I put a mountain of points on it.
Las Vegas Bowl
Vegas Line: Oregon State -8
Median Pick: Oregon State for 25
Picks for Oregon State: 54 (average: 28.65)
Picks for Florida: 12 (average: 17.67)
I didn’t check where they are playing this game, but I hope it’s the new NFL stadium in Las Vegas. They used to play it at the UNLV stadium and I always thought that place looked a little run down. The new NFL stadium looks new. I’ve driven past it once, and it’s a behemoth. I guess everyone took one look at Oregon State, saw that they were 9-3 and ranking #14, and that they were playing a 6-6 Florida team that is probably only in a game this good because they can draw fans and made the obvious choice. My hope is that I will be somewhere near the top of Cowles Mountain by the time this one kicks off, but more power to anyone that wants to watch it.
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Vegas Line: Fresno State -4
Median Pick: Fresno State for 1
Picks for Fresno State: 35 (average: 13.34)
Picks for Washington State: 31 (average: 14.06)
I don’t watch much late night TV, and when I do, it’s usually the Daily Show (although who knows now that Trevor Noah is leaving). However, I do sometimes find Jimmy Kimmel to be entertaining and he was good last year when he came into the booth for this game. Was the game any good? Who remembers. Nobody remembers the teams in this type of bowl game. I suspect that will also be the case after this one as well. The good news is that the median is almost right in the middle, so whoever you picked to win is exactly who you should be rooting for. No need to get cute on this one. Also, the stadium where they play is one also looks really nice. I’ve never been there, but I hear there are going to be World Cup games there in 4 years and I’d love to get tickets to that.
LendingTree Bowl
Vegas Line: Southern Miss -6.5
Median Pick: Southern Miss for 23
Picks for Southern Miss: 57 (average: 22.81)
Picks for Rice: 9 (average: 13.22)
A few years ago, I convinced myself that if I knew who everyone picked in the pool, I could devise a critical path to winning that would maximize my chances. I wound up losing on the last day in that pool. The big takeaway for me was games like this. I think of it as a nice rule of thumb. If a team comes into a bowl game with a losing record, bet a lot on that team. The reasons have a little to do with the team and a little to do with the public. First, a team with a losing record doesn’t expect to be in a bowl game, so they wind up being pretty psyched to be there. Probably more so than a 6-6 team, who may also be happy to be there, but there may be an enthusiasm gap. The second reason is that almost everyone that sees a team with a losing record in a bowl game, they think that team must be really bad and go hard against them (like in this game). I’m not saying that Rice is going to win here, but if there is a critical path algorithm for winning this pool, I bet it would have a lot less faith in Southern Miss and lot more faith in Rice.
New Mexico Bowl
Vegas Line: SMU -4
Median Pick: BYU for 3.5
Picks for SMU: 29 (average: 12.52)
Picks for BYU: 37 (average: 13.68)
This game looks weird to me. First, it’s the second game of the day where our picks went against the Vegas line. Not sure if that was a line movement or we just all love BYU football, but more of chose the underdog in this one. Also, I could swear that they moved the starting time on this game. On my sheet, I have it starting at 2:30 EST, but the website I’m on says it starts at 7:30. I guess they really wanted to flex this marquee matchup of 7-5 teams to a prime time spot. Who can blame them? It’s not everyday, you get to see two mediocre mid-tier college teams play. Wait, that is actually almost every day for the next 3 weeks. All right, I have no idea why this got moved, but it’s on late enough that I may catch part of it, so there’s that.
Frisco Bowl
Vegas Line: Boise State -10.5
Median Pick: Boise State for 32
Picks for Boise State: 29 (average: 12.52)
Picks for North Texas: 37 (average: 13.68)
This, mercifully, is our last game of the day. Remember back in the day when Boise State was pretty good, but no kind of national powerhouse, and they were always invited to the Potato Bowl, where they would essentially play a home game? Well, Boise State has graduated to the big time and now gets to play in a game that probably is not going to be played on an ice cube. I bet they take that every time. I will say this for North Texas, the “Mean Green” is a great mascot nickname. I don’t know what a “Mean Green” is exactly, but I’d love for it to be some kind of amorphous blob that happens to be green. Maybe something like Gritty or the Western Kentucky Hilltopper – only green. Just tossing out ideas.
All right, it’s gonna be a long day. If you watch all of these games, I highly recommend you get a life outside of college football. That much football not on New Years Day is too much. At least on New Years Day, the teams are supposed to be better, and there’s a tradition there. There’s no tradition associated with a random Saturday in December and mediocre mid to lower tier bowl games. Besides, watching this many games will only stress you out. The games will go on whether you watch them or not, and I’ll be here to provide some commentary and updates at the end of the day.
Enjoy your Saturday and good luck to everyone!!!!
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