Bowl Pool - 3 games left

Another day, another 4 bowl games.  We are certainly headed into the home stretch as we only have 3 games left on the schedule, and only 6 people are alive to win anything at this point.

Here are the updated points standings:

1. Mark N. #2: 473 (-215)

2. CBS Hinnen: 450 (-264)

3. Ryan W.: 447 (-250)

4. Adam E.: 447 (-266)

5. Damien R. #1: 440 (-270)

6. Dustin B.: 433 (-235)

7. Ray R.: 433 (-292)

8. Kevin W.: 428 (-262)

9. Daniel D.: 420 (-287)

10. Scott H. #2: 413 (-272)

11. Scott H. #1: 404 (-305)

12. Ryan G.: 403 (-296)

13. Matt N.: 403 (-316)

14. Brent E. #1: 402 (-288)

15. Mike S.: 402 (-300)

16. Andrew O.: 402 (-332)

17. Mike W.: 400 (-291)

18. Michelle L. #2: 398 (-297)

19. Hutch H. #1: 398 (-325)

20. Pete J. #1: 397 (-300)

21. Carl B.: 397 (-301)

22. Sarah G.: 397 (-302)

23. CBS Fornelli: 395 (-307)

24. Jim W.: 394 (-334)

25. Brett W.: 393 (-301)

26. Hal R. #3: 392 (-331)

27. Hutch H. #2: 386 (-307)

28. Pete J. #2: 386 (-311)

29. Jay H. #2: 385 (-293)

30. Brent E. #2: 384 (-306)

31. Marc R.: 384 (-350)

32. Mark N. #1: 383 (-305)

33. Brent S. #2: 383 (-322)

34. Amos W.: 381 (-319)

35. Hal R. #2: 381 (-325)

36. Tim N.: 376 (-322)

37. Chad C.: 371 (-301)

38. Hal R. #1: 370 (-336)

39. Brent S. #1: 369 (-363)

40. Klei R.: 368 (-361)

41. Michelle L. #1: 364 (-335)

42. Damien R. #2: 361 (-368)

43. Becky H.: 359 (-336)

44. Chad L.: 357 (-331)

45. Andrew D.: 354 (-359)

46. Lance L.: 349 (-358)

47. Ally H.: 337 (-372)

48. Bruce G.: 337 (-401)

49. Ben W.: 336 (-367)

50. Presley J.: 326 (-375)

51. Dave M.: 315 (-375)

52. Brad R.: 298 (-368)

53. Mandi A.: 298 (-386)

54. Sally R.: 286 (-403)

55. Dylan B.: 283 (-387)

56. Jay H. #1: 270 (-396)

Here are the updated probabilities for 1st place:

1.: Mark N. #2 (50%)

2.: Dustin B. (25%)

3.: Ryan W. (12.5%)

3.: Adam E. (12.5%)

...and 2nd place:

1.: Adam E. (37.5%)

1.: Mark N. #2 (37.5%)

3.: Dustin B. (18.75%)

4.: Damien R. #1 (6.25%)

...and 3rd place:

1.: CBS Hinnen (37.5%)

2.: Ryan W. (25%)

3.: Dustin B. (18.75%)

4.: Mark N. #2 (12.5%)

5.: Damien R. #1 (6.25%)

I noticed that the CBS "Expert" was knocked pretty far down the probabilities if not the actual point standings after that last game.  It's nice to know that he won't win, even though that sheet could still get 3rd and I'd give all the winnings to charity.

There's  still another game to go tomorrow.  The Birmingham Bowl, which for the life of me, I still don't understand why UAB was NOT invited to, especially given that they were bowl eligible and they were getting rid of the football program after this season.  You could have easily sold out whatever stadium they are playing in.  As it is, East Carolina and Florida are playing.  Here are the eliminations:

If Florida Wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Mark N. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If East Carolina wins:

Damien R.  #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

Dustin B. is eliminated from 1st  & 2nd place contention.

For those that are interested, I can already say that Mark N. #2 is entirely dependent on the winner of the GoDaddy Bowl.  If Arkansas wins that game, regardless of the outcomes of any other games, he will win the pool.  If Toledo wins, he can't get 1st place at all.

Also, there is one scenario left that would require a tie breaker.  If Florida, Arkansas State and Ohio State all win, a tie-breaker will be required between Damien R. #1 and Dustin B.  I hate tie breakers, so I hope it doesn't come to that, but there's still a chance that it will.

Good luck to everyone!!!!