After Christmas and Hawaii Bowl

I hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas.  I had a really good one with my family.  Part of that is driving around the neighborhoods Christmas Eve and looking at all the houses that have decorated with Christmas lights and lawn decorations and the whole nine.  It’s usually a highlight of the holiday.  This year, we were watching the Hawaii Bowl while we wrapped presents.  With about 4 minutes to go, BYU was up and they had the ball on 3^rd and long.  If Hawaii stopped them, they should have a chance to get the ball back and win the game.  If BYU got a first down, they should be able to run out the clock and win.  Well, BYU ran the ball for a first down.  After seeing that, my wife and I decided to take off and see the decorations.

Imagine our surprise when we came home and my brother told us that Hawaii had actually won the game!  Sounds like we missed a pretty thrilling final 5 minutes of the game.  I think there’s a lesson in there somewhere about leaving early.  I’m usually a completist, especially if I have bought a ticket.  It’s a little more fluid when I’m watching something on TV.

So, that was technically our 4^th “upset” of the bowl season.  Remember that BYU was a 1.5 point favorite.  I put “upset” in quotes because more people took Hawaii than took BYU in this game.  More on that later.  For now, here are the updated rankings.

1. Klei R.: 222 (-54)

2. Brett W.: 181 (-100)

3. Harrell R. #2: 177 (-15)

4. Dave M.: 162 (-59)

5. Pete J. #1: 155 (-71)

5. Pete J. #2: 155 (-71)

7. Andrew D.: 154 (-102)

8. Scott Herd. #2: 153 (-86)

9. Max W. #2: 152 (-46)

10. Josiah T. #2: 149 (-52)

11. Dylan B.: 149 (-104)

12. Jim W.: 148 (-60)

13. Matt N.: 148 (-90)

14. Harrell R. #1: 147 (-38)

15. Greg McE. - ESPN: 147 (-114)

16. Pete J. #3: 146 (-80)

17. Brent S.: 144 (-81)

18. Jason S.: 144 (-113)

19. Brad R.: 142 (-80)

20. Josiah T. #1: 141 (-64)

21. Matt M.: 140 (-14)

22. Andrzej #1: 140 (-98)

23. Andrzej #2: 139 (-99)

24. Michelle L. #1: 137 (-72)

25. James P.: 133 (-109)

26. Jonathan J.: 132 (-41)

27. Ben W.: 131 (-83)

28. Brian K.: 131 (-88)

29. Grant F.: 130 (-34)

30. Marc R.: 130 (-64)

31. Hutch H.: 129 (-78)

32. Ryan W.: 127 (-58)

33. Damien R. #1: 125 (-84)

34. Jay H. #1: 122 (-83)

35. Peter F.: 119 (-87)

36. Kirt R.: 118 (-114)

37. Michelle L. #2: 115 (-94)

38. Nikki W.: 113 (-57)

39. Mason A.: 113 (-74)

40. Jay H. #2: 112 (-93)

41. Mike S.: 107 (-52)

42. Mike W.: 107 (-70)

43. Scott Has. #1: 107 (-116)

44. Cory R.: 107 (-136)

45. Mike N.: 106 (-56)

46. Tim N.: 104 (-19)

47. Adam E.: 104 (-61)

48. Ryan G.: 104 (-91)

49. Shawn M.: 102 (-45)

50. Damien R. #2: 100 (-121)

51. Dustin B.: 99 (-74)

52. Max A. #2: 98 (-34)

53. Scott Herd. #1: 96 (-123)

54. Bryan G.: 95 (-26)

55. Josiah T. #3: 94 (-84)

56. Emily T.: 93 (-123)

57. Becky H.: 92 (-56)

58. Dan Du.: 87 (-104)

59. Ally H.: 86 (-139)

60. Rich P.: 84 (-76)

61. Steve Dz.: 72 (-156)

62. Scott Has. #2: 70 (-79)

63. Mike Smith: 65 (-71)

64. Nick B.: 63 (-3)

65. Jaxon S.: 62 (-36)

66. Max A. #1: 50 (-82)

67. Max W. #1: 49 (-17)

68. Nichole W.: 26 (-63)

…and the net points rankings:

1. Klei R.: 168 (Clemson)

2. Harrell R. #2: 162 (LSU)

3. Matt M.: 126 (Clemson)

4. Harrell R. #1: 109 (LSU)

5. Max W. #2: 106 (LSU)

6. Dave M.: 103 (LSU)

7. Josiah T. #2: 97 (Clemson)

8. Grant F.: 96 (LSU)

9. Jonathan J.: 91 (LSU)

10. Jim W.: 88 (LSU)

11. Tim N.: 85 (Ohio State)

12. Pete J. #1: 84 (LSU)

12. Pete J. #2: 84 (LSU)

14. Brett W.: 81 (LSU)

15. Josiah T. #1: 77 (LSU)

16. Ryan W.: 69 (LSU)

16. Bryan G.: 69 (Clemson)

18. Scott Herd. #2: 67 (LSU)

19. Pete J. #3: 66 (Clemson)

19. Marc R.: 66 (Clemson)

21. Michelle L. #1: 65 (LSU)

22. Max A. #2: 64 (Clemson)

23. Brent S.: 63 (LSU)

24. Brad R.: 62 (LSU)

25. Nick B.: 60 (LSU)

26. Matt N.: 58 (Clemson)

27. Shawn M.: 57 (Ohio State)

28. Nikki W.: 56 (Ohio State)

29. Mike S.: 55 (LSU)

30. Andrew D.: 52 (Ohio State)

31. Hutch H.: 51 (LSU)

32. Mike N.: 50 (Ohio State)

33. Ben W.: 48 (LSU)

34. Dylan B.: 45 (LSU)

35. Brian K.: 43 (LSU)

35. Adam E.: 43 (Clemson)

37. Andrzej #1: 42 (LSU)

38. Damien R. #1: 41 (LSU)

39. Andrzej #2: 40 (LSU)

40. Jay H. #1: 39 (LSU)

40. Mason A.: 39 (LSU)

42. Mike W.: 37 (Ohio State)

43. Becky H.: 36 (LSU)

44. Greg McE. - ESPN: 33 (LSU)

45. Peter F.: 32 (Ohio State)

45. Max W. #1: 32 (Ohio State)

47. Jason S.: 31 (Ohio State)

48. Jaxon S.: 26 (LSU)

49. Dustin B.: 25 (Ohio State)

50. James P.: 24 (LSU)

51. Michelle L. #2: 21 (Clemson)

52. Jay H. #2: 19 (Ohio State)

53. Ryan G.: 13 (LSU)

54. Josiah T. #3: 10 (Ohio State)

55. Rich P.: 8 (Ohio State)

56. Kirt R.: 4 (Clemson)

57. Mike Smith: -6 (Clemson)

58. Scott Has. #1: -9 (LSU)

58. Scott Has. #2: -9 (LSU)

60. Dan Du.: -17 (Clemson)

61. Damien R. #2: -21 (LSU)

62. Scott Herd. #1: -27 (LSU)

63. Cory R.: -29 (Ohio State)

64. Emily T.: -30 (LSU)

65. Max A. #1: -32 (Clemson)

66. Nichole W.: -37 (Ohio State)

67. Ally H.: -53 (Ohio State)

68. Steve Dz.: -84 (Oklahoma)

A few things that I noticed about the rankings.  I noticed that Pete J. #1 and Pete J. #2 have exactly the same score (total & net points).  I went to see if I entered them wrong, and for them having the exact same score, Pete J. #1 has actually won one more game than Pete J. #2.  The way this is possible is because on 3 games, he took the same points, but flipped the winner.  On one sheet, he won a 13 pt. game and 1 pt. game, but lost a 14 point game.  On the other sheet, it was exactly the opposite.  Strange scoring, but accurate.  Also, something that I seem to do every season is enter someone that is an “expert”.  In the March Madness, I always enter Seth Davis, and he always does atrociously.  This years talking head pinata is Greg McElroy.  I saw him on a 2-hour long college bowl confidence picking show.  He is currently in 15^th in total points, which seems respectable, but he’s 44^th in net points.  I’ll be shocked if he finishes anywhere close to the money.  The lesson, as always, is that knowing more about college football or basketball is no guarantee that you’ll win or even do well in these pools.

We’ve had a pretty compressed schedule, and we are back at again tomorrow.  We have 2 games which mercifully don’t overlap.  Not sure how many of you have the day off, but if you do, maybe check them out.

The first game is the Independence Bowl.

Vegas Line: Miami-Florida -6

Picks for Miami-Florida: 25 (13.00 points average)

Picks for Louisiana Tech: 43 (16.26 point average)

Median Pick: Louisiana Tech for 8 points.

This one is very strange.  There were 8 games this season where the favorite by Vegas line was in the minority of the picks.  For a game like Hawaii playing in Hawaii, where the line wasn’t that high, you can kind of see that.  This one is a more extreme example (although not the biggest point spread we will see for this phenomena).  My only guess about this one, given that Louisiana Tech is almost a TD underdog is that it was similar to Hawaii.  They are essentially playing a home game against a team that people don’t think is all that great.  At least that’s why I went for Louisiana Tech.  I’m especially impressed with the 3 people that had Louisiana Tech in their top 10 (Marc R., Mike Smith, Scott Herd. #2).  No one has Miami-Florida in their top 10.  I guess we’ll just have to see if the masses are smarter than Vegas.  Honestly, the majority has only been right 6/11 times, and 2 of those were 14+ point spreads.  That helps with the point totals.  Otherwise, we’d probably have a lot more people in the negative net point numbers.

The last game of the day is a little more typical.

Quick Lane Bowl

Vegas Line: Pittsburgh -12

Picks for Pittsburgh: 59 (27.80 points average)

Picks for Eastern Michigan: 9 (14.11 points average)

Median pick: Pittsburgh for 29 points.

This is one of those games that used to be called the Motor City Bowl or something similar.  Then the sponsor just decided to do away with all pretense and change the name of the bowl to the name of the sponsor.  I decided to look up what the trophy looked like.  I was afraid that is was shaped like a quart of motor oil or some other garbage.  Turns out it looks like this:

I think those are supposed to be stacked tires under the football.  Meh.  Not too bad.  It could’ve been worse.  Anyway, this one promises to look not so great on paper.  This will be the game with the third highest points wagered on it (#10 overall).  Pittsburgh has the 9^th most points wagered on it.  32 people have them in their own top 10.  Props to Tim N., who is one brave soul willing to risk a top 10 spot on the Eagles (formerly the Hurons).  He has them for 35 points.  Bet big / win big, right?  That’s what they tell you at the casino.

Good luck everyone!!!!!