Initial Probabilities

Happy New Year everyone!!!  It's the time of the pool where I switch from counting up points and start looking at who is still mathematically alive for the 3 places.  I'll still keep track of the points, and I'll still post them every day, but I will spend most of my time looking at eliminations.

I was able to calculate the 1st place probabilities this morning, but I soon discovered some of the limitations of Excel, as the number of rows it took limited some of the functionality.  So, I had to wait until the first game was finished before I could reasonably calculate the 2nd and 3d place odds.

For those that unfamiliar with this, I assume that every remaining game is a 50/50 game, and then calculate how many points each entry would get in every possible scenario.

As I mentioned before, I was able to calculate the probabilities before the first game of the day, and unfortunately, the following sheets had no chance at winning even then:

Ally H.

Andrew D.

Andrew O.

Becky H.

Ben W.

Brad R.

Brent S. #2

Hal R. #2

Hutch H. #2

Klei R.

Mark N. #1

Matt N.

Michelle L. #2

Pete J. #2

Presley J.

Sally R.

Sarah G.

After the Peach Bowl, I was able to calculate all of the odds, and these sheets were eliminated for 1st place then:

Amos W.

Brett W.

Damien R. #2

Michelle L. #1

The following sheets were eliminated from 2nd or 3rd place contention after the Peach Bowl:

Ally H. (2nd, 3rd)

Andrew D. (2nd, 3rd)

Becky H. (2nd, 3rd)

Brad R. (2nd, 3rd)

Brett W. (2nd)

Damien R. #2 (2nd)

Hutch H. #2 (2nd)

Klei R. (2nd, 3rd)

Mark N. #1 (2nd)

Matt N. (2nd)

Michelle L. #2 (2nd)

Pete J. #2 (2nd, 3rd)

Presley J. (2nd, 3rd)

Sally R. (2nd, 3rd)

Then we had the upset loss of Arizona to Boise State, which did amazingly little as far as eliminations:

Amos W.  (2nd, 3rd)

Andrew O.  (2nd)

Dylan B. (1st)

Matt N. (3rd)

Pete J. #1  (1st, 2nd)

Then we had the second biggest upset of the pool (based on median pick) as Georgia Tech beat Mississippi State.  That knocked the following people out of the following places:

Brent S. #2 (2nd)

Damien R. #2 (3rd)

Dylan B. (2nd)

Hutch H. #2 (3rd)

Jim W. (2nd)

Lance L. (1st)

Mandi A. (1st)

Ryan G. (1st)

Sarah G. (2nd)

Scott H. #1 (1st)

That leaves us with only 12 people that are eliminated from all contention, and 44 people that can win at least something.

Here are the points standings:

1. CBS Hinnen: 385 (-186)

2. Ray R.: 376 (-184)

3. Mike W.: 366 (-191)

4. CBS Fornelli: 359 (-182)

5. Adam E.: 354 (-173)

6. Mark N. #2: 349 (-150)

7. Daniel D.: 349 (-179)

8. Ryan W.: 343 (-200)

9. Hal R. #1: 339 (-183)

10. Hal R. #3: 336 (-203)

11. Mike S.: 329 (-167)

12. Hutch H. #1: 327 (-189)

13. Hal R. #2: 325 (-197)

14. Ryan G.: 323 (-179)

15. Brent E. #1: 320 (-173)

16. Andrew O.: 317 (-238)

17. Scott H. #1: 315 (-215)

18. Sarah G.: 313 (-182)

19. Dustin B.: 312 (-138)

20. Brett W.: 311 (-249)

21. Brent S. #1: 310 (-222)

22. Scott H. #2: 308 (-164)

23. Hutch H. #2: 307 (-198)

24. Carl B.: 304 (-154)

25. Brent E. #2: 303 (-191)

27. Marc R.: 300 (-226)

28. Pete J. #1: 300 (-239)

26. Kevin W.: 300 (-165)

29. Klei R.: 299 (-268)

30. Brent S. #2: 298 (-199)

32. Pete J. #2: 297 (-242)

31. Chad L.: 297 (-203)

33. Damien R. #2: 295 (-265)

34. Mark N. #1: 293 (-213)

35. Ben W.: 291 (-264)

36. Chad C.: 290 (-110)

37. Lance L.: 286 (-199)

38. Jim W.: 285 (-275)

39. Amos W.: 281 (-256)

40. Andrew D.: 281 (-294)

41. Bruce G.: 279 (-276)

42. Ally H.: 278 (-316)

43. Matt N.: 276 (-232)

44. Damien R. #1: 273 (-171)

45. Dave M.: 272 (-198)

46. Michelle L. #1: 264 (-210)

47. Michelle L. #2: 257 (-233)

48. Tim N.: 255 (-255)

49. Presley J.: 249 (-278)

50. Mandi A.: 247 (-235)

51. Becky H.: 241 (-293)

52. Brad R.: 232 (-274)

53. Jay H. #2: 210 (-198)

54. Sally R.: 201 (-270)

55. Dylan B.: 199 (-214)

56. Jay H. #1: 176 (-202)

...and net points:

1. CBS Hinnen: 199

1. Mark N. #2: 199

3. Ray R.: 192

4. Adam E.: 181

5. Chad C.: 180

6. CBS Fornelli: 177

7. Mike W.: 175

8. Dustin B.: 174

9. Daniel D.: 170

10. Mike S.: 162

11. Hal R. #1: 156

12. Carl B.: 150

13. Brent E. #1: 147

14. Ryan G.: 144

14. Scott H. #2: 144

16. Ryan W.: 143

17. Hutch H. #1: 138

18. Kevin W.: 135

19. Hal R. #3: 133

20. Sarah G.: 131

21. Hal R. #2: 128

22. Brent E. #2: 112

23. Hutch H. #2: 109

24. Damien R. #1: 102

25. Scott H. #1: 100

26. Brent S. #2: 99

27. Chad L.: 94

28. Brent S. #1: 88

29. Lance L.: 87

30. Mark N. #1: 80

31. Andrew O.: 79

32. Marc R.: 74

32. Dave M.: 74

34. Brett W.: 62

35. Pete J. #1: 61

36. Pete J. #2: 55

37. Michelle L. #1: 54

38. Matt N.: 44

39. Klei R.: 31

40. Damien R. #2: 30

41. Ben W.: 27

42. Amos W.: 25

43. Michelle L. #2: 24

44. Mandi A.: 12

44. Jay H. #2: 12

46. Jim W.: 10

47. Bruce G.: 3

48. Tim N.: 0

49. Andrew D.: -13

50. Dylan B.: -15

51. Jay H. #1: -26

52. Presley J.: -29

53. Ally H.: -38

54. Brad R.: -42

55. Becky H.: -52

56. Sally R.: -69

Now here are the probabilities of winning the pool for the people that are still alive.  For this, the only thing that matters is finishing 1st.  There will be probabilities in a little bit for 2nd and 3rd.  Just because you may be 2nd in probability for winning 1st, it doesn't mean that you are the favorite for 2nd place.  They are separate events for this purpose.

1.: Chad C. (18.7276%)

2.: Dustin B. (13.739%)

3.: Mark N. #2 (11.4237%)

4.: CBS Hinnen (9.0026%)

5.: Ray R. (6.1787%)

6.: Adam E. (5.4626%)

7.: Mike W. (5.3649%)

8.: Ryan W. (4.1992%)

9.: Kevin W. (3.3691%)

10.: Daniel D. (3.3589%)

11.: Damien R. #1 (2.7893%)

12.: Mike S. (2.6936%)

13.: Carl B. (2.657%)

14.: Brent E. #1 (2.3803%)

15.: Scott H. #2 (2.3376%)

16.: CBS Fornelli (2.1708%)

17.: Hal R. #1 (2.0568%)

18.: Jay H. #2 (0.7202%)

19.: Brent E. #2 (0.3906%)

20.: Hutch H. #1 (0.3601%)

21.: Tim N. (0.2319%)

22.: Chad L. (0.1647%)

23.: Marc R. (0.0915%)

24.: Brent S. #1 (0.0488%)

25.: Dave M. (0.0244%)

25.: Jim W. (0.0244%)

27.: Jay H. #1 (0.0122%)

27.: Hal R. #3 (0.0122%)

29.: Bruce G. (0.0061%)

...and the probabilities for 2nd place:

1.: Mark N. #2 (10.8846%)

2.: CBS Hinnen (9.3007%)

3.: Dustin B. (8.4716%)

4.: Adam E. (7.1258%)

5.: Ray R. (6.8359%)

6.: Chad C. (6.6691%)

7.: Mike W. (6.4982%)

8.: CBS Fornelli (6.0546%)

9.: Ryan W. (5.9051%)

10.: Brent E. #1 (4.2724%)

11.: Daniel D. (4.0629%)

12.: Mike S. (3.9957%)

13.: Hal R. #1 (3.7902%)

14.: Kevin W. (3.542%)

15.: Carl B. (3.1392%)

16.: Scott H. #2 (2.6184%)

17.: Damien R. #1 (2.3193%)

18.: Hutch H. #1 (0.9033%)

19.: Brent E. #2 (0.7507%)

20.: Jay H. #2 (0.5981%)

21.: Ryan G. (0.4394%)

22.: Brent S. #1 (0.354%)

23.: Chad L. (0.3173%)

24.: Tim N. (0.1922%)

25.: Dave M. (0.1892%)

26.: Marc R. (0.1403%)

26.: Bruce G. (0.1403%)

28.: Hal R. #3 (0.1342%)

28.: Hal R. #2 (0.1342%)

30.: Jay H. #1 (0.061%)

31.: Scott H. #1 (0.0549%)

32.: Lance L. (0.0366%)

32.: Mandi A. (0.0366%)

34.: Michelle L. #1 (0.0183%)

35.: Ben W. (0.0122%)

...and the probabilities for 3rd place:

1.: CBS Hinnen (9.1868%)

2.: Mark N. #2 (8.8155%)

3.: Ray R. (7.435%)

4.: Dustin B. (6.4554%)

5.: Adam E. (6.368%)

6.: CBS Fornelli (6.0506%)

7.: Mike W. (5.841%)

8.: Chad C. (5.192%)

9.: Brent E. #1 (5.1534%)

10.: Daniel D. (5.0476%)

11.: Ryan W. (4.7027%)

12.: Mike S. (4.6366%)

13.: Carl B. (3.9499%)

14.: Kevin W. (3.7495%)

15.: Hal R. #1 (3.6397%)

16.: Scott H. #2 (2.7587%)

17.: Damien R. #1 (2.2888%)

18.: Brent E. #2 (1.7578%)

19.: Hutch H. #1 (1.0609%)

20.: Ryan G. (0.9847%)

21.: Jay H. #2 (0.8544%)

22.: Chad L. (0.6652%)

23.: Brent S. #1 (0.592%)

24.: Hal R. #2 (0.5126%)

25.: Hal R. #3 (0.3662%)

26.: Dave M. (0.2522%)

27.: Scott H. #1 (0.2319%)

28.: Sarah G. (0.2258%)

29.: Bruce G. (0.1892%)

30.: Tim N. (0.1739%)

31.: Marc R. (0.1464%)

32.: Ben W. (0.1281%)

33.: Brett W. (0.122%)

34.: Mandi A. (0.0854%)

34.: Michelle L. #1 (0.0854%)

36.: Jim W. (0.061%)

37.: Andrew O. (0.0427%)

38.: Jay H. #1 (0.0366%)

38.: Brent S. #2 (0.0366%)

40.: Pete J. #1 (0.0305%)

41.: Dylan B. (0.0244%)

41.: Michelle L. #2 (0.0244%)

43.: Lance L. (0.0183%)

43.: Mark N. #1 (0.0183%)

Now that the math is over, here comes the fun part: the eliminations tomorrow.

There are 3 games pretty much going off at the same time, so I'm going to give the single game eliminations, but be aware that a combination of 2 or 3 games could knock you out of the pool.  But, just these games will for sure knock you out if they lose:

Outback Bowl

If Auburn wins:

   Ben W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Mark N. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

If Wisconsin wins:

Andrew O. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Brent S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Brett W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   Bruce G. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Chad L. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Dave M. is eliminated from 1st place contention.   Dylan B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   Hal R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Hal R. #3 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention. Lance L. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Mandi A. is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Cotton Bowl

If Michigan State wins:

Andrew O. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Ben W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Bruce G. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Dave M. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Dylan B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Hal R. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention. Hal R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Hal R. #3 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention. Lance L. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Mandi A. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Mark N. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

If Baylor wins:

Brent S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Jim W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Marc R. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention. Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Citrus Bowl

If Missouri wins:

Ben W. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Bruce G. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Chad L. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Dave M. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Marc R. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Tim N. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

If Minnesota wins:

Brent S. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Dylan B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Hal R. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Hal R. #3 is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Hutch H. #1 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Jay H. #1 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Jim W. is eliminated from 1st & 3rd place contention. Lance L. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Mandi A. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Mark N. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Michelle L. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

So that's the entire list of single game eliminations.  As I mentioned before, a combination could knock you out of contention.  I will notify everyone of what knocked them out when I send out an update after the games are over.

I also am not sure what I'm doing tomorrow, so I may not be entirely expedient with the updates.  I will send out the most current information as I have when I do post something.

Good luck and Happy New Year!!!!