Thursday, December 22, 2022

Advice from Littlefinger edition

 “Chaos isn’t a pit.  Chaos is a ladder.  Many who try to climb it fail and never get to try again.  The fall breaks them.  And some are given a chance to climb, and they refuse…. Only the ladder is real.  The climb is all there is.”

I’m guessing a bunch of you know this quote.  It may be a little heavy-handed and over the top to apply to a NCAA football confident pool, but it’s a great quote, and it kind of applies.  The people that will do good in the pool will take advantage of days like today.  If anyone ever asks me what the secret is to winning a pool like this, I say 2 things.  The first is a tautology, which is whatever strategy results in your winning, that was the right one.  My second piece of advice is that you have to pick some upsets, and those upsets probably have to hit.  The trick there is not to pick too many or you lose out on easy points, or too few, so that someone more daring makes up too much ground on you.  It’s very hard to determine what the balance is, but that’s what makes it fun.

With that backdrop, it’s probably not hard to figure out what happened today.  Air Force beat Baylor.  I had a suspicion they would when I saw the line movement within the week, but they still had to actually play the game.  If you recall, I was calling yesterday’s game the upset of the pool so far.  Well, today’s far surpasses it as far as the pool goes.  On paper, it wasn’t that big of an upset (3.5 point spread), but in the pool, it was huge.  Only 11.33% of the points wagered on this game were won.  Baylor had the 15th most points wagered on it, while Air Force was only 73rd.  Baylor has the most points lost on it, and Air Force has the fewest points won on it so far.

The points standings don’t change much because not many people actually got points, but the net points changed quite a bit.

1. CAAT 3: 253 (-12)

2. Michelle L.: 251 (-73)

3. Mark B.: 248 (-67)

4. Hutch H.: 237 (-94)

5. Marc R. #2: 237 (-110)

6. Kylee T.: 234 (-76)

7. Rich F.: 234 (-85)

8. CAAT 5: 232 (-33)

9. Jim W.: 232 (-94)

10. Grant F.: 228 (-116)

11. Steve D.: 222 (-68)

12. Harrell R. #1: 222 (-80)

13. Andrew Du.: 220 (-61)

14. Harrell R. #2: 219 (-83)

15. Mike S.: 217 (-132)

16. Pete J. #1: 214 (-85)

17. CAAT 1: 212 (-33)

18. CAAT 2: 212 (-69)

19. Scott H. #2: 210 (-54)

20. Brian K.: 206 (-94)

21. Matt N.: 206 (-103)

22. CAAT 4: 205 (-33)

23. Dylan B.: 202 (-117)

24. Larry G.: 201 (-89)

25. Otis L.: 198 (-89)

26. Matt M.: 198 (-95)

27. Scott H. #1: 197 (-90)

28. Mike N.: 194 (-54)

29. Pete J. #2: 193 (-106)

30. Kylar G.: 192 (-71)

31. Dan E.: 191 (-23)

32. Brett G.: 184 (-81)

33. Hurley 357: 179 (-56)

34. Dave M.: 179 (-117)

35. Paul K.: 178 (-84)

36. Brad R.: 176 (-54)

37. Eric K.: 176 (-68)

38. Miela 314: 176 (-94)

39. Ryan W.: 175 (-71)

40. Josiah T.: 174 (-85)

41. Jay H. #2: 172 (-70)

41. Jay H. #1: 172 (-70)

43. Marc R. #1: 171 (-23)

44. Mike W.: 171 (-54)

45. Hero R.: 165 (-104)

46. Emily T.: 152 (-100)

47. Dan D.: 149 (-32)

48. Fr. Guido S. #1: 149 (-83)

49. Adam E.: 147 (-68)

50. Brett W.: 142 (-66)

51. Klei R.: 139 (-96)

52. Fr. Guido S. #2: 136 (-96)

53. Ally H.: 127 (-127)

54. Dustin B.: 118 (-148)

55. Brent E. #2: 116 (-79)

56. Becky H.: 116 (-144)

57. Vincent W.: 108 (-199)

58. Mason A.: 105 (-92)

59. Quinn 1130: 97 (-138)

60. Baily T.: 93 (-75)

61. Jason S.: 86 (-61)

62. Peter F.: 84 (-99)

63. Brent E. #1: 75 (-120)

64. Tim N.: 73 (-22)

65. Christa M.: 70 (-49)

66. Dennis R.: 58 (-144)

…net points:

1. CAAT 3: 241

2. CAAT 5: 199

3. Mark B.: 181

4. CAAT 1: 179

5. Michelle L.: 178

6. CAAT 4: 172

7. Dan E.: 168

8. Andrew Du.: 159

9. Kylee T.: 158

10. Scott H. #2: 156

11. Steve D.: 154

12. Rich F.: 149

13. Marc R. #1: 148

14. Hutch H.: 143

14. CAAT 2: 143

16. Harrell R. #1: 142

17. Mike N.: 140

18. Jim W.: 138

19. Harrell R. #2: 136

20. Pete J. #1: 129

21. Marc R. #2: 127

22. Hurley 357: 123

23. Brad R.: 122

24. Kylar G.: 121

25. Mike W.: 117

25. Dan D.: 117

27. Grant F.: 112

27. Brian K.: 112

27. Larry G.: 112

30. Otis L.: 109

31. Eric K.: 108

32. Scott H. #1: 107

33. Ryan W.: 104

34. Matt N.: 103

34. Matt M.: 103

34. Brett G.: 103

37. Jay H. #2: 102

37. Jay H. #1: 102

39. Paul K.: 94

40. Josiah T.: 89

41. Pete J. #2: 87

42. Mike S.: 85

42. Dylan B.: 85

44. Miela 314: 82

45. Adam E.: 79

46. Brett W.: 76

47. Fr. Guido S. #1: 66

48. Dave M.: 62

49. Hero R.: 61

50. Emily T.: 52

51. Tim N.: 51

52. Klei R.: 43

53. Fr. Guido S. #2: 40

54. Brent E. #2: 37

55. Jason S.: 25

56. Christa M.: 21

57. Baily T.: 18

58. Mason A.: 13

59. Ally H.: 0

60. Peter F.: -15

61. Becky H.: -28

62. Dustin B.: -30

63. Quinn 1130: -41

64. Brent E. #1: -45

65. Dennis R.: -86

66. Vincent W.: -91

The big winner of the day looks to be CAAT 3, who broke ranks with the rest of the CAAT family and took Air Force for 21 points.  That puts them 42 net points clear of 2nd place right now.  A lot of games to go, but that’s a good start.

Two games tomorrow:

Independence Bowl

Vegas Line: Houston -7

Median Pick: Houston for 22

Picks for Houston: 53 (Average points: 22.96)

Picks for Louisiana: 13 (Average points: 14.31)

 


Based on the distribution, this game looks to be about the same as today’s game.  The big difference is that between the start of Bowl season and now, the spread has stayed pretty much where it is now.  Makes me thing that Houston aught to cruise.  Then again, that’s why they play the game.  I know I say this every year, but the Rajun’ Cajuns are a great nickname for a football team.  I feel like I root for them for the name alone.

Gasparilla Bowl

Vegas Line: Wake Forest -2.5

Median Pick: Wake Forest for 2 points

Picks for Wake Forest: 37 (average points: 16.95)

Picks for Missouri: 29 (average points: 15.24)

Every year, I’ve been making the same lame joke about not knowing what a “Gasparilla” is.  Well, this bowl game has been around enough now for me to know that it’s some kind of pirate-themed boat parade.  Why that deserves to have a football game named after it, who knows?  But, the answer to all your sports-related questions is “money”.  Someone put up the money, so a bowl game appears.  I would be twmpted to say that the distribution of picks around this game is almost uniform.  That makes sense given how close people seem to think it’s going to be.  For my money, I went hard on Missouri, so that bar you see way out in the tail on the Missouri side?  That’s me.  I’m trying to use Missouri as my next rung.

Good luck everybody!!!!


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