After Sugar Bowl

The Sugar Bowl sure was exciting, and I'll admit a little unexpected.  Based on the median pick, this was the biggest upset of the pool.  As frequent reader know, I am a big fan of upsets.  I think it rewards people for taking chances, which is something that I like to do.  I already went over the eliminations for the Sugar Bowl in the last post, so I won't go over those again, but I will review where we are so far.

There are still 19 entries alive for at least 1 of the 3 payouts.  Here are the points standings:

1. Mark N. #2: 425 (-193)

2. Ray R.: 420 (-252)

3. Ryan W.: 415 (-215)

4. Daniel D.: 413 (-234)

5. CBS Hinnen: 403 (-227)

6. Mike W.: 390 (-237)

7. Brent E. #1: 387 (-231)

8. Hal R. #3: 387 (-292)

9. Adam E.: 383 (-244)

10. Ryan G.: 383 (-253)

11. Hutch H. #1: 383 (-258)

12. CBS Fornelli: 379 (-241)

13. Hal R. #2: 376 (-286)

15. Scott H. #2: 373 (-230)

16. Sarah G.: 373 (-259)

14. Kevin W.: 373 (-217)

17. Scott H. #1: 372 (-262)

18. Chad C.: 371 (-169)

19. Hal R. #1: 370 (-274)

20. Brent E. #2: 369 (-249)

21. Brent S. #1: 369 (-266)

24. Amos W.: 368 (-277)

22. Dustin B.: 368 (-199)

23. Brent S. #2: 368 (-269)

28. Andrew O.: 368 (-325)

25. Pete J. #1: 368 (-283)

27. Marc R.: 368 (-300)

25. Pete J. #2: 368 (-283)

29. Hutch H. #2: 364 (-269)

30. Carl B.: 362 (-247)

31. Mark N. #1: 360 (-270)

32. Matt N.: 358 (-294)

33. Michelle L. #2: 357 (-268)

34. Mike S.: 356 (-266)

35. Damien R. #2: 353 (-315)

36. Klei R.: 350 (-333)

37. Brett W.: 349 (-284)

38. Lance L.: 349 (-287)

39. Damien R. #1: 336 (-232)

40. Becky H.: 332 (-318)

41. Ally H.: 330 (-363)

42. Jim W.: 329 (-308)

43. Michelle L. #1: 327 (-291)

44. Tim N.: 327 (-311)

45. Ben W.: 317 (-333)

46. Dave M.: 315 (-283)

47. Presley J.: 313 (-338)

48. Jay H. #2: 302 (-261)

49. Andrew D.: 302 (-300)

50. Brad R.: 298 (-308)

51. Chad L.: 297 (-300)

52. Mandi A.: 289 (-330)

53. Bruce G.: 284 (-394)

54. Sally R.: 267 (-355)

55. Dylan B.: 257 (-292)

56. Jay H. #1: 237 (-291)

...and the net points, although I haven't subtracted 30 points off for Florida State or Alabama in the Championship game yet:

1. Mark N. #2: 232

2. Chad C.: 202

3. Ryan W.: 200

4. Daniel D.: 179

5. CBS Hinnen: 176

6. Dustin B.: 169

7. Ray R.: 168

8. Brent E. #1: 156

8. Kevin W.: 156

10. Mike W.: 153

11. Scott H. #2: 143

12. Adam E.: 139

13. CBS Fornelli: 138

14. Ryan G.: 130

15. Hutch H. #1: 125

16. Brent E. #2: 120

17. Carl B.: 115

18. Sarah G.: 114

19. Scott H. #1: 110

20. Damien R. #1: 104

21. Brent S. #1: 103

22. Brent S. #2: 99

23. Hal R. #1: 96

24. Hal R. #3: 95

24. Hutch H. #2: 95

26. Amos W.: 91

27. Hal R. #2: 90

27. Mark N. #1: 90

27. Mike S.: 90

30. Michelle L. #2: 89

31. Pete J. #1: 85

31. Pete J. #2: 85

33. Marc R.: 68

34. Brett W.: 65

35. Matt N.: 64

36. Lance L.: 62

37. Andrew O.: 43

38. Jay H. #2: 41

39. Damien R. #2: 38

40. Michelle L. #1: 36

41. Dave M.: 32

42. Jim W.: 21

43. Klei R.: 17

44. Tim N.: 16

45. Becky H.: 14

46. Andrew D.: 2

47. Chad L.: -3

48. Brad R.: -10

49. Ben W.: -16

50. Presley J.: -25

51. Ally H.: -33

52. Dylan B.: -35

53. Mandi A.: -41

54. Jay H. #1: -54

55. Sally R.: -88

56. Bruce G.: -110

Here are the probabilities for 1st place:

1.: Mark N. #2 (42.1875%)

2.: Chad C. (14.8437%)

3.: Ryan W. (14.0625%)

4.: Dustin B. (11.7187%)

5.: CBS Hinnen (5.8593%)

6.: Daniel D. (4.6875%)

7.: Ray R. (2.3437%)

8.: Kevin W. (1.9531%)

9.: Scott H. #2 (0.7812%)

9.: Adam E. (0.7812%)

9.: Jay H. #2 (0.7812%)

...and the probabilities for 2nd place:

1.: Mark N. #2 (16.0156%)

2.: Dustin B. (13.6718%)

3.: CBS Hinnen (12.8906%)

4.: Chad C. (11.3281%)

5.: Brent E. #1 (10.5468%)

6.: Daniel D. (8.5937%)

7.: Ryan W. (7.4218%)

8.: Adam E. (6.25%)

9.: Mike W. (3.9062%)

10.: Jay H. #2 (2.3437%)

11.: Kevin W. (1.9531%)

12.: Ray R. (1.5625%)

12.: Scott H. #2 (1.5625%)

14.: Damien R. #1 (1.1718%)

15.: Brent S. #1 (0.7812%)

...and the probabilities for 3rd place:

1.: Daniel D. (16.7968%)

2.: Mark N. #2 (13.6718%)

3.: Ryan W. (12.5%)

4.: CBS Hinnen (10.9375%)

5.: Dustin B. (9.7656%)

6.: Brent E. #1 (7.8125%)

7.: Chad C. (6.6406%)

8.: Adam E. (5.4687%)

9.: Mike W. (3.9062%)

10.: Kevin W. (2.3437%)

11.: Ray R. (1.9531%)

11.: Carl B. (1.9531%)

13.: CBS Fornelli (1.5625%)

14.: Damien R. #1 (1.1718%)

14.: Jay H. #2 (1.1718%)

16.: Scott H. #2 (0.7812%)

16.: Hutch H. #1 (0.7812%)

16.: Jim W. (0.7812%)

But wait, you say, there are 4 more games tomorrow with lesser teams to slog through on our way to the big Championship game.  That's true.  Some of them probably carry more importance than you may realize, especially those of you that are alive, but are just clinging on to small probabilities of winning.

I will be in the office tomorrow, so I won't get much of a chance to watch of update anything at least for the first 2 games, so I'll just give the single game eliminations for those.  A caveat, as always, a combination of teams could cause you to be eliminated even if no one game could.

For the Armed Forces Bowl

If Houston wins:

Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.   CBS Fornelli is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   Daniel D. is eliminated from 1st place contention. Hutch H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Jim W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Kevin W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.   Ray R. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

If Pittsburgh wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 1st place contention.  Damien R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

For the TaxSlayer Bowl

If Iowa wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 1st place contention.   Carl B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   Damien R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Hutch H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention. Jim W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Kevin W. is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

If Tennessee wins:

Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd place contention.   CBS Fornelli is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   Daniel D. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Jay H. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Ray R. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 1st, 2nd & 3rd place contention.

That's the list.  We're coming down to the wire.  There are only 7 games to go, and someone has to win.  I should be back in time to post an update about the Alamo Bowl, so keep an eye out for that.  I know there is diminishing interest once everyone is eliminated, but I am somewhat forced to put something out as administrator of this event.

Good luck to everyone and Happy New Year!!!!