Bowl Pool 2019 - 5 more games down

I have to admit, today was a looooong day of football.  I worked this morning, but I watched games more or less from the time I got home until just now, when the Cheez-It Bowl finished.  Based on the Vegas lines, there were zero upsets today.  I would not have guessed that going into today, since every game had a point spread of less that 5 points and many lower than 3 points.  But, chalk it was.  That didn’t exactly translate into a ton of points for a few reasons.  One, at least two of those games had us picking the underdog more than the favorite.  Two, because the lines were so small, not a lot of people put a lot of points on them.  If you did and you won, congratulations!  If you bet big today and lost, better luck tomorrow.

Nobody went winless today, which is good to see.  There was no double digit favorite that everyone took like there is some days, so no one going 0/5 means that people picked some winners as opposed to going for the obvious choices.  6 people managed to go 5/5 today, which is pretty decent, except for the aforementioned fact that is was all chalk.  Takes a little luster off that accomplishment, although it’s still really good.  As a group, we won 2.93 games a piece, for 50.34 points.  We also lost 32.40 points, so mostly positive.  The big winners in net points today were:

5. Jim W. (+81) 12^th place up to 4^th in net points.

4. Emily T. (+84)  64^th place up to 38^th.

3. Hutch H. (+85)  36^th place up to 11^th.

2. Kirt R. (+86)  41^st place up to 15^th.

1. James P. (+87) 51^st place up to 18^th.

Great day for those entries.  Sadly, the biggest losers on the day were:

5T.  Andrzej #1 & Andrzej #2 (-40)  21^st & 23^rd down to 48^th & 49^th.

3T. Nick B. (-44)  40^th place to 62^nd.

3T. Max W. #1 (-44)  43^rd place to 63^rd.

2. Max W. #2 (-75)  3^rd place to 36^th.

1. Dan Du. (-86)  62^nd place to 67^th.

Ouch.   Way to swing for the fences, Dan Du.  When you start the day in 62^nd place, it seems totally reasonable to me that a big effort is in order, even if it doesn’t quite work.

So, there was lots of movement today, although the top remains similar to yesterday.  It still looks like I’m running away with it, but there were some points today where I dropped to #2 in net points, and I’ve also used 46% of all available points.  I’ve still got a lot of competition to beat before this thing is over.

Here are the raw points standings:

1. Klei R.: 321 (-70)

2. Marc R.: 274 (-93)

3. Harrell R. #2: 270 (-23)

4. James P.: 267 (-138)

5. Brett W.: 266 (-109)

6. Jim W.: 262 (-60)

7. Matt N.: 261 (-111)

8. Kirt R.: 258 (-114)

9. Hutch H.: 250 (-98)

10. Grant F.: 249 (-44)

11. Jason S.: 246 (-185)

12. Michelle L. #1: 243 (-92)

13. Scott Herd. #2: 242 (-126)

14. Josiah T. #1: 240 (-108)

15. Pete J. #1: 239 (-76)

16. Peter F.: 239 (-87)

17. Pete J. #2: 236 (-79)

18. Harrell R. #1: 235 (-47)

19. Josiah T. #2: 234 (-80)

20. Ben W.: 231 (-97)

21. Dylan B.: 230 (-130)

22. Damien R. #2: 228 (-167)

23. Max W. #2: 224 (-140)

24. Brent S.: 222 (-105)

25. Dave M.: 221 (-106)

26. Pete J. #3: 220 (-95)

27. Andrew D.: 219 (-158)

28. Andrzej #1: 217 (-161)

29. Brad R.: 216 (-119)

30. Andrzej #2: 216 (-162)

31. Mike S.: 214 (-92)

32. Emily T.: 213 (-136)

33. Michelle L. #2: 211 (-124)

34. Mason A.: 208 (-98)

35. Shawn M.: 205 (-81)

36. Damien R. #1: 202 (-136)

37. Brian K.: 201 (-119)

38. Greg McE. - ESPN: 201 (-151)

39. Matt M.: 200 (-97)

40. Mike W.: 200 (-98)

41. Tim N.: 200 (-128)

42. Max A. #1: 196 (-154)

42. Max A. #2: 196 (-154)

44. Scott Herd. #1: 196 (-159)

45. Mike N.: 195 (-70)

46. Ryan W.: 191 (-69)

47. Josiah T. #3: 188 (-120)

48. Jonathan J.: 185 (-70)

49. Scott Has. #2: 184 (-113)

50. Nikki W.: 183 (-154)

51. Mike Smith: 179 (-76)

52. Bryan G.: 178 (-90)

53. Scott Has. #1: 176 (-150)

54. Dustin B.: 170 (-95)

55. Ryan G.: 170 (-150)

56. Rich P.: 165 (-123)

57. Adam E.: 162 (-100)

58. Ally H.: 154 (-162)

59. Cory R.: 152 (-186)

60. Jay H. #1: 145 (-115)

61. Jay H. #2: 144 (-116)

62. Becky H.: 144 (-122)

63. Dan Du.: 132 (-202)

64. Jaxon S.: 130 (-98)

65. Steve Dz.: 109 (-192)

66. Nichole W.: 103 (-135)

67. Nick B.: 93 (-78)

68. Max W. #1: 92 (-79)

…and the net points standings:

1. Klei R.: 251 (Clemson)

2. Harrell R. #2: 247 (LSU)

3. Grant F.: 205 (LSU)

4. Jim W.: 202 (LSU)

5. Harrell R. #1: 188 (LSU)

6. Marc R.: 181 (Clemson)

7. Pete J. #1: 163 (LSU)

8. Brett W.: 157 (LSU)

8. Pete J. #2: 157 (LSU)

10. Josiah T. #2: 154 (Clemson)

11. Hutch H.: 152 (LSU)

11. Peter F.: 152 (Ohio State)

13. Michelle L. #1: 151 (LSU)

14. Matt N.: 150 (Clemson)

15. Kirt R.: 144 (Clemson)

16. Ben W.: 134 (LSU)

17. Josiah T. #1: 132 (LSU)

18. James P.: 129 (LSU)

19. Pete J. #3: 125 (Clemson)

19. Mike N.: 125 (Ohio State)

21. Shawn M.: 124 (Ohio State)

22. Mike S.: 122 (LSU)

22. Ryan W.: 122 (LSU)

24. Brent S.: 117 (LSU)

25. Scott Herd. #2: 116 (LSU)

26. Dave M.: 115 (LSU)

26. Jonathan J.: 115 (LSU)

28. Mason A.: 110 (LSU)

29. Matt M.: 103 (Clemson)

29. Mike Smith: 103 (Clemson)

31. Mike W.: 102 (Ohio State)

32. Dylan B.: 100 (LSU)

33. Brad R.: 97 (LSU)

34. Bryan G.: 88 (Clemson)

35. Michelle L. #2: 87 (Clemson)

36. Max W. #2: 84 (LSU)

37. Brian K.: 82 (LSU)

38. Emily T.: 77 (LSU)

39. Dustin B.: 75 (Ohio State)

40. Tim N.: 72 (Ohio State)

41. Scott Has. #2: 71 (LSU)

42. Josiah T. #3: 68 (Ohio State)

43. Damien R. #1: 66 (LSU)

44. Adam E.: 62 (Clemson)

45. Jason S.: 61 (Ohio State)

45. Damien R. #2: 61 (LSU)

45. Andrew D.: 61 (Ohio State)

48. Andrzej #1: 56 (LSU)

49. Andrzej #2: 54 (LSU)

50. Greg McE. - ESPN: 50 (LSU)

51. Max A. #1: 42 (Clemson)

51. Max A. #2: 42 (Clemson)

51. Rich P.: 42 (Ohio State)

54. Scott Herd. #1: 37 (LSU)

55. Jaxon S.: 32 (LSU)

56. Jay H. #1: 30 (LSU)

57. Nikki W.: 29 (Ohio State)

58. Jay H. #2: 28 (Ohio State)

59. Scott Has. #1: 26 (LSU)

60. Becky H.: 22 (LSU)

61. Ryan G.: 20 (LSU)

62. Nick B.: 15 (LSU)

63. Max W. #1: 13 (Ohio State)

64. Ally H.: -8 (Ohio State)

65. Nichole W.: -32 (Ohio State)

66. Cory R.: -34 (Ohio State)

67. Dan Du.: -70 (Clemson)

68. Steve Dz.: -83 (Oklahoma)

I color coded the people that have paid for their entries.  Please make sure you take care of that ASAP if your name is not in red.  Thanks!!!

There are 4 more games tomorrow, including two of the biggest games of the season – the National Championship semi-final games.  We’ll get to those.  First:

Camping World Bowl

Vegas Line: Notre Dame -3.5

Picks for Notre Dame: 55 (28.75 points average)

Picks for Iowa State: 13 (7.62 points average)

Median pick: Notre Dame for 23 points.

We clearly don’t trust the oddsmakers on this one.  3.5 points is not that much, yet everyone seemed to jump all over the University of Football in America.  This is the most misaligned game in terms of picks vs Vegas of the day.  It also among the top half dozen games like this.  We’ve had two games that were further out of whack.  In one, we got it right with Michigan State.  The other was Oklahoma State, which we got wrong as a group.  I took Iowa State for 11, so I’m obviously rooting for a specific outcome.

Cotton Bowl:

Vegas Line: Penn State -7

Penn State picks: 59 (26.03 points average)

Memphis picks: 9 (19.11 points average)

Median pick: Penn State for 26 points.

I believe this now officially called “The Cotton Bowl Classic brought to you by AT&T” or some other such nonsense.  A few years back, the Bowl committee generously decided that they needed to make a slot for the highest ranked non-power 5 conference team to play in one of the top 6 bowl games.  This season, Memphis gets to be that underdog.  I don’t think that these teams have a particularly good track record of actually winning these games, with the exception of Boise State a few times.  I remember when Western Michigan played Wisconsin a few years ago in this game.  I also remember an undefeated Hawaii team playing once and getting clobbered.  I fear a similar fate awaits Memphis, but for the 4 people that took Memphis for 20+ points, it’ll be a real Hail Mary.  Good luck on that…..

Peach Bowl

Vegas Line: LSU -14

Picks for LSU: 62 (33.94 points average)

Picks for Oklahoma: 6 (15.67 points average)

Median pick: LSU for 36

If my understanding is correct, this game was supposed to be the late game, but it got bumped to an earlier time slot to make way for the Fiesta Bowl.  I am guessing that’s because this game looks terrible on paper.  LSU is the #1 seed in the Final Four, and Oklahoma suspended some of their players for this game.  That’s not a good design if you are going to pull an upset.  Then again, one of the first years they had these games, Ohio State won it all from the #4 spot.  It can be done.  It seems pretty unlikely that it will happen this year, but at least they have a shot.  Oklahoma has a better chance to win the Championship than Alabama, right?  At least they are in the game.  As I look at Oklahoma, they had the 79^th most points and the 84^th most points wagered on them.  79^th for this game and dead last for the Championship game, as only one person picked them to win it all.  Shrewd move, Steve Dz., shrewd move…..

Fiesta Bowl:

Vegas Line: Clemson -2.5

Picks for Clemson: 34 (11.97 points average)

Picks for Ohio State: 34 (15.91 points average)

Median: 0

I believe this is the only game we have that is an even split on the picks.  That probably explains why, despite this being a game between the #2 and #3 teams in the country, it has the 4^th lowest amount of points wagered on it.  There are much bigger consequences than just winning this game, as everyone should know.  30 people have either Clemson or Ohio State winning it all.  That means that if you lose this game, you are losing an additional 30 points later on.  That makes this one really, really important for a good chunk of people.  It promises to be a really good game.  Let’s hope it lives up to the hype.

That’s it for me tonight.  I’ve been having fun with these games.  Of course, it’s more fun when you are near the top of the standings, so I’ll enjoy it while I can.  Good luck to everyone tomorrow!!!