Bowl Pool Wrap-Up

I may have mentioned this in the last post, but tonight's National Championship game really didn't have much of an effect on who won what as 1st and 2nd were already decided.  Third was up for grabs, and it was won by Ryan W.  Congratulations.

Here are the winners of the pool:

1. Dustin B.
2. Mark N. #2
3. Ryan W.

For the first time in 3 years, one person didn't win 2 of the 3 places, so I won't have to enlist my consolidated payment rule.  That makes me happy.

As it turns out, tonight's game had even less riding it when you consider that only 2 people actually picked Ohio State to win, so the standings were largely unaffected.  The two people that predicted Ohio State would be the first National Champion were Tin N., who moved from 40th to 29th and Jim W., who moved from 38th to 25th.

One thought about the actual game.  Does Ohio State get into the Final 4 if the Big 12 has a Championship game?  I mean TCU and Baylor were the other contenders for the 4th spot, and my guess is that if they had a title game in that conference, the winner might have wound up as the 4th team.  Food for thought, Big 12 conference heads.....  (I'm sure they are reading this)

Here are the final rankings:

1. Dustin B.: 506 (-265)

2. Mark N. #2: 505 (-266)

3. Ryan W.: 482 (-289)

4. Kevin W.: 479 (-292)

5. CBS Hinnen: 477 (-294)

6. Damien R. #1: 470 (-301)

7. Scott H. #2: 469 (-302)

8. Adam E.: 459 (-312)

9. Daniel D.: 445 (-326)

9. Ryan G.: 445 (-326)

11. Michelle L. #2: 444 (-327)

12. Mike S.: 441 (-330)

12. Pete J. #1: 441 (-330)

14. Chad C.: 440 (-331)

15. Sarah G.: 439 (-332)

16. Scott H. #1: 436 (-335)

16. Mark N. #1: 436 (-335)

18. Carl B.: 434 (-337)

18. Hutch H. #2: 434 (-337)

20. Ray R.: 433 (-338)

21. Brent E. #1: 431 (-340)

22. Pete J. #2: 430 (-341)

23. Mike W.: 429 (-342)

24. Matt N.: 425 (-346)

25. Jim W.: 424 (-347)

26. Amos W.: 422 (-349)

27. Jay H. #2: 421 (-350)

28. CBS Fornelli: 420 (-351)

29. Tim N.: 419 (-352)

29. Brent S. #2: 419 (-352)

31. Brett W.: 417 (-354)

32. Hal R. #2: 416 (-355)

33. Hutch H. #1: 415 (-356)

34. Brent E. #2: 413 (-358)

35. Chad L.: 410 (-361)

35. Hal R. #3: 410 (-361)

37. Andrew O.: 409 (-362)

38. Becky H.: 405 (-366)

39. Hal R. #1: 399 (-372)

40. Marc R.: 391 (-380)

41. Lance L.: 383 (-388)

42. Andrew D.: 382 (-389)

43. Klei R.: 378 (-393)

43. Brent S. #1: 378 (-393)

45. Damien R. #2: 371 (-400)

46. Ally H.: 369 (-402)

47. Dave M.: 366 (-405)

48. Michelle L. #1: 364 (-407)

49. Presley J.: 359 (-412)

50. Jay H. #1: 345 (-426)

51. Bruce G.: 340 (-431)

52. Ben W.: 339 (-432)

53. Sally R.: 338 (-433)

54. Brad R.: 336 (-435)

55. Mandi A.: 324 (-447)

56. Dylan B.: 320 (-451)

As a group, we only managed to get 53.58% of available points, which is actually pretty awful considering some of the bigger point spreads.  Based on our pick distribution, underdogs won outright in 21 of the 39 games, which may explain the poor picking by the group.  The 4 biggest upsets of the pool were:

Sugar Bowl: Median pick (Alabama for 32 points)(4th highest)
Music City Bowl: Median pick (LSU for 31 points)(5th highest)
Orange Bowl: Median pick (Mississippi State for 26.5 points)(11th highest)
Outback Bowl: Median pick (Auburn for 25 points)(12th highest)

Notice a pattern?  For anyone adopting a plan of picking against the SEC West, it looks like that would've worked very well for you.  For those scoring at home, only 2 people even went 3/4 in those games, and both did well, but finished out of the money (Chad C. and Damien R. #1).  26 people went 0/4, proving that most of us bought the SEC West hype.

Overall, the person that actually picked the most correct games was CBS Hinnen, who just missed 3rd place.  He got 25/39 games correct.  4 people managed 23, so it wasn't close for the overall picks title (Chad C., Dustin B., Kevin W., Scott H. #2).

The person that made the most effective use of their picks was Mark N. #2.  He only managed to correctly guess 21 games, but still finished 2nd because he had a pool best average 24.05 points per win.  Sadly, my Mom was on the other end of that spectrum.  She guessed 20 games correctly, but only won 16.90 points per win - proving once again that it's not entirely about picking who will win, but about getting the points correct as well.

As for our Champion, it appears as though he adopted a modified late-weighting strategy, pitting 7 of his top 10 points picks at the end of the season.  He managed to go 8/10 on those top 10 picks, only losing Kansas State and Auburn.  He bottomed out after the San Diego State loss in the Poinsettia Bowl at 51st place, but then slowly climbed up to 14th after the Belk Bowl.  In a rare misstep, he took Maryland in the Foster Farms Bowl for 3 points when the median was Stanford for 37.  That 3 point loss dropped him all the way back to 33rd.  A further setback in the Citrus Bowl (Minnesota) dropped him from 20th to 36th, but a late charge finally brought him into the top 10 after 34 points on Oklahoma State in the Cactus Bowl took him from 17th to 6th.  38 on Florida in the Bimingham Bowl took him all the way to 2nd and he took 1st for good with the Toledo win in the GoDaddy Bowl.  Good job Dustin.  It shows that those throwaway bowls mean quite a bit if you can pick them correctly.

We had 7 people who were in first or tied for first after at least one bowl game.  CBS Hinnen was in first after 16, but still finished out of the money.  Brett W. was in 1st after 7 games between the Heart of Dallas Bowl and the Pinstripe Bowl before fading to 31st by the end of the pool.  That's still better than Jay H. #1 who adopted the dreaded 1-39 point strategy, only to see him drop to 55th after the 2nd game (New Mexico Bowl) and never make it out of the 50s for the entirety of the pool.  Ouch....

Anyway, it's getting late and I want to wrap up this Bowl pool.  I hope everyone enjoyed it.  IT was fun for me, even though I watch entirely too much football.  Amazingly for me, this is not even my favorite pool.  I hope everyone can get into my annual March Madness pool.  This one is really just an appetizer for that one.  This year looks especially interesting as Kentucky could be undefeated, and a lot of top ranked teams have been upset by also rans already.  Good times for upset-loving people like me.

Congratulations to everyone, especially the winners!!!  See you in March!!!!!

After Birgmingham Bowl

We are getting a little more clarity on who is going to win what as the games tick off.  There are only 2 games left, and we can already determine some important things.  First off, Mark N. #2 is going to win something.  He is eliminated from 3rd place, but only because he is guaranteed either 1st or 2nd.

Second, as often happens in pools like this, the Championship means something, but it won't determine who wins the pool.  That honor goes to the GoDaddy Bowl.  If Arkansas State wins, Mark N. #2 will win the pool.  If Toledo wins the game, Dustin B. wins the pool.  It's that simple.

Here are the points, for those interested:

1. Mark N. #2: 505 (-215)

2. Dustin B.: 471 (-235)

3. Damien R. #1: 470 (-270)

4. CBS Hinnen: 465 (-264)

5. Kevin W.: 454 (-262)

6. Ryan W.: 447 (-259)

7. Adam E.: 447 (-282)

8. Daniel D.: 445 (-287)

9. Scott H. #2: 438 (-272)

10. Carl B.: 434 (-301)

11. Ryan G.: 433 (-296)

11. Ray R.: 433 (-296)

13. Brent E. #1: 431 (-288)

14. Pete J. #1: 429 (-300)

15. Sarah G.: 427 (-302)

16. Michelle L. #2: 424 (-297)

17. Matt N.: 423 (-316)

18. Mike S.: 422 (-300)

19. CBS Fornelli: 420 (-307)

20. Scott H. #1: 419 (-305)

21. Pete J. #2: 418 (-311)

22. Brent S. #2: 418 (-322)

23. Brett W.: 417 (-301)

24. Mark N. #1: 415 (-305)

25. Brent E. #2: 413 (-306)

26. Hutch H. #2: 413 (-307)

27. Amos W.: 411 (-319)

28. Hal R. #2: 410 (-325)

29. Andrew O.: 406 (-332)

30. Chad C.: 405 (-301)

31. Hal R. #3: 404 (-331)

32. Mike W.: 400 (-312)

33. Hal R. #1: 399 (-336)

34. Hutch H. #1: 398 (-326)

35. Jim W.: 394 (-345)

36. Marc R.: 390 (-350)

37. Tim N.: 389 (-322)

38. Chad L.: 387 (-331)

39. Jay H. #2: 385 (-320)

40. Becky H.: 385 (-336)

41. Lance L.: 375 (-358)

42. Brent S. #1: 371 (-363)

43. Klei R.: 368 (-363)

44. Michelle L. #1: 364 (-350)

45. Damien R. #2: 361 (-370)

46. Presley J.: 359 (-375)

47. Andrew D.: 357 (-359)

48. Dave M.: 348 (-375)

49. Ally H.: 346 (-372)

50. Bruce G.: 339 (-401)

51. Ben W.: 336 (-402)

52. Dylan B.: 320 (-387)

53. Sally R.: 314 (-403)

54. Jay H. #1: 307 (-396)

55. Brad R.: 298 (-405)

56. Mandi A.: 298 (-417)

There are only 4 ways the final 2 games can play out, so here are the payouts for each of them:

1. Arkansas State wins the GoDaddy Bowl, Oregon wins the National Championship

                Mark N. #2 wins

                Dustin B. gets 2nd place.

                CBS Hinnen gets 3rd place.

2. Arkansas State wins the GoDaddy Bowl, Ohio State wins the National Championship

                Mark N. #2 wins

                Winner of the tiebreaker between Dustin B. / Damien R. #1 gets 2nd place.

                Loser of the tiebreaker between Dustin B. / Damien R. #1 gets 3rd place.

3. Toledo wins the GoDaddy Bowl, Oregon wins the National Championship

                Dustin B. wins

                Mark N. #2 gets 2nd place.

                CBS Hinnen gets 3rd place.

4. Toledo wins the GoDaddy Bowl, Ohio State wins the National Championship.

                Dustin B. wins

                Mark N. #2 gets 2nd place.

                Ryan W. gets 3rd place.

Those are the only ways it can play out.  As far as the tiebreaker goes, I'm glad it won't amount to someone not getting any money if it happens.

I'll be back later with a recap of the pool.  It's been an interesting pool thus far.

Good Luck!!!!!!

Bowl Pool - 3 games left

Another day, another 4 bowl games.  We are certainly headed into the home stretch as we only have 3 games left on the schedule, and only 6 people are alive to win anything at this point.

Here are the updated points standings:

1. Mark N. #2: 473 (-215)

2. CBS Hinnen: 450 (-264)

3. Ryan W.: 447 (-250)

4. Adam E.: 447 (-266)

5. Damien R. #1: 440 (-270)

6. Dustin B.: 433 (-235)

7. Ray R.: 433 (-292)

8. Kevin W.: 428 (-262)

9. Daniel D.: 420 (-287)

10. Scott H. #2: 413 (-272)

11. Scott H. #1: 404 (-305)

12. Ryan G.: 403 (-296)

13. Matt N.: 403 (-316)

14. Brent E. #1: 402 (-288)

15. Mike S.: 402 (-300)

16. Andrew O.: 402 (-332)

17. Mike W.: 400 (-291)

18. Michelle L. #2: 398 (-297)

19. Hutch H. #1: 398 (-325)

20. Pete J. #1: 397 (-300)

21. Carl B.: 397 (-301)

22. Sarah G.: 397 (-302)

23. CBS Fornelli: 395 (-307)

24. Jim W.: 394 (-334)

25. Brett W.: 393 (-301)

26. Hal R. #3: 392 (-331)

27. Hutch H. #2: 386 (-307)

28. Pete J. #2: 386 (-311)

29. Jay H. #2: 385 (-293)

30. Brent E. #2: 384 (-306)

31. Marc R.: 384 (-350)

32. Mark N. #1: 383 (-305)

33. Brent S. #2: 383 (-322)

34. Amos W.: 381 (-319)

35. Hal R. #2: 381 (-325)

36. Tim N.: 376 (-322)

37. Chad C.: 371 (-301)

38. Hal R. #1: 370 (-336)

39. Brent S. #1: 369 (-363)

40. Klei R.: 368 (-361)

41. Michelle L. #1: 364 (-335)

42. Damien R. #2: 361 (-368)

43. Becky H.: 359 (-336)

44. Chad L.: 357 (-331)

45. Andrew D.: 354 (-359)

46. Lance L.: 349 (-358)

47. Ally H.: 337 (-372)

48. Bruce G.: 337 (-401)

49. Ben W.: 336 (-367)

50. Presley J.: 326 (-375)

51. Dave M.: 315 (-375)

52. Brad R.: 298 (-368)

53. Mandi A.: 298 (-386)

54. Sally R.: 286 (-403)

55. Dylan B.: 283 (-387)

56. Jay H. #1: 270 (-396)

Here are the updated probabilities for 1st place:

1.: Mark N. #2 (50%)

2.: Dustin B. (25%)

3.: Ryan W. (12.5%)

3.: Adam E. (12.5%)

...and 2nd place:

1.: Adam E. (37.5%)

1.: Mark N. #2 (37.5%)

3.: Dustin B. (18.75%)

4.: Damien R. #1 (6.25%)

...and 3rd place:

1.: CBS Hinnen (37.5%)

2.: Ryan W. (25%)

3.: Dustin B. (18.75%)

4.: Mark N. #2 (12.5%)

5.: Damien R. #1 (6.25%)

I noticed that the CBS "Expert" was knocked pretty far down the probabilities if not the actual point standings after that last game.  It's nice to know that he won't win, even though that sheet could still get 3rd and I'd give all the winnings to charity.

There's  still another game to go tomorrow.  The Birmingham Bowl, which for the life of me, I still don't understand why UAB was NOT invited to, especially given that they were bowl eligible and they were getting rid of the football program after this season.  You could have easily sold out whatever stadium they are playing in.  As it is, East Carolina and Florida are playing.  Here are the eliminations:

If Florida Wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Mark N. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If East Carolina wins:

Damien R.  #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Dustin B. is eliminated from 1st  & 2nd place contention.

For those that are interested, I can already say that Mark N. #2 is entirely dependent on the winner of the GoDaddy Bowl.  If Arkansas wins that game, regardless of the outcomes of any other games, he will win the pool.  If Toledo wins, he can't get 1st place at all.

Also, there is one scenario left that would require a tie breaker.  If Florida, Arkansas State and Ohio State all win, a tie-breaker will be required between Damien R. #1 and Dustin B.  I hate tie breakers, so I hope it doesn't come to that, but there's still a chance that it will.

Good luck to everyone!!!!