Boxing Day Update

There’s a phenomena in statistics called “The Wisdom of the Crowds”.  What typically happens is that someone is trying to prove that this exists, so they take a giant cow to the fair or a giant glass vase filled with marbles, and then they get people at the fair to try to guess how much the cow weighs or how many marbles are in the jar.  It’s always something that no one could possibly know.  Over the course of a day, the researcher gathers data, and almost without fail, the average of all the picks is within about 5% of the actual number.  I feel like we saw something like that today.  Miami-Florida was favored by almost a TD in the first game, but we, as a group decided we would pick the game as if Louisiana Tech was the favorite.  Something in our collective subconscious maybe made us decide that the odds didn’t make sense, and we bet, as a group, appropriately.  This obviously isn’t always true.  After all, we did a terrible job picking Kent State to win the Frisco Bowl, but it’s a convenient story to tell about why we did good today.

And we did pretty good.  Both of the teams that won today were the majority pick.  The average sheet today won 1.5 games.  Also, because people took Pitt for a ton of points, most of us picked up a bunch of points.  Actually, only 8 people finished with a net negative point total for the day.  The big winner was Marc R. who picked up a whopping 70 points over the course of 2 games today.  That’s some really good picking and some really good point allocation.  That was good enough to move him from 19^th in net points all the way up to 6^th.

OK, there’s a lot of bowl games tomorrow, so here are the updated point standings:

1. Klei R.: 268 (-54)

2. Harrell R. #2: 215 (-15)

3. Scott Herd. #2: 214 (-86)

4. Brett W.: 210 (-109)

5. Max W. #2: 205 (-46)

6. Matt N.: 202 (-90)

7. Marc R.: 200 (-64)

8. Dave M.: 197 (-70)

9. Andrzej #1: 194 (-98)

10. Pete J. #1: 193 (-71)

10. Pete J. #2: 193 (-71)

12. Andrzej #2: 193 (-99)

13. Harrell R. #1: 185 (-38)

14. Josiah T. #2: 184 (-52)

15. Pete J. #3: 184 (-80)

16. Brian K.: 184 (-88)

17. Jason S.: 184 (-138)

18. Michelle L. #1: 182 (-72)

19. Jim W.: 181 (-60)

20. Dylan B.: 181 (-106)

21. Andrew D.: 180 (-106)

22. Greg McE. - ESPN: 178 (-116)

23. Brad R.: 177 (-88)

24. Brent S.: 176 (-86)

25. Grant F.: 175 (-34)

26. Josiah T. #1: 173 (-76)

27. Ben W.: 172 (-83)

28. Kirt R.: 172 (-114)

29. Hutch H.: 165 (-98)

30. Scott Has. #1: 164 (-116)

31. Peter F.: 163 (-87)

32. Shawn M.: 161 (-45)

33. Jonathan J.: 160 (-48)

34. James P.: 160 (-118)

35. Damien R. #2: 157 (-121)

36. Michelle L. #2: 150 (-114)

37. Adam E.: 149 (-61)

38. Nikki W.: 149 (-82)

39. Matt M.: 148 (-33)

40. Ryan G.: 147 (-91)

41. Ryan W.: 145 (-58)

42. Dustin B.: 144 (-74)

43. Damien R. #1: 144 (-89)

44. Scott Herd. #1: 144 (-123)

45. Cory R.: 143 (-165)

46. Mason A.: 142 (-91)

47. Mike S.: 139 (-68)

48. Mike W.: 139 (-70)

49. Jay H. #1: 132 (-87)

50. Emily T.: 129 (-136)

51. Josiah T. #3: 127 (-84)

52. Mike N.: 125 (-56)

53. Max A. #2: 122 (-60)

54. Dan Du.: 120 (-104)

55. Jay H. #2: 116 (-103)

56. Rich P.: 113 (-79)

57. Scott Has. #2: 112 (-79)

58. Ally H.: 109 (-157)

59. Bryan G.: 107 (-49)

60. Tim N.: 104 (-64)

61. Mike Smith: 103 (-71)

62. Max A. #1: 100 (-82)

63. Becky H.: 92 (-67)

64. Steve Dz.: 79 (-162)

65. Jaxon S.: 77 (-50)

66. Nick B.: 75 (-16)

67. Max W. #1: 74 (-17)

68. Nichole W.: 39 (-84)

…and the updated net points standings:

1. Klei R.: 214 (Clemson)

2. Harrell R. #2: 200 (LSU)

3. Max W. #2: 159 (LSU)

4. Harrell R. #1: 147 (LSU)

5. Grant F.: 141 (LSU)

6. Marc R.: 136 (Clemson)

7. Josiah T. #2: 132 (Clemson)

8. Scott Herd. #2: 128 (LSU)

9. Dave M.: 127 (LSU)

10. Pete J. #1: 122 (LSU)

10. Pete J. #2: 122 (LSU)

12. Jim W.: 121 (LSU)

13. Shawn M.: 116 (Ohio State)

14. Matt M.: 115 (Clemson)

15. Matt N.: 112 (Clemson)

15. Jonathan J.: 112 (LSU)

17. Michelle L. #1: 110 (LSU)

18. Pete J. #3: 104 (Clemson)

19. Brett W.: 101 (LSU)

20. Josiah T. #1: 97 (LSU)

21. Andrzej #1: 96 (LSU)

21. Brian K.: 96 (LSU)

23. Andrzej #2: 94 (LSU)

24. Brent S.: 90 (LSU)

25. Brad R.: 89 (LSU)

25. Ben W.: 89 (LSU)

27. Adam E.: 88 (Clemson)

28. Ryan W.: 87 (LSU)

29. Peter F.: 76 (Ohio State)

30. Dylan B.: 75 (LSU)

31. Andrew D.: 74 (Ohio State)

32. Mike S.: 71 (LSU)

33. Dustin B.: 70 (Ohio State)

34. Mike W.: 69 (Ohio State)

34. Mike N.: 69 (Ohio State)

36. Hutch H.: 67 (LSU)

36. Nikki W.: 67 (Ohio State)

38. Greg McE. - ESPN: 62 (LSU)

38. Max A. #2: 62 (Clemson)

40. Nick B.: 59 (LSU)

41. Kirt R.: 58 (Clemson)

41. Bryan G.: 58 (Clemson)

43. Max W. #1: 57 (Ohio State)

44. Ryan G.: 56 (LSU)

45. Damien R. #1: 55 (LSU)

46. Mason A.: 51 (LSU)

47. Scott Has. #1: 48 (LSU)

48. Jason S.: 46 (Ohio State)

49. Jay H. #1: 45 (LSU)

50. Josiah T. #3: 43 (Ohio State)

51. James P.: 42 (LSU)

52. Tim N.: 40 (Ohio State)

53. Damien R. #2: 36 (LSU)

53. Michelle L. #2: 36 (Clemson)

55. Rich P.: 34 (Ohio State)

56. Scott Has. #2: 33 (LSU)

57. Mike Smith: 32 (Clemson)

58. Jaxon S.: 27 (LSU)

59. Becky H.: 25 (LSU)

60. Scott Herd. #1: 21 (LSU)

61. Max A. #1: 18 (Clemson)

62. Dan Du.: 16 (Clemson)

63. Jay H. #2: 13 (Ohio State)

64. Emily T.: -7 (LSU)

65. Cory R.: -22 (Ohio State)

66. Nichole W.: -45 (Ohio State)

67. Ally H.: -48 (Ohio State)

68. Steve Dz.: -83 (Oklahoma)

It kind of looks like I’m amassing a pretty decent sized lead along with Harrel R. #2.  I would caution anyone to look at how many points I have used so far.  I am currently tied with Jason S. for most points used with 322.  At some point, all the other games that people have that are worth a lot will start being played, and people will get back into this thing.  Nothing is worth panicking over just yet.  Even after tomorrow’s 5 games, we won’t even be half way done with the games to be played.  There’s plenty of time.

Speaking of which, there are 5, yes, 5 games tomorrow.  Some of them even feature ranked teams.  Some of them feature 6-6 teams from power conferences that only alumni could care about, but that’s the mix you get with these things.

The first game is the latter:

Military Bowl

Vegas Line: North Carolina -5

North Carolina picks: 46 (16.67 points average)

Temple: 22 (12.50 points average)

Median: North Carolina for 9.

I feel like this would be a pretty good college basketball game, circa 1986.  Now it’s just another bowl game being played in scenic Anapolis, Maryland.  I guess that makes sense for the Military theme, but as far as places to go for a Bowl game, this has to be bottom five, right?  I mean Boise is by far the worst.  Detroit, I think, is second, but then Anapolis can’t be too far behind.  I guess Baltimore and Washington DC aren’t too far away, but is there anything else in Anapolis except for the US Naval Academy?  I suppose I could find out if I watched this game, but my guess is that I’ll be at work during it’s entirety. It’s the 34^th ranked bowl in points wagered and only 3 people have anybody in it in their top 10.  Seems like maybe a light way to wade into all the games tomorrow.

The Pinstripe Bowl

Vegas Line: Michigan State -4

Michigan State picks: 33 (16.30 points average)

Wake Forest picks: 35 (15.34 points average)

Median pick: Wake Forest for 2 points

That’s about as normal a curve as you ever get with these games.  These picks are all over the place, which is a little surprising, since it seems like a carbon copy of the Military Bowl in terms of the records of the teams.  This game is another not so important game to get us started on the day.  This one comes in only one spot above the Military Bowl at 33^rd in points wagered.  It also is another one of those games where the Vegas line and the pick distribution are misaligned.  Michigan State is the Vegas favorite, but slightly more people took Wake Forest.  So far, we are 2-2 on picking those kinds of games.  We blew it on Boise State and Alcorn State, but nailed Hawaii and Louisiana Tech.  We’ll have another shot at this kind of game again later today.

Texas Bowl

Vegas Line: Texas A&M -5.5

Texas A&M picks: 33 (20.24 points average)

Oklahoma State picks: 35 (16.26 points average)

Median pick: Oklahoma State for 1.5 points

Speak of the devil!  Here’s the other game today that went the opposite of the Vegas line.  This one makes a little less sense to me.  Hawaii was playing in Hawaii.  Louisiana Tech was playing in Louisiana.  The Texas Bowl is obviously being played in Texas by Texas A&M – and they are the favorite.  It seems logical that people would bet a little heavy on the Aggies, but Oklahoma State is being picked by more people.  Actually, the distribution on this game looks almost uniform across the entire number line.  For as even as this game seems to be, a lot of people went big on it.  This is the game with the most points wagered on it of the 5.  If nothing else, this game looks like it will be important to separating the field.

On a side note, I still think it’s weird to see Texas A&M playing Oklahoma State as a non-conference game.  Not sure when I’ll adjust to Texas A&M in the SEC.  Maybe never.  I’m probably dating myself by even saying this.

Holiday Bowl

Vegas Line: Iowa -2.5

Iowa Picks: 37 (14.73 points average)

USC picks: 31 (18.23 points average)

Median pick: Iowa for 1.5 points

Hey Hey!  It’s our first Bowl game to feature two ranked teams.  That’s great!  Maybe that means the game will be crisp, and it will be a good game.  Then again, it supposed to rain in San Diego, so maybe they’ll be playing in a swamp and it will be a unwatchable morass.  Who knows!!!  I have actually been to this game (I feel like more than once, although I’ve been to the now-defunct Poinsettia Bowl as well, and they were in the same stadium).  It’s usually pretty fun, although waiting to get on the trolley after the game if it’s cold and you had back spasms like I did one time is not all that exciting.  Who knows how long it will continue, since I keep hearing that they are going to tear Qualcomm down and build a soccer complex there, but I haven’t heard anything definitive about that.  Anyway, the Holiday Bowl fits in pretty nicely with the Pinstripe and Military Bowls.  Two teams playing where we couldn’t get a strong consensus pick.  I feel that because of these essentially coin flip games tomorrow, someone is going to go 5/5 and rocket up the standings.  I hope it’s me, but I bet it’s someone.

Cheez-It Bowl

Vegas Line: Air Force -2.5

Air Force picks: 50 (18.10 points average)

Washington State picks: 18 (14.28 points average)

Median pick: Air Force for 13.5

What am I missing here?  The line is only 2.5, but it looks like we are treating it like it’s almost 7.  By my calculations, Washington State has the least amount of points wagered on it all day.  Why do people either hate Washington State or love Air Force?  Is it the records? Air Force was 10-2, while Washington State was 6-6.  Seems to make some sense.  I have a feeling people might be sweating this one more than they were expecting if they loaded up on Air Force.  Time will tell, I guess.

Alright, it’s getting late, and I have to go to work tomorrow.  Enjoy the games.  We are getting closer to the time when I can calculate odds, so I’m pretty excited about that.  Good luck!!!!!