Before the Rose Bowl

I mentioned yesterday that there would be combinations of games that would cause teams to be eliminated, and so here are the teams that knocked the respective sheets out of contention:

Auburn loss:

Andrew O. (3rd)

Brent S. #2 (3rd)

Brett W. (3rd)

Bruce G. (1st)

Chad L. (1st)

Dave M. (1st)

Dylan B. (3rd)

Hal R. #2 (2nd)

Hal R. #3 (1st, 2nd)

Jay H. #1 (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Lance L. (2nd)

Mandi A. (2nd)

Michelle L. #1 (2nd, 3rd)

The Citrus Bowl started after the Cotton Bowl, but finished first, so technically, Minnesota losing knocked these sheets out:

Ben W. (2nd, 3rd)

Brent E. #1 (1st)

Brent E. #2 (1st)

Bruce G. (2nd, 3rd)

Chad L. (2nd, 3rd)

Dave M. (2nd, 3rd)

Marc R. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

Scott H. #1 (2nd)

Tim N. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

...and finally, the loss by Baylor in the Cotton Bowl:

Brent S. #1 (1st)

Carl B. (1st)

Hal R. #1 (1st, 2nd)

Hal R. #2 (3rd)

Hal R. #3 (3rd)

Hutch H. #1 (1st)

Lance L. (3rd)

Mandi A. (3rd)

Mark N. #1 (3rd)

Mike S. (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

That leaves 30 people eliminated entirely from the pool, and 26 people left over for the top 3 spots.

Here are the points rankings:

1. Ray R.: 406 (-216)

2. Mark N. #2: 391 (-158)

3. CBS Hinnen: 391 (-227)

4. Daniel D.: 379 (-199)

5. CBS Fornelli: 379 (-201)

6. Adam E.: 373 (-211)

7. Chad C.: 371 (-110)

8. Hal R. #1: 370 (-242)

9. Hal R. #3: 367 (-262)

10. Mike W.: 366 (-237)

11. Ryan W.: 363 (-215)

12. Hal R. #2: 356 (-256)

13. Brent E. #1: 355 (-198)

14. Hutch H. #1: 353 (-226)

15. Ryan G.: 348 (-219)

16. Damien R. #2: 344 (-277)

17. Scott H. #2: 341 (-192)

18. Sarah G.: 338 (-222)

19. Brent E. #2: 337 (-216)

20. Damien R. #1: 336 (-199)

21. Dustin B.: 334 (-199)

22. Scott H. #1: 334 (-237)

23. Andrew O.: 334 (-302)

24. Kevin W.: 333 (-217)

25. Brent S. #1: 333 (-248)

26. Pete J. #2: 333 (-249)

26. Pete J. #1: 333 (-249)

28. Brent S. #2: 331 (-231)

29. Amos W.: 331 (-256)

30. Hutch H. #2: 330 (-234)

31. Marc R.: 330 (-265)

32. Ally H.: 330 (-316)

33. Mike S.: 329 (-236)

34. Brett W.: 329 (-283)

35. Carl B.: 328 (-209)

36. Mark N. #1: 326 (-235)

37. Becky H.: 326 (-293)

38. Matt N.: 325 (-258)

39. Michelle L. #2: 321 (-233)

40. Klei R.: 321 (-298)

41. Jim W.: 316 (-308)

42. Lance L.: 315 (-250)

43. Andrew D.: 300 (-299)

44. Presley J.: 298 (-304)

45. Chad L.: 297 (-262)

46. Michelle L. #1: 292 (-261)

47. Ben W.: 291 (-313)

48. Dave M.: 287 (-249)

49. Bruce G.: 284 (-337)

50. Mandi A.: 281 (-292)

51. Brad R.: 265 (-274)

52. Tim N.: 265 (-311)

53. Jay H. #2: 241 (-261)

54. Dylan B.: 229 (-261)

55. Jay H. #1: 206 (-259)

56. Sally R.: 201 (-355)

...and the net points:

1. Chad C.: 261

2. Mark N. #2: 233

3. Ray R.: 190

4. Daniel D.: 180

5. CBS Fornelli: 178

6. CBS Hinnen: 164

7. Adam E.: 162

8. Brent E. #1: 157

9. Scott H. #2: 149

10. Ryan W.: 148

11. Damien R. #1: 137

12. Dustin B.: 135

13. Mike W.: 129

13. Ryan G.: 129

15. Hal R. #1: 128

16. Hutch H. #1: 127

17. Brent E. #2: 121

18. Carl B.: 119

19. Sarah G.: 116

19. Kevin W.: 116

21. Hal R. #3: 105

22. Hal R. #2: 100

22. Brent S. #2: 100

24. Scott H. #1: 97

25. Hutch H. #2: 96

26. Mike S.: 93

27. Mark N. #1: 91

28. Michelle L. #2: 88

29. Brent S. #1: 85

30. Pete J. #2: 84

30. Pete J. #1: 84

32. Amos W.: 75

33. Damien R. #2: 67

33. Matt N.: 67

35. Marc R.: 65

35. Lance L.: 65

37. Brett W.: 46

38. Dave M.: 38

39. Chad L.: 35

40. Becky H.: 33

41. Andrew O.: 32

42. Michelle L. #1: 31

43. Klei R.: 23

44. Ally H.: 14

45. Jim W.: 8

46. Andrew D.: 1

47. Presley J.: -6

48. Brad R.: -9

49. Mandi A.: -11

50. Jay H. #2: -20

51. Ben W.: -22

52. Dylan B.: -32

53. Tim N.: -46

54. Bruce G.: -53

54. Jay H. #1: -53

56. Sally R.: -154

Here are the probabilities for winning the pool before the Rose Bowl:

1.: Chad C. (45.4752%)

2.: Mark N. #2 (27.2786%)

3.: Ryan W. (6.1523%)

4.: Ray R. (4.2154%)

5.: Dustin B. (3.4179%)

6.: Damien R. #1 (3.0761%)

7.: Adam E. (2.7343%)

8.: CBS Hinnen (2.2949%)

9.: Daniel D. (1.7578%)

10.: Scott H. #2 (1.5625%)

11.: Kevin W. (1.0253%)

12.: CBS Fornelli (0.5696%)

13.: Mike W. (0.1953%)

14.: Jay H. #2 (0.1464%)

15.: Jim W. (0.0976%)

...and the probability of winning 2nd place:

1.: Mark N. #2 (18.0989%)

2.: Chad C. (11.3606%)

3.: CBS Fornelli (10.1074%)

4.: Ray R. (8.4309%)

5.: Dustin B. (7.7636%)

6.: Ryan W. (7.5195%)

7.: Daniel D. (6.2011%)

8.: Adam E. (6.1523%)

9.: CBS Hinnen (5.6152%)

10.: Brent E. #1 (4.541%)

11.: Scott H. #2 (3.2714%)

12.: Damien R. #1 (2.9785%)

13.: Kevin W. (2.6367%)

14.: Mike W. (2.4902%)

15.: Carl B. (0.9277%)

15.: Hutch H. #1 (0.9277%)

17.: Jay H. #2 (0.4394%)

18.: Brent E. #2 (0.2441%)

19.: Ryan G. (0.1953%)

20.: Brent S. #1 (0.0976%)

...and the probabilities for 3rd place:

1.: Mark N. #2 (12.5325%)

2.: Ray R. (10.1399%)

3.: Daniel D. (8.0566%)

4.: CBS Fornelli (8.0566%)

5.: Chad C. (7.845%)

6.: Dustin B. (7.5683%)

7.: CBS Hinnen (6.0058%)

7.: Ryan W. (6.0058%)

9.: Adam E. (5.6152%)

9.: Brent E. #1 (5.6152%)

11.: Scott H. #2 (4.3457%)

12.: Damien R. #1 (3.955%)

13.: Mike W. (3.7597%)

14.: Carl B. (2.5878%)

15.: Kevin W. (2.0019%)

16.: Brent E. #2 (1.7578%)

17.: Hal R. #1 (1.416%)

18.: Hutch H. #1 (1.0742%)

19.: Ryan G. (0.4882%)

19.: Jay H. #2 (0.4882%)

21.: Michelle L. #2 (0.1953%)

22.: Scott H. #1 (0.1464%)

23.: Brent S. #1 (0.0976%)

23.: Pete J. #1 (0.0976%)

23.: Jim W. (0.0976%)

26.: Sarah G. (0.0488%)

But there's a Rose Bowl to play.  Here are the eliminations if each team wins:

If Oregon Wins:

      Hal R. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

      Jim W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

If Florida State wins:

Brent E. #2 is eliminated from 2nd place contention. Brent S. #1 is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention. Carl B. is eliminated from 2nd place contention.   Daniel D. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Jim W. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   Kevin W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Michelle L. #2 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   Mike W. is eliminated from 1st place contention.   Pete J. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   Ryan G. is eliminated from 2nd & 3rd place contention.   Sarah G. is eliminated from 3rd place contention.   Scott H. #1 is eliminated from 3rd place contention.

Scott H. #2 is eliminated from 1st place contention.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!