Update and Myrtle Beach Bowl preview

 I’ve gotta say, I’ve been making some small mistakes in this bowl pool already and I want to thank everyone for not calling me out on them.  My guess is that most of you haven’t noticed.  For instance, in the sheet I sent out, I spelled Illinois with 3 L’s.  I also think I said the Championship game was going to be played in 2020.  Then in the preview for the games on Saturday, I copied the main statistics for the last game, but didn’t change the actual numbers related to the picks, so the distributions are exactly the same for the last 2 games, even though the graphs look vastly different.

Then today, I told myself that I would hold off on sending anything out Saturday because the games ended so late.  I’ll just write something up Sunday morning.  Then I recorded the World Cup final and watched that most of the morning.  Then laundry, then some eBay auctions I was following were coming to an end, then dinner, then etc. etc. etc.  Anyway, I almost forgot about college football altogether.  I certainly need a better QC team here at bowl pool HQ.

I’ve been doing these pools for a while, and there’s something I have come to learn.  Picking winners is about 75-80% of what it takes to win the pool.  I should go back and look, but I bet that the winner of the pool and the person that picks the most games correctly are the same person most years.  There are a few exceptions, but it’s virtually impossible to finish in the middle of the pack in games picked correctly, and still finish at the top on points.  Statistically, it’s possible, but it virtually never happens.  It’s almost as if the points are irrelevant.  More precisely, the points operate largely as a tiebreaker.  Still, because people distribute them differently, it makes it interesting for us, but wins are critical.

So, there were 6 games yesterday and keeping with my theme – 6 people managed to go 6/6.  One caveat to this number, 4 of the 6 was someone that entered 5 times and largely took the same teams in each of their entries.  That brings up one of the rules in that mentioned in the intro document I sent out with this, which is the Hutch Humphries Legacy Rule of Prize Money.  Due to the nature of this pool, it is entirely possible for someone to enter 3 sheets with some slight differences between them and finish in the top 3 spots.  That sucks for everyone except that one person.  To keep one person from cornering the prize money, if the same person gets multiple payout positions, they are only going to get paid out for the best one, and everyone else will slide up a spot in the payouts.  For instance, If I won 1st and 2nd, I’d only get paid out for 1st.  Whoever finished 3rd would get paid for 2nd and whoever finished 4th would now get 3rd.  That makes it a little more fun for everyone, and a little less like Draft Kings or Fan Duel.

So, the big winner yesterday was my lovely wife, Michelle L. who watched zero college football all season long, but did some extensive studying on the point spreads and also on consensus picks among other “experts” on the Internet.  She managed to get 152 points on the day, including 41 for Boise State and 39 for Oregon State.  The unlucky winner of the day was CAAT 4, who managed to go 6/6, but only got 112 points, which was 24th.  The lucky loser of the day award had to go Brian K.  He only managed to get 4/6 games right, but the 4 games he won got him 134 points, while the 2 he lost only cost him 16.

So, here are the updated points standings:

1. Michelle L.: 190 (-14)

2. CAAT 3: 183 (0)

2. CAAT 5: 183 (0)

4. Andrew Du.: 178 (-1)

5. Kylar G.: 178 (-20)

6. Rich F.: 176 (-24)

7. Hutch H.: 174 (-25)

8. CAAT 2: 170 (-14)

9. Brian K.: 169 (-23)

10. Jim W.: 167 (-23)

11. Steve D.: 166 (-5)

12. Grant F.: 166 (-34)

13. Pete J. #1: 165 (-31)

14. Marc R. #2: 165 (-71)

15. Larry G.: 164 (-5)

16. CAAT 1: 163 (0)

17. Mark B.: 162 (-11)

18. Harrell R. #1: 159 (-13)

19. Matt M.: 159 (-19)

20. CAAT 4: 156 (0)

21. Harrell R. #2: 156 (-16)

22. Mike S.: 156 (-55)

23. Pete J. #2: 155 (-41)

24. Hurley 357: 154 (-6)

25. Otis L.: 150 (-37)

26. Eric K.: 149 (-23)

27. Miela 314: 149 (-28)

28. Scott H. #2: 145 (-10)

29. Dan E.: 142 (-9)

30. Brett G.: 141 (-24)

31. Dylan B.: 141 (-31)

32. Paul K.: 138 (-37)

33. Mike N.: 136 (-15)

34. Kylee T.: 136 (-44)

35. Matt N.: 136 (-60)

36. Scott H. #1: 133 (-30)

37. Mike W.: 126 (-23)

38. Emily T.: 121 (-22)

39. Dustin B.: 118 (-36)

40. Marc R. #1: 117 (-10)

41. Dave M.: 117 (-74)

42. Jay H. #1: 114 (-17)

42. Jay H. #2: 114 (-17)

44. Ryan W.: 113 (-30)

45. Fr. Guido S. #2: 112 (-35)

46. Brett W.: 107 (-17)

47. Josiah T.: 106 (-31)

48. Brent E. #2: 102 (-31)

49. Fr. Guido S. #1: 100 (-47)

50. Adam E.: 99 (-23)

51. Dan D.: 92 (-32)

52. Vincent W.: 92 (-126)

53. Hero R.: 89 (-59)

54. Becky H.: 84 (-75)

55. Brad R.: 80 (-48)

56. Baily T.: 77 (-45)

57. Quinn 1130: 73 (-61)

58. Mason A.: 72 (-38)

59. Klei R.: 70 (-78)

60. Jason S.: 64 (-29)

61. Christa M.: 64 (-40)

62. Peter F.: 63 (-55)

63. Brent E. #1: 56 (-77)

64. Ally H.: 44 (-88)

65. Dennis R.: 37 (-75)

66. Tim N.: 35 (-7)

…and the updated net points standings:

1. CAAT 3: 183

1. CAAT 5: 183

3. Andrew Du.: 177

4. Michelle L.: 176

5. CAAT 1: 163

6. Steve D.: 161

7. Larry G.: 159

8. Kylar G.: 158

9. CAAT 2: 156

9. CAAT 4: 156

11. Rich F.: 152

12. Mark B.: 151

13. Hutch H.: 149

14. Hurley 357: 148

15. Brian K.: 146

15. Harrell R. #1: 146

17. Jim W.: 144

18. Matt M.: 140

18. Harrell R. #2: 140

20. Scott H. #2: 135

21. Pete J. #1: 134

22. Dan E.: 133

23. Grant F.: 132

24. Eric K.: 126

25. Miela 314: 121

25. Mike N.: 121

27. Brett G.: 117

28. Pete J. #2: 114

29. Otis L.: 113

30. Dylan B.: 110

31. Marc R. #1: 107

32. Scott H. #1: 103

32. Mike W.: 103

34. Mike S.: 101

34. Paul K.: 101

36. Emily T.: 99

37. Jay H. #1: 97

37. Jay H. #2: 97

39. Marc R. #2: 94

40. Kylee T.: 92

41. Brett W.: 90

42. Ryan W.: 83

43. Dustin B.: 82

44. Fr. Guido S. #2: 77

45. Matt N.: 76

45. Adam E.: 76

47. Josiah T.: 75

48. Brent E. #2: 71

49. Dan D.: 60

50. Fr. Guido S. #1: 53

51. Dave M.: 43

52. Jason S.: 35

53. Mason A.: 34

54. Brad R.: 32

54. Baily T.: 32

56. Hero R.: 30

57. Tim N.: 28

58. Christa M.: 24

59. Quinn 1130: 12

60. Becky H.: 9

61. Peter F.: 8

62. Klei R.: -8

63. Brent E. #1: -21

64. Vincent W.: -34

65. Dennis R.: -38

66. Ally H.: -44

Mercifully, ESPN decided to only schedule one game tomorrow.  Ideally, they would only schedule one or at most two games every day for 3+ weeks.  That would make my life a lot less hectic, but ESPN doesn’t care what I want.

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Vegas Line: Marshall -12

Median Pick: Marshall for 33.5

Picks for Marshall: 60 (Average points: 29.38)

Picks for Connecticut: 6 (Average points: 16.33)

Yuck.  This one looks ugly.  This currently ranks as the bowl with the 6th most points on it.  We’ve already 2 of the top 5 played (Frisco / Bahamas).  Marshall has the 7th most points wagered on it.  2 of the top 6 have already won, and another 2 of the top 6 are Michigan and Georgia who may wind up playing 2 games.  Connecticut has the 5th fewest points wagered on it.  It makes me think that it’s either going to be an upset that will go down in the annals of Bowl pool history or a total snooze-fest.  Given that they are putting it on during a weekday afternoon, I know which way ESPN is leaning on that one.

For those that don’t know, I am a total college basketball junkie.  During the season, I keep a top 25 that I calculate based on the results of the season so far.  As of today, my #1 team in the country is Connecticut.  May I recommend to anyone that is a fan of the Huskies – focus on the basketball team.  They are going to be much better than the football team.

Good luck everyone!!!!