Before the Alamo Bowl

We are 2 games into today, and there were a lot of shake-ups in the standings, probably because a lot of people weighted the later games at the end heavier.

I posted the eliminations for the first game of the day yesterday, as well as the single game eliminations for the second game, but the combination of Pitt and Iowa losing has caused a few more eliminations to take place.

Here's the list of people that were eliminated because Iowa lost:

Chad C. (1st, 3rd)

Daniel D. (2nd)

Jay H. #2 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Ray R. (1st, 3d)

Scott H. #2 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

That leaves us only 11 people that are still alive to win anything.   Here are the points standings:

1. Mark N. #2: 473 (-193)

2. Ryan W.: 433 (-227)

3. Adam E.: 421 (-244)

4. Ray R.: 420 (-266)

5. CBS Hinnen: 418 (-227)

6. Daniel D.: 413 (-258)

7. Damien R. #1: 405 (-232)

8. Ryan G.: 403 (-266)

9. Matt N.: 403 (-294)

10. Brent E. #1: 402 (-248)

11. Kevin W.: 401 (-239)

12. Mike W.: 400 (-246)

13. Dustin B.: 399 (-199)

14. Hutch H. #1: 398 (-278)

16. Michelle L. #2: 397 (-268)

15. Carl B.: 397 (-265)

17. Sarah G.: 397 (-272)

18. Hal R. #3: 392 (-294)

19. Scott H. #2: 391 (-249)

20. Pete J. #2: 386 (-300)

20. Pete J. #1: 386 (-300)

22. Brent E. #2: 384 (-266)

25. Scott H. #1: 383 (-291)

23. Brent S. #2: 383 (-283)

23. Hutch H. #2: 383 (-283)

26. Hal R. #2: 381 (-288)

27. Brett W.: 380 (-284)

28. CBS Fornelli: 379 (-273)

29. Andrew O.: 374 (-330)

30. Mike S.: 373 (-282)

31. Mark N. #1: 372 (-279)

32. Chad C.: 371 (-232)

33. Hal R. #1: 370 (-299)

35. Amos W.: 369 (-315)

34. Brent S. #1: 369 (-314)

36. Marc R.: 368 (-336)

37. Jim W.: 364 (-322)

38. Klei R.: 357 (-334)

39. Damien R. #2: 353 (-348)

40. Lance L.: 349 (-322)

41. Michelle L. #1: 348 (-301)

42. Tim N.: 341 (-322)

43. Chad L.: 338 (-300)

44. Becky H.: 335 (-323)

46. Ally H.: 330 (-370)

45. Jay H. #2: 330 (-293)

48. Presley J.: 326 (-352)

47. Andrew D.: 326 (-327)

49. Ben W.: 317 (-363)

50. Dave M.: 315 (-334)

51. Brad R.: 298 (-324)

52. Mandi A.: 289 (-364)

53. Bruce G.: 284 (-401)

54. Dylan B.: 283 (-319)

55. Sally R.: 276 (-368)

56. Jay H. #1: 270 (-325)

It looks like Mark N. is building a pretty sizeable lead.  That is born out in the 1st place probabilities:

1.: Mark N. #2 (65.625%)

2.: Dustin B. (15.625%)

3.: Ryan W. (9.375%)

4.: CBS Hinnen (6.25%)

5.: Adam E. (3.125%)

...and the 2nd place probabilities:

1.: Dustin B. (20.3125%)

2.: Adam E. (18.75%)

3.: Mark N. #2 (17.1875%)

4.: CBS Hinnen (15.625%)

5.: Brent E. #1 (9.375%)

6.: Ryan W. (6.25%)

7.: Mike W. (4.6875%)

7.: Damien R. #1 (4.6875%)

9.: Chad C. (3.125%)

...and the 3rd place probabilities:

1.: Ryan W. (20.3125%)

2.: CBS Hinnen (15.625%)

3.: Mark N. #2 (14.0625%)

4.: Dustin B. (12.5%)

4.: Adam E. (12.5%)

6.: Daniel D. (7.8125%)

7.: Brent E. #1 (6.25%)

8.: Mike W. (4.6875%)

8.: Damien R. #1 (4.6875%)

10.: Carl B. (1.5625%)

If you add all three probabilities for Mark N. #2, he has about a 98% chance of winning something.  That's pretty impressive.

There are still 2 more games to come today.  Here are the eliminations for the next game:

Alamo Bowl:

If Kansas State wins:

Adam E. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

CBS Hinnen is eliminated from 1st & 2nd place contention.

Damien R. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.

If UCLA wins:

Brent E. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Carl B. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Chad C. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Mike W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Ryan W. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.

Good luck!!!!